32 ChinaJournalofEconomics Vol.3,No.2:138-160 June2016 1, 2 3, CGSS,, :(1), (2),, (3), ; ; DOI:10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20160513.002!,,,,, 1980,, 1,,E-mail:sunwk@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn 2,,E-mail:ang.sun@gmail.com 3,,E-mail:w.yjl@163.com
32 139,, :, 1980 1, (ChineseGeneralSocialSurvey,CGSS)20062008, U 1940, 10.67%, 60,, 2070 80, 1980 36.10%,, 1 :CGSS20062008,,,,,,,,,
140, :,,,,,,,, Ebenstein(2010),,, : 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 4 ; ",,,,2090,,,,,, "%", Bohannon(1896), Fenton(1928) Hooker(1931),,,Dyer (1945),
32 141,, : 100, Falbo(1986)141,16, PolitandFalbo(1987), FalboandPolit(1986) 100,,,, 2070,,, (2002) 19802001 22 305,,,, (2002) :20 80,, 1986,,, (,1992;,1997;,2001;,2009;,1988) (2000)5,,,, (2009) 1210, : ; (2010), (2010),,, (Falbo,1984),,, :,
142, 3~6 7~12 13~19,,,,,,,,Cameronetal.(2013),, ( ),,,,,, Choukhmaneetal.(2013), 60% Ebenstein (2010) (missinggirls) Wei andzhang (2011a) Edlundetal. (2013) "%# Schumpeter(1934),,, (Acsand Armington,2004;Audretsch and Feldman,1996;Audretsch and Keilbach, 2004;CohenandLevinthal,1989) (Jacobs,1969),Lietal.(2012),WeiandZhang (2011b) ;Liand Wu(2014), Schumpeter,
32 143,, :, (Djankov etal.,2006;leeetal.,2004) Lietal.(2012), "%$, : (2009)1210, : 68%;,, 10.5%;,, ;,,,, WeiandZhang(2011b),, (Ebenstein,2010),, 1, Cameronet al(2013),,,,,,,,, (2000) 1,,
144 -,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2000),,,, # #%" (ChineseGeneralSocialSurvey),CGSS, 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013,,, 20062008, 2006 10151, 20086380 1860, 9061 5224
32 145,, :, 10% ( 1), 1.3 #%#,,, WeiandZhang (2011b), Lietal.(2012),,, Schumpeter, : CGSS,,, 1 1 80 80 0.17 0.12 0.18 0.20 0.12 0.25 0.17 0.13 0.17 (0.38) (0.33) (0.38) (0.40) (0.32) (0.43) (0.37) (0.34) (0.38) 0.20 0.14 0.21 0.21 0.13 0.26 0.20 0.15 0.21 (0.40) (0.35) (0.41) (0.41) (0.34) (0.44) (0.40) (0.35) (0.40) 0.15 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.11 0.23 0.14 0.11 0.14 (0.36) (0.31) (0.36) (0.40) (0.31) (0.42) (0.35) (0.31) (0.35) 24.25 22.47 24.46 27.42 24.06 29.03 23.57 20.50 23.76 (23.96) (23.18) (24.05) (26.78) (24.99) (27.47) (23.26) (20.60) (23.40) 3.59 3.24 3.63 3.23 2.99 3.35 3.67 3.55 3.68 (1.64) (1.57) (1.65) (1.53) (1.46) (1.55) (1.66) (1.64) (1.66) 3.63 3.31 3.67 3.32 3.18 3.39 3.70 3.48 3.71 (1.66) (1.52) (1.67) (1.53) (1.46) (1.57) (1.68) (1.59) (1.68) 3.53 3.72 3.51 3.72 3.82 3.67 3.50 3.62 3.49 (0.85) (0.82) (0.85) (0.81) (0.78) (0.83) (0.85) (0.85) (0.85) 1.81 1.86 1.80 1.74 1.81 1.70 1.82 1.93 1.82 (0.77) (0.80) (0.76) (0.74) (0.80) (0.71) (0.77) (0.81) (0.77)
146 80 80 1.84 1.82 1.84 1.82 1.81 1.82 1.84 1.84 1.84 (0.59) (0.61) (0.59) (0.59) (0.59) (0.59) (0.59) (0.64) (0.59) 1.98 1.95 1.99 1.95 1.92 1.97 1.99 1.98 1.99 (0.54) (0.54) (0.54) (0.54) (0.53) (0.55) (0.54) (0.55) (0.54) : ;, ; 80 1980, 1980, 80 36%, 6%( 1), 20 70 80, 80 14%,,, 1,,,,,,, 80 80,, 80, 1,, 2 2 80 80 0.47 0.55 0.46 0.47 0.51 0.45 0.47 0.60 0.46 42.7 33.8 43.7 22.7 22.2 23.0 46.4 46.3 46.4 8.33 11.36 7.98 11.37 13.13 10.46 7.76 9.46 7.65 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.92 0.97 0.90 0.93 0.96 0.93 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.11 0.13 0.11 3.20 3.44 3.18 3.60 3.64 3.57 3.13 3.22 3.13 0.53 0.79 0.50 0.57 0.87 0.41 0.53 0.71 0.52 0.12 0.46 0.09 0.64 0.80 0.56 0.03 0.08 0.02
32 147,, : 80 80 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.14 0.40 0.72 0.37 0.50 0.84 0.32 0.39 0.59 0.37 8351 16692 6964 14104 19858 10847 6411 11079 6066 0.27 0.43 0.25 0.26 0.49 0.15 0.27 0.38 0.26 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.37 0.70 0.33 0.48 0.83 0.30 0.35 0.56 0.33 0.13 0.33 0.10 0.18 0.41 0.06 0.12 0.24 0.11 :, ; ( ) ( ) ; 1~5, 2,,,,,,,,,, #%$ OLS, : Y i =α0 +α1onlyi +α2x i +F i +Prov i +εi (1) only, X,F,Prov 0-1 ( ), Probit, ;,, OLS Cameronetal.(2013) Ebenstein (2010), Scharping (2003),,WeiandZhang (2011b)
148 Qian (2008), Ebenstein (2010),, ( IV + Probit), Z 1, : Z 1 =0 I[2]+fine male I[1.5]+fine I[1] (2),I[2] I[1.5] I[1] 2 ( ) 1 Fine, male, (2) (2),,, $ $%", 60 18, Probit 3 (1) ; 3(2) ; 3(3) 3, (1)(2)(3) df/dx -5.9% -5.9% -3.7%,,,,,, 3
32 149,, : 3, 4, 4 Ebenstein(2010), (1),, ( );(2) ;(3) ;(4), (2), 3 Probit : (1) (2) (3) -0.2517 *** -0.2534 *** -0.1746 *** (0.0503) (0.0515) (0.0640) 0.3283 *** 0.3195 *** 0.2698 *** (0.0264) (0.0274) (0.0393) -0.0264 *** -0.0276 *** -0.0301 *** (0.0015) (0.0016) (0.0024) 0.0106 *** 0.0080 * -0.0354 *** (0.0041) (0.0043) (0.0067) 0.0816 (0.0554) -0.4759 *** -0.4547 *** -0.5391 *** (0.0560) (0.0577) (0.0789) -0.0821 *** -0.0834 *** -0.0924 *** (0.0152) (0.0157) (0.0225) -0.3344 *** -0.3558 *** -0.3813 *** (0.0463) (0.0483) (0.0700) -0.0231-0.0255-0.0887 (0.0618) (0.0636) (0.0880) -0.1215 *** -0.1113 *** -0.1170 ** (0.0417) (0.0431) (0.0501) 0.0071-0.0062 0.1035 (0.0607) (0.0624) (0.0823) -0.1252 *** -0.1393 *** -0.1088 ** (0.0504) (0.0520) (0.0551) 0.2788 ** 0.4410 *** 0.8549 *** (0.1175) (0.1108) (0.1847) 13753 12785 6691 PseudoR 2 0.0778 0.0807 0.1034 :(1)(2)(3) Probit, 60 60, 60 *** ** * 1% 5% 10%,
150 4(1)(2)(3) 3,, 3,,, OLS, 4 ( ) (1) (2) (3) -0.9498 *** -0.9705 *** -0.8618 *** (0.2451) (0.2480) (0.2582) 0.3389 *** 0.3313 *** 0.2808 *** (0.0262) (0.0272) (0.0388) -0.0280 *** -0.0294 *** -0.0333 *** (0.0015) (0.0016) (0.0025) 0.0124 *** 0.0100 *** -0.0313 *** (0.0041) (0.0043) (0.0069) 0.0976 * (0.0551) -0.4747 *** -0.4546 *** -0.5310 *** (0.0555) (0.0571) (0.0779) -0.0766 *** -0.0769 *** -0.0822 *** (0.0152) (0.0158) (0.0226) -0.2121 *** -0.2235 *** -0.2097 *** (0.0637) (0.0673) (0.0956) -0.0054-0.0079-0.0687 (0.0616) (0.0633) (0.0872) -0.1415*** -0.1317 *** -0.1363 *** (0.0418) (0.0431) (0.0498) 0.0424 0.0322 0.1217 (0.0614) (0.0632) (0.0814) -0.0723*** -0.0832 *** -0.0625 *** (0.0534) (0.0552) (0.0572) 0.3240 *** 0.5024 *** 0.9575 *** (0.1173) (0.1112) (0.1847)
32 151,, : (1) (2) (3) 0.3421 *** 0.3624 *** 0.5232 *** (0.0397) (0.0422) (0.0688) 0.1564 *** 0.1761 *** 0.3501 *** (0.0392) (0.0418) (0.0688) -0.0045 0.0296 0.1313 (0.0464) (0.0508) (0.0840) -0.0760 *** -0.0818 *** -0.1199 *** (0.0123) (0.0129) (0.0204) -0.0316 * -0.0290-0.0467 (0.0185) (0.0200) (0.0312) 2.72E-06-1.69E-05-1.00E-04 (4.15E-05) (4.41E-05) (7.22E-05) -0.0245-0.0058 0.0208 (0.0214) (0.0206) (0.0366) 13753 12785 6691 Wald 1019.91 988.71 602.60 : $%#,, CGSS 5, 5 2006 2008 1069 621 10.53% 10.35% 2428 2510 23.92% 41.83% 6654 2869 65.55% 47.82% 10151 6000 6 ( (1) ) ( (2) )
152,,,, 1 6,, 6 ( ) (1)Probit (2)Probit -0.2534 *** -0.3171 *** 0.058 0.0542-0.1674 *** 0.0302 12785 12785 PseudoR 2 0.081 0.083 : 60 ; 3, 3, 7 (2), 7 ( ) (1)Ⅳ (2)Ⅳ (3)Ⅳ -1.8443 *** -1.8316 *** -1.3918 ** (0.3646) (0.3669) (0.5493) 0.0431** 0.0338 * 0.0125 (0.0178) (0.0184) (0.0277) 0.0001 *** 0.0001 *** 0.0002 *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) 5427 5090 2939 Wald 743.15 711.14 350.29 :(1)(2)(3) 60, 60, 60 ;, 1,, 6
32 153,, :,, : ;, & &%" : (2),, 8,,, 1 5, 8 (orderedprobit, Oprobit), ( (2) Ⅳ), 8 (1) (2) (3) Oprobit -0.0730-0.0988 0.0015 (0.0819) (0.0843) (0.1024) 1291 1207 725 PseudoR 2 0.043 0.037 0.040 Ⅳ 0.3908 0.5588 0.6164 (0.7145) (0.7095) (0.6070) 1291 1207 725 PseudoR 2 0.0434 0.0368 0.0401 Oprobit 0.0072-0.0102 0.0586 (0.0803) (0.0824) (0.1004) 1291 1207 725 PseudoR 2 0.040 0.035 0.033 Ⅳ 0.4737 0.5365 0.6199 (0.7679) (0.7658) (0.6489) 1291 1207 725 PseudoR 2 0.0402 0.0347 0.0337 :
154 9 :,, 9, 9,, Oprobit IV, 9 (1)Oprobit (2)Ⅳ PseudoR 2 PseudoR 2 PseudoR 2 PseudoR 2 : 0.0435-0.4527 (0.0907) (0.8301) 1202 1202 0.037 0.0372 0.0505-0.2096 (0.0726) (0.0330) 2345 2345 0.033 0.033-0.0662 0.9118 (0.0724) (0.5902) 2380 2380 0.0410 0.0415 0.0869 ** 1.7009 *** (0.0405) (0.3929) 5090 5090 0.0540 0.0556 &%# :,, :(1) / ; (2),, (3),,, (1),, (2)(3), 0 1~4 5~9 10
32 155,, : 10, OLS OLS,, OLS,,,OLS,,,,, 10 (1)OLS (2)Ⅳ R 2 /Wald R 2 /Wald -2.1434 *** 16.7861 ** (0.7305) (6.6752) 2397 2397 0.113 224.69-1.7165 ** 5.2835 (0.8065) (5.6447) 2397 2397 0.107 346.88 (1)Oprobit (2)Ⅳ PseudoR 2 PseudoR 2 0.0326-0.1551 (0.0668) (0.5875) 2397 2397 0.012 0.012 0.0346 0.1362 (0.0651) (0.5999) 2397 2397 0.010 0.010, CGSS,, ( ), Oprobit, 11,,,
156,, 10,,, 11 (1)Oprobit (2)Ⅳ PseudoR 2, PseudoR 2 : -0.0722-1.2380 * (0.0833) (0.7439) 1207 1207 0.033 0.0337-0.1524 * -2.0872 *** (0.0880) (0.7509) 1207 1207 0.049 0.0501 CGSS,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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160 DoesOne-ChildPolicyCorrodeChineseEntrepreneurship WenkaiSun 1,AngSun 2,Yijie Wang 1 (1.Schoolof Economics,Renmin Universityof China; 2.Schoolof Economics,Central Universityof Financeand Economics) Abstract Thepresentstudyusestwo wavesofcgssdatasettoinvestigate diferenceofentrepreneurshipbetweenonly-childandnon-onlychild.weemployed OrdinaryLeastSquare withinstrumentalvariablesthat weresuggestedinsome previousresearches.wefoundthatonly-childdonottendtostartownbusiness comparedwithnon-onlychild.inaddition,theonlychildhascomparablefriendsand appreciateshard-working eventhoughthey usualy haslow levelofhappiness, whereasnon-onlychildhavemuchcloserrelationshipwiththeirrelativesorfriends. ThesefindingsprovideevidencethatthefamilyplanningpolicymaycorrodeChinese entrepreneurship. We argue that the negative impact of one-child policy on entrepreneurshipismorelikelyfromthelackof socialinsurance ratherthanthe onlychild sownpersonalities. JELClasification J18,J24,J44