202 4 World Economic Papers August, 202 HS- 6 * 995 2004 Adams et al. 2006 995 487. 8 2009 2 06. 6. 09% 2009 5 995 9 2009 2 092. 6 2 lvarez and Claro 2007 Devlin et al. 2006 Blázquez-Lidoy et al. 2006 2009 40% 75% 43% * E-mail yongbingchen@ 63. com 82 430073 E-mail vivi030303@ 63. com E-mail lingduo_2007@ 63. com 09&ZD033 0YJC790029 354089 2
6 202 4 Xu 2007 Leamer 995 Rodrik 2006 Schott 2006 cross-product vertical differentiation within product Schott 2006 Hallak 2006 Hallak and Schott 2008 Hansen and Nielsen 2008 200 lvarez and Claro 2006a 995 2004 5 HS-6 995 2004 CEPII-BACI lvarez and Claro 2006a Leamer 987 Harrigan 997 Schott 2003 2004
202 4 7 Schott 2004 HS-0 withinproduct specialization 990 2003 44 ISIC-4 80 lvarez and Claro 2006b Schott 2004 Brooks 2006 Verhoogen 2008 Verhoogen 2008 Aw and Roberts 986 Feenstra 988 Schott 2004 Hallak 2006 Schott 2006 20 90 OECD GDP OECD Schott 2006 Hallak 2006 Hallak and Schott 2008 Hansen and Nielsen 2008 Schott 2004 980 997 45 Finger and Kreinin 979 Schott 2006 OECD 972 200 OECD OECD lvarez and Claro 2006a 0. 5% Xu 2006 Kandogan 2005 intensive margin extensive margin
8 202 4 Amiti and Freund 200 997 2005 HS-8 25% HS-0 7% 200 200 Hummels and Klenow 2005 Schott 2006 Hallak 2006 Hallak and Schott 2008 Hansen and Nielsen 2008 5 HS-6 lvarez and Claro 2006a CEPII-BACI 995 2004 2 HS-6 995 3 666 2004 4 362 3 CIF 4 2 3 4 CEPII-BACI 995 2004 HS992 5
202 4 9 995 2004 HS-6 % % 995 92 762 879. 7 3 85 44. 75. 66 5 07 4 29 82. 30 996 974 35 873. 34 899 266. 66. 77 5 005 4 083 8. 58 997 98 762 805. 00 39 725 640. 29 2. 00 4 983 4 3 82. 90 998 2 080 927 422. 87 44 85 005. 09 2. 6 4 980 4 84 84. 02 999 2 08 34 25. 93 48 73 30. 46 2. 3 4 970 4 232 85. 5 2000 2 86 789 862. 30 64 220 577. 80 2. 94 4 958 4 338 87. 49 200 2 6 737 50. 94 65 83 588. 59 3. 04 4 950 4 396 88. 8 2002 2 262 787 930. 52 72 46 48. 52 3. 9 4 927 4 369 88. 67 2003 2 684 832 760. 79 07 627 3. 80 4. 0 4 922 4 426 89. 92 2004 3 238 994 837. 05 47 56 223. 70 4. 56 4 95 4 504 9. 64 CEPII-BACI 995 3 85 44. 75 2004 47 56 223. 70 3 995. 66% 2004 4. 56%. 85% 5. 36% 995 82. 30% 9. 64% Hummels and Klenow 2005 c r ROW t c r S c r S t = M ct M rt = M cjt j N ct M rjt j N rt M ct t c N ct t c HS-6 M ct M rt t r N rt HS-6 S t = j N ct M rjt j N rt M rjt M cjt j N ct = E t I t 2 M rjt j N ct Hummels and Klenow 2005
20 202 4 E t r c r r I t c r c r c r c r c r c r c r I t I t = P t X t 3 HS-6 j c r P t = P cjt /P rjt ω jt j N ct X t = X cjt /X rjt ω jt j N ct cjt - rjt ( ln cjt - ln ) cjt - rjt rjt j N ct ln cjt - ln rjt rjt r j CEPII-BACI 0 ω jt ω jt = cjt c j c r 995 2004 HS-6 2 2 995 2004 % 995. 6583 83. 255. 998 64. 5383 3. 0863 996. 765 8. 8306 2. 527 60. 696 3. 5469 997. 9998 84. 4506 2. 3680 62. 983 3. 7598 998 2. 357 87. 8483 2. 43 63. 974 3. 8035 999 2. 3099 87. 926 2. 6275 60. 473 4. 3489 2000 2. 9698 86. 856 3. 4458 6. 5005 5. 6029 200 3. 074 85. 53 3. 6339 6. 30 5. 9444 2002 3. 2576 89. 0546 3. 6580 60. 25 6. 0840 2003 4. 385 92. 77 4. 4897 59. 623 7. 5304 2004 4. 6896 73. 9224 6. 3439 56. 7788. 730 % 82. 79 -. 2 28. 50-2. 02 262. 02 % 2. 24 -. 3 3. 74 -. 4 5. 37 CEPII-BACI 2 2004 73. 92% 995 2004 c r
202 4 2 73. 92% 6. 34% 6. 34% 56. 78%. 7% 995. 66% 2004 4. 69% 2. 24% 0. 2% 0 995. 99% 2004 6. 34% 28. 5% 3. 74% 995 2004 2 5. 37% 64. 54% 56. 78% -. 4% Amiti and Freund 200 997 2005 HS-0. 5% 995 2004
22 202 4 HS-6 HS-6 Schott 2004 HS-0 995 2004 HS-6 35 LnP jit = α jt + δ LnI it + ε jit 4 P jit t i HS-6 j / I it i t GDP δ 3 δ 0. 64 GDP 0%. 64% 4 LnP jit = α jt + δ LnI it + β CHN + ε jit 5 CHN β 3 2 CHN δ β - 0. 22 2. 2% Schott 2006 20 90 GDP 4 LnP jit = α jt + δ LnI it + β CHNa + β 2 CHNb + ε jit 6 CHNa CHNb 995 2000 200 2004 3 3 δ 995 2000 200 2004 β 2 35 90% 35
202 4 23 0. 278 β 0. 0046 3 GDP 2 3 LnP jit LnP jit LnP jit LnI it 0. 64 *** 0. 58 *** 0. 59 *** 3. 57 05. 36 05. 78 CHN - 0. 22 *** -. 77 CHNa - 0. 0046 995 2000-0. 34 CHNb - 0. 278 *** 200 2004-8. 7 Constant 0. 695 *** 0. 745 *** 0. 738 *** 54. 42 55. 36 54. 86 N 934 454 934 454 934 454 R 2 0. 036 0. 038 0. 040 t *** ** * % 5% 0% HS-6 HS-6 lvarez and Claro 2006a - δ δ j j - δ + δ j = z j U z j = k q kj a utility shifter σ j = / - θ j q kj n kj x z kj θ j θ j < j 7 k z j j
24 202 4 q kj t k j z k j x z kj n k j z k j X z kj = n kj x z kj z δ j Y z = n kj p z kj x z kj 8 k Y z z p z kj z k j z k j θ j x z kj θ j - = λz j p z kj 9 q kj λ z j τ z kj > k j z p z kj = p kj τ z kj j c r 9 x z θ cj ( x ) j - = pz cj z rj p z rj ( ) ( ) qrj q cj 0 0 z c r j s = h k l ks l ks s k Y k = h k L k L k l kj = f j + m kj x kj f j m kj c j k x k cj τ k cjc j p cj = h c m cj Krugman 980 η j = / - θ j z p cj /p rj = h c /h r m cj /m rj h k BACI HS-6 x kj X z kj = n kj x z kj θ j h k
202 4 25 0 X z cj ( X ) = pz cj z rj p z rj ( ) ( ) - σ j qcj q rj ( ) σ j ncj n rj z c r j c r j n cj = n n j = f m j q j ω c ω z τ j rj = Y c /Y r m j = m cj /m rj j q j = q cj /q rj ω c = h c /h r c r ω z = h z /h r z r τ j 2 j c r = m j = q j = ω c = ω z τ j n j = c r home market effect Krugman 980 n j / > 0 c c ω c c j z r ω z n j / ω c < 0 z m - σ j j q σ j j ω - σ j cj > n j / ω z > 0 n j / m j < 0 n j / q j > 0 n j c r j 2 j 2 m j = p z j /ω c z c r j X z j = X z cj /X z rj 2 LnX z jt = b j + a 0j a j - σ j - Lnp z jt + a 0j Ln t - a 0j a j Lnω ct + a 0j a j σ j Lnq jt + a 0j a 2j Lnω zt + a 3j Lnτ jt 3 a ij n jt b j q jt = e δ 0j + δ t q jt = q jct /q jrt z c r j lvarez and Claro 2006a
26 202 4 3 a ij = a i δ = δ j eu c r 3 j LnX eu jt = α 0j + α t + α 2 Lnp eu jt + α 3 Ln jt + α 4 Lnω cjt + α 5 Lnω eujt + α 6 Lnτ jt + υ jt 4 4 α δ = - ( α 2 + α 4 + ) 2 4 X eu jt j t p eu jt j 3 jt GDP GDP 4 ω cjt ω eujt α 4 α 5 5 τ jt j HS-6 α 6 6 4 Pooled Data Panel Data OLS LSDV FGLS 4 LM F OLS Hausman 4 2 5 α 2 α 6 2 3 4 5 6 lnq jt = lnq cjt - lnq rjt = δ 0j + δ t δ CEPII-BACI GDP WDI GDP WDI UNCTAD TRAINS Lnτ jt = Ln + tariff jt
202 4 27 4 OLS LSDV FGLS OLS LSDV FGLS 2 3 4 5 6 LnX jt LnX jt LnX jt LnX jt LnX jt LnX jt Lnp jt -. 744 *** -. 086 *** -. 39 *** -. 740 *** -. 086 *** - 9. 9-08. 89-5. 98-9. 89-08. 89 -. 39 *** - 5. 98 Ln jt - 2. 63 * - 2. 09-28. 2 *** - 6. 76-27. 63 *** - 6. 58-28. 4 ** - 2. 74-26. 50 *** - 6. 34-26. 44 *** - 6. 27 Lnω cjt 20. 46. 95 26. 46 *** 6. 27 26. 02 *** 6. 26. 78 * 2. 55 24. 94 *** 5. 88 24. 90 *** 5. 82 Lnω eujt - 0. 522 -. 54-0. 594 *** - 4. 34-0. 592 *** - 4. 30-0. 84 * - 2. 39-0. 524 *** - 3. 80-0. 542 *** - 3. 90 Lnτ jt 0. 262 *** 2. 47-0. 0609 *** - 3. 89-0. 0445 ** - 2. 90 t 0. 0854. 04 0. 38 *** 4. 9 0. 35 *** 4. 05 0. 0952. 6 0. 37 *** 4. 4 0. 34 *** 4. 0 Constant - 206. 5 -. 35-32. 9 *** - 5. 25-34. 9 *** - 5. 09-236. -. 55-36. 5 *** - 5. 6-30. 9 *** - 5. 03 sample 38 434 38 434 38 434 38 432 38 432 38 432 R 2 within 0. 46 0. 43 0. 49 0. 45 between 0. 283 0. 2868 0. 284 0. 2858 overall 0. 2850 0. 2660 0. 2695 0. 2879 0. 2638 0. 2680 F 44. 05 43. 86 LM 9 43. 9 90 337. 7 Hausman 927. 05 945. 5 < 20 0. 05 < p jt 2 t *** ** * % 5% 0% c /r %. 086% α 3 WTO α 4 α 5 5 95%
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