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1 () China Econo mic Quarterly Vol. 6, No. 2 J anuary, 2007 : , ;,, ( FAD),,, FAD,,, ( Sen, 1981),, %21 %,,,,,,, ; , , 1, , 100 7, (, 2005), 3 :,, ; (025) ; E2mail com CCER,, 1,,

2 488 () 6,,, (, 2005),,, 1952,, 50,,,,,,,, 1953, (, 1988),,, ( Walker, 1984),,,, 2,, ,,, (, 1991),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1954,,,,, ( ), ,,, 1958,2000,4532, (,1984)

3 2 : 489,,,,,,,,,,, 1958,, 11, % (, 1988),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Lin and Yang, 2000 ; ),, 3,,,,, 2005,,,,,,,, ,, :, ;,, ;, ; 3,,,,

4 490 () 6, Panel data ;,,,, ( Food Availabil2 ity Decline, FAD), FAD,, FAD,,, ( Entitlement),,,,, 4, (), (),,,, (),,,,,,,,, 20 80, ,, Ansley (1981) ; John (1982) Peng (1987) 2300 ; Ashton (1984) 2950 ; Banister (1987) 3000 ; (1993) ,,,, 5,

5 2 : , ; Cheng (1994) 4300 ; 3300 (Ashton et al., 1984) ; ,, , , FAD,,,, (, 2005) FAD,,, FAD,, ,,, (Lin, 1990),,,, 1958,,, ;, Yang and Li (2005),,,, ;, ( Yang, 1996) (Chang and Wen, 1997),, (, 2003),, ,,, (, 1994),,,,

6 492 () 6, (Lin and Yang, 2000),,, ;,,,, (Bernstein, 1985),,,, 6,,,, ( ),, 7,,,,,, 1953, 1958 ;,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,, ,,,, 6,,,,,, :,, (,1991) , 1957,,1958,,1960

7 2 : 493 () , 1954, 1954,, ; ,,,,,, ; 1986, 1982 ( ), ,, % %, %, %, 1960, 1. 4,,, 1 ( ) :,,, , 1982

8 494 () 6, , ;,,, %,, 3,,,, 1961, 1961,, , 1962,, : 2 () : 3

9 2 : 495 (, 2005),, 1, 1960, , ,,,,,,,,, 69 %,,,, 5 %, 10,,,,,, 11,,, ,, 12,,,, ;, 45 %, 14,,,, 15 10,( ),,1987,10 11,,,1991,3 12,,,, 13,,,1980,117 14,,,1980,118 15,,, ;,,

10 496 () 6 4 : (),,,,, ;,,, : DR = f ( C, H), DR, C, H,,,,,,

11 2 : 497, : C = f ( G), G :,,,,,,,,,,, 16,, FAD,,, ( FAD), FAD,,,,,,, : G = f ( R, IP, POP,CPP,U P), R, IP, PO P (/ ), CPP, U P (/ ), DR = f ( H, R, IP, PO P,CPP,U P), () 1,, 1959, %, , 1959, 1960, 1963, ,,, %, 16,,,,,,,,(1)

12 498 () 6, 1960,,, 1964,, , 1965,,,,, , %, 1959,, %, %, 1962, 1 ( ) ( %) () ( %) (1/ 10 ) :,, ( ) :, ( ),

13 2 : 499 (),, : 1.,,,,,, (Chang and Wen, 1997),, 2.,,,,, () ( Panel data), :, ;, ; 1957, (unbalanced panels), (balanced panels), : lndrit = Ci + 2 Y t + 3 IPit + 4 lnpopit + 5 lncppit + 6 U Pit + it. (1) 0,, Ci,,,,,, Y t,,,,

14 500 () 6,,,, , 0,,, (1) : lndrit = Ci + 2 Y t + 3 IPit + 4 lnpo Pit + 5 lncppit + 6 U Pit + 7 lndrit DIPit + 9 lndpo Pit + 10 DlnCPPit + 11 DU Pit + 12 DlnDRit it. (2), lncpp, 5 0,, ,,, ( ) < 0 ;,,,,, ( ) < 0 ( ) > 0 ( ) < 0, ;,,, 12 0,, 7 0,,,, : R1 R2 R3, 1959, R1 = 1, 0 ; 1960, R2 = 1, 0 ; 1961, R3 = 1, 0 15, (2) : lndrit = Ci + 2 Y t + 3 IPit + 4 lnpo Pit + 5 lncppit + 6 U Pit + 7 lndrit R1 IPit + 9 R1 lnpo Pit + 10 R1 lncppit + 11 R1 U Pit + 12 R1lnDRit R2 IPit + 14 R2 lnpopit + 15 R2lnCPPit + 16 R2 U Pit + 17 R2lnDRit R3 IPit + 19 R3 lnpopit + 20 R3lnCPPit + 21 R3 U Pit + 22 R3 lndrit it, (3) , , ,,,,

15 2 : lndr Log( ), = U P, = / IP lnpop, = ( ) / Log( ), = ( ) / lncpp Log () ( ) D R1 R2 R3,1, ,1959 1,0 1960,1960 1,0 1961,1961 1,0 (2) (3),, :,, (2) (3),,,,,,,,,, (), 3 (2),,,,, ,, R ,,, 4 (3),, (2),

16 502 () 6 3 (2) (1) (2) (3) (4) U P( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) IP() ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) lncpp() ( ) ( ) (0. 691) (0. 279) lnpop ( ) (1. 359) (1. 631) (2. 303) (1. 935) LnDR t - 1 () ( ) ( ) U P D( ) (0. 258) (0. 578) (4. 313) (4. 708) IP D( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) lncpp D( ) (3. 148) (2. 230) ( ) ( ) lnpop D( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 970) (3. 152) LnDR t - 1 D( ) ( ) ( ) U P t - 1 ( ) (1. 204) (1. 327) IP t - 1 () ( ) (0. 358) lncpp t - 1 () ( ) ( ) lnpopt - 1 ( ) ( ) (0. 385) U P t - 1 D( ) ( ) ( ) IP t - 1 D( ) (1. 295) (1. 050) lncpp t - 1 D( ) (3. 461) (3. 244) lnpopt - 1 D( ) ( ) ( ) R : t, 3 1 %, %, % :, ( ),1982 ;,,1986

17 2 : 503 (2), IPlnCPP,,, ; U P lnpo P 10 %,,,,,,,,,, lncppt - 1,,,,,,,,, (2), lncpp, lncppt - 1,,,,,, lncpp D lncppt - 1 lncppt - 1 D, ,,, (U P U P D ),,,,, (U Pt - 1 U Pt - 1 D ),,, ( IP D IPt - 1 IPt - 1 D ), ( IPt - 1 IPt - 1 D ),,,,,,,, (lnpoplnpop D lnpo Pt - 1 lnpopt - 1 ), CPP FAD, FAD, U PIP POP, D

18 504 () 6,, lncpp lncpp D, U P U P D IP D lnpop lnpo P D, FAD, , , (3), 4, 2,, U PIP lnpop lncpp (2),, 1959 (U Pt - 1 R1 ) 1960 ( U Pt - 1 R2 ), 1961 ( U Pt - 1 R3 ) ;,, (U P) , 1961,, 1959, 1960, ( CPP),,, ;, ( POP),, 4 (3) (1) (2) (3) (4) U P( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) IP() ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) lncpp() ( ) ( ) (1. 613) (0. 895) lnpop ( ) (1. 386) (1. 633) (2. 022) (1. 988) LnDR t - 1 () ( ) ( )

19 2 : 505 ( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) U P t - 1 ( ) (1. 313) (1. 467) IP t - 1 () ( ) (0. 280) lncpp t - 1 () ( ) ( ) lnpopt - 1 ( ) ( ) (0. 276) U P R1 (1959 ) ( ) (1. 043) (1. 603) (6. 373) IP R1 (1959 ) ( ) (0. 763) ( ) (1. 973) lncpp R1 (1959 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) lnpop R1 (1959 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) LnDR t - 1 R1 (1959 ) (4. 668) (6. 702) U P R2 (1960 ) (0. 370) (1. 031) (2. 657) (3. 302) IP R2 (1960 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) lncpp R2 (1960 ) (5. 880) (5. 632) (5. 626) (4. 744) lnpop R2 (1960 ) (0. 807) (0. 491) (2. 974) (4. 321) LnDR t - 1 R2 (1960 ) ( ) ( ) U P R3 (1961 ) (0. 855) (0. 587) (1. 385) (0. 951) IP R3 (1961 ) ( ) ( ) (0. 718) (0. 341) lncpp R3 (1961 ) (2. 765) (2. 664) (0. 689) (0. 616) lnpop R3 (1961 ) ( ) ( ) (1. 792) (2. 264) LnDR t - 1 R3 (1961 ) ( ) ( ) U P t - 1 R1 (1959 ) ( ) ( ) IP t - 1 R1 (1959 ) (0. 888) ( ) lncpp t - 1 R1 (1959 ) (5. 775) (2. 960)

20 506 () 6 ( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) lnpopt - 1 R1 (1959 ) (1. 644) (3. 472) U P t - 1 R2 (1960 ) ( ) ( ) IP t - 1 R2 (1960 ) (3. 254) (2. 922) lncpp t - 1 R2 (1960 ) ( ) ( ) lnpopt - 1 R2 (1960 ) ( ) ( ) U P t - 1 R3 (1961 ) ( ) ( ) IP t - 1 R3 (1961 ) ( ) ( ) lncpp t - 1 R3 (1961 ) (1. 441) (1. 541) lnpopt - 1 R3 (1961 ) ( ) ( ) R : t, 3 1 %, %, % :, ;, (), ( ),, ,,,,,,, ;,,,,

21 2 : 507,,, :, : lndr54 58 lndr59 61 lndr62 77 = IP lnpop , (4) = IP lnpop , (5) = IP lnpop (6) IP ( ) PO P ( ) , DR , DR ,, (4) (6) ; DR , (5),,, (5), DR IP POP, CHOW, , 5 (4) (5) (6),, 5 %,,,, ; ( ), ; ( ),,, F,, R 2 ( PO P), , CHOW,,

22 508 () 6 5 lndr ( ) lndr ( ) lndr ( ) IP() ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) lnpop ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) R F P CHOW F P : t, 3 1 %, %, % :,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,

23 2 : 509,,,,,,, ;,,, 1958,,, 1959,, (1),,, 1958, 1961,,,,, ( ), () ( %) () ( %) :,,,1980,109

24 510 () 6 [ 1 ] Aird, J.,Population Studies and Population Policy in China, Population and Development Re2 view, Vol. 8, No. 2 (J un., 1982), [ 2 ] Ashton, B., K. Hill, A. Pizza and R. Zeitz,Famine in China, , Population and De2 velopment review, 1984, 10 (4), [ 3 ] Banister, J., China s Changing Pop ulation. Stanford : Stanford University Press, [ 4 ] Berstein, T.,Stalinism, Famine, and Chinese Peasant s : Grain Procurement During t he Great Leap Forward, Theory and S ociet y, 1984, 13 (3), [ 5 ] Chang, G. and J. Wen,Communical Dining and t he Chinese Famine of , Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1997, 46 (1), [ 6 ] Chen, Chu2yuan., China s Economic Develop ment : Growth and S t ructural Change. Boulder : Westview, [ 7 ], ,, ,14 28 [ 8 ] Coale, A. J.,Population Trends, Population Policy, and Population Studies in China, Popula2 tion and Development Review, 1981, 7 (1), [ 9 ],( ) :,1987 [ 10 ], ,,2005 1, [ 11 ],:, 1999 [ 12 ],, 1986 [ 13 ], ( ), 1982 [ 14 ],:,1991 [ 15 ],, ,13 22 [ 16 ],:,1991 [ 17 ] Johnson, D. G.,China s Great Famine : Introductory Remarks., China Economic Review, 1998, 9 (2), [ 18 ] Kung, J. and J ustin Yifu Lin,The Causes of China s Great Leap Famine, , Eco2 nomic Develop ment and Cultural Change, 2003, 52 (1), [ 19 ] Kung, J., and L. Putterman,China s Collectivization Puzzle : A New Resolution. J ournal of Development S t udies, 1997, 33, [ 20 ] Li, W. and D. T. Yang,The Great Leap Forward : Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster, J ournal of Political Econom y, 2005, 113 (4), [ 21 ], ::,1994 [ 22 ] Lin, J ustin Yifu.,Collectivization and China s Agricultural Crisis in , J ournal of Po2 litical Econom y, 1990, Vol. 98, No. 6,

25 2 : 511 [ 23 ] Lin, J ustin Yifu, and D. T. Yang,On t he Causes of China s Agricultural Crisis and the Great Leap Famine, China Economic Review, 1998, 9 (2), [ 24 ] Lin, J ustin Yifu and D. T. Yang,Food Availability, Entitlement s and t he Chinese Famine of , Economic J ournal, 2000, 110 (460), [ 25 ], ( ) :, 1984 [ 26 ] Osmani, S.,The Entitlement Approach to Famine : An Assessment, in K. Basu et al., (eds. ), Choice, Wel f are, and Development : Essays in Honour of A martya Sen. Oxford : Clarendon Press, [ 27 ] Peng, X. Z.,Demographic Consequences of t he Great Leap Forward in China s Provinces, Pop2 ulation and Develop ment Review, 1987, 13 (4), [ 28 ],:,1980 [ 29 ] Sen, Amartya K. Poverty and Famine. Oxford, U. K. : Clarendon Press, [ 30 ] Walker, K. R., Food Grain Procurement and Consum ption in China. New York : Cambridge Uni2 versity Press, [ 31 ] Yang, Dali L. Calamity and Ref orm in China : S tate, Rural Society, and Institutional Change since the Great L eap Famine. Stanford : Stanford University Press, [ 32 ],( ), :,1988 [ 33 ],,,2003 2,54 64 Cash Crop, Food Entitlement and Chinese Famine : A Test on Sen s Entitlement Theory ZIYIN G FAN L IN GJ IE M EN G ( N anj i ng A g ricult ural U ni versit y) Abstract Using panel data to analyze the different death rates across the provinces in the Chinese Famine during the period , this paper concludes that the hierarchical food entitlement system at that time was the main cause for the finding that rural residents in grain producing areas died of hunger with a much higher rate than rural residents in food deficient Areas or urban resident s. Under this hierarchical system, cash crop areas were more privi2 leged than conventional food deficient areas in acquiring food during the famine years. Assum2

26 512 () 6 ing away the effect of the communal dining halls, we find food availability decline ( FAD) and Sen s Entitlement both contributed significantly to the increase in the death rate during the famine, but the latter has more explaining power. JEL Classif ication I38, N55, Q18

50 :, :,,,,, 1959,,,,, 1962 (, 1993 ;, 1999), ( ) (Lin, 1990), 1959 (,1995) (food availability decline,fad) , (,1988) (Chang & Wen,1997 ; Yan

50 :, :,,,,, 1959,,,,, 1962 (, 1993 ;, 1999), ( ) (Lin, 1990), 1959 (,1995) (food availability decline,fad) , (,1988) (Chang & Wen,1997 ; Yan 2003 2 Abstract :This paper is aimed to explain the huge famine from 1959 to 1961. The literature on this topic paid much attention to the trigger mechanism rather than the persistency of the famine. Obviously

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