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灾卷袁
5 years ago
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1 Vol. 35 No. 2 March Population Research * Birth Interval between First and Second Child and Its Policy Implications Liu Shuang Zou Mingru Abstract Using data of international and national fertility surveys this paper analyzes the characteristics and changing trends of average birth intervals between the first and second child in different countries and periods with a focus on Chinese women in recent decades.analytical results indicate that there are some common traits of birth intervals between the first and second child of women in different societies and a two - year interval is the lowest limit of average natural birth intervals. It s necessary to execute restricted regulations of birth intervals between the first and second child in former fertility policies and it has already achieved great effect.however with the change of people s fertility desire and voluntarily delay of the second birth it is increasingly difficult to intervene in birth intervals by fertility policy and it will provide good opportunities and conditions for government to adjust and improve relevant fertility policy. Keywords Average Length of Birth Intervals Natural Birth Interval Fertility Policy Authors Liu Shuang is Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China.Beijing ruc.edu.cn Zou Mingru is PhD Candidate Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Beijing * 05JJD840146

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4 Table 1 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Chinese Women in Reproductive Ages II Table 2 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Chinese Women in Reproductive Ages since Late 1980s ~ 2000 * ~ 2005 * % % *

5 ~ % % ~ United Nations United Nations. Fertility and Family Planning in Europe Around 1970 A Comparative Study of Twelve National Surveys. New York 1976.

6 88 35 Table 3 3 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some European Countries and U. S. A * 1970 ** United Nations. Fertility and Family Planning in Europe Around 1970 A Comparative Study of Twelve National Surveys. New York ~ ~ 44 * ** Table 4 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages by Duration of Marriage in Some European Countries and U. S. A 0 ~ 4 5 ~ 9 10 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 19 20

7 ~ ~ ~ ~ USAID 20 DHS Gora Mboup and Tulshi Saha ~ ~ trimean ~ 7 3 ~ 5 2 ~ ~ 5 2 ~ ~ Gora Mboup and Tulshi Saha trimean TM trimean TM TM = Q1 + 2Q2 + Q3 /4 TM

8 Table ~ 1995 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some African Countries Gora Mboup & Tulshi Saha. Fertility Levels Trends and Differentials. DHS Comparative Studies No. 28 Macro International Inc. Calverton Maryland USA DHS - Ⅱ DHS - Ⅲ 1991 ~ ~ 1995 Table 6 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some Asian and North - African Countries DHS 28 2 ~ 3 3 ~ 4 4 ~ 5 5 ~ 6

9 ~ 1995 Table 7 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some Latin - American and Caribbean Countries ~

11 2 93 /References ~ 7 Gu Baochang Fertility and Fertility Transition Number Timing and Sex of Chidren. Population Research ~ 20 Qiao Xiaochun Exploration of Population Development Target under Different Birth Intervals and Parities. Population and Economics ~ ~ 24 Tu Ping Analysis on Distribution of Birth Interval by Parity in Shanxi Province Chinese Journal of Population Science ~ 40 Chen Jianli Analysis on Trend of Birth Interval between the First and Second Child. Population and Economics United Nations Fertility and Family Planning in Europe Around 1970 A Comparative Study of Twelve National Surveys. New York. 6 Gora Mboup and Tulshi Saha Fertility Levels Trends and Differentials. DHS Comparative Studies No. 28 Macro International Inc. Calverton Maryland USA

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~ ~ * 40 4 2016 7 Vol. 40 No. 4 July 2016 35 Population Research 2014 1 2016 2016 9101. 0 40 49. 6% 2017 ~ 2021 1719. 5 160 ~ 470 100872 Accumulated Couples and Extra Births under the Universal Tw o-child