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1 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol129, No16 J une, , 2, 1, 1 (11, ; 21, ) :, : ,, 2000, 2001 ( ), t t, 5184 %, 01 62t / 11 12t / ; 79 % 85 % ; ( ),, : ; ; ; : (2010) ,, [1 ],,,, 115 %, t t [2 ],, ;,,,, [3 5 ],,, CGE L EA P [6, 7 ] : ; : : (2006BAD20B0625) ; (2007BAC03A11) : (19802),,, E2mail : guoyq1 snrr1 ac1cn

2 , [ 8 10 ],, [11, 12 ] L EA P MAR KAL,,, 20 30,,, 30 ( ),, ( ) 2 211, 30 ( ), ; ( ) ,,,,, ; ; ; ; ; ; 212,, 20 90,, IPCC,,,, [13 ] IPCC, : ;,, 3 : (1),,,, (2)

3 6 : 1029,,, (1) : G C = G C + G C (1),,, (3),, Gico 2, : Gico 2 = Kico 2 M i (2) Kico 2, M i [14 ],,, ;, (2) (3) 3, : E Eco2 = 3 i = 1 EConi E Fi Coi (3) E Eco2 1,, Tab11 Carbon dioxide emission factors and carbon oxidation rate of all types of energy sources ; EConi,, 3, i = 1,2,3 ; E Fi ; Coi, (t / t ) : [ 15 ] ; [ 14 ] ( 1 ), t t, 5184 %, : , 7502 t, 0170t / 0161t / ; t, 0162t / 1112t / 1996, t, ( CDIAC) t, : , 2 10

1030 29 91055 t 91732 t [15 ] 1 1995 2006 CO2 Fig11 The change of carbon dioxide emission caused by primary energy during 1995 2006 in China 312 1995,, 1995 69 673 t 2006 140 314 t, 1101 ( 2), 79 %

4 t t [15 ] CO2 Fig11 The change of carbon dioxide emission caused by primary energy during in China ,, t t, 1101 ( 2), 79 % 85 %, %,, CO2 Fig12 The carbon dioxide emission caused by coal and its proportion during ,, t, t ( 3),, 14 % 19 %, , 1995,, t t, 2133 ;, % % ( 4)

6 : 1031 3 1995 2006 CO2 Fig1 3 The carbon dioxide emission caused by oil and its proportion during 1995 2006 4 1995 2006 CO2 Fig1 4 The carbon dioxide emission caused by natural gas and its

5 6 : CO2 Fig1 3 The carbon dioxide emission caused by oil and its proportion during CO2 Fig1 4 The carbon dioxide emission caused by natural gas and its proportion during (1), ( ) 4 ;, 2000 t, t, t, 6000 t 6 7, ,, 1995, ( ) ; 1995, 2000, ( ), ; 2005, 3 ( ), ( ), 9 ( ) ( 5) (2) 7, 6 7, , 2003

1032 29 5 1995 2005 CO2 Fig15 The regional pattern of

1995, 2000 and 2005 6 1995 2006 7 CO2 Fig16 The

6 CO2 Fig15 The regional pattern of carbon dioxide emission caused by primary energy in 1995, 2000 and CO2 Fig16 The carbon dioxide emission in 7 regions during in China

7 6 : CO2 Fig17 The proportion of carbon dioxide emission in 7 regions during in China 8 CO2 ( ) Fig18 The carbon dioxide emission in China (1), t ; 2004, t ;, t, 3 :, 5 % 10 % ;, 10 % 20 % ;, 20 %, 2000

8 Fig110 The ordering of average emissions and growth rate of different provinces in the Tenth five2years Plan period 314 ( ) 8 9, 30 ( ), ( ) ; ( ), 8894 t, t ;, 276 t, t, ( 9943 t ), ( 446 t ) ;, 2315 %,, 218 % ( 10)

9 6 : , : (1), t t, 5184 %, %, %, 1155 % (2) ( ), 10 ( ), 7, ; 2005, 3 ( ), ( ), 9 ( ) (3),, ;,, 8894 t ;, 276 t,, : [ 1 ],, 1 1 :,20071 [ 2 ] IPCC1 Climate Change 2007 : Mitigation1 Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, N Y, USA1 [ 3 ] Ernst Worrell, John A1 Laitner, Michael Rut h, et al1 Productivity benefit s of industrial energy efficiency meas2 ures1 Energy, 2003, 28 (11) : [ 4 ] William H Golove, Lee J schlpper1long2term trends in U1 S1 manufacturing energy consumption and carbon dloxide emissions1 Energy, 1996, 21 (7/ 8) : [ 5 ] Armannsson H, et al1 CO2 emissions from geot hermal power plant s and natural geot hermal activity in Iceland1 Geot hermics, 2005, 34 (3) : [ 6 ] Olivier Bahn1 Combining policy inst rument s to curb greenhouse gas emissions1 European Environment, 2001, 11 (3) : [ 7 ] Ho2Chul Shin, Jin2Won Park, Ho2Seok Kim,et al1 Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas elect ric2 ity generation in Korea using L EAP Model1 Energy Policy, 2005, 33 (10) : [ 8 ] Sue J Lin, I J Lu, Charles Lewis1 Grey relation performance correlations among economics, energy use and carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan1 Energy Policy, 2006, 35 (3) : [ 9 ],,, 1 L EAP CO2 1 ( ),2006,46 (12) : [ 10 ],,, 1 1,2007,20 (1) : [ 11 ], 1 SO2 CO2 1 ( ),2002,42 (10) : [12 ],,, 1 CO2 1, 2004,20 (3) : [ 13 ] 1 1 :,20031 [ 14 ] 1 1 :,20001 [ 15 ]

10 Study on the primary energy2related carbon dioxide emissions in China GUO Yi2qiang 1, 2, ZH EN G Jing2yun 1, GE Quan2sheng 1 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing , China ; 2. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing , China) Abstract : Glo bal change is an impo rtant scientific issue t hat co ncerns t he survival and develop ment of all human beings. Acco rding to t he Fo urt h A ssessment Repo rt of t he United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 90 % of t he possibilities of global warming are attributed to greenhouse gases produced by human use of fo ssil f u2 els. Carbon dioxide produced by energy consumption has great p ushing effect s on global climate change. The st udies concerning energy consumption and t he emission of carbon dioxide have become t he academic focus in current energy environment st udies, and t hey are necessary for t he securit y of eco no mic develop ment and diplo matic negotiatio ns of China. In order to promote t he sustainable develop ment of economy, energy and environ2 ment of China, t he paper analyzes t he domestic energy consumption and t he present stat us and various emission scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions in China. Firstly, according to t he co nsumptio n of p rimary energy in China, t he paper summarizes t he carbo n dio xide emission factors and met hods t hat are adapt to t he sit uation of China. Secondly, it analy2 zes t he primary energy2related carbon dioxide emissions during the period from different fossil f uels and in different regions. The primary energy2related carbon dioxide emissions present a trend first decrease and later increase f rom 1995 to The inflex2 ion of t he changes was 2000, t he carbon dioxide emissions since 2001 are bigger t han t hose before The total carbon dioxide emissions increased from million tons carbon to million tons carbon, and t he per capita emissions increased f rom tons carbon to tons carbon f rom 1995 to 2006, wit h an annual rate of %. The struc2 t ural difference in t he p rimary energy2related carbo n dio xide emissio ns was relatively great, among which coal account s for 79 % 85 %, oil, 14 % 19 %, and nat ural gas is % %. The seven regions and most of provinces ( municipalities or autonomous regions) have a similar trend in t he total China s carbon dioxide emissions. The average carbon dioxide emissions for Nort h China and Nort heast China are t he highest among t he seven regions of China. The annual amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the growing rates of Liaoning, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and Henan are much greater t han t hose of t he ot her provinces (municipalities or autonomous regions). Key words :climate change ; t he primary energy ; carbon dioxide ;emissions

274 28, [2,3 ],,,,,,,, /, : (O ECD) PSR ( Pressure2State2Response) [47 ], [812 ], MA [2,3,13 ], 1990 (O ECD) PSR, ; ; / PSR, [1417 ] (MA) 2000, 2005,

274 28, [2,3 ],,,,,,,, /, : (O ECD) PSR ( Pressure2State2Response) [47 ], [812 ], MA [2,3,13 ], 1990 (O ECD) PSR, ; ; / PSR, [1417 ] (MA) 2000, 2005, 28 2 2009 3 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol128, No12 Mar1, 2009,, (, 100101) : (MA),, 4 15 75, ;;,,, ;, : ; ; ; : 100020585 (2009) 0220273211 1,,,,,,,,, :,,,,, 2005 [1 ], 4 16, 18 - - - 15123km 2, 21 %,