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1 * *? DOI: /j.cnki.iae * 14ZDAZ0241 ASTIP - IAED02 30

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3 % % / % % % y t d d ARMA p q FAO Δ d y t = θ 0 + p φ i Δ d y t -1 + ε t + q θ j ε t -j 1. t 0 σ 2 Φ i i = 1 2 p θ j j = 1 2 q p q p d q MAPE 3. y = G 1 + k η 1 η 2 η n y G k η 1 η 2 η n n 32 i = 1 Δ d y t y t d ε t j = 1

4 g = D a /D b = f C a /f C b C a a C b b D a a D b b n f g n x 1 x 2 x n X X X 4. X = x k +1 n = 2k + 1 { x k + x k +1 /2 n = 2 x 3k +3 /2 n = 2k + 1 k x X = 1 +3k /2 + x 2 +3k /2 /2 n = 2k + 1 k 3k +1 /2 x n = 2k k x 3k /2 + x 1 +3k /2 /2 n = 2k k X = x k +1 /2 n = 2k + 1 n = 2k k { x k /2 + x 1 +k /2 /2 n = 2k + 1 n = 2k k = x max - x min x max x min x max x min % % % 1. 82% 1% ~ 2%

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6 2 P Δy t = ε t ε t ε t - 2 Δ 2 y t = Δ 2 y t Δ 2 y t ε t Δy t = Δy t ε t ε t - 1 Δy t = ε t ε t - 2 Δy t = Δy t Δy t ε t ε t ε t - 2 Δy t = ε t ε t - 1 Δy t = Δy t Δy t ε t ε t ε t - 2 Δ 2 y t = Δ 2 y t Δ 2 y t ε t ε t ε t - 2 Δy t = Δy t y t ε t ε t ε t y t % % % % % % % % % % ~ 35% % 15% ~ % ~ 58% ~ ~ ~ % ~ % % ~ 30% 1. 50% % % 80% % 16% 85% 23% 14% 15%

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10 DOI: /j.cnki.iae * *? 686 Binary Logistic Binary Logistic 2011 Crutzen 檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯檯 ~ ~ * " ' ' " 15JZD PY

11 Issues in Agricultural Economy Monthly No. 4 /2017 MAIN CONTENTS The Essential Stipulation of the Cooperatives QIN Yu and MIAO Tongtong 4 The essential stipulation of the cooperatives is based on how to distribution surplus. The distribution of cooperatives surplus is accordance with quantity of one kind of product factor. The conclusion is tested by practice of international agricultural cooperative. The essential stipulation of the cooperatives cannot drift. It determines the efficiency of the economic organization. The essential stipulation of the cooperatives is used to discuss some issues. These issues include the ICA statement on the co-operative i- dentity different kinds of views on the essential stipulation the pragmatic cooperative theory different kinds of economic organization named cooperative Farmer Specialized Cooperative Law the road of Chinese agricultural cooperative. This article draws a conclusion that the theory and practice of Chinese agricultural cooperative should be reoriented. The Phenomenon and Explanation of Behavioral Distortion in Specialized Farmers Cooperatives LI Yunxin and WANG Xiaoxuan 14 It is a common practice for specialized farmers cooperatives to deviate from their normal behavior mode which has become a barrier for the process of agricultural modernization. This paper analyses this phenomenon by using organizational theory and institutional analysis framework and tries to explain the distorted process the happening locking and strengthening mechanism of the specialized farmers cooperatives. The study found that the behavior of specialized farmers cooperative has multiple twisted logics. Root of distorted cooperative behavior occurred and persisted is that the existing institutional environment and organizational arrangements provide poor incentives for the parties to co-participants. Cooperative behavior is distorted in a number of aspects which include the process of establishment operation and benefits distribution and the distorted phenomenon gradually spread. Government interventions have completely distorted the starting point for cooperative behavior reducing the operating effects of farmers cooperatives. Specialized farmers cooperatives have special organizational structure and arrangement which provide soil for the distorted behavior meanwhile the deviation of practice and institutional text the deconstruction and restructure of formal organization finally leads informal structures becoming the dominant force. Continuous interaction of participants strengthens the distorted behavior. Loose supervision under the institutionalized organization organizational imitation and the path dependence normalize the distortion behavior of specialized farmers cooperatives. Analysis on Gradualness Reform Path on Rural Shareholding Cooperative System WANG Jing 23 It has exposed some problems for traditional collective property right reform system included in emptiness disability lack right subject and not right subject overstepping of property right. These problems further stand out in some developedrural area in rapidly growing collective assets. Therefore some regions carry through rural shareholding cooperative system reform. Based on analysis on liquidation and estimate property shares setting shares management revenue distribution and organization reconstruction the thesis deeply studies on existing problem. At last the paper brings out the incremental right system reform pathsetting up revenue distribution system of distinct property new-type village governance mechanism perfecting equity and collective economic organization demutualization. Research on Development Goals of Agricultural Modernization in 13th Five-year JIANG Heping CUI Kai and ZHANG Chenglong 30 By constructing agricultural modernization Index system of 13th Five Year this studyconcentrates on five aspects of total aims Agricultural supply Farmer income Ecological safety Quality safety domestic and international strategy layout. Combined with multiple index evaluation and quantitative analytical method the definite objective number of 13th Five Year is determined then research conclusions and revelation is given. Study on Farmers Decision Behavior of Crop Straw Recycling of Returning to Field Based on Farmers Survey of Seven Provinces YAN Tingwu ZHANG Tongchao HE Ke and ZHANG Junbiao 39 Based on the survey data of 686 sample farmers in seven provinces this paper analyzed farmers 110

MACRO ECONOMY AND MICRO OPERATION 2016 ( 30%~50% ; 1 ) ; : ? 80 : 1993 ; ; ( ) ; 1. ;2014 ( 1 ) ( ) 105

MACRO ECONOMY AND MICRO OPERATION * The Basic Connotation and Policy Suggestions on the Structural Reform of Agricultural Supply Side : ; 100872 Kong Xiangzhi Abstract: The field of agriculture of supply