2010 2008 3 1851 2006 2010 2000 54
3 L K Y Y t =A t F L t K t 1 A 1 15~64 2005 2 2010 2025 UN 2008 1 1 1 2 60 10% 65 7% 55
2010 Y t =A t L t K α 1- t α 2 y y t =α l t + 1- α k t +a t 3 l k a 1985 2010 1 1950~2050 1 UN World Population Prospects 2008 Y/N Y t /N t =A t F L t /N t K t /L t 4 L/N K/L 1965 2010 2 3 2010~2015 56
2 3 20 70 2 2 1950~2050 UN World Population Prospects 2008 2015 2010 2 15 2010 20 90 20 90 10 57
2010 b L= ΣP i pr i i = a 5 P i i 15~64 pr i i 15~54 82.2% 58.4% 55~64 72.9% 41.3% 65 30.6% 2.0% 3 65 3 3 2008 2007 2008 ILO Labor Statistics Database 58
1976~2009 65 25 ~54 55 ~59 60 ~61 62~64 90% 80% 70% 50% 65 4 1996~2009 70~74 Richard W. Johnson and James Kaminski 2010 Older Adults Labor Force Participation since 1993 A Decade and a 1987 14.7% Half of Growth 3 2009 22.5% 4 1990 25~54 75 % 1990 5 5 1996~2009 Richard W. Johnson and James Kaminski 2010 Older Adults Labor Force Participation since 1993 A Decade and a Half of Growth 4 59
2010 UN 2007 55~64 15~54 2050 1.7%~1.8% 20 1989 2003 60
% 1989 1995 2000 2003 2007 16.4 17.6 18.3 18.5 19.1 7.9 6.7 2.8-3.1-1.2 16.2 17.9 18.5 18.6 19.3 13.0 9.2 4.7 2.8 1.1 20.9 23.2 24.7 24.7 25.4 8.8 12.9 12.0 12.8 11.5 21.5 22.2 23.3 25.5 29.5 12.7 11.0 9.2 10.3 10.2 21.6 23.3 26.9 28.4 31.1 24.5 19.4 10.4 16.8 21.0 25.2 11.5 27.6 10.0 31.7 13.6 11.9 8.3 4.0 2.4 18.4 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 UN 2007 15.5 14.6 7.0 8.5 5.5 24.6 23.9 24.3 24.4 24.1 GDP 2000 71% 6.7 10.2 5.1 4.9 5.6 2050 75% 18.6 4% 7.1 19.2 4.6 19.2 2.3 18.6 2.1 18.5 0.5 UN 2007 World Economic and Social Survey 2007 Development in an Ageing World Department of Economic and Social Affairs. p74 61
2010 20 90 20 90 James 1994 Lindh 1999 50~64 65 62
Feyrer 2007 87 1960~1990 U Werding 2008 OECD U 40~49 6 50 40~49 50 40~49 40~49 40~49 1950 2050 40~49 6 Martin Werding 2008 Aging and Productivity 2000 Growth Are There Macro- Level Cohort Effects of Human Capital?CESIFO Working Paper No.2207 Category 5 Fiscal Policy Macroeconomics and Growth. p18 63
2010 40~49 40~49 2000 40~49 40~49 7 40~49 UN World Population Prospects 2008 7 40~49 40~49 1990 1990~1995 40~49 5.37% 2000~2005 3.94% 2005 40~49 2015~2020-2.71% 2025~2030 40~49 7 2015 64
U 40~49 1. 2006 2. 2010 4 3. 2000 2 4. James A.Brander and Steve Dowrick 1994 The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross- National Data. Journal of Population Economics.7 pp.100-109. 5. James Donald Feyrer 2007 Demographics and Productivity. Review of Economics and Statistics. 89 pp.1-25. 6. Martin Werding 2008 Aging and Productivity Growth Are There Macro- Level Cohort Effects of Human Capital? CESIFO Working Paper No.2207 Category 5 Fiscal Policy. Macroeconomics and Growth. p18. 7. Richard W.Johnson and James Kaminski 2010 Older Adults Labor Force Participation since 1993 A Decade and a Half of Growth.pp3-4. 8. Thomas Lindh and Bo Malmberg 1999 Age Structure Effects and Growth in the OECD 1950-1990. Journal of Population Economics. 12 pp.431-449. 9. UN 2007 World Economic and Social Survey 2007 Development in an Ageing World Department of Economic and Social Affairs. p75. 10. UN 2008 World Population Prospects 2008.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 010 85195419 zazhi@cass.org.cn 65