smart money 5
1 overconfidence 90% 70%, 2, 3 6
4, 5 6 82 80 1 7 58.27% 22.18% 19.53 39.79 36.45 23.74 72 64 1 Thaler Johnson 1990 7
2 8 42 26 21.33 10.66 58.33 8.33 3 9 (reference point) 10 11 (ambiguity aversion) 12 (mental accounts) Shefrin Statman 2 2003 11 P43 3 2 P44 8
Robert Prentice 4 1 Bounded Search 4 Robert Prentice, Whither Securities Regulation? Some Behavioral Observations Regarding Proposals For Its Future, 51 Duke L. J. 1397 (2001); Lawrence A. Cunningham, Behavioral Finance and Investor Governance (working paper 2001) 9
5 2 Bounded Rationality 6 3 Heuristics bias Availability and Self Attribution Biases heuristics bias 5 Robert J. Shiller and J. Pound, Survey Evidence on the Diffusion of Interest and Information Among Investors, 12 J. of Econ. Behavior and Org. 46 (1989). 6 Cf. Henry T.C. Hu, Misunderstood Derivatives: The Causes of Informational Failure and the Promise of Regulatory Incrementalism, 102 Yale L.J. 1457, 1499 (1993) 10
4 Framing Effects 7 5 Overconfidence Dale Griffin and Amos Tversky 7 Steven M.H. Wallman, Competition, Innovation, and Regulation in the Securities Markets, P53 11
CFTC CFTC 8 CFTC 6 Confirmation Bias 9 1933 1934 1969 7 Groupthink 8 Sanford A. Fine, Back to the(single Stock) Future: The New Regulatory Framework Governing Single-Stock Futures Trading, 54 Admin. L. 9 J. Klayman, Varieties of Confirmation Bias, 32 The Psychology of Learning and Motivation 385(1995). 12
10 11 12 1 10 Irving Janis, Victims of Groupthink (1972). James D. Cox & Harry L. Munsinger, Bias in the Boardroom: Psychological Foundations and Legal Implications of Corporate Cohesion, 48 L. & Contemp. Prob.83, 99-108; Robert J. Haft, Business Decisions by the New Board: Behavioral Science and Corporate Law, 80 Mich. L. Rev. 1, 37-49 (1981) 11 Chip Heath, Richard P. Larrick & Joshua Klayman, Cognitive Repairs: How Organizational Practices Can Compensate for Individual Shortcomings, 20 Res. in Org. Behavior 1 (1998) 12 Jeffrey M. Laderman et al., The Epidemic of Insider Trading, Bus. Wk., Apr. 29, 1995, at 78 13
2 13 3 CFTC CFTC CFTC CFTC 13 Linda Babcock, George Lowenstein & Samuel Issacharoff, Creating Convergence: Debiasing Biased Litigants, 22 J. L. & Soc. Inquiry 913, 920 (1997). 14
1 14 2 14 William O. Douglas, Protecting the Investor, 23 Yale Rev. 521, 524 (1934) 15
3 16
1 2003 5 51 54 2 changyun wang the behavior and performance of major types of futures traders the journal of futures markets 2003 1 1 31 3 2002 3 71 75 4 Barberis, Nicholas, and Ming Huang, 2001, Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns, Journal of Finance 56, 1247-1292 5 DeBondt, Werner F.M., and Richard H. Thaler, 1995, Financial decision making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective, in R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, and W. T. Ziemba, ed.:handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, Volume 9, Finance. pp. 385-410 (Elsevier) 6 Kahneman, Daniel, and Mark W. Riepe, 1998, Aspects of investor psychology, Journal of Portfolio Management, 52-65 7 Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47 263-292 8 2003 4 9 2003 5 10 2003 8 11 12 17
13,,2000:, 2000 14,, 2001 11 26 15,,2001 16,, 1995 17,,, 1995 4,.107 113 18,,, 1998 2 19,,, 1998 5,.58 64 20,, 1998 11,.24 28 21, 2003 5 25 3 22,2002:, 2 23,2001:, 11 24,,2002:, 2 25,2001: :, ( ) 2 26,2001:, 9 27,2002:, ( ) 1 28,1999:, 8 18