12 2 2013 1 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.12No.2 January2013 范子英石慧 * 摘要 1958 : 1959 1960 关键词 一 引 言 1959 1961 (2005) 71% 37.1% (1957 ) (20062007) ;Mengetal.(2010) 1959 * ; : 1037 430074; :18672961981;E-mail:ivannj@163.com ( :11YJC790039) ( :11049) ( :2011WC001) 20
494 ( ) 12 (reversal) 1959 1348 1 40% (Berstein1984) : (Yang 1996;KungandLin2003); (KungandChen2011) 1959 1014 28 1957 LinandYang (2000) 1 1960 1958 1960 1958 1960 2 1958 1958 1 82% 84%( 2010) 2 ; ( )
2 : 495 1 : (1949 1989 ; (1949 1983) (LiandYang2005) 1958 1959 1960 3 1954 1966 : ; ; ; ; 二 制度背景 : 统购统销与大跃进 1953 3 : ;
496 ( ) 12 4 1953 ( 1997) 5 1955 ( ) ( ) ( ) 1956 1958 15 6 1959 2500 1.5 4 5 1954 (Walker1984) 6
2 : 497 ; ; 1959 1014 1348 5000 1959 15% 3400 32% 2 1958 1957 950 1960 2977 1961 1960 37% 40% 1960 38% 1959 57% 1964 2 : (1949 1989 ; (1949 1983)
498 ( ) 12 三 作用机制及理论假说 ; ( ) 1958 1958 2100 1960 5044 1957 (Lardy1987) (2011) 1961 2000 7 1700 (Riskin1987) 7 150 316
2 : 499 8 1 1 ( / ) 16 10 8 8 5 3 ( ) : : (2011) ( ) 1958 80% 96.2% 91% 81.5% 77.7% ( 1997) 1957 1957 9 10 11 3 1958 1960 1958 170 1959 205 8 1958 1959 9 1958 4 10 1958 300 11
500 ( ) 12 1959 28 110 12 3 : (1949 1983) 1957 1960 90 1959 1960 : 1960 (Walker1984;KungandChen2011) 29.5 1957 58.4 13 1958 1960 2 1960 22.28 61% 12 : 1957 69% 13 1959 49 14.4
2 : 501 2 ( ) 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 392.1 431.2 426.1 449.1 316.4 267.9 231 287 340.1 87 91.2 99.62 107.63 120.24 98.65 71.24 66.82 74.43 31.59 44.38 58.39 39.75 49 29.47 6-2.15 9.6 12.16 14.5 19.7 19.28 18.64 22.28 18 12.78 17.94 : : (1949 1983) (1950 1991) : 1958 1959 四 数据 模型及实证分析 ( ) (1949 1983) ( Kung andlin2003;kungandchen2011; 2010 ) 1983 (1949 1989) 1960 ( ) 1957 ( ) ( 4 ); 1959 ( ) 1957 ( ) 20 4 ; 1957 1958 1957 1957
502 ( ) 12 ( ) 4 : (1949 1989) ( ) 1954 1966 27 1953 1967 : Dr it =β 0Grainit + β1d Grain+γ0Ibit +γ1d Ibit +λ0ubit +λ1d Ub it +Xθ+αi +εit Dr it i t αi 14 Grain D 1958 1961 1 0Ib Ub X β 0 β 1 14 ( )
2 : 503 β 0 β 1 0 ( 2006;Mengetal.2010) β 1 0 γ0 1958 γ1 LinandYang (2000) λ1 0; λ0 ( ) 3 1959 1958 1961 Mengetal.(2010)
504 ( ) 12 3 Grain D Grain Ub D Ub (1)RE (2)FE (3)FE (4)FE (5)FE (6)FE (7)FE -64.474 *** (25.518) 79.144 *** (12.512) -22.424 (38.761) -15.816 (23.652) Ib 5.714 (4.662) D Ib 1 D 14.583 *** (3.551) -4.512 (36.764) -40.821 * (23.025) 9.985 * (5.170) -22.939 *** (3.628) 1.981 (4.456) 37.085 *** (4.886) -23.991 (45.357) -71.077 *** (25.469) 13.521 *** (4.979) -24.384 *** (3.786) 3.405 (5.332) 43.965 *** (6.100) -0.279 * (0.145) -0.077 (0.056) -21.211 (50.187) -115.002 *** (31.152) 11.955 (7.564) -21.304 *** (5.467) 3.101 (6.182) 50.489 *** (7.018) -0.372 ** (0.170) 0.093 (0.060) -34.224 (54.375) -113.783 *** (35.070) 8.356 (8.088) -18.172 *** (5.821) 2.947 (6.357) 57.323 *** (7.647) -0.374 ** (0.174) -0.102 * (0.061) -2.181 * (1.147) -18.372 (53.573) -133.379 *** (35.383) 12.988 * (7.799) -21.187 *** (5.699) 3.964 (6.349) 50.814 *** (7.355) -0.359 * (0.183) -0.101 * (0.061) D 0.028 (0.032) 14.470 *** (1.490) 10.722 *** (2.754) 8.228 *** (2.885) 11.573 *** (3.421) 14.189 *** (4.034) 18.135 *** (2.364) 13.585 *** (4.387) R-sq 0.135 0.193 0.284 0.341 0.367 0.375 0.379 HausmanP 0.131 0.014 0.085 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 364 351 351 295 256 243 243 : ; * ** *** 10% 5% 1% ; 1954 1966 27 ( ) Hausman P 0.1 ; LinandYang (2000) 1959 1961 15 1944 1945 1941 1943 ( Gr da2011) 1958 15 (1961 1 20 )
2 : 505 16 37 44 17 18 (Yang1996;Changand Wen1997; KungandChen2011 ) 1956 1958 (Yang1996); (KungandLin2003) 1958 1958 6 1960 12 1956 16 LinandYang(2000) (2006) (2010) 17 18
506 ( ) 12 0.146 0.573 1955 1957 ( ) 22.3%1958 1961 12.9% 21.5% 29.7% 15.4% 11.6 61.3% 19 1958 1961 1959 1960 D Ib (Ib) 5 1958 1959 1960 1960 1 0.44 5 : ; 19 18.9 11.6 (=(12.9+21.5+29.7+15.4) 0.146 ) =11.6 /18.9 =61.3%
2 : 507 4 0.7 1960 1957 26.5 18.6 56% 20 21 1953 1966 1959 338 1954 (329 ) 1958 1961 1959 1954 1.5 Grain 0.020 (0.016) Ub D Ub Ib D Ib 4 ( ) ( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.010 *** (0.003) 0.007 *** (0.002) 0.030 *** (0.011) 0.009 *** (0.002) 0.006 *** (0.001) -0.015 * (0.008) 0.0001 (0.0001) 0.001 (0.001) 0.303 *** (0.022) 0.012 *** (0.004) 0.007 *** (0.003) 0.340 *** (0.016) 0.008 *** (0.003) -0.005 ** (0.002) -0.005 *** (0.002) 0.018 *** (0.002) 0.321 *** (0.017) 0.008 ** (0.003) -0.006 ** (0.002) -0.007 *** (0.002) 0.017 *** (0.002) D 0.0003 (0.0004) 20 1960 1957 33 18.6/33=56% 21 :1) 1959 2 6 ( 2011);2) 20 50 (1949 1983) 1970 50 7 : ;3) ( 2011)
508 ( ) 12 ( ) ( ) ( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.008 *** (0.001) 0.003 *** (0.001) 0.005 *** (0.001) -0.007 *** (0.002) -0.006 *** (0.001) 0.005 *** (0.001) R-sq 0.142 0.211 0.025 0.424 0.653 0.677 HausmanP 0.000 0.000 0.744 0.000 0.001 312 312 312 312 312 299 : * ** *** 10% 5% 1% 1954 1966 24 ( ) Hausman P 0.1 ( 4 ) :1) ;2) ;3) 1958 1 1.8 1959 71.2% 22 1958 1959 1960 五 结 论 1959 1961 22 1959 1957 18.2% 46.1 1.8 18.2/46.1=71.2%
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