2005 6 94 110 20 90 1957 1968 1968 153/69 1 1 12% 20% P=C T W P C T 40 W 2 95 3 1 1 A 1 Massimo Baldini,Carlo Mazzaferro, and Paolo Onofri(February,2000): The reform of the Italian pension system, and its effect on saving behavior, pp.2-3 1
55 35 N / 40 80% 60 35 5 65 65 60 60 60 65 20 15 20 20 25 35 35 N / 40 94.4% N / 40 100% 10 N / 40 100% N Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(2003): Reconfiguring Italian pensions, Paper prepared for the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics, table 4 4 20 475 3.2 5 35 20 P=C T W 6 1971 1992 7 TFR(Trattamento di fine rapporto) TFR 6.91% 1.5% 75% 20 70 1 GDP 1960 5.0% 1992 14.9% 2030 25% 1 2 1 1992 GDP 2 A.Javier Hamann(Februrary,1997): The reform of the Pension System in Italy, 1997 IMF Working Paper 2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 GDP A.Javier Hamann(Februrary,1997): The reform of the Pension System in Italy, 1997 IMF Working Paper, chart 1. 2 1990 1.3 73.6 80.2 20 60 25 2040 40 3 3 2 1998 57 25.7% 65 74.6% 4 4 32 2 60 65 10.3 12.6 22.9 60 60 10.0 9.8 19.8 65 65 8.9 8.9 17.8 60 65 5.3 10.5 15.8 57 57 12.0 20.0 32.0 65 65 2.8 13.9 16.7 3 Vincenzo Galasso(2002): Is the Dini Reform Politically Sustainable? http://www.dise.unisa.it/csef/report_2002.pdf 4 Daniele Franco Nicola Sartor(September,2003):Notional Defined Contribution in Italy: Unsatisfactory Present, Uncertain Future,Paper prepared for the Conference on NDC Pensions - Stockholm 28-30 September 2003,p.11 3
60 65 8.3 10.5 18.8 65 65 6.2 6.2 12.4 A.Javier Hamann(Februrary,1997): The reform of the Pension System in Italy, 1997 IMF Working Paper, table 1 5 50 80 6 1992 1981 7 8 300 1978 1992 15 8 9 9 20 90 90 DC 90 1992 1995 1997 1992 the Amato Reform 1992 4 6 Paola Olivelli(2000): Description of the legal-institutional framework of the italian pension system,p.2, http://cerp.unito.it/banca%20dati%20cerp/previdenza_pubblica/altri%20documenti/rapporto%20per%20u E/RapportoAppendicenormativa.pdf 7 80 Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(June,2003): Reconfiguring Italian pensions. From policy stalemate tocomprehensive reforms, Paper prepared for the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics, pp.4-8 8 19 seniority pension 1956 60 35 20 15 9 Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(June,2003): Reconfiguring Italian pensions. From policy stalemate to comprehensive reforms, Paper prepared for the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics, p.9 4
Amato 421/1992 1993 9 10 1992 80 DB 1995 the Dini Reform 1992 1994 Berlusconi Dini Mastella 9 10 14 11 12 1994 12 22 Scalfaro 1995 8 335/1995 1995 1992 1997 (the Prodi Reform) 1997 Prodi 5
449/1997 1997 1995 90 1995 1997 90 1 DC 3 DC GDP C i i g GDP age a 2 3 1995 3 32.7% 32.7% 33% 32.35% 32.35% 33% 16.2% 19% 20% 16.59% 19% 20% 18.8% 20% 20% 13% 19% 20% Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(June,2003): Reconfiguring Italian pensions, Paper prepared for the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics, table 9. 6
3 1995 12 31 18 DB 1995 12 31 18 pro-rata 95 95 1996 1 1 4 57 65 57 57 2009 5 GDP 6 1.2 5 57 40 7 6 contractual pension funds PFc open pension funds PFo PFc PFc 11 TFR PFc 50% DC PFc 50% PFc 50% OECD 5% ETT COVIP Pfo 11 PFc Beniamino Lapadula(2003):The pension system in Italy, CGIL,pp.4 8. 7
Pfo PFo PFc PFc PFo PFo 1992 90 1995 1997 GDP 1 2 2 GDP % 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 1995 2005 2015 2025 2032 2037 2040 2045 97 92 Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(June,2003): Reconfiguring Italian pensions, Paper prepared for 8
the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics, graph 3 2 40 65 2000 76.9 2020 72.4 2050 63.4 12 40 65 2010 5.3 2030 10.6 2050 18.8 13 7 2001 10% 2003 GDP 3% 10 12% 30 50% 2003 GDP 0.1% 14 3 62 65 6% 57 15% 3 3 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 Tito Boeri(October 22, 2003):The Current Italian Pension Reform: Another Partial Solution?p.5 4 12 Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(June,2003): Reconfiguring Italian pensions, Paper prepared for the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics 13 Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(June,2003): Reconfiguring Italian pensions, Paper prepared for the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics 14 David Natal(2004):The Reformed Pension System, Service Public Fédéral Sécurité Social 15 A.Javier Hamann(Februrary,1997):The reform of the Pension System in Italy, 1997 IMF Working Paper,p.5 9
1 15 2036 2 1995 2030 GDP 2001 13.8% 2033 16.0% 17 3 4 5 65 6 17 Department of General Accounts (November, 2000):Medium and long -term trends of the Italian pension system 10
1 1992 1997 1994 2 50 50 3 TFR 2004 TFR 6 6 6 TFR TFR 140 2004 TFR 140 2004 6 2005 7 2005 10 6 140 2005 6 10 2006 1 1 18 4 90 18 International Benefits Information Service (IBIB), April 2005; http://www.ipe.com Europe), June 10,2005. (Investment & Pensions 11
A.Javier Hamann(Februrary,1997):The reform of the Pension System in Italy,1997 IMF Working Paper Agar Brugiavini (March,2002):The Italian Pension System: Recent Reform and Incentives to Retirement Pensions - Stockholm 28-30 September 2003. Beniamino Lapadula(2003):The pension system in Italy, CGIL Daniele Franco Nicola Sartor September,2003 :Notional Defined Contribution in Italy:Unsatisfactory Present, Uncertain Future,Paper prepared for the Conference on NDC David Natali (2004):The Reformed Pension System, Service Public Fédéral Sécurité Social Francesco Massicci( August 29th, 2001): Public pension system projection-italy s fiche International Benefits Information Service (IBIB), April 2005; http://www.ipe.com (Investment & Pensions Europe), June 10,2005. Mauro Mastrogiacomo (August 7th, 2003):The Effects of the Italian Pension Reforms on Individual Retirement Plans Maurizio Benetti( November,2002) :The Italian pension system, National Insurance Institute for Employees of the Public Administration Italy, ISSA/EUR/BUDA/02 Maurizio Ferrera and Matteo Jessoula(2003):Reconfiguring Italian pensions. From policy stalemate to comprehensive reforms,paper prepared for the 15th Annual Meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics Meeting ANIA - Metalektro pension fund Rome (November 19th, 2004): Recent developments in Italian pension system Margherita Borella and Flavia Coda Moscarola(October,2004):Redistribution in the Italian Pension System Rome ( November, 2000):Medium and long -term trends of the Italian pension system,year-2000 update of the projections based on the RGS model Paola Olivelli(2000): Description of the legal-institutional framework of the italian pension system,p.2,http://cerp.unito.it/banca%20dati%20cerp/previdenza_pubblica/altri%20docum enti/rapporto%20per%20ue/rapportoappendicenormativa.pdf. Tito Boeri (October 22nd, 2003):The Current Italian Pension Reform: Another Partial Solution? 12
NDC: The Pension Reforms Over the Last Decade in Italy Zheng Bingwen, Song Kun Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Over the last decade, a number of countries have been reexamining and innovated their pension systems. The primary reasons for doing so were that anticipated demographic trends and expenditure implications were growing worse. In this context, Italy restructured much of its social security system during the 1990s because of the worse financial inequilibrium of the previous system. The pension system in Italy is now based on a three pillars structure and is moving gradually to a new regime---- Notional Defined Contribution. This paper begins with seven features of the previous system and illustrates the reasons of these reforms. Section 2 and section 3 describe some aspects of the reform process and the features of new NDC system. The reforms were successful in postponing the retirement age and controlling the evolution of pension expenditures in the long run. To this end we summarize the drawbacks of this new regime and the lessons China can learn from the Italian pension reforms. It is believed that the future of the Italian NDC system which depends on the government s attitude and other social actors behavior is uncertain. 13