GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol125, No16 Nov1, ,2, 1, 1, 1 (11, ; 21, ) :,, , Mann2Kendall GIS, 50, 60 90,

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1 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol125, No16 Nov1, ,2, 1, 1, 1 (11, ; 21, ) :,, , Mann2Kendall GIS, 50, 60 90, 90, 50 60, :,, 60 70, 80, 90, : ; ; ; : (2006) ,, 100,, [1 ] IPCC 20, 016,, (10 30 N) %, % [2 ] Bradley [ 3 ] /, N, N,, 50 Hulme [ 4 ] , ( 014mm/ a), 113mm/ a, (0 30 N), (30 50 N),, 50,, [ 5,6 ], : ; : : ( G2002CB412507) ; ( ) : (19822),,, E2mail

2 , [7 ], 1987, [8 ] ,,,, 90, [9 11 ] 40 50,,,,,,,,,,,, 3S ( GIS -, RS -, GPS - ), / [ 12 ],,,,, / , 50, , ( IDW) ( GIDS), ( Thin Plate Smoot hing Spline), ( Kriging) [13 ], [14 16 ] ANU SPL IN, [17,18 ], ANU SPL IN, ( 1), ,, 5, 40,, (3 4 5 ) (6 7 8 ) ( ) ( ),, ( 1) R ( ij, l) = aij + bij X l ( i = 1,2,,m ;j = 1,2,,n ; l = ) (1)

3 6 : , 1994 Fig11 Comparison of observed and interpolation precipitation of 1981 and 1994, R ( ij, l) X l ( i, j) ( mm) ; b, 50 (mm/ a), b > 0, 21113, ( WMO) Mann2Kendall [19 ],,,, - [ 20 ] M2K, ( i, j) Rl (l = 1954,,2002) (2) M : 4 S M = /, = N ( N - 1) - 1, = 2 2 (2 N + 5) 9 N ( N - 1), Kendall,, 2 M S R l (l = 1951,,2002) ( Rl1, Rl2, 1951 l1 l2 2002) Rl1 < Rl2 ; N M, M, ; M, = 0105,, M (2) > M a = 11645, 95 % ; = 011,, M > M a = [19 ], 90 % ( 2), 5 40, D EM a,

1034 25 2 730 Fig12 730 meteorological stations of China, 01569mm 5 20 50, 60, 90 ( 3b 3d), 01316mm 0136mm ( 3c), 0112mm, 20 60 80, 90, 60mm ( 3e),, 20 60 70, 80 3a 3e 50,,

4 Fig meteorological stations of China, 01569mm , 60, 90 ( 3b 3d), 01316mm 0136mm ( 3c), 0112mm, , 90, 60mm ( 3e),, , 80 3a 3e 50,, , [21 ], [10,11 ] 40 50,, ,,,,,, ( 4, 4a) ( b = 22 24mm/ a), (b = 2 8mm/ a) ( 4, 4b) (b = mm/ a),, ( 4, 4c) - (b = mm/ a),

6 : 1035 3 1951 2002 Fig1 3 The interannual changing trend of annual and seasonal anomalies of precipitation in

5 6 : Fig1 3 The interannual changing trend of annual and seasonal anomalies of precipitation in China during ( 4, 4d) ( b = mm/ a) ;, (b = 1 2 mm/ a) ; ( 4, 4e), (b < 2015mm/ a), 4a 4e :, : ;, ;

1036 25, M2K ( 5), 95 % 27165 %, 6104 %, 3319 %, 26136 % 95 %, ; 18119 %, 12152 % 95 %, 2119 %, 1515 % 95 % ; 3918 %, 30198 % 95 %, ;,,,, ( 95 %, 90 % ) 5 ( %) Fig15 Annual and seasonal percentage of

6 , M2K ( 5), 95 % %, 6104 %, 3319 %, % 95 %, ; %, % 95 %, 2119 %, 1515 % 95 % ; 3918 %, % 95 %, ;,,,, ( 95 %, 90 % ) 5 ( %) Fig15 Annual and seasonal percentage of decrease and increase areas at different confidence levels 313, M2K M > 90 % (M > 90 %, M < 290 % ), - ( 4, 6 ), ( mm/ a) Tab11 The interdecadal changing trend of precipitation in seven typical regions ( mm/ a) ,,

7 6 : ( ) Fig17 The annual changing trend of precipitation in seven typical regions during , -, 20 50, 60 80, 90 ;, , 90 ( b = 81062mm/ a), 95 % ; 20 50, 60, 80 ( 2),, - ;,, -, ; -, 2 ( mm/ a) Tab1 2 The seasonal changing trend of precipitation in seven typical regions ( mm/ a) ,,

8 ,, (b = 1128mm/ a),, (b = mm/ a), 95 % ; -, 014mm/ a, : - 50, 20 50, 60, 90, ; 50 50, 60, 80, ;, 90,, , : 60 90, 90, % %, 6104 % ;,, :,, 60 70, 80, 50 : 50, 60, 80,, 90 20,, 0154mm, 50, N, N [22 25 ] %, 416 %, 119 %, 0139 %, 015 % [26,27 ] 0157mm/ a, (0154mm/ a), ; 90,, N 412 ( ),,,

9 6 : 1039,,,,,, ENSO : [ 1 ] Folland C K, Karl T R, Christy J R,et al1 Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis (eds Houghton T, et al)1 Cambridge : Cambridge Univiversity Press, [ 2 ] IPCC1 Climate Change 2001 : Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability1 Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, [ 3 ] Bradley R S, Diaz H F, Eischeid J K, et al1 Precipitation fluctuations over nort hern hemisphere land areas since t he mid219 th century1 Science,1987,237 : [ 4 ] Hulme M1 A global land precipitation climatology for t he evaluation of general circulation models. Climate Dyn.,1992,7 : [ 5 ], ( )1 :, [ 6 ], 1 1 :, [ 7 ] 1 1 :, [ 8 ],, ,2004,62 (2) : [ 9 ],,, 1 1,1991,2 (2) : [ 10 ] 1 1,1999,57 (2) : [ 11 ] Zhai P M, Zhang X B, Wan H, et al1 Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes o2 ver China1J1 Climate,2005,18 (7) : [12 ],,, 1 ( I) - / 1,2004,19 (4) : [ 13 ],, 1 1,2002,57 (1) : [ 14 ],, 1 1,2003,25 (6) : [ 15 ] 1.,2003,19 (5) : [ 16 ],, 1 1,2001,21 (5) : [ 17 ] Hustchinson M F. Anusplin Version 412 User Guide1 [ 18 ] Hutchinson M F1 Interpolation of rainfall data wit h t hin plate smoot hing splines I1 two dimensional smoot hing of data wit h short range correlation1 Geographic Information Decision Analysis, 1998, 2 : [ 19 ] Thomt hwaite C W1 An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geog1 Rev1,1948,38 : [ 20 ] Yue S,et al1 Power of t he Mann2Kendall and Spearman s tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological se2 ries1journal of Hydrology,2002,259 : [21 ],, 1 ( I) : 1,2006,2 (1) :3 81 [ 22 ] Diaz H F, Bradley R S, Eischeid J K. Precipitation fluctuation over global land areas since t he late 1800 s. J1 Geophys1 Res1,1989,94 : [ 23 ] Trenbert h K E. Recent observed interdecadal climate change in t he Nort hern Hemisphere,Bull11 A mer1 Meteor1 Soc., 1990,71 : [ 24 ], 1 ( )1,2002,47 (21) :

10 [ 25 ],, ,2003,27 (6) : [ 26 ] Cao M K, Stephen D, Prince,et al1 Regional pattern and interannual variations in global terrestrial carbon uptake in response to changes in climate and at mospheric CO21 Tellus,2005,57B : [ 27 ] New M, Lister D, Hulme M,et al. A high2resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas1 Climate Research,2002,21 :1 251 The characteristics of spatio2temporal patterns in precipitation in China under the background of global climate change WAN G Ying 1,2, CAO Ming2kui 1, TAO Bo 1, L I Ke2rang 1 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing , China ; 2. The Department of Geoscience,Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,Zhejiang , China) Abstract :Under t he background of global climate change, there are even greater uncertain2 ties of t he precipitation changing trend and regional differences1 Therefore, it is one of t he mo st important frontier fields of presently global change research to st udy t he changing characteristics of p recipitatio n in different regio ns1 In t his st udy, we analyzed t he spatio2 temporal patterns of precipitation in China during 1951 to 2002 by using spatial spline in2 terpolation met hod and Mann2Kendall trend test, also wit h t he support of GIS, based on measurement s at abo ut 730 meteo rological statio ns natio nally1 The result s showed t hat t here was an obvious decreasing trend f rom t he 1960s to t he 1990s in China, and a recover2 y occurred in t he late 1990s, while in summer and winter p recipitatio n was co mparable with t hat in the 1950s and t he 1960s1 Furthermore, result s showed t hat precipitation pres2 ented clear regio nal spatial differences in t he analyzed period : In No rt h China, Cent ral China, and southern Nort heast China, precipitation reduced persistently in t he period we st udied, while sharp increase occurred in t he sout h of t he Yangtze Valley, and in nort hern Xinjiang, nort hern Nort heast China, and western Tibet, precipitation decreased f rom t he 1960s to t he 1970s, and had a relative recovery in the 1980s1 While climate in nort hern China appeared to have a sign of t urning f rom dry to wet, and North China, Nort heast China Plain still have been at t he stage of drying which began since t he mid 1960s1 On t he whole, t he total declining trend of precipitation in China was comparable wit h t hat of glob2 al in the analyzed period, but regional variation patterns were opposite f rom global t hat precipitation increased obviously in t he middle and high latit ude regions, and decreased in t he tropical and semi2tropical regions1 Key words :climate change ; precipitation ; spatial pattern ; temporal variations

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions 7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005