38 3 2014 5 Vol. 38 No. 3 May 2014 3 Population Research * 2013 2013 1. 93 1. 84 1. 98 2. 01 1. 79 1. 83 1. 95 1. 81 104 1 2 128 102 59. 0% 20. 5% 12. 1% 8. 4% 100081 Fertility Intention of Rural and Urban Residents in China Results from the 2013 National Fertility Intention Survey Zhuang Yaer Jiang Yu Wang Zhili Li Chengfu Qi Jianan Wang Hui Liu Hongyan Li Bohua Qin Min Abstract In preparing for fertility policy adjustment and implementing the Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings a national fertility intention survey was conducted in 29 provinces in China in August 2013. Survey results indicate that currently the ideal number of children is 1. 93 in China. The reported ideal number of children in regions with 1 child 1. 5 and 2 children policies are 1. 84 1. 98 and 2. 01 respectively. For the couples both of which have no siblings one of which has siblings and both of which have siblings the reported ideal numbers of children are 1. 79 1. 83 and 1. 95 respectively. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child the reported ideal number of children is 1. 81. The overall sex ratio of reported ideal numbers of children is 104 males per 100 females in China. The sex ratio is 128 for those whose ideal number of children is 1 and 102 for those whose ideal number of children is 2. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child 59% are uncertain about the birth timing of next child 20. 5% plan to give a birth in one year 12. 1% plan to give a birth in two years and 8. 4% plan to have one in three years. Adjustment of family planning policy will help narrow the gap between fertility intention and fertility behavior and it is highly unlikely that a nation-wide birth heaping would occur if the Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings is well implemented. Keywords Fertility Intention Ideal Number of Children Fertility Intention Survey Fertility Policy Authors Zhuang Yaer is Associate Research Fellow Jiang Yu is Research Assistant Wang Zhili is Associate Research Fellow Li Chengfu is Associate Research Fellow Qi Jianan is Associate Research Fellow Wang Hui is Associate Research Fellow Liu Hongyan is Research Fellow Li Bohua is Research Fellow and Qin Min is Associate Research Fellow China Population and Development Research Center. Email yaerzh@ 126. com * 2012BAI40B01
4 38 1985 1990 1985 1990 2. 40 2. 23 2002 2. 04 2007 1. 89 2012 1. 86 2013 1981 2. 61 1985 1989 2. 29 1993 1. 5 ~ 1. 6 2013 1. 7 2014 2010 2013 2011 2004 2012 2013 2012 2008 2013 11 15 2013 8 29 1 1. 1 1 1. 2 29 2013 8 20 ~ 44 15 ~ 19 45 ~ 49 1
3 5 1. 3 19 1 13 3 2 1992 2014 1. 4 1 63600 1 36400 15600 11600 3 1 2400 1600 400 400 2400 1400 600 400 1400 600 400 400 63451 99. 8% 1 2 PPS 29 29 3 87 PPS 2011 PPS 1 20 10 1
6 38 3 2014 2013 2010 2000 2013 3 2013 20 ~ 44 2 72. 4% 27. 6% 4. 0% 11. 0% 1 85. 0% 40. 2% 49. 3% 8. 3% 0. 6% 1. 6% 1 58. 4% 2 31. 5% 3 2 5. 9% 4. 2% 3 12 2. 1 2. 1. 1 1 20 ~ 44 1. 93 1. 92 1. 98 1. 82 1. 79 1. 83 1. 95 1 1 N = 36851 58. 5% 1. 83 1 N = 19149 30. 4% 1. 80 1 N = 9552 15. 2% 1. 84 N = 3664 5. 8% 1. 81 1 N = 801 1. 3% 1. 81 1. 80 ~ 1. 84 7. 1% 20. 5% 19. 3% 16. 5% 2. 3% 2. 2% 1. 9% 2 1 2 0 1 2 3
3 7 Table 1 1 Average Ideal Number of Children among People with Different Characteristics % 0 1 2 3 0. 1 13. 2 81. 8 4. 9 1. 93 63037 100 20 ~ 24 0. 0 13. 3 83. 6 3. 1 1. 90 4036 6. 4 25 ~ 29 0. 1 13. 8 82. 1 3. 9 1. 91 10989 17. 4 30 ~ 34 0. 1 12. 3 83. 2 4. 4 1. 93 15189 24. 1 35 ~ 39 0. 1 12. 7 82. 1 5. 1 1. 94 15727 24. 9 40 ~ 44 0. 1 14. 0 79. 6 6. 3 1. 94 17097 27. 1 0. 1 13. 1 81. 5 5. 3 1. 93 29687 47. 1 0. 1 13. 2 82. 0 4. 6 1. 92 33350 52. 9 0. 0 10. 9 83. 1 6. 0 1. 96 45655 72. 4 0. 2 19. 2 78. 4 2. 1 1. 83 17382 27. 6 0. 0 9. 9 80. 0 10. 1 2. 03 9667 15. 3 0. 0 12. 4 82. 4 5. 1 1. 94 30898 49. 0 0. 1 15. 3 82. 3 2. 3 1. 87 11918 18. 9 0. 3 16. 2 81. 0 2. 5 1. 86 10553 16. 7 0. 0 10. 8 82. 5 6. 7 1. 98 34728 55. 1 0. 2 20. 0 77. 8 2. 0 1. 82 14535 23. 1 0. 1 12. 1 84. 2 3. 6 1. 92 13774 21. 8 0 0. 7 20. 0 77. 6 1. 7 1. 81 3684 5. 8 1 0. 1 19. 2 78. 9 1. 8 1. 83 36851 58. 5 2 0. 0 2. 3 91. 5 6. 2 2. 05 19836 31. 5 3 0. 0 1. 9 55. 2 42. 9 2. 53 2666 4. 2 0. 4 23. 4 73. 9 2. 3 1. 79 2521 4. 0 0. 1 19. 2 78. 8 2. 0 1. 83 6917 11. 0 0. 1 11. 9 82. 5 5. 4 1. 95 53599 85. 0 0. 2 18. 4 79. 5 1. 9 1. 84 25367 40. 2 1 0. 0 9. 9 83. 4 6. 7 1. 98 31213 49. 5 0. 0 8. 6 83. 4 7. 9 2. 01 5109 8. 1 0. 0 4. 5 71. 2 24. 3 2. 30 359 0. 6 0. 0 11. 1 82. 9 6. 0 1. 96 988 1. 6 2013 2. 1. 2 1
8 38 1. 84 1. 82 1. 98 1. 98 2. 01 2. 30 1 1 3 1. 61 1 1. 65 1. 69 2. 0 9 2. 24 2. 18 2. 18 0. 63 1 Figure 1 1 Average Ideal Number of Children in Different Regions 1 2. 1. 3 2 0 1 2 3 0. 1% 13. 2% 81. 8% 4. 9% 2 Figure 2 2 Distribution of Ideal Number of Children 1 1 2 77. 2% 1 2001 2006
3 9 1 2 80. 7% 2 Table 2 2 1 Distribution of Ideal Number of Children by the Couples with One Child in Areas with Different Fertility Policies % 0 1 2 3 0. 1 19. 2 78. 9 1. 8 100 36850 0. 1 21. 3 77. 2 1. 4 100 19149 1 0. 0 17. 6 80. 7 1. 7 100 9552 1 0. 0 15. 4 81. 8 2. 8 100 5603 0. 1 18. 5 78. 7 2. 8 100 1889 0. 0 11. 1 80. 0 7. 9 100 126 0. 0 16. 4 80. 4 3. 2 100 531 1 1 1 2 77. 0% 1 2 79. 2% 3 Table 3 3 1 2 Distribution of Ideal Number of Children Being Two by Couples with One Child by Family Type and Fertility Policy 1 1 2 % 2 % 77. 2 14778 80. 7 7704 73. 0 1136 70. 1 75 77. 0 2821 79. 2 634 77. 7 10821 80. 9 6995 1 2 80% 2. 1. 4 104. 2 1 N = 8316 33. 3% 22. 2% 44. 5% 105 128. 0 2 N = 51554 81. 7% 1 1 2 1. 2% 2 0. 9% 16. 3% 101. 5 2 2. 2 2. 2. 1 1 2
10 38 1 48. 1% 2 38. 4% 2 13. 6% 2 2 55. 6% 44. 4% 2 49. 1% 62. 7% 62. 5% 70. 2% 2 2. 2. 2 1 2 1 2 60. 8% 54. 8% 54. 4% 66. 0% 55. 8% 10 2 2 3 3 Figure 3 1 2 Proportions Wishing to have a Second Child by Age of Women in One Child Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings 1 1 N = 3679 57. 6% 1 N = 801 65. 7% 1 2. 2. 3 1 N = 9973 2. 2% 76. 1% 21. 7% N = 7852 62. 3% 3. 4% 34. 3% 105 1 86. 7% 1 79. 8% 2. 3 0 1 2 59. 0%
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