2006 11 29 2007 (0755) 22623607 liulili@pasc.com.cn 2006 1 10 13.6% 0.6 7.6 13.9%~14.0 06 20.57% 40.94 07 20%~30% WMT US 90 PEG 2 07 000061 002024 600693 600694 000987 600858 600729 600628 EPS PE 20061128 2005 2006E 2007E 2005 2006E 2007E 000061 11.38 0.04 0.18 0.40 284.5 63.2 28.5 002024 33.90 0.53 0.80 1.20 64.0 42.4 28.3 600693 9.57 0.24 0.34 0.48 39.9 28.1 19.9 600694 33.26 0.83 1.00 1.31 40.1 33.3 25.4 600858 16.48 0.38 0.48 0.60 43.4 34.3 27.5 000987 14.01 0.40 0.52 0.63 35.0 26.9 22.2 600729 12.92 0.38 0.42 0.47 34.0 30.8 27.5 600628 8.76 0.25 0.30 0.38 35.0 29.2 23.4 000829 13.39 0.27 - - 49.6 - - 2005 8 17 2006 2005 12 07
3 3 4 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 1 12 000061 12 002024 12 600694 13 2 13 000987 14 600693 14 3 14 600858 15 600729 15 4 16 2/19
2006 1 10 13.6% 0.6 7.6 13.9~14.0 1 1996 ~2006 1 10 % 80000 70000 60000 ( ) 25% 20% 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 1-10 15% 10% 5% 0% 2 2006 10 3 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 98 96 94 92 100 90 88 86 84 82 80 an- 99 ul- 99 an- 00 ul- 00 an- 01 ul- 01 an- 02 ul- 02 an- 03 ul- 03 an- 04 ul- 04 an- 05 ul- 05 an- 06 ul- 06 3/19
4 06 20.57 40.94 10371.96 3641% 06 07 4 % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 03Q3 04Q3 05Q3 06Q3-20% 50 4/19
5 % 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 03Q3 04Q3 05Q3 06Q3 50 6 % ROE 05Q3 06Q3 05Q3 06Q3 05Q3 06Q3 05Q3 06Q3 20.86 17.21 3.15 2.66 243.39 25.69 534.58 6.16 20.64 15.48 1.88 2.47 71.81 54.65 110.68 102.59 10.93 15.13 0.76 0.70 15.82 86.20 5.41 70.08 9.94 12.15 6.55 7.88 31.80 12.93 105.09 35.75 8.83 10.61 1.98 1.89 14.64 35.63-4.06 29.53 S 3.92 9.20 1.57 4.33-2.91-9.40 15.35 149.75 10.10 9.01 3.14 2.90 44.96 25.02 73.07 15.38 10.25 8.50 2.88 2.19 6.82 13.33 15.17-13.88 5.54 7.55 4.62 5.11 21.76 27.46 6.74 41.01 6.20 7.34 7.96 7.73 0.31 34.95 26.25 31.16 6.37 7.31 2.64 2.73 15.82 22.86 6.14 26.84 3.83 7.18 2.47 4.14 13.01 19.15 49.06 100.10 7.53 7.14 3.64 3.43 17.07 7.67 18.80 1.58 7.08 6.91 0.83 0.75 34.55 17.26 4.59 5.40 S 2.66 6.65 1.22 2.53 28.67 26.11 47.92 162.76 9.95 6.64 1.84 2.24 17.05 9.38 39.01 33.72 5.53 6.37 3.95 3.28 28.70 41.73 24.75 17.63 3.55 5.78 0.84 1.35 14.19 7.11 94.41 71.96 5.10 5.67 1.51 1.60 31.23 4.12-6.38 9.94 3.72 4.95 1.98 2.71 216.74-0.78 78.50 35.43 S 3.83 4.92 2.96 3.69 8.14 4.60 13.08 30.38 4.30 4.72 1.77 2.43 87.54-21.82 180.10 7.41 2.71 4.32 1.01 1.32 19.31 25.77 1.21 64.68 6.55 3.53 8.07 4.57 3.53-3.91 201.13-45.54 2.71 2.62 2.60 2.44 9.23 5.41 6.48-1.11 1.91 2.43 3.49 3.98-3.55 12.67 3.12 28.47 0.40 2.21 0.14 0.62-1.43 6.89 316.43 357.30 2.04 1.33 0.92 0.52 10.09 17.92-27.82-34.06 1.24 1.28 1.26 1.32-12.18-1.34-31.57 3.78 S 5.70 1.11 1.21 0.30-5.99-18.62-16.33-80.11 S 1.86 0.86 0.43 0.20 12.43 2.34-45.83-53.10 0.56 0.61 0.56 0.51 47.81 20.77 150.05 9.84-2.97 0.51-10.07 1.51 15.03 6.41-223.37 115.95 0.26 0.32 0.14 0.15 15.83 18.16-42.97 23.41 1.06-0.23 1.72-0.17 76.45 3.53-32.11-110.33 1.76-6.83 2.02-35.28 70.02-80.50 50.05-440.97 06Q3ROE 5/19
04 07 07 20~30% 7 / 12000 10000 8000 1000 40% 35% 30% 25% 6000 4000 2000 0 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 CR100 04 59.19% 66.33 04 45.42 44.32 6/19
8 % 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 9 2005 10 % 04 1 7207393 7% 6354 15% 1 2 4984000 109% 426 88% 2 3 3971841 80% 363 88% 4 4 3129946 76% 2133 20% 15 5 3011739 30% 130 8% 3 6 2080000 30% 74 6% 6 7 1907184 44% 659 8% 10 8 1754900 28% 1572 28% 9 9 1743580 25% 78 26% 5 10 1570000 35% 60 28% - 10 05 11 05 30.00% 20.00% 2005 25.00% 10.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% 5.00% -30.00% 0.00% -40.00% 7/19
2005 1/2 SAP ERP 2005 06 46 45% 20 06 12 04 13 05,, 10.21% 3.34%, 14.38%, 37.73%,, 11.75% 9.56%, 7.35%, 5.67% 2.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 1.5% 10.8% 57.0% 26.7% 8/19
14 2005 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 30% 15 30% 25% (%) (%) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% S wind 9/19
5 3~5 05 25.13.7 9.19 9.68 2.782.20 16 05 % 17 05 % 4% 8% 10% 28% IT 10% 15% 24% 16% 16% 18% 12% 17% 20% 2% 10/19
12 18 % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 WMT US 90 PEG 2 07 19 WMT US 30% 25% 20% 5 50 45 40 35 30 15% 10% 5% 0% 89 90 91 92 93 84 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 BLOOMBERG 25 20 15 10 5 0 11/19
1 000061 002024 600694 000061 16 8% 2 06 07 08 0.18 0.40 0.56 002024 15% 104% 04 06 07 0.80 1.20 ROE 12/19
20 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 ( ) ( ) 2004Q3 2005Q3 2006Q3 2006E 2007E 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 600694 06 07 08 1.00 1.31 1.67 000829 2 000987 600693 600694 000061 002024 13/19
21 8 7% 800 5 240 06 08 ROE 7.7488% 3006 08 253045% 8.70 / 05 8% 06 08 25 30 60% 40 05 07 ROE 05 07 1.82 3.4 / 3.66 / 50% 0.8 / 000987 VIP 60 30% 06 12.9335.75 2 06 07 08 0.52 0.63 0.75 600693 3 3~5 07 08 06 07 08 0.34 0.48 0.62 3 05 600729 600858 600628 14/19
22 000759 8.53% 000501 17.23% 600693 17.18% 000564 19.16% 600697 22.69% 600858 23.69% 600628 24.99% 600729 32.15% 600858 06 10 06 5 07 30 4 5 3 25 06 07 08 0.48 0.60 0.76 600729 21 31 19 8 51 10 07 06 07 0.42 0.47 07 15/19
4 23 EPS PE 20061128 2005 2006E 2007E 2005 2006E 2007E 000061 11.38 0.04 0.18 0.40 284.5 63.2 28.5 002024 33.90 0.53 0.80 1.20 64.0 42.4 28.3 600693 9.57 0.24 0.34 0.48 39.9 28.1 19.9 600694 33.26 0.83 1.00 1.31 40.1 33.3 25.4 600858 16.48 0.38 0.48 0.60 43.4 34.3 27.5 000987 14.01 0.40 0.52 0.63 35.0 26.9 22.2 600729 12.92 0.38 0.42 0.47 34.0 30.8 27.5 600628 8.76 0.25 0.30 0.38 35.0 29.2 23.4 000829 13.39 0.27 - - 49.6 - - 16/19
2006 + 52.7 5 2007 2006 11 2009 1000 1200 1500 15% 2010 2000 2006 11 2006 11 9 2006 11 2 2006 10 2006 10 10 20000 2006 10 1700 261 2006 10 29.5% 2006 10 2006 10 20 5 SAP SAP SAP 2006 9 ERP 2006 9 2010 100 2006 9 1.5 2006 9 8245 3.9 4.5 1.32 H 90 2006 9 12 50% 2006 9 A 2006 8 2006 8 8 6 2006 8 450 283 20 2006 7 2006 6 10 50.13% 2006 5 39.13 2006 5 B2C 2006 5 1.8 51 2006 4 2006 4 4.21 TCL 2006 4 2006 3 4.46 2006 3 14 2006 3 18 7-11 2006 2 2006 2 3.7 75% 2006 1 90% 17/19
6 20 6 1020 6 10 6 10% 18/19
2006 518029 4008866338 (0755) 82449257