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1 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol129, No16 J une, , 2, 1 3, 1, 2 (11, ; 21, ) :, 3 500, : 3, , ; , ; , 3, 3,, ; t, 30, ( ) : ; ; : (2010) , [ 1,2 ],, [ 3 ] 20 70, [4 ] 1000, 6 ; [5 ] 500, ; [6 ], ; [7 ],,, : ; : : ( KZCX22YW231524) ; (2007BAC03A01) ; ( T200708) ; (2006BAB15B02) : (19762),, E2mail : xuxc1 : (19632),, E2mail : ac1cn

1046 29,,,, [3 ],,,,,,,,,,,,, [8, 9 ], 3, 1, 1470 2000 531, 2 211 1978 ( ),, 1470 1967,, 5, 1, 2, 3 ( 3 ), 4, 5

2 ,,,, [3 ],,,,,,,,,,,,, [8, 9 ], 3, 1, , ( ),, ,, 5, 1, 2, 3 ( 3 ), 4, 5 ; 1978, ( 1), [ 6 10 ] 1 ( ) Fig11 Region distributing on dry/ wet change in in Hubei Province

3 6 : , ,, ( ) [11 ] ( ) [12 ] , , , 4 9 [13 ],, 4 9 [ 4 ] : 1 : Ri > ( R ) 2 : ( R ) < Ri ( R ) 3 : ( R ) < Ri ( R ) 4 : ( R ) < Ri ( R ) 5 : Ri ( R ) R 4 9, Ri 4 9,,,, ,,, ( ) ( ), (, ),, 213,,,, [14 ] ( ) 4, ;, 1 Tab11 Statistic resuts by drought and flood grades with different documents ( %) ( %) ( P = 01 01) : ;

4 , 4 ( 1), ( ), 2 ; 1, ; ( P = 0101) ( ),,, 1, 2 % 3 %, 70 %,,,,, 5,, ( ),,,, 1880 ( 1882 ), 20,,,, ( , 88 ) (, ), ( Kolmogorov2Smirnov ),,,, ( SPSS1310 ), P P ( 01355) > P ( 0105), P (01780) > P (0105),,, R0101 = R0101 = 01707,,, 3 500,,,, 5 : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, :, 6,, R0101 = 01566,, ( = arccos Ri, Ri ),, R0101 = 01167, 3

6 : 500 1049 ( 1) [15 17 ], 3,, 3,, : r = n ri W i ( i = 1,2,3,4,5,6) (1) i = 1 w i = S i/ S (2) : r ; ri ; W i ; S i ; S,, 3 531 ( 2) 4 411 2 3 1470 2000 (5 ) Fig12 Dry/ wet change of three regions

5 6 : ( 1) [15 17 ], 3,, 3,, : r = n ri W i ( i = 1,2,3,4,5,6) (1) i = 1 w i = S i/ S (2) : r ; ri ; W i ; S i ; S,, ( 2) (5 ) Fig12 Dry/ wet change of three regions in Hubei Province from 1470 to 2000 ( smooth curve every five years), 3, : 190, (531 ) 36 % ; 144, 27 %, 163, 31 % ; 170, 32 %, 126, 24 % ; 96, 18 %, 3 500, [18 ] : I = 2 F F + D : I, 0 2 ; F ; D 20,, I 1, ; 1, ; 1,

6 , : I, ( [ 19 ] ), ; ,,, 3, , ,, ,,,, Fig13 Curve of dry and wet change in recent 531 years in Hubei Province 412,, [20 23 ],,,,,,, 3,, m = 128, = 0105 ;, Morlet 3 ( 2) : 2 Tab12 Comparison of the cycle results of dry/ wet series made by Spectral Estimation and Wavelet Analyzing Method ( ) 3 ( ) ( ) 11, 64, 95, , 22, 50, 80, 140, 160, 180, , 50 60, , 4, 36, 51, 157, 250 3, 11, 20, 33, 50, 90, , 250 3, 35, 50, 160, , 69, 95, 103, 235, 253 4, 11, 20, 35, 65, 95, 150, , 65, 95, 250 : 3,, 11 11

6 : 500 1051 :, 11, 50 60 80 100, 140 160 180 ;, 3 35 50 160 250, 11 20 33 90, ;, 20 26 65 95 250, 4 11, 3, 4 [ 24 ] 11 20 50 [25 ] 80 100 150 [26 ],,, 3 50 70 ( 4), 11 1630 1720,

7 6 : :, 11, , ;, , , ;, , 4 11, 3, 4 [ 24 ] [25 ] [26 ],,, ( 4), , , , ; , 19 80, 4,, 80 4 I Fig1 4 Cycle change of dry/ wet series with Wavelet Analyzing Method in the first region (, ) 413,, [27 ] ( ),,

8 ,,, t t, [ ] n ( x1 x2 ), t,, n2 n1 ( n1 = n2 = n) { x i} j : t j = ( X1 - X2 ) n/ S S 2 2 (4) X1 X2 ; S1 S2 ; n n = t, 5 (, 2 ) 5a n = 30, = 0105 t = 21042, t, t, 5b n = 70, = 0105 t = ( ), n = 30, ( ) ; n = 70 ( ) 5 4 2, 500, [ 31 ], 3,,,,,,, 5 Fig15 J ump of dry/ wet change curve in the first region,,

9 6 : : ;, 1549, 1820, [ 25 ] [ 32 ],,,,,,,,, 3, n = 30, , 2, 1655, 1771, n = 70, 2, , 2, 1873,,, 30,, ( ) 3 Tab13 Referenced year table for the jump of dry/ wet series n :, +,,, 5 (1) 3,, 3 (2), 3, , , ; , ; , (3) ,, ,, (4) ,,

10 ,, : [ 1 ] Eddy J A. Past Global Changes Project, Proposed Implementation Plans for Research Activities, Global Change Report No. 19,Sweden,Stockholm,IGBP l 112. [ 2 ] Duplessy J C, J. Overpeck. The PA GES/ CL IVAR IN TERSECT10N Proving paleoclimatic perspec rive needed to understand climate variability and predictability, Coordinated research objectives of t he IGBP and WCRP programs,venice,italy [ 3 ],,..,1993,12 (3) :1 9. [ 4 ],, , 1997, (1) :1 11. [ 5 ],. 500.,2004,32 (3) : [ 6 ],..,2005,21 (5) : [ 7 ],,, ,1997, (1) : [ 8 ],,.. ( ),1987,21 (2) : [ 9 ],,. 50.,2002,22 (3) : [ 10 ].. :. ( ). :,l [ 11 ]. ( ). :,2007. [ 12 ]. ( ). :,1995. [ 13 ],,..,2004,13 (3) : [ 14 ] :,1981. [ 15 ]..,1998,7 (3) : [ 16 ],, , (1) : [ 17 ],..,1998,18 (3) : [18 ],, :. :, [ 19 ],,,. 510.,2005,21 (1) : [ 20 ],,,..,2007,56 (10) : [ 21 ],..,1999,10 (1) : [ 22 ],,,..,1999,23 (1) : [ 23 ],..,2008,19 (4) : [ 24 ],..,2004,27 (3) : [ 25 ],,,..,2006,47 (2) : [ 26 ],,,..,2006,24 (4) : [ 27 ],,. 50.,2003,8 (1) :9 18. [ 28 ]..,1991, (2) : [ 29 ],.. :.. :, [ 30 ],..,2007,31 (5) : [ 31 ],..,1979, (34) 3 : [ 32 ],, ,1993,17 (6) :

11 6 : Reconstruction and comparative analysis of dry/ wet series in last 500 years in Hubei Province XU Xin2chuang 1,2, GE Quan2sheng 1, ZH EN G Jing2yun 1, L IU Cheng2wu 2 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing , China ; 2. School of Resources and Environment Science, Xianning College, Xianning , Hubei, China) Abstract : The reconstruction of long series climate wit h annual resolution is an objective proposed by t he IGBP2PA GES. Historical records on drought/ flood are an important data so urce for reco nst ructing historical climate series. There are abundant and sequential dro ught/ flood records in t he Chinese historic document s. This research employed 6 re2 gional drought/ flood series wit hin Hubei Province, which were derived from Collection of H istorical Records on Cli m ate i n H ubei Provi nce d uri ng Past 500 Years and covered a pe2 riod from 1470 to By classification analysis of t he 6 regional drought/ flood series, t hey were classified into 3 categories which individually rep resented eastern, nort hern and sout hwestern regions of Hubei Province. After testing validity of t he reconstructed series, we analyzed regio nal dry/ wet variabilit y, cycles and abrupt changes. The result s showed t hat on multiple decades scale and were wet episodes and and were dry episodes in eastern region ; , and were t hree wet episodes and and were two dry epi2 sodes in nort hern region ; , , and were fo ur wet episodes and t here were no o bvio us dry episo des in so ut hwestern regio n. The spect rum analysis and wavelet analysis illust rated t hat t he dry/ wet variatio ns of each re2 gion were feat ured by several significant cycles spanning f rom 3 4 years to 250 years. Moreover, t he three regions were commonly controlled by years cycle. Running T2 test illustrated that on cent urial scale 2, 4 and 5 abrupt changes occurred individually in sout hwestern, nort hern and eastern regions while on 302year scale 5, 4 and 7 abrupt chan2 ges occurred individually in sout hwestern, nort hern and eastern regions. The abrupt chan2 ges simultaneously occurring in t hree or any two regions had t he same trends ; t he abrupt changes f rom dry to wet in 1822 occurred in all of t he t hree regions. Key words :recent 500 years ; dry/ wet series ; climate change ; Hubei Province

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions 7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005