2006 12 15 2007 A Email xxm@gffunds.com.cn 2006 2006 5 A 2006 77000 05 44000 IPO 2 A 1.8 2007 07 30% A 8000 A A A 1
A A 2007 A 2
A... 4 A...4 07...6 A...10 07 A...14... 14...14...16...17...21 A...25... 25...25...26...26...29...30... 31 (consumers and services)...31...33 (materials metal minerals)...36...37...39 3
A A 2006 2006 5 2006 5 A 210.00% 190.00% 170.00% 150.00% 130.00% 110.00% 90.00% 2006 1 3 2006 1 17 2006 1 31 2006 2 14 2006 2 28 2006 3 14 2006 3 28 2006 4 11 2006 4 25 2006 5 9 2006 5 23 2006 6 6 2006 6 20 INDU Index IBOV Index RTSI$ Index SENSEX Index 2006 7 4 2006 7 18 SHCOMP Index 2006 8 1 2006 8 15 2006 8 29 2006 9 12 2006 9 26 2006 10 10 2006 10 24 2006 11 7 2006 11 21 2006 12 5 1 Bloomberg, 2006 12 12 77468 05 44600 2006 A 20284 4
A 17896 5774 2006-12-12 77468 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 712 5774 17896 20284 32802 32802 2005 2006-12-12 IPO 2 WINDNET, IPO A 7751 9027 16700 800 07 A A 05 06 1-9 17.6 A 5774 17896 05 9129 32802 27.8% 5
A 8767 20284 43% 27.8% 6 43% 07 A A A A 2006 A 2001 2005 6
% 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 42.7 38.1 32.9 34.4 29.6 20.6 22.6 17.6 8.1 4.2 2001 2002 2003 2004-2.1 2005 2006 1-9 -20.6-30 A WINDNET, 3 2001 2006 ST 06 A 2006 1-9 15.6% 29.6% 17.6% 23.1% 52.1% A 12 A 7
2006 1-9 35.00% 30.00% 29.60% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 17.60% 15.60% 5.00% 0.00% WINDNET, 4 2006 1 9 2007 A 3 05 29.88% 25% 7% 20% 1-3 8
39% 5% 3%-4% 15%-20% 6%-8% 07 7%-8% 2000-2006 1 1995 2006 % 1995-1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 4.8 8.9 8.5 9.6 12.1 13.2 14.4 2006 1.7 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.6 1 2.8 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 2 18.4 18.4 17.6 17.6 17.1 15.9 15.6 14.8 178.6 155.3 144.1 142.5 144.0 138.3 137.5 64.1 60.8 59.0 58.7 59.0 58.0 57.8 58.0 7.8 92.0 7.7 22.2 44.1 43.1 24.1 27.2 10.8 20.5 11.4 16.8 30.8 38.9 25.0 25.6 11.0 18.0 11.6 16.5 30.0 38.7 25.0 25.5 11.5 19.7 12.5 16.8 31.5 41.0 25.5 26.7 3 8.4 8.6 5.7 14.6 20.3 21.8 21.0 15.0 CEIC; : 1* / 2* / 3* 07 9
07 06 20% ( ) 07 30% 2003 2004 30% 07 A A A ST 22 A 2 2006 12 12 A 2006-12-1 225 2 P/E 21 18 22 14 18 24 8 12 22 P/B 4.0 4.1 2.2 3.8 3.0 6.8 1.9 2.8 2.4 1-3Q GDP 2.9 2.9% 2.7% 6.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.4% 1.15% 10.4% CPI 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 6.55% 9.2% 3.26% 1.4% 10
Bloomberg, 1998 P/E 20-60 30 30 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 1998-1-2 1998-5-15 1998-9-11 1999-1-8 1999-5-21 1999-9-17 2000-1-14 2000-6-2 2000-9-29 2001-2-16 2001-6-15 2001-10-19 2002-3-1 2002-6-28 2002-11-1 2003-3-7 2003-7-11 2003-11-7 2004-3-12 2004-7-16 2004-11-12 2005-3-18 2005-7-22 2005-11-25 2006-3-31 2006-8-4 2006-12-8 Px Last Pe Ratio WINDNET, 5 P/B A ROE ROE 11
38.00% 33.00% 28.00% 23.00% 18.00% ROE P/B 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 13.00% 8.00% A ROE(L) P/B(R) 2.00 1.00 Bloomberg, 6 ROE P/B 12.00% A ROE 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1-3Q2006 2006E 12
WINDNET, 7 A ROE A A DCF CAPM Ke=Rf+b(ERP), Rf 10 3.1% ERP equity risk premium A P/E P/E/G P/B DCF A G P/E ROE A P/B DCF A 13
07 07 A 2006 2006 2007 A 8000 07 30% A A A 06 07 1. 2. 5 4.4% 3.8% 14
3. 4. 03 15 5. 07 GDP 0.6 3 2003A 2004A 2005A 1Q2006 2Q2006 3Q2006 GDP 2.5 3.9% 3.2% 5.6 2.6% 2.2% CPI 2.3 2.7 3.4% 3.4 4.3 2.1 GDP CPI 2006E 2007E 2006E 2007E OECD 3.2% 2.4% 3.3% 2.3% IMF 3.4% 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% Bloomberg, 1 1 07 10% 0.5% IMF 2.5 15
06 4 2005 GDP GDP 186.113 6704.5 3597 447 143.420 3498.5 2439 1428 1080.264 6419.3 594-109 1306.314 18847.8 1445 1018.8 Bloomberg, 2005 GDP 1400 600 16
GDP / GDP 17
8 2001 2006 18.4% 15.6% 5% 6% ROE ROA 1 TFP 18
9 90 19
/ 20
10 27 10% 2007 9.5%-10.5% 2007 / 21
16% 2011 2015 15% 2011 2015 5045.8 8496.5 7.0% 2011 2015 4% 2011 2015 5489.8 8111.2 2004 1 7 2020 1.2 1.6 10 2005 1 7918 8.5 2.9 1.6 4 2006 9 2010 639 21 80% 50 600 8000 3000 2400 22
06 23
24
A A 2006 5 2007 A 07 25
07 2005 WTO 2007 2007 26
5 27
6 2006-2010 2011-2015 2500 1400 1000 600 5000 8500 5500 8100 2400, 7 2006 2020 28
WTO 05 29
/ / Synergy 30
(consumers and services) 40% GDP 31
17% 3G G C 3G WCDMA GDP 8 32
2006 2006 3 2007-2010 150-300 8 33
34 6% 24% 0.93 8250 3000 9800 80 CA 120 2010 20% 2015 35% 2006 2015 7300 2009
08 7.5 80% 08 6000 12500 40% 2006 1-9 43.64 110 66 17788.72 6580 40% 2000 2007 110 06 35.6 07 07 9 35
(materials metal minerals) 07 2007 2006 06 06 10 36
3G 3G 2G CDMA 1X CDMA2000 2007 3G 37
2006 2020 11 / 38
2006 6 43% 300 39