Tootell Gamber & Hung % OECD Hooper et al Ball 2006 Borio & Filardo 2007 OECD 17 OECD Borio & Filardo

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1 CPI 90 CPI 20% % * zhangcs@ ruc. edu. cn

2 Tootell Gamber & Hung % OECD Hooper et al Ball 2006 Borio & Filardo 2007 OECD 17 OECD Borio & Filardo 2007 Ihrig et al OECD 2010 Roberts 1995 Gali & Gertler

3 NKPC 1 Taylor 1980 Rotemberg 1982 Calvo 1983 forward-looking Gali & Gertler 1999 backward-looking 1 θ 0 < θ < 1 t t p * t p t 1 Calvo 1983 Obstfeld & Rogoff 1995 Gali & Monacelli 2005 DSGE DSGE DSGE 35

4 p t = θp t θ p * t 1 Calvo 1983 ω p B t 1 - ω p F t t p * t = 1 - ω p F t + ωp B t 2 p F t GDP GDP Gali & Gertler 1999 p F t = θβσ s = 0 θβ s E t π t + s θβ Σ s = 0 θβ s E t ζ k d y y d t + s + k f y y f t + s 3 π t E t π t + 1 t t + 1 β ζ ζ Woodford 2003 y d t y f t k d y k f y p F t = θβe t π t θβ ζ k d y y d t + k f y y f t + θβe t p F t +1 4 p B t = p * t -1 + π t -1 + ρ * L Δπ t -1 5 ρ * L = ρ * 1 + ρ * 2 L + ρ * 3 L ρ * q L q - 1 q q AIC 1 5 π t = c + γ e E t π t +1 + γ b π t -1 + Σ q -1 α i Δπ t - i + δ d y d t + δ f y f t + η t 6 i = 1 c η t γ e = θβψ -1 γ b = 1 - ω - θβ 1 - ω 1 - θ ρ * 1 ψ -1 α i = 1 - ω 1 - θ ρ * L + θβρ' L ψ -1 δ d = k d y ω 1 - θβ 1 - θ ζψ -1 δ f = k f y ω 1 - θβ 1 - θ ζψ -1 ψ = θ ω 1 - θ + θβ 1 - ω + θβ 1 - ω 1 - θ ρ * 1 ρ * L = ρ * 1 + ρ * 2 L + + ρ * q L q - 1 7

5 γ e γ b γ b 0 γ e γ b Gali & Gertler 1999 γ e γ b δ d δ f δ f CPI GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP HP GDP CEIC 17 GDP HP GDP CEIC GDP GDP CPI %

6 1 17 % / 17 CEIC CPI CEIC 2 CPI M2 M2 M2 ADF PP 5% 38

7 t Stock & Watson Durbin-Wu-Hausman 6 Durbin-Wu-Hausman 2SLS Frisch-Waugh-Lovell Durbin 1954 Wu 1973 Hausman 1978 M2 1-2 AIC 5 Hansen 1982 J 2. t + 1 E t π t +1 = π t +1 - e t +1 8 e t + 1 McCallum 1976 Cumby et al Hayashi & Sims 1983 Roberts 1995 Gali & Gertler e t η t u t = η t - γ e e t + 1 σ 2 + η σ2 e - 2σ η e σ 2 σ ηe 槡 39

8 η t 6 η t 6 η t η t 6 Pagan 1984 π t + 1 π t + 1 Z E t π t +1 = P Z π t +1 9 P z P Z = Z Z'Z - 1Z' 2SLS Breusch-Godfrey 80 Godfrey et al Davidson & MacKinnon 1993 Cumby & Huizinga 1992 Godfrey 1994 Godfrey η珘 t = Xb + ρ L η珘 t -1 + ε t 10 ρ L η珘 2SLS X 6 ε 10 η 珘 = X 1 b + X 2 ρ + ε 11 X 1 X 2 10 η珘 Z Z η珘 W P W = W W'W - 1 W' 珘 ε r ρ = 0 11 X珘 i = P W X i i = 1 2 M 1 = I - P X珘 1 I S 2 r = 珘 ε' r 珘 ε r / T - r T r X 2 LM η珘 ρ = 0 40 LM = η'p 珘 M1 珘 X珘 2 η / rs 2 r 12

9 r F r T - r p Kiviet 1986 η珘 SLS p 6 7 Godfrey 1994 p Hansen 1982 J p R 2 6 γ e + γ f = δ f 5% δ d 15 CPI NKPC 2SLS γ e γ b δ d δ f p α i p-auto p-j R *** *** ** γ e + γ f = *** *** ** AIC M2 1 2 p α i 2 5 p p-auto Godfrey 1994 p p-j Hansen 1982 J p Newey-West HAC *** ** 1% 5% Gali & Gertler Newey-West 4 41

10 50% p p 0 1 Godfrey 1994 p 10% p 5% 2 Hansen 1982 J p R 2 Gali & Gertler NKPC 2SLS γ e + γ f = 1 γ e γ b δ d p α i p-auto p-over R *** *** *** ***

11 GDP

12 Borio Claudio and Andrew Filardo 2007 Globalization and Inflation New Cross-country Evidence on the Global Determinants of Domestic Inflation BIS Working Papers No 227. Calvo Guillermo A Staggered Prices in a Utility-maximizing Framework Journal of Monetary Economics Cumby Robert E. John Huizinga and Maurice Obstfeld 1983 Two-step Two-stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations Journal of Econometrics Cumby Robert E. and John Huizinga 1992 Testing the Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions Econometricam Davidson Russell and James Mackinnon 1993 Estimation and Inference in Econometrics Oxford Oxford University Press. Durbin James 1954 Errors in Variables Review of the International Statistical Institute Gali Jordi and Mark Gertler 1999 Inflation Dynamics A Structural Econometric Analysis Journal of Monetary Economics Gali Jordi and Tommaso Monacelli 2005 Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy Review of Economic Studies Gamber Edward N. and Hung Juann H Has the Rise in Globalization Reduced U. S. Inflation in the 1990s Economic Inquiry Godfrey Leslie Michael McAleer and Colin McKenzie 1988 Variable Addition and Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Linear and Logarithmic Regression Models Review of Economics and Statistics Godfrey Leslie 1994 Testing for Serial Correlation by Variable Addition in Dynamic Models Estimated by Instrumental Variables Review of Economics and Statistics Hansen Lars 1982 Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators Econometrica Hausman Jerry 1978 Specification Tests in Econometrics Econometrica Hayashi Fumio and Christopher A. Sims 1983 Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined but not Exogenous Instruments Econometrica Hooper Peter Torsten Slok and Christine Dobridge 2006 Understanding U. S. Inflation Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank July. Ihrig Jane Steven Kamin Deborah Lindner and Jaime Marquez 2010 Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis International Finance Kiviet Jan 1986 On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relations Review of Economic Studies McCallum Bennett 1976 Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Some Consistent Estimates Econometrica Obstfeld Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff 1995 Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux Journal of Political Economy Pagan Adrian 1984 Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors International Economic Review Roberts John 1995 New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve Journal of Money Credit and Banking Rotemberg Julio 1982 Sticky Prices in the United States Journal of Political Economy Stock Jams and Mark Watson 2002 Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why in M. Gertler and K. Rogoff eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002 Cambridge MA MIT Press Stock James and Mark Watson 2007 Why Has U. S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast Journal of Money Credit and Banking Taylor John 1980 Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts Journal of Political Economy Tootell Geoffrey M. B Globalization and U. S. inflation New England Economic Review Woodford Michael 2003 Interest and Prices Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy Princeton Princeton University Press. 44

13 Wu De-Min 1973 Alternative Tests of Independence between Stochastic Regressions and Disturbances Econometrica Globalization and Inflation Dynamics in China Zhang Chengsi School of Finance Renmin University of China Abstract This paper introduces globalization into firms pricing mechanism and develops a new inflation dynamics model for China based on micro foundation. In empirical analysis we take into account endogeneity and serial correlation in the model and use instrumental variables projection method to address the inaccuracy problem induced by an extra stochastic noise. The results show that both inflation expectations and inflation inertia drive inflation with similar magnitude. The results also find that foreign output gap outweighs domestic output gap in driving China s inflation over the past decade. The article provides new evidence and implications for macro economic policies and also offers a possible explanation for the high economic growth with low inflation puzzle experienced in China. Key Words Globalization Inflation New Keynesian Phillips Curve Monetary Policy Endogeneity JEL Classification E58 E31 C22 檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵 32 public services but equalizing transfer formulated by a built-in standardization system ensures that each province would have the fiscal capacity to provide services at the same standard. Firstly two sets of expense and revenue standardization systems are established on basis of the state average standards developed where the public services are divided into 9 categories and 24 components. According to policy neutrality principle the effects of 17 material factors concerning with the magnitude and unit costs in providing services are analyzed such as population composition population density minority urbanization labor force price administration scale air temperature and heating altitude exchange cost on the disparities in raising revenue capacity and delivering expenditure cost in all provinces. Then the standard expenses and standard revenues are calculated and assessed with factor analysis method combining with the average standard systems. Finally by carrying out the full equalization principles and defining the revenue sharing relativities the fiscal equalizing transfers of 2008 from the central government are distributed among 31 provinces in accordance with their annual per capita relativities formulated. It is found that there is almost no disparity in providing services capacity in accordance with the equalization transfer calculated by the method developed here among all provinces. Comparing with the practical transfers it is showed that the equalizing outcome can be improved 9% 15% by evaluating the impact on the eastern middle west and northeastern regions of China. Key Words Equalization of Basic Public Services Standardization System Fiscal Transfer Payment Per Capita Standard Revenue JEL Classification C38 H41 H50 H77 45

% 5 CPI CPI PPI Benjamin et al Taylor 1993 Cukierman and Gerlach 2003 Ikeda 2013 Jonas and Mishkin

% 5 CPI CPI PPI Benjamin et al Taylor 1993 Cukierman and Gerlach 2003 Ikeda 2013 Jonas and Mishkin 2016 9 435 No. 9 2016 General No. 435 130012 1996 1-2016 6 LT - TVP - VAR LT - TVP - VAR JEL E0 F40 A 1002-7246201609 - 0001-17 2016-03 - 20 Emailjinquan. edu. cn. Email1737918817@ qq. com. * 15ZDC008