2000 3,,,,,,, (Marriage Market) (Mary Ann Lamanna and Agnes Riedmann,1991) [1 ],,,,,,,, (Marriage Squeeze),,, 11112,,,, : (1),, ;,,,, (2

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1 6 3 Vol. 6 No Market and Demographic Analysis May., 2000 : (2000) , (1, ;2 21, ) :,,,, : ; ; ; :C :A Study on Marriage Squeeze in China GUO Zhi2gang 1,DENG Guo2sheng 2 (1 Institute of Population Research, Renmin University of China, Beijing , China ; 2 Development Research Academy for the 21 st Century, Tsinghua University, Beijing , China) Abstract :Marriage squeeze becomes one of the hot issues in population transition of China. This paper proposes some new theoretical concepts, and suggests a new approach to measure marriage squeeze,which is applied to population data to analyze the marriage squeeze in China in the past and the near future. This paper also analyzes the consequences of marriage squeeze in the three aspects of proportion of lifetime unmarried,age of first marriage, and age difference between the couples. The analysis turns out that imbalance of sex ratio at birth in recent years will result in marriage squeeze in near future,but it may not be so severe as exaggerated in mass media. Key words :marriage squeeze ; sex ratio at birth ; age difference between couples ; sex ratio in marriage matching 80, 80, : : ( ), 1

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16 2000 3,,,,,, (3),,, (4) , , (1965, 1965 ), , , , 1965, , , (5) , ,2015 4,,, 2020, : Marriage Squeeze,, : [1 ] Mary Ann Lamanna and Agnes Riedmann. Marriages and Families : Making Choices and Facing Change [ M]. Fourth Edition. Belmont,California :Wadsworth Publishing Company, , [2 ],. [J ].,1995, (3). [3 ],. [J ].,1998, (2) 1 [ 4 ]Akers,D. S,. On Measuring the Marriage Squeeze[J ]. Demography,1967,4(2) : [ 5 ]Schoen,R. Measuring the Tightness of a Marriage Squeeze[J ]. Demography,1983,20(1) : [6 ] 1 [J ]1,1989, (4) 1 [7 ], 1 [A]1 1 [M]1 :,

17 [8 ] [ ] 1 [ Z]1 :,19831 [9 ] [ ]. [M]1 :,19911 [10 ] [ ], 1 [M]1 :,19951 [11 ], 1 [M]1 :,19951 [12 ], 1 [J ]1 1993, (1) 1 [13 ] 1 [M]1 :,19891 [14 ] [9 ]1 [15 ] [10 ]1 [16 ] [8 ]1 [17 ], 1 [J ]1,1984, (3) 1 [18 ] 1 [A]1 1 [M]1 :,19881 [19 ] 1 ( ) [J ]1,1986, (5) 1 [ 20 ] United Nations. Patterns of First Marriage :Timing and Prevalence[ Z]. New York :United Nations,1990. [21 ][18 ]1 [22 ], 1 [M]1 :,19901 [23 ] 1 [M]1 :,19921 [24 ], 1 [M]1 :,19841 [25 ] [24 ]1 [26 ], 1 [J ]1,1993, (1) [ :, ] ,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, 18,, ( )

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the