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1 : 3 :,,,,,,,,,,,, :,30 9 %, (1994) (The Myth of Asiaπs Miracle),,,,,1997,,,,, :,,,,, (1994) 1998, 1998,,,,,,, ( ),, :,?,? 3,, :100871, edu. cn ;,, :100871, edu. cn 2008 ( : 08AbJ G228), 4,,,

2 ,,??,? ( ) () (Shift2Share Analysis), Fagerberg(2000) Timmer (2000) Peneder (2003) L P t, L P t i, t, i, i = 1,2,3,,L P t i i t, S t i t i : L P t = Yt n = L = t L T i L T (1), t 0 : L P t - L P 0 i = 1 L P 0 = (2) : n i = 1 n ( S t i - S 0 i ) L P 0 i + i = 1 Y t il T i n i = 1 L P t is t i (1) n (L P t i - L P 0 i ) ( S t i - S 0 i ) + ( L P t i - L P 0 i ) S 0 i i = 1 (2) L P 0 : (2), i,t 0,, i : (2),,, i,t 0,, i : (2), () (2) ( 1) 1 1 ( ),( 2) 2, 3815 %,,,,,,( x13 > x11 + x12 ), 1 %,1 % 5

3 : 1, ( x23 > x21 + x22) , = = = = ,, () , 100 = ( e1) ( e2) ( e3), = = = ( p1) ( x11) ( x12) ( x13), ( p2) 4. 4 ( x21) ( x22) ( x23) 12 %32 % ( p3) 7. 8 ( x31) ( x32) ( x33),,,,, ( ),, (), , , , , , ,,,, 11 1,,,,,, ,, 6

4 ,, 1990,35 % 50 % ;1990, 30 %( ), 3 3,20 80, ( ), ,, ,,, ,, , ,1991, , , ( , , ),,,,,,,, 21, , , , , , ,, 2,3 2 3, , 2 3 () (), 7

: 2 2 50 %,, 1991 (1978 1985,1985 1988,1988 1991), 50 %,,,,, 20

5 : %,, 1991 ( , , ), 50 %,,,,, 20 90,,,,,,,, ,,,, ,,,, :, ,, , 82 %, 8 3

6 , 64 %, 18,, ,1994,1998, , , ,, 60 %, ,,,1998,1998, ,4,,1998 4, , 82 %, , ( ) ( ) (),, ( TFP), :,(aggregate level) TFP (sectoral level) TFP : Y i = f i ( K i,l i, t) (3) i = 1,2,3,,: G( Y i ) = i G( K i ) + i G( L i ) + G( A i ) (4) G( X) = ( dxπdt)πx = XΠX, G( A i ) i TFP, i = f ( K i ) K i ΠY i i, i = f (L i ) L i ΠY i i, G( Y) : Syrquin(1984) 9

7 : G( Y) = d ( Y i i ) Y = i G( Y i ) = i i G( K i ) + i i G( L i ) + i G( A i ) (5) i = Y i ΠY,, Y : Y = Y i, K = K i,l = L 1,= G( Y) = G( K) + G(L) + G( A) (6) i i,= i i,g( A) TFPTFPG( A) TFP i G( A i ),TSE( Total Structural Effect) : TS E = G( A) - i G( A i ) = i i G( k i ) + i i G( l i ) (7) k i = K i ΠK, l i = L i ΠL (5), d i = f ( K i ) K i ΠY i, i = f ( L i ) L i Π Y i, G( k i ) = gk i k i - gk k G( l i ) = gl i L i - gl (7) : L TS E = 1 Y K i [ f ( K i ) - f ( K) ] + 1 Y L i [ f ( L i ) - f ( L) ] = A ( f K ) + A ( f L ) (8) f ( K i ) f ( L i ) i,f ( K) f ( L ) (6) A ( f K ) A ( f L ), (6) : ( ) ( f ( K i ) - f ( K) > 0,f ( L i ) - f ( L ) > 0),( ) ;, ( ) ( f ( K i ) - f ( K) < 0 f (L i ) - f (L) < 0), ( ),A ( f K ) Af ( L),TSE,(3) (4),,TFP TFP G ( A) i G( A i ), ( ), (3), (4) (3) TSE () TFP,, (8) TSE,TFP,(6) G( A) (8) (6),,, : ; ; 10

8 , ( i = f ( K i ) K i ΠY i, i = f ( L i ) L i ΠY i ),,,: ; 11 :, ;,,,, ( ) 21 : ( ),,,(2007),, : (), (4) (5),(8) G( Y) = G( K) + G(L) + i G( A i ) + TS E (9) (9),GDP : G( K) ; G( L) ; i G( A i ), ; TSE 5 f ( L i ) L i, f ( K i ) K i, K i L i, f ( K i ) f ( L i ), 5 5 () (1994), (2007) 2000,, , 1987, , (1991), 11

9 :,,,, (2008), ,90, : ;,,5, , : (1) ( ) ; (2),Chenery(1986) ;, :,?,, ( ),,, ;, :,,,,,,, () : 11,,,;,,,,,,, 12

10 ,,,,,, () ,, 67 8, 6, 6, ( ) (Π1 ) 2002 (Π1 ), % 100 % % 319 % (3 4 ), % 4611 % % 5010 % () 7,, ( ) (Π) (Π) % % , % 5010 % % 2114 % % 2816 % ,,,,1992,,,,,,,, :,, ;,,(7) 7,,,,, (1999),- 015 %,(1999),, (2002),,20 90 GDP 13

11 : 7 :,,,,, 8, ,,,, , 01278, 01067,,8 8,,, ( : Π) ( :Π) ,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,, 20 80, 50 %, ;20 90, ;1998,,,, (1994) , ;,,, ,,,,,,, 14

12 ,2008 :, 4,1999 :, 5,2007 :17, 7,2002 : :,1,1991 :, 4 Chenery H. B., Robinson S., Syrquin M., 1986, Industrialization and Growth : A Comparative Study, Oxford University Press, pp Fagerberg Jan, 2000,Technological Progress, Structural Change and Productivity Growth : A Comparative Study, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11, Krugman P., 1994,The Myth of Asiaπs Miracle : A Cautionary Fable, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, pp Peneder Michael, 2003,Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 14, pp Syrquin, M., 1984,Resource allocation and productivity growth, In : Syrquin, M., Taylor, L., Westphal, L. E. ( Eds. ), Economic Structure Performance Essays in Honor of Hollis B. Chenery, Academic Press, pp Timmer P. M., Szirmai A., 2000,Productivity Growth in Asian Manufacturing : the Structural Bonus Hypothesis Examined, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11, Structural Change and Technical Advance in Chinaπs Economic Gro wth Liu Wei and Zhang Hui (School of Economics, Peking University) Abstract :This article empirically measures the effect of structural change of industries on Chinaπs economic growth compared to the impact of technical advance on Chinaπs economic growth, using decomposed expressions of labor productivity and total factor productivity. The study illustrates that the impact of structural effect on the economic growth is decreasing during the thirty years since Chinaπs economic reform in 1978, gradually exceeded by the impact of technical advance, which means that technical advance will play a more important role than market mechanism in the future. However, our study also indicates the decreasing of the impact of structural change on economic isnπt equivalent to the disappearance of gains from market reform. Some of the institutional and developmental factors retard the improvement of allocative efficiency. In this perspective, China still has a great deal to improve the efficiency of market mechanism. Key Words :Structural Change ; Technical Advance ; Economic Growth JEL Classification :O330,O470 ( : ) ( : ) 15

2006 4,,,, TFP (,2003),, 90,,,, 2005,, ;,,,,,, (disembodied),,,, (,2003),,,,,, : y = Af ( k, l) : y, k, l, A, : = - -, ( ), ( ),,,,90,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,

: 3 :,,,,,, : -,,, (,1994,2002) ; (,2003) ; (, 2002) ; (,2005) ; (2006),,,,,, ( TFP, ),,, (,2005 ;,2005),,,,,,,,, 1997, 3, 4 2006 4,,,, TFP (,2003),, 90,,,, 2005,, ;,,,,,, (disembodied),,,, (,2003),,,,,,