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1 Vol. 41 No. 2 March Population Research * Determinants and Effects of Return Migration in China Ren Yuan Shi Wen Abstract This paper examines the factors associated with return migration using data from a survey on rural labour transfer and urbanization in seven provinces in central-west China. Rural return migration is influenced on the one hand by employment status income and social security exclusion in cities and on the other hand by family life family labor size and land acquisitions in the villages. Return migration is a combined result of active return and passive return and of individual and family decision making. The authors analyze the positive effects of return migration resulting in Brain Gain based on migrants' human capital accumulation during their migration. Returned migrants are more likely to engage in non-agricultural activities and self-entrepreneurship. Migration and return migration jointly help mobilize labor market and promote rural-urban development in China. Keyw ords Rural Migrants Return Migration Return Migration Effect Migration Effect Authors Ren Yuan is Professor Demography and Urban Studies Institute of Population Research Fudan University Shanghai China. yren@ fudan. edu. cn Shi Wen is Master Student Institute of Population Research Fudan University Shanghai China @ fuan. edu. cn * 2012WSH002
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4 Brain Drain Brain Gain Zhao 2002 Ma 2002 Zhao 2002 Zhao % ~ 40% Murphy Kapur
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6 % 40. 5% 31 ~ % 38. 8% 24. 9% 18. 1% 1 1 Table 1 Basic Situation of Returned Rural Labors Out-Migrant Labors and Non-Migrant Labors % % % 15 ~ ~ ~ % % %
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8 logistic Table 2 Logistic Model on Factors of Return Migration of Rural Labors Odds Ratio S. E. Odds Ratio S. E. Odds Ratio S. E. = *** ~ ~ *** *** *** ~ *** *** *** *** *** = *** *** *** = *** *** = = *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** * = *** *** = *** *** = *** *** = *** *** *** *** LR chi *** *** *** Log likelihood Pseudo R N *** p < ** p < * p < Odds Ratio = 1 = ~ /
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10 80 41 Table 3 3 logistic Logistic Model on Rural Migrants' Non-Agricultural Employment and Intention of Self-Entrepreneurship 4 5 Odds Ratio S. E. Odds Ratio S. E. = *** ** *** *** *** *** = *** = *** *** = ** *** ** = *** *** = * *** *** *** LR chi *** *** Log likelihood Pseudo R N *** p < ** p < * p < = 1 = 0 3 = 1 =
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12 82 41 /References Bai Nansheng and He Yupeng Return or Migrate Labor Return in Anhui and Sichuan Provinces. Sociological Studies Cai He and Wang Jin Permanent Migration Intention of Peasant Workers. Sociological Studies China Population Today National Bureau of Statistics Employment Survey of Returned Migrants in China. China Population Today Li Chunling Rural-Urban Migration and Social Mobility. Jiangsu Social Science Li Nan Influencing Factors of the Intention of Stay or Return for Rural-Urban Migrants. Chinese Journal of Population Science Li Qiang and Long Wenjin Factors Affecting the Intention of Stay or Return for Peasant Migrants. Chinese Rural E- conomy Luo Kai Migrant Labor Occupational Transfer and Entrepreneurship. The Journal of World Economy Niu Jianlin Human Capital and Returning Decision of Migrant Workers in the Era of Emerging Urban Labor Shortage. Population Research Ren Yuan Urbanization Comprised by Labors' Migrating and Returning Jiangsu Social Sciences Ren Yuan Migrants'Residential Pattern and Their Social Integration. Shanghai Sanlian Press Shi Zhilei Tan Yu and Wu Haitao Household Income Structure of Returned Migrants and Their Intention of Entrepreneurship. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics Tao Ran and Xu Zhigang Urbanization Rural Land System and Migrants' Social Security. Economic Research Journal Wang Xiyu Cui Chuanyi and Zhao Yang Labor Migration and Return Migration Employment Transition and Rural Development. Management World Wang Zicheng and Zhao Zhong Dynamic Selection of Migration Patterns of Peasant Labors Out-Migration Return Migration or Re-Migration. Management World Wu Zhenjun and Cui Chuanyi. Impacts of Human Capital on Income Increase of Returned Migrants. Technology Economics
13 Wu Zhenjun Zheng Liwen and Cui Chuanyi Returning Rural Migrant Labors Theoretic and Empirical Analysis based on Human Capital Returns. Economic Theory and Economic Management " " Yue Zhongshan Li Shuzhuo and Friedman Wandering at Crossroad A Comparative Study on Development Intention of Two Generations of Rural Migrant Workers. Population and Economics Zhang Liangyue and Liu Dong Transfer of Land Security Rights Labor Migration and Efficient Use of Rural Land. Chinese Journal of Population Science Zhao Yang and Sun Xiulin Temporary Migration and Policy Effects for Returning Entrepreneurship. Rural Economic Problems Zhou Hao and Liang Zai Returning Migrants Analysis based on 2000 Census Data. Population Research Bogue D Principles of Demography. John Wiley and Sons. 22 Borjas G. Bratsberg B Who Leaves The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born. Review of Economics & Statistics Constant A. Massey D Return Migration by German Guestworkers Neoclassical Versus New Economic Theory. International Migration Hu F. Xu Z. Chen Y Circular Migration or Permanent Stay Evidence from China's Rural-urban Migration. China Economic Review Kapur D Remittance The New Development Mantra G-24 Discussion Papers Lee E A theory of Migration. Demography Lewis W Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School Ma Z Social-capital Mobilization and Income Returns to Entrepreneurship The Case of Return Migration in Rural China. Environment& Planning A Murphy R Return Migrant Entrepreneurs and Economic Diversification in Two Counties in South Jiangxi China. Journal of International Development Olesen H Migration Return and Development An Institutional Perspective. International Migration Stark O. and Levhari D On Migration and Risk in LDCs. Economic Development & Cultural Change Todaro M A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. American Economic Review Todaro M Rural-urban Migration Unemployment and Job Probabilities Recent Theoretical and Empirical Research. in Coale A. ed. Economic Factors in Population Growth. Palgrave Macmillan UK Vadean F. and Piracha M Circular Migration or Permanent Return What Determines Different Forms of Migration. IZA Discussion Paper No Wang W. and Fan C Success or Failure Selectivity and Reasons of Return Migration in Sichuan and Anhui China. Environment & Planning A Zhao Y Causes and Consequences of Return Migration Recent Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics
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