2008
?? 2
07 08 3
4 / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 (3mma,y/y) -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Bloomberg Bloomberg
GDP30% 20% 5
IMF 2007.10 IMF 6
7 20% 4.5% -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07
8 : GDP 20% 0 10 20 30 40 50 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07
9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07-60 -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07
CPI CPI 4% 10
15 12 9 6 3 0-3 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 11
1%06 4.5% 2-3% 8-10% 120 110 100 90 80 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 UBS 12
13
14 6.76 7.35 7.80 8.07 8.28 8.28 8.28 / 15.0 17.0 15.1 13.0 14.5 21.1 16.9 16.0 15.0 16.8 19.0 16.0 21.7 19.0 16.5 18.0 16.9 17.6 14.6 19.6 16.8 M2 19.0 22.0 17.5 11.8 13.6 18.7 16.8 M1 4.0 4.5 1.5 1.8 3.9 1.2-0.8 CPI 22.0 20.0 20.0 17.6 36.0 39.9 21.2 22.0 25.0 27.2 28.4 35.4 34.6 22.3 ( 24.0 25.0 24.0 25.7 25.8 26.7 16.1 13.3 12.8 12.7 12.0 10.7 9.2 10.1 16.5 18.0 16.6 16.4 16.7 17.0 12.6 10.6 11.5 11.1 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.1 GDP 2008E 2007E 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 %
?? 15
40.8% 27.3% 68% 15.7% + 16.2% 16
17 07 1-3 64% 91%70%48% 91%79%64% 20071-3 158% 84% 143% 70% 39% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 07 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% [A]
08 08 /GDP 10.5%VS 14% 12.7% 6.9% 14.1% ROE 34 96 110 18
08 33% 25% 11.9% 07 27% 21-22% 7-8% 18.43% + 06 10.5%05 5.1% 07 46% 12 08 19
08 34% 2007 60% 08 34% 20
2009 2009 08 21
08 PE=28.3 07 40.2 PB6.1 074 07 PE38.1 08 34% 08 PE 28.4 600% 500% 07 3 5 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 109.14% 40.78% 51.76% 46.32% 55.93% 11.50% -3.71% 7.56% 7.70% Bloomberg 22
23 07 06 60% 06 08 29.9 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 [L] [J] [C0] [K] [C2] [A] [M] [E] [C5] [G] [C4] [F] [C7] [C1] [H] [C8] [C3] [D] [C6] [I] [B] 2006 2007E
> 20 60-70 24
PE 1.6 08 1.75 PE 2.6 08 3 08PEG=1.13 PB ROE 09 15% 0809 24.6% PEG=1.56 PE ratio 38.50 17.40 25.80 20.86 16.40 14.7 14.00 13.30 12.60 PB ratio 6.29 2.53 5.87 3.30 2.94 1.98 2.67 2.59 2.03 ROE 16.34% 14.54% 22.75% 15.82% 17.93% 13.47% 19.07% 19.47% 16.11% 07 60.00% 8.80% 14.00% 24.10% 8.20% 11.00% 34.10% 5.60% 17.00% 08 34.00% 8.10% 18.00% -13.20% 11.90% 15.30% 9.30% 8.20% 8.50% 2 46.42% 8.45% 15.98% 3.79% 10.03% 13.13% 21.07% 6.89% 12.67% 08-PEG 1.13 2.15 1.43-1.58 1.38 0.96 1.51 1.62 1.48 JP MorganBloomberg 25
07 1820 08 2383 2008 3896 IPOH IPO 26
2007115 QDII IPO 27
1 80 859 859 87 239 121 / 49.3%) 861 5% 872 2.5% 2 895 4.25%90 5.25% 86 28
2 851 89 12779 2 38915 89 25% 14.7% 23%90-92 -6.9%-9%-26% 56% 29
07 08 A 30
31
34% 08 EPS PE 60-70PE 2008 PE 25-35 2008 4500-6500 32
?? 33
+ 08 34