分众传媒 : 财务数据概要 损益表 (Rmb mn) 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 资产负债表 (Rmb mn) 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 主营业务收入 10, , , ,326.0 现金及等价物 4,44

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1 2017 年 5 月 31 日 投资决策买入分众传媒 ( SZ) 潜在回报 : 29% 证券研究报告 被低估的户外广告领跑者 ; 上调评级至买入 ( 摘要 ) 建议理由分众传媒是中国最大的户外广告运营商, 市场份额占据主导地位 得益于其出众的媒体形式 强劲的议价能力以及经营杠杆, 我们认为未来三年公司能够较好地实现十位数高端的收入增长并扩大利润率 我们调整了该股每股盈利预测及退出市盈率, 令其估值与全球同业更加一致, 我们将 12 个月目标价格上调至人民币 元 ( 原为 元 ) 虽然股票抛售等短期风险可能不会消退, 但考虑到 20 倍的 2017 年预期市盈率 ( 低于全球同业的 23 倍 ) 以及较高的利润率 / 回报率, 该股估值具吸引力 根据 29% 的上行空间, 将评级由中性上调至买入 投资摘要 低 高 增长回报 * 估值倍数波动性百分位 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th 分众传媒 ( SZ) A 股传媒行业平均水平 * 回报 资本回报率投资摘要指标的全面描述请参见本报告的信息披露部分 推动因素 (1) 稳健的增长 : 由于广告收入增长稳定, 我们认为分众传媒目前的广告形式比市场所认为的更稳健, 并且应能保持快速的收入增长 我们预计 年收入 /EBIT 将分别年均复合增长 17%/22% (2) 在相关业务领域的潜在收购并购机会 : 分众传媒一直在积极探索体育 娱乐及金融科技领域的收购和投资目标 考虑到公司现金充裕, 我们认为其将继续投资相关业务领域, 从而推动盈利增长 估值我们将 年预期净利润调整了 69%, 以体现受众增加推动收入 / 利润率提高的因素 加之我们将 2021 年预期退出市盈率从原先的 18 倍 ( 参照我们的中国传媒板块研究范围 ) 提高到 20 倍 ( 参考全球同业估值倍数 ), 仍使用 8% 的行业股权成本贴现回 2017 年, 我们将 12 个月目标价格上调至人民币 元 主要风险潜在的解禁股票抛售, 中国广告增长放缓, 在影院广告方面的议价能力走弱 主要数据 当前 股价 (Rmb) 个月目标价格 (Rmb) 市值 (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 109,822.0 / 16,006.7 外资持股比例 (%) 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 每股盈利 (Rmb) 新 每股盈利调整幅度 (%) 每股盈利增长 (%) (38.1) 每股摊薄盈利 (Rmb) 新 市盈率 (X) 市净率 (X) EV/EBITDA(X) 股息收益率 (%) 净资产回报率 (%) CROCI(%) 股价走势图 May16 Aug16 Dec16 Mar17 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 * 全文翻译将随后提供 分众传媒 ( 左轴 ) 沪深 300 指数 ( 右轴 ) 所属投资名单亚太买入名单 股价表现 (%) 3 个月 6 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.2 (28.3) (11.2) 相对于沪深 300 指数 6.3 (27.1) (21.8) 资料来源 : 公司数据 高盛研究预测 FactSet( 股价为 5/26/2017 收盘价 ) 行业评级 : 中性 廖绪发, CFA ( 分析师 ) 执业证书编号 : S (21) xufa.liao@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 戴晔 ( 研究助理 ) +86(21) brian.dai@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系, 并且继续寻求发展这些关系 因此, 投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突, 不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息, 见信息披露附录, 或请与您的投资代表联系 北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究

2 分众传媒 : 财务数据概要 损益表 (Rmb mn) 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 资产负债表 (Rmb mn) 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 主营业务收入 10, , , ,326.0 现金及等价物 4, , , ,588.5 主营业务成本 (3,019.1) (3,442.0) (3,951.0) (4,510.9) 应收账款 2, , , ,472.9 销售 一般及管理费用 (2,705.3) (3,048.4) (3,477.4) (3,950.8) 存货 研发费用 (67.5) (73.6) (79.0) (83.3) 其它流动资产 2, , , ,832.5 其它营业收入 /( 支出 ) (260.9) (274.0) (287.7) (302.1) 流动资产 9, , , ,893.9 EBITDA 4, , , ,596.1 固定资产净额 折旧和摊销 (130.4) (111.6) (111.5) (117.2) 无形资产净额 EBIT 4, , , ,478.8 长期投资 1, , , ,796.2 利息收入 其它长期资产 财务费用 (6.9) (19.6) (19.6) (19.6) 资产合计 12, , , ,856.2 联营公司 其它 1, , , ,167.7 应付账款 2, , , ,325.6 税前利润 5, , , ,937.9 短期贷款 所得税 (868.4) (1,116.6) (1,292.7) (1,519.4) 其它流动负债 , , ,842.3 少数股东损益 流动负债 3, , , ,819.9 长期贷款 优先股股息前净利润 4, , , ,422.4 其它长期负债 优先股息 长期负债 非经常性项目前净利润 4, , , ,422.4 负债合计 3, , , ,890.9 税后非经常性损益 净利润 4, , , ,422.4 优先股 普通股权益 7, , , ,813.7 每股基本盈利 ( 非经常性项目前 )(Rmb) 少数股东权益 每股基本盈利 ( 非经常性项目后 )(Rmb) 每股摊薄盈利 ( 非经常性项目后 )(Rmb) 负债及股东权益合计 12, , , ,856.2 每股股息 (Rmb) 股息支付率 (%) 每股净资产 (Rmb) 自由现金流收益率 (%) 增长率和利润率 (%) 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 比率 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 主营业务收入增长率 CROCI(%) EBITDA 增长率 净资产回报率 (%) EBIT 增长率 总资产回报率 (%) 净利润增长率 平均运用资本回报率 (%) 每股盈利增长 (38.1) 存货周转天数 NM NM NM NM 毛利率 应收账款周转天数 EBITDA 利润率 应付账款周转天数 EBIT 利润率 净负债 / 股东权益 (%) (46.5) (53.8) (59.6) (66.3) EBIT 利息保障倍数 (X) NM NM NM NM 现金流量表 (Rmb mn) 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 估值 12/16 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 优先股股息前净利润 4, , , ,422.4 折旧及摊销 基本市盈率 (X) 少数股东权益 (3.4) (3.5) (3.7) (3.9) 市净率 (X) 运营资本增减 (137.7) (71.3) (74.1) EV/EBITDA(X) 其它 (70.1) (70.1) (70.2) 企业价值 / 总投资现金 (X) 经营活动产生的现金流 4, , , ,391.5 股息收益率 (%) 资本开支 (95.0) (112.1) (131.1) (151.8) 收购 (9.5) 剥离 其它 (2,914.7) (500.0) (500.0) (500.0) 投资活动产生的现金流 (3,019.1) (612.1) (631.1) (651.8) 支付股息的现金 ( 普通股和优先股 ) (1,097.1) (3,564.6) (4,368.7) (5,057.3) 借款增减 普通股发行 ( 回购 ) 4, 其它 (4,930.2) 筹资活动产生的现金流 (512.6) (3,564.6) (4,368.7) (5,057.3) 总现金流 1, , , ,682.4 注 : 最后一个实际年度数据可能包括已公布和预测数据 资料来源 : 公司数据 高盛研究预测 对此报告有贡献的人员 廖绪发, CFA xufa.liao@ghsl.cn 戴晔 brian.dai@ghsl.cn 全球投资研究 2

3 Table of contents PM Summary: Undervalued outofhome leader 4 Attractive vs. global peers, given stronger fundamentals 5 Innerbuilding advertising: Highvalue life circle media 8 Cinema preshow ads: A fast growing advertising media 11 Diversified revenue sources and strong bargaining power 14 Earnings estimates 16 Key risks 19 Disclosure Appendix 20 Prices in this report are as of May 26, 2017 unless indicated otherwise. Exhibit 1: Snapshot of Focus Media s business segments Focus Media Inner building Media Cinema Media LCD Screens Poster Frames Instore media Premovie ad slots Mainly in office buildings Mainly in residential buildings In stores & supermarkets Source: Company data 全球投资研究 3

4 PM Summary: Undervalued outofhome leader Focus Media is the market share leader in innerbuilding and cinema preshow advertising, with strong bargaining power over downstream players, which supports levered earnings growth. Our outlook for a growing audience for this advertising driven by more office buildings/residential properties in cities and increased movie attendance make us incrementally more positive on the company and lead us to raise our EPS estimates by up to 9% to reflect higher revenue and margins. We also increase our terminal year P/E to 20X from 18X, now referencing international peers historical average (previously, we referenced our China media coverage). We believe the market is bearish about the overhang of selling pressure due to unlocking from restrictions, and consider the stock undervalued trading at a 20X 2017 P/E, lower than international peers at 23X, given its higher growth, higher margin and stronger cash flow profile. We upgrade Focus Media to Buy from Neutral with a 12month target price of Rmb16.26 implying 29% upside, among the highest in our China media coverage. Innerbuilding advertising: Highvalue life circle media Focus Media s revenue from LCD media and poster frame media has seen stable growth (+13% in ), broadly in line with overall advertising spending growth in China, and we also expect a 13% CAGR in E (still in line with industry growth), driven by more office buildings and residential properties in cities. We think the reason for the stable growth is due to: (1) Exposure to a captive audience: Focus Media s ad resources are usually installed in elevators, which are small enclosed spaces, and are more likely to attract people s attention; (2) A growing audience: Supply of office building and residential building in large cities will not decelerate; (3) Most of Focus Media s audience are high income middle class with high purchasing power; (4) We believe Focus Media offers effective/economically viable ways to drive a brand s penetration in a short period of time. Cinema preshow ads: A fast growing advertising media Cinema preshow advertising is the fastest growing segment of Focus Media. The industry grew 33%/4/45% in vs. an overall ad spending CAGR in China of +18% over the same period, driven by rising movie viewership (35%/52%/9% yoy in ). The future driver of the industry lies in stable growth in viewership (11% CAGR through 2020E), and higher advertising coverage (4 of screens in China have advertising coverage in 2016 vs. our expectation of 65% in 2021E). Focus Media has a 63% share of the cinema preshow ad market as of 2016, ahead of the other two large players Wanda Media and Jingmao. Though competition is still intense, we think Focus Media s market share will increase slightly because of its position as an independent agency able to sign up cinemas from various cinema investment companies. Diversified revenue sources and strong bargaining power In the last few years, the revenue contribution from internet industry clients has increased from 16% in 2014 to 26% in 2016, thanks to the growth of the internet industry. While the internet will continue to be an important contributor, we think Focus Media s revenue sources are diversified into multiple industries and the company is thus relatively immune from industry specific risk. We think the ultimate driver is growth of the advertising industry and economy. In the past four years, Focus Media s share of China s advertising industry has been stable at about 2%. We think inner building ads and cinema ads remain two valuable advertising media and Focus Media will continue to grow in step with the industry. Focus Media has 9/7/63% market shares in inner building LCDs / poster frames / cinema preshow advertising as of 2016, while its downstream is very fragmented. As a result, Focus Media s bargaining power is strong, which leads to low cost inflation. 全球投资研究 4

5 Attractive vs. global peers, given stronger fundamentals We raise E EPS by 69% to reflect higher revenue and higher margins driven by a growing audience. We also adjust our 2021E exit P/E multiple to 20X from 18X, referencing historicalaverage international peer valuations, and discount back to 2017E using 8% sector COE (still in line with our China media coverage). Compared with international peers, Focus Media has higher growth, higher margins and stronger cash flow, and having increased the dividend payout ratio from 32% in 2015 to 8 in 2016, its 2017E dividend yield comes to c. 4%, in line with the average of international peers. Accordingly, we now believe the stock merits valuation in line with their average multiple in the long term. With our estimate changes and multiple adjustment, we raise our 12month target price to Rmb16.26, from Rmb We consider the stock undervalued trading at a 20X 2017E P/E, compared with its 2year historical average of 29X (26X excluding the period from November 2015 to January 2016 when the media sector as a whole rallied), and the average for international peers of 23X. Exhibit 2: Current year P/E of international peers Current year P/E Exhibit 3: Average P/E of international peers is 20x Current year P/E JCDecaux Outfront Lamar APN Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May Average = 20x Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 4: Focus Media has higher revenue growth than international peers Revenue growth comparison Exhibit 5: and higher operating CF / revenue ratio Comparison of operating CF / revenue Revenue growth Operating CF/revenue Focus Media JCDecaux Lamar Outfront Focus Media JCDecaux Lamar Outfront % % 5% E E, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 全球投资研究 5

6 Exhibit 6: Focus Media has higher a net margin Net margin comparison Exhibit 7: while its dividend payout ratio is lower Comparison of dividend payout ratio 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% Net margin FY16 Focus Media JCDecaux Lamar Outfront Dividend payout ratio FY16 Focus Media JCDecaux Lamar Outfront Source: Company data Source: Company data Exhibit 8: P/E multiple is below historical average P/E NTM Avg= Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Source: Wind Exhibit 9: Comps table for Focus Media s international peers Name Mkt cap PE EPS ROE Dividend yield (US$ mn) E 2018E CAGR E 2018E E 2018E Focus Media 16, % 71% 64% 65% 2.6% % JCDecaux 7, % 5% 5% 5% 1.7% % Lamar 6, % 29% 29% 31% 4.8% 4.8% 5.3% Outfront Media 3, % 7% 1 11% 6.1% 6.4% 7. APN Outdoor Group % 2 21% 19% Average % 26% 26% 4% 4% 5% Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 全球投资研究 6

7 Exhibit 10: China media coverage comp sheet Ticker Company Rating Ccy Price 12m TP Potential Target PE Current P/E(X) EV/EBITDA EPS ROE CROCI EPS CAGR 26May2017 +/ 2017E E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E 2017E 2017E 1618E SZ Focus Media Buy Rmb % 26X 25X 20X 17X 31X 20X 16X % 17% 19% SS China South Buy Rmb % 20X 17X 16X 14X 11X 9X 7X % 2 11% SZ Huace Buy Rmb % 31X 40X 28X 22X 50X 25X 20X % 35% SZ Wanda Film Buy Rmb % 40X 48X 36X 28X 36X 18X 14X % 17% 32% SZ Alpha Neutral Rmb % 41X 39X 30X 22X 81X 27X 20X % 1 32% SZ BlueFocus Neutral Rmb % 26X 24X 20X 16X 35X 19X 15X % 8% 21% SS Oriental Pearl Neutral Rmb % 22X 19X 18X 16X 19X 13X 11X % 14% SZ Enlight Neutral Rmb % 28X 32X 24X 19X 60X 29X 23X % 8% 29% SZ Huayi Neutral Rmb % 29X 27X 25X 20X 84X 23X 19X % 7% 16% 1970.HK IMAX China Neutral HK$ % 30X 42X 30X 24X 31X 18X 14X % 24% 33% SS Phoenix Sell Rmb X 20X 19X 18X 21X 15X 14X % 11% 8% SS Gehua Sell Rmb X 28X 24X 21X 14X 11X 9X % 9% 17% Avg. 27X 30X 24X 20X 39X 19X 17% 13% 22% Median 27X 28X 24X 20X 33X 18X 12% 11% 2 Source: FactSet, Gao Hua Securities Research Cross check with DDM valuation Focus Media raised its dividend payout ratio to 8 in 2016 and we believe the payout ratio is likely to be maintained given its large cash balance. We thus cross check our valuation methodology by deriving theoretical value based on 10year dividend discount model (DDM), assuming the same sector COE of 8% that we use for our target price, and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to reflect long term GDP growth. We find that DDM yields a similar pershare value (Rmb 16.59) to our current target price (Exhibit 11). Exhibit 11: Dividend discount model yields similar pershare value as our target price Dividend discount model for Focus Media Dividend discount model 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Dividend (Rmb) yoy 16% 18% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% Terminal growth rate 2.5% COE 8. Terminal value Total dividend value (Rmb) Present value of dividends (Rmb) Source: Gao Hua Securities Research Sensitivity analysis Terminal growth rate COE % % % % % 全球投资研究 7

8 Innerbuilding advertising: Highvalue life circle media After a decade of rollout, Focus Media today operates an LCD advertising network in more than 90 cities with 225,000 screens, and a poster frame network in more than 40 cities with 1,158,000 installed units. Given that the ASP of innerbuilding media in Tier 1 cities and Tier 3 cities can differ by 48X (Tier 1 and 2 cities have taller office buildings and more higherincome earners), and over 5/4 of inner building media revenues are from Tier 1/2 cities, we believe the key driver of growth, at least in the next couple of years, will remain Tier 1/2 cities rather than penetration into Tier 3/4 cities, which we estimate have a much lower advertising value (i.e. market revenue). Whether it s penetrating new lowertier cities, increasing more screens in highertier cities, or hiking ad prices once or twice every year, Focus Media has been increasing its supply. However, supply is not the dominating driver of growth; it is demand that ultimately determines which markets the company can aim to penetrate. On the demand side, a key question is whether the rise of new media, such as mobile internet, could gradually replace all other traditional media. Newspaper, magazine and TV ads have undergone a significant decline in ad revenue in China (1 to per year in the last three years), while innerbuilding media still maintains stable growth, as evidenced by a 13% revenue CAGR in the past two years for Focus Media in this category. During , innerbuilding media segment revenue grew from Rmb5.1bn to Rmb7.8bn (78% of total 2016 revenue). The 11% CAGR over this period was broadly in line with overall ad expenditure in China during this period, suggesting stable share in the advertising market. Overall, we expect revenue from innerbuilding advertising to grow at a 13% CAGR in E, driven by a growing audience and superior media format. This segment is an important driver of the company s topline, as innerbuilding media accounted for about 75% of revenue in Given the company s strong bargaining power and operating leverage, we expect higher revenue to drive margin expansion, and we raise our margin forecasts for this segment to 7679% for E, from 75% on average over So why can innerbuilding media, or what Focus Media refers to as life circle ad media maintain a stable share of corporate advertising budgets, and why has this media been accelerating in the past two years? We think one of the most important reasons is the high value this format offers, based on several merits. (1) Exposure to a captive audience: Focus Media s display resources are highly exposed to people s lives. Its ads are placed in locations highly visible to people entering and exiting residential buildings and office buildings via elevators, as well as people going to the cinema. Moreover, office and residential building elevators in China tend to be small enclosed spaces inconvenient for conversation; apart from looking at mobile phones, display screens or poster frames inside such elevators are the only items to capture people s attention. We believe ads displayed on such media in such locations have a higher chance of being viewed, with potential to leave a deeper impression on people s minds. (2) Growing audience: According to Cushman & Wakefield, office building supply in Tier 1 cities will increase at 12% in E, compared with 11% in According to the National Bureau of Statistics, residential building area in large cities increased about 45% in Considering about half of existing residential buildings do not have elevators, and almost all newly built residential buildings do, we estimate that the area of elevatorenabled buildings has increased more than 1 per year in the past few years. We believe a growing audience will create higher advertising value, and drive revenue growth of Focus Media. (3) Targeted higherincome middle class: Focus Media s ad media are located in office buildings, elevatorenabled residential buildings and cinemas, and thus are exposed to 全球投资研究 8

9 people with higherthanaverage income. As such, we believe Focus Media s ad resources are of higher value and more attractive to advertisers. (4) Lower price than TV ads and online ad streaming. According to CTR Market Research, Focus Media s CPM (cost per mille impressions) in multiple cities is lower than the CPM of local television stations, and also cheaper than online ad streaming, making it more economical to advertise on Focus Media. (5) Highly effective way of building new brands. Given the above, we believe Focus Media s display resources are the most effective way to make a brand popular all over China in a short space of time. According to WPP s BrandZ 2016 report on the top 100 most valuable Chinese brands, in the last two years, 81% of the top 100 brands in China have placed their ads on Focus Media s network, suggesting the high value of Focus Media s advertising network. Exhibit 12: We forecast 1+ revenue growth for LCD media, most coming from higher tier cities Revenue of LCD media Exhibit 13: driven by increasing number of LCD screens Number of LCD screens (Rmb mn) Tier1 cities Tier2 cities % Tier3 cities Revenue growth ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% E 2018E 2019E 2020E Number of LCD screens 000' yoy 15% 1 5% 5% Exhibit 14: Office building supply to maintain 12% growth in E Total area of firstclass office buildings Exhibit 15: Revenue per LCD is much higher in Tier 1 cities Revenue per LCD (sqm) CAGR CAGR (Rmb) Tier1 cities Tier2 cities Tier3 and others 45,000,000 35% 45,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000, % 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000, ,000 20,000,000 15% 20,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, % 15,000 10,000 5,000 Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen Total E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: Cushman & Wakefield 全球投资研究 9

10 Exhibit 16: We forecast 1+ revenue growth for poster frame media too, again mostly from higher tier cities Revenue of poster frame media Exhibit 17: on wider installation of poster frames Number of poster frames (Rmb mn) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Tier1 cities Tier3 cities Tier2 cities Revenue growth 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% E2018E2019E2020E 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Number of poster frames 000' yoy Exhibit 18: Area of residential properties increased 45% per year over Area growth of residential properties in 40 large and medium cities Exhibit 19: Revenue per poster frame is much higher in Tier 1 cities Revenue per poster frame 6% 40 large and medium cities: residential property area sold as % of current total area (Rmb) 7,000 6,000 Tier1 cities Tier2 cities Tier3 and others 5% 5,000 4% 4,000 3% 3,000 2% 2,000 1% 1, E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: NBS Source Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research 全球投资研究 10

11 Cinema preshow ads: A fast growing advertising media Increased market penetration key Cinema advertising is the fastest growing segment of Focus Media, with revenue up 65%/42%/51% yoy in and on our estimates set to grow a further 22% over E. In cinema advertising, Focus Media rents preshow time slots from cinema operators and sell the slots to advertisers and agencies. The core competitive advantage of Focus Media lies in a network effect backed by its leading market share in cinema advertising and broad client base. As of 2016, Focus Media covers more than 1,500+ cinemas and 10,000+ screens, accounting for 24% of total screens in China (up from 21% in 2015). In the future, Focus Media plans to further increase its screen coverage by penetrating into lower tier cities and signing more partners. We expect its screen penetration will increase to 4 in 2021E, from 24% as of Moreover, we expect stable margins on leading market share and relatively strong bargaining power. Preshow cinema ads are one of the fastest growing ad segments in China as a whole, with revenue rising 33%/4/45% in versus the total advertising market in China growing at about a 17% CAGR over the same period. The rapid growth of the cinema advertising industry is driven by rising movie viewership (35%/52%/9% yoy in ) thanks to the booming movie market in China. The captive nature of cinema advertising also underlies the high value of cinema ads, in our view. The future driver of the industry lies in the stable growth of China s movie industry and viewership, the latter of which we forecast to grow at an 11% CAGR through Another driver is higher advertising coverage. As of 2016, only 4 of screens in China have advertising coverage, and most of them are in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. However, we expect the coverage to increase to 65% by 2021E, thanks to major players increasing their screen penetration. In the US, growth of preshow ads is also in line with movie box office growth. In 2016, the preshow ad market size was about 7% of box office revenue, up from 6% in As noted by the Cinema Advertising Council (CAC) in its 2016 report, the high value of cinema ads resides in the high ratio of millennial moviegoers, which is considered valuable to advertisers. Exhibit 20: We forecast preshow ad market revenue to reach Rmb8.5bn in 2021E Market size (revenue) and growth of cinema preshow ads Exhibit 21: and account for a higher percentage of box office and total advertising market size Preshow ad market size vs. box office and total advertising (Rmb mn) Market size of cinema preshow ad Preshow ad mkt size / box office (LHS) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 yoy 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Preshow ad mkt size / total advertising (RHS) 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Source: EntGroup, Gao Hua Securities Research Source: EntGroup, Gao Hua Securities Research 全球投资研究 11

12 Exhibit 22: driven by increasing admissions to cinemas Total admissions to cinemas in China Exhibit 23: and higher advertising coverage Cinema screens with advertising coverage Admission (mn) yoy Screens with ad coverage Penetration rate E 2018E 2019E 2020E ,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: EntGroup, Gao Hua Securities Research Exhibit 24: US preshow ad market size is about 7% of box office Market size of US cinema preshow ad Market size of cinema preshow ad in US (US$mn) Market size of preshow ad / box office % 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% % 5.6% 5.4% Source: CAC Competitive landscape: Consolidated but still intense The market structure of cinema preshow ads is somewhat consolidated. Focus Media is the largest player with a 63% market share in Wanda Media, a subsidiary of Wanda Film ( SZ) is the second largest player, and the third player Jingmao is a subsidiary of Changyou (CYOU, Coverage Suspended). Though Focus Media leads with network advantage, competition in the industry is still intense. Wanda Media covers preshow ads of all cinemas operated by Wanda Film. As Wanda Film will grow its selfowned cinemas very quickly (32%/21% in 2017/18E, according to our estimate) and will also have cinemas from CJ CGV and Bona Cinema joining its network, we expect the resource growth of Wanda Media to be very rapid. Moreover, China Film ( SS, Not Covered) also has eyes on the cinema ad business, though its market share is still less than 2% (as of 2016). Despite competition, we think Focus Media s market share will slightly increase, because Wanda Media and China Film mostly operate their own cinemas and it would be difficult for them to sign cinemas from other cinema investment companies due to the competitive relationship. In comparison, Focus Media as an independent agency can sign cinemas from various cinema 全球投资研究 12

13 investment companies, thus gaining access to a bigger market. As cinema investment companies are still fragmented and the consolidation process is still slow, we do not see any material threat to Focus Media s market share. Exhibit 25: Focus Media has leading market share Market share in cinema preshow ads, 2016 Exhibit 26: We expect Focus Media s market share to slightly increase Focus Media s cinema ad revenue and market share 2% (Rmb mn) Focus Media's cinema ad revenue Market share 14% 6,000 5, % Focus Media Wanda Media Jingmao Others 4,000 3,000 2, , E2018E2019E2020E2021E Source: EntGroup, company data Exhibit 27: Cinema investment companies are still fragmented Market share of cinema investment companies by box office, % 4.5% 3.8% Wanda Cinema Dadi Cinema Hengdian Cinema Jinyi Cinema 62.8% 3.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% China Film Investment CGV Stellar Cinema Golden Harvest Yaolai Cinema Bona Cinema Others ` Source: Maoyan 全球投资研究 13

14 Diversified revenue sources and strong bargaining power Rising revenue contribution from the internet a blessing or a concern? In the last few years, the revenue contribution from internet industry clients has increased from 16% in 2014 to 26% in 2016, thanks to the growth of the internet industry. We note some concerns over this mix change: some worry that fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and autos, which used to be Focus Media s most important client source, would be a drag in the future; some also worry that reliance on internet industry clients may subject the company to a revenue slowdown if the internet industry slows down. Focus Media s revenue sources are diversified into multiple industries and the company is thus relatively immune from industry specific risk (Exhibit 28). Revenue from FMCG and the auto industry is stable. For the internet industry, Focus Media benefits from competition among internet companies, like Didi Dache vs. Kuaidi Dache, Eleme vs. Baidu Delivery, etc. The trends and hotspots change rather quickly, but there will always be new trends emerging and new companies coming to advertise on Focus Media, for example the recent emergence of bike sharing company Ofo. As long as the internet remains popular, Focus Media s revenue growth is unlikely to be compromised, in our opinion. We think the ultimate driver is the growth of the advertising industry and the economy. In the past four years, Focus Media s share of China s advertising industry has been stable at about 2%. We think inner building ads and cinema ads remain two valuable advertising media and Focus Media will continue to grow in step with the industry. Exhibit 28: Revenue contribution from internet is rapidly increasing Focus Media revenue contribution by client industry Exhibit 29: In value terms, auto and FMCG is stable Revenue from FMCG and auto industry clients Others Real estate & furniture Communications Services Autos (Rmb mn) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 FMCG Autos E FMCG Entertainment Internet 1, E 全球投资研究 14

15 Exhibit 30: The ultimate driver is growing advertising market size in China Advertising market size in China and Focus Media s share (Rmb bn) Advertising market size in China Focus Media's share 2.5% % % Source: Company data, emarketer Strong bargaining power leads to superior financials Focus Media has a 9 market share in inner building LCD advertising, 7 in poster frame ads, and 63% in cinema preshow ads, as of However, its downstream is very fragmented. In inner building advertising, downstream players are real estate management companies who operate locally, with no nationwide players. In cinemas, Focus Media s downstream customers are cinema investment companies, which also operate in a highly fragmented market the top 10 account for about 37% of market share (Exhibit 27). As a result, Focus Media s bargaining power is strong, which leads to low cost inflation. In 2016, media rental costs for inner building media increased 11% yoy, while revenue increased 13% yoy, and the gross margin of inner building media increased 0.5 ppt. The gross margin of cinema ads also increased from 59% in 2014 to 62% in 2015, although it dropped to 61% in 2016 due to contract renewals. Potential M&A opportunities The company has completed a series of acquisitions in the past two years, mainly in media entertainment, sports and finance, including Miaopai, Shanghai DataSeed Information Technology, and Hero Sports. Focus Media has a large and highincome audience base, but apart from advertising, the company has few ways to monetize the huge audience traffic. We believe that investing in media companies could potentially give Focus Media opportunities: it could advertise the product or service of the acquired company on its network and an audience, if interested, might potentially purchase the product or service. Focus Media may even be able to make use of its idle advertising slots, limiting any impairment of current advertising income. Focus Media has abundant cash on its balance sheet (Rmb4.4bn as of 2016) and in our view is in a position to conduct acquisitions if it chooses to. Given its broad audience, potential monetization opportunities are promising. The company has stated that its intentions regarding M&A are to realize higher monetization of its audience traffic and find new revenue sources. 全球投资研究 15

16 Earnings estimates Exhibit 31: Income statement of Focus Media Rmb mn E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Total revenue 7,497 8,627 10,213 12,054 14,096 16,326 18,593 20,831 Inner building media 6,156 6,945 7,847 9,069 10,337 11,648 12,974 14,317 LCD display 3,263 3,544 4,092 4,682 5,280 5,899 6,529 7,157 Poster frame 2,893 3,401 3,755 4,387 5,057 5,749 6,445 7,160 Cinema media 956 1,353 2,044 2,631 3,334 4,126 4,901 5,580 Other media & business yoy growth 12% 15% 18% 18% 17% 16% 14% 12% Gross profit 5,263 6,088 7,194 8,612 10,145 11,815 13,454 15,080 Gross margin 7 71% 7 71% 72% 72% 72% 72% Inner building media 74% 74% 74% 76% 77% 78% 79% 79% LCD display 78% 79% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 85% Poster frame 69% 69% 68% 69% 71% 72% 73% 74% Cinema media 59% 62% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% Other media 43% 33% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% Business tax and addons As % of sales 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Sales expense 1,902 1,729 1,944 2,195 2,524 2,874 3,218 3,543 As % of sales 25% 2 19% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% Administrative expense As % of sales 7% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% EBIT (operating profit) 2,398 3,369 4,160 5,216 6,301 7,479 8,639 9,816 yoy 19% 4 23% 25% 21% 19% 16% 14% EBIT margin 32% 39% 41% 43% 45% 46% 46% 47% Interest income (185) (125) (148) (200) (253) (311) (386) (475) Interest expense Impairment loss Nonoperating revenue ,040 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 Nonoperating loss Profit before tax 2,948 3,968 5,316 6,568 7,604 8,938 10,272 11,636 Income tax ,117 1,293 1,519 1,746 1,978 Minority interest 2 (3) (3) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) Net income to shareholders 2,415 3,389 4,451 5,455 6,315 7,422 8,530 9,662 yoy 16% 4 31% 23% 16% 18% 15% 13% EPS 全球投资研究 16

17 Exhibit 32: Quarterly analysis of Focus Media Rmb mn YTD analysis 1Q16 1H16 9M Q17 Revenue 2,105 4,927 7,452 10,213 2,420 YoY 29.2% 22.4% 17.4% 18.4% 15. COGS 729 1,502 2,256 3, Gross profit 1,375 3,425 5,196 7,194 1,636 YoY 33.8% 20.6% 15.3% 18.2% 19. Gross margin 65% % Sales tax and other % of revenue 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.3% Sales expense 429 1,003 1,540 1, % of revenue 20.4% 20.4% 20.7% Administrative expense % of revenue 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% SG&A ratio 28% 28% 28% 27% 26% Other operating expenses EBIT 720 1,806 2,754 4, YoY 45% 15% 8% 23% 33% EBIT Margin 34% 37% 37% 41% 39% Finance expense (29) (76) (102) (142) (49) Investment gains (1) Nonoperating revenue , Nonoperating expense Earnings before tax 783 2,274 3,749 5,316 1,414 Tax Net income 641 1,893 3,133 4,448 1,101 % of revenue 3 38% 42% 44% 45% Minority interest (8) (8) (14) (3) (6) Net income attributable to majority shareholders 649 1,901 3,147 4,451 1,107 YoY 39% 24% 26% 31% 7 QoQ analysis 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Revenue 2,105 2,822 2,525 2,761 2,420 YoY 29% 18% 9% 21% 15% QoQ (8%) 34% (11%) 9% (12%) COGS Gross profit 1,375 2,049 1,772 1,998 1,636 YoY 34% 13% 6% 26% 19% Gross margin 65% 73% 7 72% 68% Sales tax and other % of revenue 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% Sales expense % of revenue % 15% 18% Administrative expense % of revenue 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% SG&A ratio 28.1% % 23.7% 26.2% EBIT (65) 47 EBIT 720 1, , YoY 45% 1% (3%) 71% 33% EBIT Margin 34% 38% 38% 51% 39% Finance expense (29) (47) (26) (40) (49) Investment gains (1) 1 Nonoperating revenue Nonoperating expense Earnings before tax 783 1,491 1,475 1,567 1,414 Tax Net income 641 1,252 1,241 1,314 1,101 % of revenue 30.5% 44.4% 49.1% 47.6% 45.5% Minority interest (8) (0) (5) 10 (6) Net income attributable to majority shareholders 649 1,252 1,246 1,304 1,107 YoY 39% 17% 31% 45% 7 QoQ (28%) 93% () 5% (15%) Source: Company data 全球投资研究 17

18 Government subsidy Focus Media receives a material amount of government subsidy every year. Most of the government subsidy is tax refunds granted by local governments, and can be considered a recurring stream of income. On top of this, in 2016, the company recognized a roughly Rmb400mn oneoff subsidy related to its Ashare listing, and management expects another portion will be recognized in in As the company will continue to pay taxes and is a sizable tax contributor to local governments, we expect the recurring government subsidy to account for a stable percentage of pretax profit in the next few years (Exhibit 33). Exhibit 33: Major government subsidies received in Date Subsidiary receiving subsidy Subsidy (Rmb mn) Government 4/28/2016 Chizhong Ad 190 Zhejiang Ningbo government 6/2/2016 Shanghai New Focus Media Ad 80 Shanghai Changning government 6/25/2016 Focus Media Broadcasting 90 Chengdu New Tech Park 7/22/2016 Chizhong Ad 102 Zhejiang Ningbo government 9/30/2016 Shanghai New Focus Media Ad 200 Shanghai Changning government 12/20/2016 Shanghai New Focus Media Ad 200 Shanghai Changning government 1/25/2017 Chizhong Ad 112 Zhejiang Ningbo government 2/17/2017 Shanghai New Focus Media Ad 278 Shanghai Changning government Source: Company data Exhibit 34: Recurring tax refund as % of pretax profit is rather stable Government subsidy of Focus Media (Rmb mn) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Ashare listing reward Recurring tax refund Recurring tax refund as % of pretax profit E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 全球投资研究 18

19 Key risks Selloff pressure from unlocked shares On Dec 29, 2016, 3bn shares were unlocked from restriction, and on April 17, 2017, 505mn shares were unlocked. The total shares unlocked account for 41% of the total shares of the company. According to Wind, 550mn shares have been transacted through block trades post the first date of unlocking, accounting for 16% of the unlocked shares. Selling of unlocked shares is still underway and the shares could potentially be subject to selloff pressure, creating an overhang. However, we note that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a new regulation effective from May 27, stipulating that a given shareholder may not sell more than 3% of a company s total shares within any consecutive 90day period (among which no more than 1% through bidding transaction and no more than 2% through block trading). We view this as positive for Focus Media as we believe it could go some way to alleviating short term share selloff pressure. Exhibit 35: Unlocking information regarding Focus Media s shares Date of lockup expiration Number of shares unlocking (mn) % of total shares 12/31/2018 4,591 53% 4/17/ % 12/29/2016 3,036 35% Total number of shares 8, Source: Company data Bargaining power weakening in cinema advertising The downstream players in cinema advertising are cinema investment companies. The market is fragmented but there are a few large players like Dadi Cinema and Jinyi Cinema. The industry might further consolidate, weakening Focus Media s bargaining power and posing an upside risk to rent expenses. Advertising dollar shifting online In the past three years, online advertising has been growing very fast (304 in ), especially mobile internet. Even though mobile penetration is already high, there is still risk that advertisers will shift their dollar from traditional media (including outofhome) to online, given that online media offers a more targeted advertising service. Pitfalls in diversification The company has made a series of investments in areas like entertainment, finance and sports, seeking to better monetize its user traffic and create new sources of revenue. However, its expertise does not lie in entertainment or finance. Some of these acquisitions could fall through or the acquired targets fail to integrate well, potentially diminishing earnings and cash returns. 全球投资研究 19

20 信息披露附录 申明 本人, 廖绪发, CFA, 在此申明, 本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法 此外, 本人薪金的任何部分不曾与, 不与, 也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关 投资摘要 投资摘要部分通过将一只股票的主要指标与其行业和市场相比较来评价该股的投资环境 所描述的四个主要指标包括增长 回报 估值倍数和波动性 增长 回报和估值倍数都是运用数种方法综合计算而成, 以确定该股在地区研究行业内所处的百分位排名 每项指标的准确计算方式可能随着财务年度 行业和所属地区的不同而有所变化, 但标准方法如下 : 增长是下一年预测与当前年度预测的综合比较, 如每股盈利 EBITDA 和收入等 回报是各项资本回报指标一年预测的加总, 如 CROCI 平均运用资本回报率和净资产回报率 估值倍数根据一年预期估值比率综合计算, 如市盈率 股息收益率 EV/FCF EV/EBITDA EV/DACF 市净率 波动性根据 12 个月的历史波动性计算并经股息调整 Quantum Quantum 是提供具体财务报表数据历史 预测和比率的高盛专有数据库, 它可以用于对单一公司的深入分析, 或在不同行业和市场的公司之间进行比较 GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN 是侧重于长期做多建议的相对稳定的全球投资策略 GS SUSTAIN 关注名单涵盖了我们认为相对于全球同业具有持续竞争优势和出色的资本回报 因而有望在长期内表现出色的行业领军企业 我们对领军企业的筛选基于对以下三方面的量化分析 : 现金投资的现金回报 行业地位和管理水平 ( 公司管理层对行业面临的环境 社会和企业治理方面管理的有效性 ) 信息披露 相关的股票研究范围 廖绪发, CFA:A 股传媒 A 股耐用消费品 A 股食品饮料 中国消费品 A 股耐用消费品 : 格力电器 美的集团 青岛海尔 A 股食品饮料 : 古井贡酒 洋河股份 贵州茅台 泸州老窖 青青稞酒 山西汾酒 青岛啤酒 (A) 五粮液 A 股传媒 : 奥飞娱乐 光线传媒 歌华有线 华录百纳 蓝色光标 中南传媒 分众传媒 省广股份 华谊兄弟 IMAX 中国 凤凰传媒 东方明珠 掌趣科技 万达电影 华策影视 中国消费品 : 合生元 光明乳业 现代牧业 华润创业 蒙牛乳业 康师傅控股 青岛啤酒 (H) 统一企业 中国旺旺 万洲国际 伊利股份 与公司有关的法定披露 以下信息披露了高盛高华证券有限责任公司 ( 高盛高华 ) 与北京高华证券有限责任公司 ( 高华证券 ) 投资研究部所研究的并在本研究报告中提及的公司之间的关系 高盛高华在过去 12 个月中曾从下述公司获得投资银行服务报酬 : 分众传媒 (Rmb12.88) 高盛高华在今后 3 个月中预计将从下述公司获得或寻求获得投资银行服务报酬 : 分众传媒 (Rmb12.88) 高盛高华在过去 12 个月中与下述公司存在投资银行客户关系 : 分众传媒 (Rmb12.88) 公司评级 研究行业及评级和相关定义 买入 中性 卖出 : 分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单 一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的总体潜在回报决定 任何未获得买入或卖出评级且拥有活跃评级 ( 即不属于暂停评级 暂无评级 暂停研究或没有研究的股票 ) 的股票均被视为中性评级 每个地区投资评估委员会根据 2535% 的股票评级为买入 1015% 的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来管理该地区的投资名单 ; 但是, 在某一特定分析师所覆盖行业中买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同 此外, 每个地区投资评估委员会管理着地区强力买入或卖出名单, 该名单以总体潜在回报规模和 / 或实现回报的可能性为主要依据确立各自研究范围内的投资建议 将股票加入或移出此类强力买入或卖出名单并不意味着分析师对这些股票的投资评级发生了改变 总体潜在回报 : 代表当前股价低于或高于一定时间范围内预测目标价格的幅度, 包括所有已付或预期股息 分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格 总体潜在回报 目标价格及相关时间范围在每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明 研究行业及评级 : 每个行业研究的所有股票名单可登陆 通过主要分析师 股票和行业进行查询 分析师给出下列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及 / 或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法 具吸引力 (A): 未来 12 个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值 中性 (N): 未来 12 个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值持平 谨慎 (C): 未来 12 个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值 暂无评级 (NR): 在高盛于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下, 投资评级和目标价格已经根据高盛的政策予以除去 暂停评级 (RS): 由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标, 或在发表报告方面存在法律 监管或政策的限制, 我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价格目标 此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标 ( 如有的话 ) 将不再有效, 因此投资者不应依赖该等资料 暂停研究 (CS): 我们已经暂停对该公司的研究 没有研究 (NC): 我们没有对该公司进行研究 不存在或不适用 (NA): 此资料不存在或不适用 无意义 (NM): 此资料无意义, 因此不包括在报告内 一般披露 本报告在中国由高华证券分发 高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格 全球投资研究 20

21 本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用 除了与高盛相关的披露, 本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性, 客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的 报告中的信息 观点 估算和预测均截至报告的发表日, 且可能在不事先通知的情况下进行调整 我们会适时地更新我们的研究, 但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做 除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外, 绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版 高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构, 从事投资银行业务 高华证券 高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系 我们的销售人员 交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略 我们的资产管理部门 自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策 本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论, 或在本报告中讨论交易策略, 其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件, 该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反 任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级, 此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力 高华证券及其关联机构 高级职员 董事和雇员, 不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师, 将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸, 担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手, 或买卖上述证券或衍生工具 在高盛组织的会议上的第三方演讲嘉宾 ( 包括高华证券或高盛其它部门人员 ) 的观点不一定反映全球投资研究部的观点, 也并非高华证券或高盛的正式观点 在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区, 本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约 本报告不构成个人投资建议, 也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需求 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况, 以及 ( 若有必要 ) 寻求专家的意见, 包括税务意见 本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动 过去的表现并不代表未来的表现, 未来的回报也无法保证, 投资者可能会损失本金 某些交易, 包括牵涉期货 期权和其它衍生工具的交易, 有很大的风险, 因此并不适合所有投资者 外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响 投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过 取得当前的期权披露文件 对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品, 例如, 期权差价结构产品, 其交易成本可能较高 与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供 所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在高华客户网上并向所有客户同步提供 高华未授权任何第三方整合者转发其研究报告 有关某特定证券的研究报告 模型或其它数据, 请联络您的销售代表 北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 2017 年未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝 复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发 全球投资研究 21