2006 9 3 : CHNS, 90, ;, ;,1997 2000, :,, 30 % :,, 90,? :??,, 3, :100875 :xingchunbing @gsm. pku. edu. cn ;,,, 6 (,2006) CHNS, 1989 1409, 650 ; 582 402 162, 1072 1256 1325, 90 (1991 1993 ), (, 2006) (transition matrix) ( ), 2 2, 71. 8 35. 3 ( ) 1989,, 28. 2 64. 7 7118 %, 2812 % ;, 3513 % 6417 %,,,,, 103
:,,,, ;,,,,, Becker Tomes(1986), ( ), ( ),, ;,,,, 1989 2000, 1989 1991 1993 1997 2000 (CNHS) 9 4000, ( ),CHNS,, CHNS :CHNS,, 30 %, 30 %, 30 % (1992), Lewis(1954) Harris Todaro (1970) Solon(1999), Solon(1992), 014 Behrman Taubman(1985) 012, Becker Tomes(1986) :,, ( Cheng Dai,1995), (,2005),,, ; 104
2006 9,, :CHNS ;,,,, (attrition),,, :,,, 1,, 30 % ;,, 30 % 1989 1997, :, 1997, 2000,,,,, 1 CHNS 5 (http :ΠΠwww. cpc. unc. eduπchina) Altonji et. al. (1992) Hayashi (1995) Kochar (2000), CHNS1993, ;CHNS1997,, ; CHNS2000,,,,, :,, ( 1993 ),,, 16,,,, (2006),, (2004),1989 2000, 20 % 32 %, 105
:, 1 :, ;, ;, 1, 1 1989 2253 0. 349 0. 477 944 0. 375 0. 484 1989 1991 1993 ( = 1Π = 0) 1991 2147 0. 313 0. 464 918 0. 343 0. 475 1993 2062 0. 272 0. 445 1005 0. 280 0. 449 1997 2034 0. 254 0. 435 898 0. 292 0. 455, 2000 2262 0. 288 0. 453 1069 0. 342 0. 475 1989 2253 41. 37 11. 30 944 22. 80 5. 90 1991 2147 42. 63 10. 88 918 23. 34 5. 97 1993 2062 43. 67 10. 60 1005 23. 86 6. 00, 1997 2034 44. 51 10. 62 898 24. 99 6. 28 2000 2262 45. 32 10. 33 1069 25. 65 6. 61 1989 1493 5. 31 3. 64 587 7. 36 2. 85 ( ) 1991 1516 5. 56 3. 58 603 7. 30 2. 79, 1993 1542 5. 30 3. 31 723 7. 20 2. 59 1997 1572 5. 98 3. 60 632 8. 00 2. 53,94 % 2000 1662 6. 54 3. 46 697 8. 45 2. 46 ; 1989 789 7. 77 3. 28 354 9. 00 2. 49 ( ) 1991 672 7. 98 3. 22 315 9. 24 2. 39 1993 561 7. 74 3. 01 281 9. 00 2. 44 :1989 1991 1997 515 8. 76 3. 12 261 9. 47 2. 53 1993 2000 649 8. 92 3. 17 366 9. 36 2. 67 13 % 15 % 1989 870 0. 06 0. 23 931 0. 13 0. 34 ( 1 1991 22 % 1997 825 0. 06 0. 24 888 0. 15 0. 36 = 1Π = 0) 2000 1993 902 0. 06 0. 24 957 0. 22 0. 42 1997 828 0. 02 0. 13 828 0. 19 0. 39 2000 994 0. 03 0. 16 994 0. 29 0. 45 :1989 1991 1993 ;1997 2000, :,, 19 % 29 %,2000 1997 106
2006 9 : wd T t = t + t wd T- 1 t + t, t = 89 91 93 97 00 (1) wd ( = 1Π = 0), T, T - 1 ( ) ; ;, : = 0, = 1, ( ) ( ) t ( t = 89 91 93 97 00 1989 1991 1993 1997 2000 ),,, (1), logit (LPM),,,,,,, wd T ht = wd T- 1 ht + u h + ht, (1 ) u h,, ( h), : wd T h = wd T - 1 h + gu h + g h, wd T h 5 wd T ht, u h, u h = gu h : wd T ht - wd T h = ( wd T- 1 ht - wd T- 1 h ) + ( ht - g h ), (2),, ;, 90,, wd T ht = 00 t = 89 td t + 00 t = 89 twd T- 1 ht D t + X + u h + ht (3), wdht T h t, D t, t = 89 91 93 97 00 u h (1 ),, :, ;, LPM, LPM, LPM, (2003) (Solon,1992), ;, (simultaneity), 107
: ( ) (1 ) (2), u h X, ( = - - 6) ;,,, ( 2000 1989 ) ( ) : ( 2) logit (LPM), LPM, 1989 2000, 3615 4714 3714 3419 3317, 10 ( 1991 2000 ), 1991 47 % 2000 34 % 2 LPM,( : = 1 = 0), 1989 1991 1993 1997 2000 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) A : wd T - 1 0. 3650 333 0. 4736 333 0. 3737 333 0. 3485 333 0. 3373 333 (0. 0355) (0. 0370) (0. 0385) (0. 0404) (0. 0370)? B : wd T - 1 0. 3510 333 0. 4121 333 0. 3081 333 0. 3156 333 0. 2874 333? (0. 0344) (0. 0369) (0. 0387) (0. 0430) (0. 0390) 0. 0534 333 0. 0549 333 0. 0688 333 0. 0380 333 0. 0273 333 (0. 0057) (0. 0059) (0. 0064) (0. 0073) (0. 0069), : (1) wd T - 1 ( = 1, = 0) ; (2) A B, B ; (3) 1 %, 2 B,,,,, (Solon, 1999),,, ( 2 A ), : ; (,1997 ;,1999 ;,2004), 108
2006 9 : 1989 1991 1993 1997 2000 114 612 616 313 510,,, 1993 2000, 616 715 415 813 1015, (,2006) ( ),,,, (variation), ( ) 11 3 ( (1 ) (3) ) 1 ; 2, 0119 ;, :2000, 0133, 1989 1991 1993 1997 0121 0111 0115 0110,,, 3 2 5, 2000, 2000 3 3 5,, 20 90 ( 3 ),1989 1991 1993 0114 0123 0118, 1989 1993 1 % 5 % 2000 0116 0113 20 90,,, 2000,,, 3 4, :1993,, 1993 2000 1989 1991 1993 1997 117 119 312 ( 5 % 5 % 1 % ) 018 ( ), : (1), 2000 (2),, 109
: 3,,, 3 = ( wd T, = 1Π = 0) (1) wd T - 1 0. 1857 333 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (0. 0240) wd T - 1 D00 0. 3256 333 0. 3077 333 0. 3258 333 0. 3436 333 (0. 0491) (0. 0495) (0. 0499) (0. 0533) wd T - 1 D89 - wd T - 1 D00 (2) - 0. 2094 333-0. 1643 333-0. 1779 333-0. 1881 (0. 0594) (0. 0601) (0. 0608) (0. 1244) wd T - 1 D91 - wd T - 1 D00-0. 1059 3-0. 0748-0. 0972-0. 1334 33 (0. 0605) (0. 0611) (0. 0619) (0. 0669) wd T - 1 D93 - wd T - 1 D00-0. 1468 33-0. 1256 33-0. 1666 333-0. 2011 333 (0. 0597) (0. 0600) (0. 0608) (0. 0645) wd T - 1 D97 - wd T - 1 D00-0. 1026 3-0. 0886-0. 0976-0. 1063 3 (0. 0580) (0. 0592) (0. 0606) (0. 0631) D00 0. 0037 0. 0092 (0. 0071) (0. 0077) D89 - D00 0. 0171 33-0. 0387 3 (0. 0081) (0. 0199) D91 - D00 0. 0192 33 0. 0174 33 (0. 0080) (0. 0085) D93 - D00 0. 0324 333 0. 0327 333 (0. 0081) (0. 0085) D97 - D00 0. 0083 0. 007 (0. 0082) (0. 0085) 0. 0303 (Official T - 1 ) (0. 0609) R2 Between 0. 1123 0. 0702 0. 0989 0. 1769 0. 1583 R2 Within 0. 0191 0. 0314 0. 0392 0. 0503 0. 0563 R2 Overall 0. 1024 0. 0749 0. 0874 0. 1512 0. 1373 N 4486 4485 4381 4381 3576 : (1) (2) wd T - 1 D89 - wd T - 1 D00 wd T - 1 D89 wd T - 1 D00, 4 (3) wd T - 1 ( = 1, = 0), T - 1 ;D89 - D00 4 (4) 333 33 3 1 % 5 % 10 % ; ; (5) 3 5 110
2006 9 4 = ( wd T, = 1Π = 0) A : 1989 1991 1993 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) wd T - 1 D89 0. 0951 33 0. 0967 33 0. 1387 333 0. 1292 333 0. 1263 333 (0. 0378) (0. 0419) (0. 0385) (0. 0424) (0. 0426) wd T - 1 D91 - wd T - 1 D89 0. 1340 333 0. 0866 3 0. 1018 33 0. 0589 0. 0665 (0. 0442) (0. 0518) (0. 0457) (0. 0521) (0. 0529) wd T - 1 D93 - wd T - 1 D89 0. 1178 33 0. 0974 3 0. 0425 0. 0326 0. 0384 (0. 0498) (0. 0561) (0. 0520) (0. 0575) (0. 0591) 0. 0128 333 0. 0112 333 0. 0106 333 (0. 0031) (0. 0031) (0. 0033) - 0. 0247 333-0. 0236 333-0. 0257 333 (0. 0067) (0. 0067) (0. 0068) D89 0. 1468 333 0. 1587 333 0. 1579 333 (0. 0267) (0. 0271) (0. 0273) D91 - D89 0. 0044-0. 0022-0. 0067 (0. 0243) (0. 0250) (0. 0256) D93 - D89-0. 001-0. 0107-0. 0208 (0. 0263) (0. 0270) (0. 0278) R2 between 0. 0904 0. 3329 0. 1659 0. 3825 0. 3396 R2 within 0. 0383 0. 0573 0. 0651 0. 086 0. 1026 R2 overall 0. 0982 0. 2911 0. 1731 0. 3437 0. 321 N 2536 2476 2501 2439 2344 B : 1997 2000 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) wd T - 1 D00 0. 3268 333 0. 2468 333 0. 3443 333 0. 2621 333 0. 2287 333 (0. 0687) (0. 0782) (0. 0708) (0. 0810) (0. 0774) wd T - 1 D97 - wd T - 1 D00 0. 0037-0. 0202-0. 005-0. 0068 0. 0045 (0. 0692) (0. 0805) (0. 0743) (0. 0870) (0. 0828) 0. 3268 333 0. 3267 333 0. 3317 333 ( = 1Π = 0) (0. 0377) (0. 0385) (0. 0406) 0. 0239 0. 0034 0. 0229 ( = 1Π = 0) (0. 1155) (0. 1185) (0. 1243) D00 0. 2219 333 0. 2301 333 0. 2128 333 (0. 0440) (0. 0467) (0. 0445) D97 - D00-0. 006-0. 0333-0. 0346 (0. 0420) (0. 0471) (0. 0449) R2 between 0. 1313 0. 2422 0. 1067 0. 1852 0. 2317 R2 within 0. 1407 0. 1008 0. 1575 0. 1119 0. 1992 R2 overall 0. 1438 0. 2085 0. 1323 0. 1689 0. 234 N 1670 1542 1611 1488 1488 : 3 5 21, 90, :, 111
:,,, 90, (,1999), (,2003),,, 1989 1991 1993, 1997 2000, 4 A 1989 1991 1993 (1) (2), 3 :1989, 011,1991 1993 1989 011,, 1991 1993,1989, 1991 1993 ( 3 5 ), ;, :,, 10, 115 4 B 1997 2000 1 2, 1 3, 2000 ; 2, 3 4, 1 2 ; 5,, 1997 2000, ;,,, 30 % ; : 10, 2 4 1989 1993 1997 2000 :,1997 2000 1993, 3 : 4A 4B, 4 A, 4 B, 16 70 :,,, ; 16 70 (2006) u h + ht 112 93 93 89 twd T- ht 1 : wdht T = 89 td t + D t + X + u h + 00 00 97 twd T- 1 ht wd ht T = 97 td t + ht D t + X +
2006 9 1989 1993, (12 ), 13, 1997 2000, 30,1993, 1997 2000,,, 5 (OLS) = A : B : 1989 1991 1993 1989 1991 1993 0. 3965 333 0. 4226 333 0. 5611 333-0. 5001 333-0. 2001 3-0. 0133 (0. 085) (0. 065) (0. 061) (0. 159) (0. 112) (0. 085) Adj. R2 0. 0328 0. 0607 0. 121 0. 1116 0. 054 0. 0039 N 788 717 746 128 128 173 : 6 5 6 5 A, 1989 1991 1993, 0140 0142 0156 ( 1 % ),,B,, ;, 4 A,,, 1993,,, 6 1997 2000,, : ( ), logit, 6 (relative risk ratio, RRR),,, RRR > 1, 6 A 1997 2000, : ( RRR 1, 1 %,, 0, Tobit, Tobit OLS 113
: 1997 ), ( ) 6 B RRR 1,, RRR 1997 2000 1,, 6 1997 2000 A : Π B : Π A : Π B : Π RRR S. E. RRR S. E. RRR S. E. RRR S. E. 1. 671 (0. 473) 0. 535 (0. 233) 3. 018 333 (0. 741) 1. 553 (0. 400) 0. 510 (0. 455) 3. 534 (2. 635) 0. 266 (0. 295) 2. 060 (1. 071) 7. 172 333 (1. 642) 2. 160 333 (0. 488) 5. 591 333 (1. 144) 2. 559 333 (0. 450) 1. 297 333 (0. 076) 1. 137 (0. 096) 1. 206 333 (0. 062) 1. 016 (0. 053) R2 - Psuedo 0. 2332 0. 1599 N 653 831,, ( ) 90,,, 7 A,, : 2000 1989 1991 1993 0125 0114 0108 :, 1997,, (,2006),, ( ) : ( ) ( Zhang Li (2001) (2005) (2005) CHNS (2006), logit, 114
2006 9 ),,,, 7 B,,,, 90 1990 7 = ( = 1Π = 0) A 1989 1991 1993 1997 2000 0. 4107 333 0. 3052 333 0. 2343 333 0. 1020 333 0. 1465 333 ( = 1Π = 0) (0. 031) (0. 032) (0. 031) (0. 034) (0. 033) B = ( = 1Π = 0) 0. 0894 33 0. 0261 0. 0936 333 0. 1001 333 0. 1262 333 ( = 1Π = 0) (0. 039) (0. 034) (0. 031) (0. 030) (0. 029) : (1) A, ; 4422, R2 0127 0109 0126 (2) B, ; 4422, R2 0103 0110 0175 CHNS,, ;, :2000,,,1997 2000, ;, ;,,,,,, CHNS (2006), logit,, 115
:,,,2003 :, S. D murger M. Fournier,2005 :, 6,2004 :, 8,1999 :, 6,2004 :,,1992 :,,,2003 :,,,2005 :, 6,2006 :,,1999 :,,1997 :, 2 Altonj, Joseph G., F. Hayashi, and Laurence Kotlikoff, 1992, Is the Extended Family Altruistically Linked? Direct Tests Using Micro Data, A. E. R., Dec. Vol. 82, No. 5. Becker, G. and Tomes, N, 1986, Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families, Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 4, No. 3, Part 2 : The Family and the Distribution of Economics Rewards, July, S1 S39. Behrman, J. and Paul, Taubman, 1985, Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in the United States : Some Estimates and a Test of Beckerπs Intergenerational Endowments Model, Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 67, No. 1. Cheng, Y. and Dai, J, 1995, Intergenerational Mobility in Modern China, European Sociological Review, Vol. 11, No. 1, May. Kochar, A., 2000, Parental Benefits from Intergenerational Coresidence : Empirical Evidence from Rural Pakistan, J. P. E. Dec., 108 (6) : pp. 1184 1209. 3. Harris, J. R., and Todaro, M. P., 1970, Migration, Unemployment and Development : A Two2sector Analysis, A. E. R. 60 :126 42. Hayashi, Fumio, 1995, Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked?A Test Based on Engel Curves, J. P. E., Vol. 103, No. Lewis, W. A., 1954, Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor, Manchester school 28, pp. 139 191 Solon, G., 1999, Intergenerational Mobility, In Orley Ashenfelter and David Card (eds. ), Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier. Solon, G., 1992, Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States, A. E. R., June, 82 :3, pp. 393 408. Zhang, Xiaobo and Li Guo, 2003, Does Guanxi Matter to Nonfarm Employment? Journal of Comparative Economics, 31(2) : 315 331. Intergenerational Mobility of Off2farm Job Opportunities in Rural China Xing Chunbing (School of Economics and Business Administration, Beijing Normal University) Abstract :This article estimates the effect of house headsπjob opportunities on those of their sons in the 1990s. Using a longitudinal data set (CHNS), cross section estimates show that the intergenerational correlation of off2farm job opportunities decreased in the 1990s, indicating rising mobility. Human capital explains part of the correlation. Time2invariant factors account for significant part of the correlation as well, especially in the early 1990s. In fixed effect models, the intergenerational correlation increased. Key Words : Off2farm Job ; Intergenerational Mobility ; Fixed Effect JEL Classification :C350, J620, O150 ( : ) ( : ) 116