需求改善有望带来估值改善有望带来估值修正机会 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 753.HK 753.HK 753.HK 行业 : 航空运输更新报告评级 : 增持收市价 : 5.16HKD 目标价 : 5.83 HKD 公司概要中国国航是中国三大航空公司之一, 以及星空联盟成员, 于 2004 年 12 月在香港上市 该公司的主要基地位于北京, 截止到 2012 年 12 月 31 日, 国航 ( 含控股公司 ) 共拥有以波音 空客为主的各型飞机 461 架 投资概要 七月国内需求低于预期 : 中国国航 7 月旅客周转量 (RPK) 国内航线同比仅增长 4.7%, 增幅明显缩窄, 环比更是下滑近 5 个百分点, 主要由于国内宏观经济环境不佳情况下商务客流明显减少, 再加上天气原因取消了部分航班 因对旺季寄予较高期望, 国航国内航线 7 月客运运力 (ASK) 同比增长 8.7%, 远超需求增速, 客座率受拖累同比大幅下滑 3.1 个百分点至 81.4%, 票价亦出现大幅下滑 国际航线旺季成色明显 : 国航 7 月份国际航线需求和供给均按年弹 15.5%, 反映居民出境游需求火爆 运营效率方面明显好于国内航线, 客座率基本持平, 为 83.5%, 特别欧洲航线由于去年低基数影响, 恢复强劲 国航欧美航线占比较高, 一定程度上抵销了国内航线需求不足带来的负面影响 货运方面 : 由于外贸低迷, 国航 7 月货运周转量同比下降, 环比则有所上升, 运输量同比 环比均小幅下降 货运运力投入同比上升 1.1%, 为三大航中增幅最小的 货运载运率为 59.4%, 同比下降 1.5 个百分点 八月需求出现好转迹象 : 因天气情况好转,7 月延迟的散客游在 8 月份逐步释放,8 月至今国内航线景气度回暖, 需求增速及客座率明显回升, 票价水平虽下跌但跌幅收窄 国航拥有占比最多的国际航线及商务客流, 且公司运力增长在三大航中最为谨慎, 因而具有最大业绩向上弹性 预计下半年半年面临更多挑战 : 上半年票价水平明显下降严重削弱了航空公司的盈利能力, 所幸有人民币升值及油价下调等利好因素支撑, 预计上半年国航仍能实现账面盈利 7 月开始航油成本有上涨趋势, 人民币汇率则出现回调压力 因此, 尽管 8,9,10 月行业旺季和国际航线高景气度值得期待, 下半年航企仍面临更多挑战 估值 : 预计公司 2013,2014 年的每股盈利分别为人民币 0.384 和 0.496 元, 折合港币 HK$0.486,HK$0.63 整体思路上, 基于行業基本面有望將迎來阶段性改善和航空股目前较低的估值, 航空股短期存在估值修复机会, 因而给予公司 12 个月目标价为 5.83 港元, 对应 2013/2014 年预期市盈率 12/9.2 倍和预期市净率 1.07/0.83 倍, 增持 评级 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Phillip Securities Research 中國國航 Rating 2.00 增持 - Previous Rating 2.00 增持 Target Price (HKD) 5.83 - Previous Target Price (HKD) 6.65 Closing Price (HKD) 5.16 Expected Capital Gains (%) 13. Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.4% Expected Total Return (%) 14.4% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.16 Market Cap. (HKD bn) 65,979 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) 119,641 52 w eek range (HKD) 4.45-7.41 Closing Price in 52 w eek range 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 22- Key Financial Summary FYE 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F Revenue (RMB mn) 98,410 100,838 108,497 119,385 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 7,082 4,637 4,661 6,023 EPS, adj. (RMB) 0.58 0.38 0.38 0.50 P/E (X),adj. 7.2 10.9 10.6 8.2 BVPS (RMB) 3.79 4.09 4.29 4.56 P/B (X) 1.1 1.0 62.7 47.7 DPS (RMB) 0.12 0.06 0.07 0.09 Div. Yield (%) 2.8% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method PE & PB Analyst 22- Zhang Jing zhangjing@phillip.com.cn +86 63512937 22-Oct-12 22-22-Dec-12 22-22- 5 10 22-22-Apr-13 22-22-Jun-13 22- Volume, mn 753 hk equity HSI 22-Aug-13 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 of 1
七月国内需求低于预期中国国航 7 月旅客周转量 (RPK) 国内航线同比仅增长 4.7%, 增幅明显缩窄, 环比更是下滑近 5 个百分点, 主要由于国内宏观经济环境不佳情况下商务客流明显减少, 再加上天气原因取消了部分航班 因对旺季寄予较高期望, 国航国内航线 7 月客运运力 (ASK) 同比增长 8.7%, 远超需求增速, 客座率受拖累同比大幅下滑 3.1 个百分点至 81.4%, 票价亦出现大幅下滑 Fig 1. RPK growth of AC 35% 3 25% 15% 国际航线旺季成色明显国航 7 月份国际航线需求和供给均按年弹 15.5%, 反映居民出境游需求火爆 运营效率方面明显好于国内航线, 客座率基本持平, 为 83.5%, 特别欧洲航线由于去年低基数影响, 恢复强劲 国航欧美航线占比较高, 一定程度上抵销了国内航线需求不足带来的负面影响 Fig 4. Passenger Load Factor Comparison 90 85 80 75 70 AC CEA CSA 5% -5% 65 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Fig 2. ASK growth of AC 25% 15% 5% -5% Apr-12 Jun-12 Fig 3. Passenger Load Factor of AC 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 domestic international regional Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 2 of 2 货运方面由于外贸低迷, 国航 7 月货运周转量同比下降, 环比则有所上升, 运输量同比 环比均小幅下降 货运运力投入同比上升 1.1%, 为三大航中增幅最小的 货运载运率为 59.4%, 同比下降 1.5 个百分点 Fig 5. RFTK growth of AC 6 5 4 3 - -3-4 Apr-12 Jun-12 Fig 6. AFTK growth of AC 5 4 3 - -3 Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Apr-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13
八月需求出现好转迹象因天气情况好转,7 月延迟的散客游在 8 月份逐步释放,8 月至今国内航线景气度回暖, 需求增速及客座率明显回升, 票价水平虽下跌但跌幅收窄 国航拥有占比最多的国际航线及商务客流, 且公司运力增长在三大航中最为谨慎, 因而具有最大业绩向上弹性 预计下半年面临更多挑战上半年票价水平明显下降严重削弱了航空公司的盈利能力, 所幸有人民币升值及油价下调等利好因素支撑, 预计上半年国航仍能实现账面盈利 7 月开始航油成本有上涨趋势, 人民币汇率则出现回调压力 因此, 尽管 8,9,10 月行业旺季和国际航线高景气度值得期待, 下半年航企仍面临更多挑战 Fig 7. P/E Band Fig 9. Peer Comparison Mark Est Est P/E BEst EV/BEst ROA LF ROE Ticker Name Cap P/E (Y+1) EBITDA P/B % % HKD, Mil 753 HK AC 65979 10.1 8.5 7.3 1.1 2.6 9.6 293 HK CATHAY 54366 23.8 13.2 8.1 0.9 1.2 1.6 670 HK CEA 35890 7.5 6.5 7.3 1.0 2.5 13.7 1055 HK CSA 31774 7.9 7.1 6.8 0.7 1.9 8.1 LHA GR LUFTHANSA 68645 12.3 8.2 2.7 1.3 3.2 12.2 AF FP AIR FRANCE 19150 N/A 7.5 4.9 0.6-2.6-21.7 RYA ID RYANAIR 101048 15.2 12.9 8.4 3.1 6.0 17.3 IAG LN INTL CONSOLIDA 69758 28.0 11.0 4.7 3.2-5.7-18.6 EZJ LN EASYJET 61410 14.1 12.6 7.6 3.1 6.7 14.6 9202 JP ANA 56994 17.5 14.8 5.0 1.0 1.7 6.6 003490 KS KOREAN AIR 14215 N/A 111.0 8.8 0.7 1.1 9.8 SIA SP SIA 69265 19.6 15.2 3.1 0.9 1.9 2.9 DAL US DELTA 130152 7.0 6.6 5.2 N/A 3.9 N/A UAL US UC 82063 9.7 6.6 4.4 8.7-1.5-63.2 LUV US SOUTHWEST 71477 13.7 11.3 4.2 1.4 2.0 6.1 Average 62146 14.3 16.9 5.9 2.0 1.7 Data Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities -0.1 Data Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Fig 8. P/B Band 风险因素经济衰退深化导致航空需求大幅下降 ; 油价飙升 ; 人民币大幅贬值导致汇兑损失 ; 行业内发生非理性价格战 ; 战争 恐怖事件 流行性疾病等突发事件 ; 高铁的冲击 Data Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities 估值预计公司 2013,2014 年的每股盈利分别为人民币 0.384 和 0.496 元, 折合港币 HK$0.486,HK$0.63 整体思路上, 基于行業基本面有望將迎來阶段性改善和航空股目前较低的估值, 航空股短期存在估值修复机会, 因而给予公司 12 个月目标价为 5.83 港元, 对应 2013/2014 年预期市盈率 12/9.2 倍和预期市净率 1.07/0.83 倍, 增持 评级 3 of 3
FYE DEC FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj. 4.1 7.2 10.9 10.6 8.2 P/B (X) 1.2 1.1 1.0 62.7 47.7 Dividend Yield (%) 2.9% 2.8% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% Per share data (RMB) EPS, reported 1.031 0.582 0.382 0.384 0.496 EPS, adj. 1.031 0.582 0.382 0.384 0.496 DPS 0.12 0.118 0.059 0.065 0.085 BVPS 3.56 3.79 4.09 4.23 4.56 Growth & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue 60.5% 19.3% 2.5% 7.6% 10. EBIT 133.5% -47. 13.5% -4.7% 35.4% Net Income, adj. 147.3% -41. -34.5% 0.5% 29.2% Margins EBIT margin 17.3% 7.7% 8.5% 7.6% 9.3% Net Profit Margin 14.6% 7.2% 4.6% 4.3% 5. Key Ratios ROE (%) 36.74% 16.18% 9.68% 9.23% 11.29% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue 82,488 98,410 100,838 108,497 119,385 Operating expenses (71,560) (92,151) (92,629) (101,063) (109,371) -Jet fuel cost (24,096) (34,703) (35,638) (37,028) (39,006) Profit from operations 10,928 6,259 8,209 7,434 10,014 Financial costs 531 1,767 (2,036) (2,098) (2,681) Share of profits and losses of associates 3,375 1,329 403 772 1,093 Profit before tax 14,834 9,355 6,576 6,108 8,426 Tax (2,498) (2,292) (1,648) (1,527) (2,106) Profit for the period 12,336 7,063 4,928 4,581 6,319 Minority interests 331 (20) 291 (80) 296 Net profit 12,005 7,082 4,637 4,661 6,023 Source: PSR 4 of 4
Ratings History 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 Market Price Target Price Source: Bloomberg, PSR 1 2 3 4 5 Nov-08 Aug-08 May-08 Aug-09 May-09 Feb-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Nov-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Aug-13 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > + Buy 1 +5% to + Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to - Reduce 4 <- Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation 5 of 5
吉利汽车 (175.HK) PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+ Buy 1 > upside from the current price +5% to + Accumulate 2 +5% to +upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to - Reduce 4-5% to - downside from the current price <- Sell 5 >downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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