510 ( ) 7 (2002) 20 90,, ( Young, 1993),,,, (2003),,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, (2001),,,,, (2004),,, ( ) (2003), ( ), (2003),,, ( 2002) (2003) (2000),,,,,,,

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1 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol17, No12 J anuary, 2008 : ,, : (1),, ; (2) ; (3),,,, (dynamic efficiency),, ( Abel, et al., 1989),,,, ( Weil, 1987), ( Tirole, 1985 ;, 2001), (2002) (2003) ,,,, (2004), (2004) (2004), 3 :, ; : ; E2mail : com,,

2 510 ( ) 7 (2002) 20 90,, ( Young, 1993),,,, (2003),,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, (2001),,,,, (2004),,, ( ) (2003), ( ), (2003),,, ( 2002) (2003) (2000),,,,,,,

3 2 : : :,?,?,, (2004), 20 80, %, 5 % ( Prescott, 1998) : 20 80?,, :,,, :,,,, 1 : f ( kgold) = n +. (1) kgold, sgold, n,, (1),, Phelp s (1966) :,, s > sgold,,, 1,, s sgold, cgold,, 1,, ( Ramsey, 1928 ; Cass, 1965 ; Koop mans, 1965) ( ),,,,, f ( k 3 ) > f ( kgold), f ( k) < 0, k 3 < kgold, 2, ,,,,2000

4 512 ( ) 7 1 2,,, (Diamond, 1965) 2,,, L t t, n, L t = (1 + n) L t - 1, t L t 1, L t - 1 = L t/ (1 + n) 2, 1, 1 ; 2,, f ( k) = k, ,,,, 1998

5 2 : : , k 3 k 3 = 1 (1 + n) (1 + g) 1 ( / (1 - ) ). (2) f ( k 3 ) = k 3-1 (1 + n) ( ). (3) f ( kgold ) = n +,,,, f ( k 3 ) f ( kgold),, f ( k 3 ) f ( kgr),,,,, ;,, ;,,,, ( ),, (, 2002), ( Ibbot son, 1987 ; Cohen et al., 1995) :?,?,, (Blanchard and Fisher, 1989 ;, 1997, ),, ( Tobin, 1965 ; Solow, 1970 ; ,,,, 2003

6 514 ( ) 7 Feldstein and Summers, 1977 ) AMSZ Abel et al. (1989),,,,,,,,,, :, ;,,,, ( ) 1. Tobin (1965) Solow (1970) Feldstein and Summers (1977),,,,,, : r K = 9Y 9 K Y = A K L. = A K - 1 L = Y K. (4) t Y t Kt t r Kt r Kt t, = t Y t. (5) K t, i Y i Ki i, i r Ki r Ki = i Y i. (6) K i,,,,,,, ( ),

7 2 : : , m ( x), m ( x),,,, Y, K L, X = [ K L ], , : Y i = m ( X i) + ui, i = 1,,27,, m ( ), ui m ( x), D m ( x) = n 6 i = 1 { y i - m ( x) - D T m ( x) ( X i - x) } 2 Kh n ( X i - x), 9m ( x) 9m ( x), 9x1 9x2 anechnikov K2 ( u) = (1 - u 2 ) +, : T, K, hn, Ep2 ^m n ( X, hn) = e T 1 ( X T x W x X x ) - 1 X T x W x Y, e1 = (1,0,,0) T, X x = ( X x,1,, X x, n) T, X x, i = (1, ( X i - x) T ) T, W x = diag{ Kh n ( X1 - x),, Kh n ( X n - x) }, Y = [ Y1,, Y n ] T., ,,,, 1952,,,, (2003),,,,, GDP 1978, 4,,, 4,, ( 2006 )

8 516 ( ) 7, ,, 1990,, 90, = , = , (5), r Kt ( 4 1 ), = 0. 3 ( 4 2 ), (, 1984 ;, 1993) ,,, 4, 1993,, 1994,, 1998,,,,,,

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10 518 ( ) ,,,, 7, 20 90,,, 2004,,, : (1), ; (2) 20 90, 2004,, ; (3), ( ) AMSZ, t, Rt V t,, ( Abel, et al.,

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12 520 ( ) 7 = - - -,,,, %,,,,,,, 8, (, 2002 ;, 2004) : = ( / ),,, (Mendoza, et al., 1977) : = ( / ),,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

13 2 : : ,,,,, :, ( ) ( ) : (1),, ; (2), ,,, 2004, ; (3), GDP,,, ; (4) 1998, 2004, 8 3, 2,,,,, ( ), 9, 2 3,

14 522 ( ) 7 8,,,,,,,,,,,,, A B C, : A :,, X 10 B :,, X C :,, X, X,, A, B, C, C,, X,,,, 9 10 X, :,,, ;, (,, ( ), )

15 2 : : ( ) 9,,, 9, A,, B C,, A C,,,,,,,, C,,,, ( ) 1.,,,,, (, 1994, p. 55),,,,,,,

16 524 ( ) 7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1978, ( ),,, 2. 10,, PPF, Y, X,, D,,,, A, A,,,, B, TE ( Technical Efficiency), A TE = OA/ OB. 10

17 2 : : , B, A E (Allocative Efficiency) A E = OB/ OC., A, EE ( Economic Efficiency) EE = TE A E = ( OA/ OB) ( OB/ OC) = OA/ OC.,,, A D,,,,, PPF,,,,,,,, 1993,,, A 3.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Rybczynski, 1955),,,,,, 11 P Y / P X P Y / PX,,,, PPF,, C, F,,

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20 528 ( ) 7 13,,,,, (CCER, 2007),,, % %, 3. 7 % %, 6. 8 % %, (Bai, et al., 2006),,,,,,, ,, 13,,,,, ;,,,, 20 90, (,2005 )

21 2 : : ,,, : (1),,,,,, (2),,,, ;, GDP,, (3) : ; ; ;, [ 1 ] Abel A., G. Mankiw, L. Summers, and R. Zeckhauser, Assessing Dynamic Efficiency : Theory and Evidence, Review of Economic S tudies, 1989, 56 (1), [ 2 ],, :,2000 [ 3 ] Bai, C., C. Hsieh, and Y, Qian, The Return of Capital in China, NBER, Working Papers, No , [ 4 ] Blanchard, O., and S. Fischer, L ecture on M acroeconomics. Cambridge MA : MIT Press, [ 5 ],, :,1998 [ 6 ] Cass, D., Optimum Growt h in an Aggregation Model of Capital Accumulation, Review of Eco2 nomic S tudies, 1965, 32 (3), [ 7 ] CCER, ( ), ( ), , [ 8 ] Cohen, D., K. Hasset, and J. Kennedy, Are U. S. Invest ment and Capital Stocks at Optimal Levels? FEDS Working Paper, No. 9532, Board of Governors of t he Federal Reserve System, [ 9 ], :, 2000 [ 10 ],, :,2003

22 530 ( ) 7 [ 11 ] Diamond, P., National Debt in a Neoclassical Growt h Model, A merican Economic Review, 1965, 55 (5), [ 12 ],,,2004 5, [ 13 ],, ( ), , [ 14 ] Feldstein, M., and L. Summers, Is t he Rate of Profit Falling? B rooking Papers in Economic A ctivit y, 1977, 1, [ 15 ],,,2004 1, [ 16 ], : ,,2004 3, [ 17 ] Ibbot son, R., Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation, Market Result s for , in 1987 Yearbook. Chicago : R. G. Ibbot son Associates, Inc., [ 18 ],, ( ), , [ 19 ] Koopmans, T., On t he Concept of Optimal Economic Growt h, in The Economic A p proach to Development Planning. Amsterdam : North Holland, [ 20 ],,,2003 2, [ 21 ],,,2003 4, [ 22 ],, ( ), , [ 23 ], : :,1994 [ 24 ],,,2004 7, 9 17 [ 25 ],,,2002 1, [ 26 ],?, , [ 27 ], : :,2007 [ 28 ] Mendoza, et al., Effective Tax Rate in Macroeconomics : Cross2county Estimates of Tax Rates on Income and Consumption, NBER Working Papers, No , [ 29 ] Prescott, E., Needed : A Theory of Total Factor Productivity, International Economic Review, 1998, 39 (3), [ 30 ],, ( ) , [ 31 ] Ramsey F. P., A Mat hematical Theory of Saving, Economic J ournal, 1928, 38, [ 32 ] Rybczynski, T. M., Factor Endowment s and Relative Commodity Prices, Economica, Novem2 ber [ 33 ],,, , [ 34 ],,,2002 8, [ 35 ] Solow, M., Growt h T heory : A n Ex position. Oxford : Oxford University Press, [ 36 ] Tirole, J., Asset Bubble and Overlapping Generations, Economet rica, 1985, 53 ( 6 ),

23 2 : : [ 37 ] Tobin, J., Economic Growt h as an Objective of Government Policy, in Essays in Economics, Volume 1, M acroeconomics. Amsterdam : Nort h2holland Publishing Company, 1965, [ 38 ],,,2003 2, [ 39 ], 20 90,,2003 7, [ 40 ], :,,2002 6, 3 13 [ 41 ], : ,,2001 3, [ 42 ],,,2005 6, [ 43 ] Weil, P., Confidence and t he Real Value of Money in Overlapping Generation Models, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 1987, 102 (1), [ 44 ] Young, A., Lessons from t he East Asian NICS : a Contrarian View, Paper Presented at the Eight Annual Conference of the European Economic Association. Helsinki, :

24 532 ( ) 7 The Dynamic Eff iciency of China s Capital Accumulation : B IN GYAN G L V ( Tsi ng hua Uni versit y) Abstract This article studies the dynamic efficiency of China s capital accumulation on the basis of theoretical analysis. The following major conclusions are obtained. First, China s capital accumulation has shown dynamic efficiency. Second, the dynamic efficiency is correla2 ted with economic fluctuations and regional economic development levels. Third, the source of dynamic efficiency is technological progress, improvement s in technical efficiency, and im2 provement s in static and dynamic allocative efficiency. The space for improvement s in the dy2 namic efficiency is still very large when we take into account China s market2oriented reforms, late2comer advantages, and room for structural upgrading and transition in it s industries. JEL Classif ication E22, O11, P21

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