2005 1 3 ( ) :,,,,, : 20 70,,,McMillan Whalley Zhu (1989), Fan (1991), Lin (1992),Zhang Carter (1997), Fan Pardey (1997),Huang Rosegrant Rozelle (1999) 20 90 McMillan Whalley Zhu 1978 1984 80 %, 20 % Fan 1965 1985, 27 % 63 %, 16 % 37 % Lin,1978 1984 94 % Fan Pardey (1992),, (1994) 1979 1991, 1978,, 3015 % 4416 %, Huang Rosegrant Rozelle (1997) () 1978 1984 3 % 1984 1992 11 %,1978 1992 6 % ;, 1978 1984 18 % 1984 1992 11 %,, Fan Zhang Robinson (2001), 3, 27
: 20,3 %, ( Kanbur Zhang,1999),, (,1994),,,, ( ),, : (1) ; (2) (SOE),,,,,,,, (1) (2) P = f ( AGDPPC, WAGE, NAGEM PL Y, TOT,A POP - 1, PLOAN) (1) AGDPPC = f ( LANDPC, A KPC, RDE, RDE - 1,, IR, SCHY, ROADS, EL ECT, RTR) (2) NAGDPPC = f ( NA KPC, SCHY, ROADS, EL ECT, RTR) (3) WAGE = f ( ROADS, SCHY, RTR, EL ECT,A POP - 1,AGDPPC - 1, UGDP - 1 ) (4) NAGEM PL Y = f ( ROADS, SCHY, RTR, EL ECT,AGDPPC - 1, UGDP - 1 ) (5) (3) IR = f ( IRE, IRE - 1,, IRE - j ) (6) ROADS = f ( ROADE, ROADE - 1,, ROADE - k ) (7) SCHY = f ( EDE, EDE - 1,, EDE - m ) (8) RTR = f ( RTRE, RTRE - 1,, RTRE - l ) (9) EL ECT = f ( PWRE, PWRE - 1,, PWRE - n ) (10) TOT = f ( AGDPPC, NAGDPPC) (11) (1) - (11), 1 ((1) ) ; ((2) - (5) ) ;,(1) ( P) 28
2005 1 GDP,, ( 90 %),,,,,,,,, (SSB,1997),, 1 LANDPC AKPC NAKPC APOP UGPOP IRE RDE ROADE EDE RTRE PWRE PLOAN RAIN P SCHY ROADS IR EL ECT RTR WAGE NAGEMPLY AGDPPC AGDDPPCN NAGDPPC TOT,, GDP, ( ) ( ) (15 ) GDP GDP, (2) (3) (4) (5),, Π, Π, Π,,Π ( UGDP - 1 ),,,,t, - 1,, - jt - 1,, t - j 29
: ( NAGDPPC),,, ( Fan,1991 ; Lin,1992 ; Fan and Pardey,1997),,, (1) (11),, t - i t 5AGD PPC 5 RDE - i = 5AGDPPC 5 RDE - i (12) (12),, 5 NAGDPPC 5 ROADE - i t - i t 5 P 5 RDE - i = 5 P 5AGD PPC + 5AGD PPC 5 RDE - i + 5 P 5 WAGE = 5 NAGDPPC 5 ROADE - i (13) 5 WAGE 5AGD PPC 5AGD PPC 5 RDE - i 5 P 5 NAGEM PL Y 5AGD PPC + 5 P 5 TOT 5AGD PPC (14) 5 NAGEM PL Y 5AGD PPC 5 RDE - i 5 TOT 5AGD PPC 5 RDE - i (14),,,, t - n t 5 P = 5 P 5AGD PPC 5AGD PPC + + 5 P 5 WAGE 5 P 5 NAGEM PL Y 5AGD PPC 5 NAGEM PL Y 5AGD PPC + 5 P 5 WAGE 5 WAGE 5 WAGE 5AGD PPC 5AGD PPC + 5 P 5 TOT 5 TOT 5AGD PPC 5AGD PPC (15),,(15) 1 2 3 4 5 6,, 30
2005 1,(2) (3) : y = a + i x i + u (16) i,, y, x i u, Shorrocks(1982),(16) y 2 y = i cov( y, i x i ) + cov( y, u) = i cov( y, x i ) + cov( y, u) = i i cov( y, x i ) + 2 u (17) i 2 y y,cov( y, 3 ) y (16),y u u y, 2 y,(cowell,1995),shorrocks, (17) (2) (3),,,, Y = a 1 Y 1 + a 2 Y 2 (18) Y Y 1 Y 2 ; a 1 a 2 Shorrocks 6,Gini Atkinson, s 1 = cov( Y, a 1 Y 1 ) 2 Y, s 2 = cov( Y, a 2 Y 2 ) 2 Y I ( Y) = s 1 I ( a 1 Y 1 ) + s 2 I ( a 2 Y 2 ) (19), (17) Y 1 Y 2 (19),20 90, AGDPPC WAGE NAGEMPL Y TOT,,,,,,,, ( ), Akaike (AIC) Schwarz (SIC) R 2 RDE - 1 RDE - 2 RDE - i,, (PDLs) 2 PDLs,, 3 i 31
: + 1, PDLs (1),10 % ( ),,,,,,, RDE PDLs PDLs3 t,,,,,,, (2) (12) - (15), 2001, 2 2 2001 (),,, 2, Davidson and MacKinnon(1993),, 32
2005 1,2 (2001 ), GDP, 8131 9138 11123 9116 1 5187 4179 4126 5116 7193 8181 5162 7117 GDP ( Π, 8186 8131 6198 8113 ) 4178 4196 5136 4198,, GDP 6173 5167 4184 5196 GDP GDP 8131 9138 11123 9116 7 2 5187 4179 4126 5116, 30 % 1137 2128 2146 2114 GDP ( Π 3138 3157 3102 3141 ), GDP GDP 2106 2117 2122 2119 1127 2134 1165 1186 3 6156 6153 3116 5103 5148 4174 3196 4172 GDP ( Π 2172 2179 3114 2179 ) 5146 3133 3119 4110,, 1162 3184 22135 5127 3107 4 0181 1176 4165 2168 ( 0172 1161 6139 3107 2148 4177 28119 7135, 0167 1152 5185 2118,7117 ) 0156 1131 4163 2105 GDP, 0176 0192 1137 1111 : GDP ((1) - (11) ) GDP,, 7 % GDP,, ( ),, GDP GDP, 2118,,, 2168, GDP GDP,,,,, 1, 15 %, 21 %, 50 %,, GDP Rozelle, Zhang and Huang (2000), 33
:,,,, ( ),,,, ;,,,,,,GDP,, GDP 3 1980 2001 1980 01723 01058 01382 01387 01031 01124 01008-01014 01001-01007 01143 1990 01707 01050 01362 01347 01047 01091 01008-01009 01004 01004 01145 2001 01769 01043 01317 01316 01056 01073 01012 01014 01010 01010 01175 1980 11384 01353 01624 01043 01046 01021 01034 01144 1990 11685 01389 01567 01049 01049 01036 01068 01202 2001 31126 01321 01432 01061 01061 01056 01126 01304 1980 11106 01229 01522 01387 01038 01124 01030-01014 01013 01017 01207 1990 11333 01267 01493 01347 01048 01091 01034-01009 01024 01045 01234 2001 21407 01236 01397 01316 01059 01073 01046 01014 01042 01091 01325 : (3), (18), 1980 2001, 11106 21407, 1985 01229 2001 01236,,,, 1980 2001,, 01207 01325,, 01143 01175, 20,,,3,,, ( ),,, 01144 01304, 111 % (4), (1) - (11) 2001,,4 34
2005 1 4 2001, ( : 100, (),,,,,,,, GDP,,, ) 0105 0107-0108 2138 3114-7167 0131 0138-0186 0187 0175-1142 2143 1115-1126 7158 6132-9189 1116 0113-1186 9167 2139-27168 1166 0168-6177 17168 2131-7142 0177 0111-1124 7112 2165-20168 1119 0158-4170 0187 0175-1142 0185 0140-0144 7158 6132-9189 2000, 8 %,,, 20 70 20 90,,, 60 %,, 1978 1979 20 90,,,,, 2 4 :1) ;2),, ;3),,,2001, 35
: GDP 4 %, GDP 914 %,,,,,,,,,,, 20 90,, GDP 013 %, 2 %,( 015 %) ( ), 20 90,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,, 2 10, 4 4,,,,,,,,, 36
2005 1,,,,,,,,, Alston, J.,B. C raig,and P. Pardey,1998, Dynamics in the Creation and Depreciation of Knowledge, and the Returns to Research, EPTD Discussion Paper No. 35,Washington,DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Cowell,Frank,1995,Measuring Inequality,2nd ed. London and New York :Prentice HallΠHarvester Wheatsheaf. Davidson,R. and J. MacKinnon,1993,Estimation and Inference in Econometrics,New York and London :Oxford University Press. Fan, S.,1991, Effects of Technological Change and Institutional Reform on Production Growth in Chinese Agriculture,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,73 :266 275. Fan and Pardey,1997, Research,Productivity,and Output Growth in Chinese Agriculture,Journal of Development Economics,53 :115 137. Fan,Zhang, and Robinson,2003, Structural Change and Economic Growth in China,Review of Development Economics,7 :360 377. Hayami, Y.,and V. Ruttan,1985,Agricultural Development :An international Perspective,Baltimore,Md :John Hopkins University Press. Huang, J.,S. Rozelle, and M. W. Rosegrant,1999, China s Food Economy to the Twenty2First Century : Supply, Demand, and Trade, Economic Development and Cultural Change,47 (4) :737 766. Jacoby,H.,2000, Access to Markets and the Benefits of Rual Roads,Conomic Journal,110 :713 737. Jalan,J.,and M. Ravallion,2000, Geographic Poverty Traps? A Micro Model of Consumption Growth in Rual China,Washington,D. C. : World Bank Mimeo. Lin,B. Q.,1994, Rural Reforms,Structural Change and Agricultural Growth in the People s Republic of China,Asian Development Bank EDRC Reports,No. 62. Lin, J. Y.,1992, Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China,American Economic Review,82 (1) :34 51. McMillan,J.J.,Whalley,and L. G. Zhu,1989, The Impact of China s Economic Reforms on Agricultural Productivity Growth,Journal of Political Economy,97,781 807. Martin,P.,1999, Public Policies,Regional Inequality,and Growth,Journal of Public Economics,73 :85 105. Rozelle,S.,L. Zhang,and J. Huang,2000, China s War on Poverty,Working Paper No. 60. Stanford,Calif :Center for Economic Research on Economic Development and Policy Reform,Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research,Stanford University. Shorrocks,A. F.,1982, Inequality Decomposition by Factor Components,Econometrica,50 (1) :193 211. Government Expenditure and Poverty Reduction in China Lin Boqiang (Asian Development Bank) Abstract :Despite the phenomenal progress in poverty reduction in rural PRC, few studies analyze the sources of growth of this increasingly important sector, in particularly failed to include public investment directly as a source of growth and poverty reduction. This paper points out the knowledge gap in previous studies and develops an analytical framework to fill the gap. The results show that government spending on production - enhancing investments, such as agricultural R&D and irrigation, rural education, and infrastructure including roads, electricity, and telecommunications all contributed to rural productivity growth and reduced regional inequality and rural poverty. But variations in their marginal effects on productivity were large, among the different types of spending as well as across regions. The paper finally draws some conclusions regarding the policy choices based on the empirical results. Key Words :Public Investment ; Poverty Reduction ; Regional Inequality ; Simultaneous Equations Model JEL Classification : H390, H410, R220 ( : ) (: ) 37