19 ** ** ** ** ** ** **** ** ** **** ** ** ** **
19 2002 12 12 2003 2002 4 3.6% 2.5% 2001 1.1% 2002 1.7% 2002 2.3% 2.6% 1.1 2002 0.8% 1.6% 1.7 2002 0.8% 0.9 19.1 (economic growth) 1
19.1 1. ( ) 81 7.49 3 0.9 2.2 1.3 0.2 4.3 5.4 6.5 6.6 14.2 82 7.01 2.7 0.4-1.2-0.9 2.5-0.9 5.5 12.7 6.3 13.5 83 7.11 4 1 2.4 1.9 4.7 2.2 8.3 11.4 5.5 12.6 84 6.42 2.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.9 2.9 8.9 8 3.9 10.5 85 6.1 3.6 3.5 0.8 1.1 2.6 1.1 6.8 7.7 4.3 9.6 86 6.68 4.4 1.8 1.4 1.9 3.4 2 5 8.5 5.1 8.8 87 4.57 4.3-1.1 2 3.5 2.9 1.8-6.7-0.1-5 7.8 88 5.42 4.1 0.7 2 3.2 2.4 1.6 10.9 6.9 3.4 7.1 89 5.86 3.8 2.4 2.9 4.2 3.1 2.9 9.3 10.3 10.2 8 OECD 2.1990 19.1 1.3 1 20 60 1998 2000 2
2001 0.91-2.35-4.21-1.87-2.18 70 CPI 0.01 GNP 9 7,397 1 2,941 1996 1 3,260 19.2 2000 2002 19-1 19.2 2000 2002 指標經濟民間政府固定資本形 年別成長率消費消費成輸出輸入 CPI 失業率 2000 年 5.86 5.6 1.9 1.4 17.3 14.9 1.3 3 2001 年 2.18 1 1.0 20.6 7.8 13.9 0.01 4.6 2002 年 3.14 2.2 1.8 1.8 8.1 6.5 0.31 1. 2. 2002 單位 :% 2002 8 19-1 3
19.2 19.1 Modern Economic Growth Theory (Initial Income Level) Particular Characteristics 4
Robert M. Solow (spillover effect) 5
BOX (multifactor productivity M.F.P.) ( ) (GDP); (total output) : ( ) ; ( ) ; ( ) ; ( ) ; ( ) ; ( )? 89 6
項目別八十九年與上年比較說明 ( 基期 : 八十五 =100) 工業及服務業 105.89 1.04 多因素生產力係指實質國內生多因工業 99.82-0.11 產毛額, 相對於就業者工時及實素生製造業 97.56 0.20 質固定資本存量兩項生產因素產力服務業 112.37 2.68 之比率 固定 工業及服務業 91.55-2.85 固定資本生產力係指實質國內 資本 工業 81.79-5.60 生產毛額, 相對於實質固定資本 生產 製造業 79.90-6.08 存量淨額之比率 力 服務業 102.26 0.57 工業及服務業 120.48 4.49 勞動生產力係指實質國內生產 勞動工業 117.46 4.21 毛額, 相對於就業者工時之比生產率 製造業力 116.21 5.37 服務業 122.59 4.67 (%) 工業及服務業 技術 -0.67-0.71 進步 工業 -2.08-1.46 八十九年年增率八十八年年增率 率 製造業 -0.10 0.56 服務業 1.84 0.55 資料來源 : 行政院主計處 (http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/census~n/five/mfp89.doc) 技術進步率係指生產總值成長率扣除加權後就業者工時 實質固定資本存量 能源投入值 原材料投入及企業服務投入值成長率之餘額 Adam Smith Robert M. Solow 7
1990 1971 Simon Kuznets Simon Kuznets 1. 2. 3. Simon Kuznets 1991 Lucas Y = F( K, L, N; A) (19.1) K L N A ( ) Capital Stock 8
1. 2. 3. 1 1 n --(K11, K12, K13 K1n) m n m (K1, K2,, Kn) (present value) X t A X =A/(1+r)t r n A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 A X = + A + A 1 2 3 4 5 ( 1+ r) 2 (1 + r) 3 (1 + r) 4 (1 + r) (1 + r + A + A ) (homogeneous) L=aP L P 5 9
( ) ( ) ( ) (research and development, R&D) 19-2 10
19.3 (Malthus) Essay on the Principle of Population,1798 (the Dismal Science) (iron law of wage) * W * W N N = g( W ) > 0 (19.2) W = h(n), h ( N) < 0 (19.3) P * W 19-3 N 0 * N W = g( W ) > 0 N * W 11
19-3 12
BOX 73 90 2.1 1.55 2.1 3 3 3 1/3 1/4 90 3.67 4.89 100 5.77 7.07 20 30 127 13
19.4 (Harrod-Domar Model) Harrod Domar 1940 Harrod Domar Harrod-Domar Model 1. (S) (Y) S = sy (19.4) 2. (K) I= K (19.5) 3. ( ) 4. (K) (Y) K/Y=k (19.6) K/ Y= k 5. (Leontief production function) 14
K N Y = min{, }, k>0, b>0 (19.7) k b a b 6. S=I (19.8) K Y = k dy 1 dk = = 1 I (19.9) dt a dt k (19.4) S=sY=I dy 1 di = (19.10) dt s dt (19.9) (19.10) dy I 1 di = = (19.11) dt k s dt s k ( ) 1 Y dy dt = 1 sy d( sy ) dt = 1 S ds dt 1 = I di dt = s k s k s s k k (warranted rate of growth) Y Y = b 1 dy dn = 1 = n Y dt N dt n n (natural rate of growth) (efficiency labor) n + λ 1 Y dy dt = n + λ (19.13) 15
Harrod-Domar Model Harrod-Domar Model (Knife-Edge) 19.5 Neoclassical Growth Model Harrod Domar Robert M. Solow Harrod Domar neoclassical growth model 16
Harrod-Domar Model 1987 Harrod-Domar Model C-D Harrod-Domar Model Y = F( N, K) Y k y = = F(,1) = f ( k) (19.14) N N y k f > 0, f < 0 ( ) ln k = ln K ln N 17
1 k dk dt 1 dk 1 dn = (19.15) K dt N dt 1 dk dn = 1 = n K dt N dt (19.16) (I=S) 1 K dk dt = I = S = sy (19.17) (19.16) (19.17) 1 K dk dt = S K = sy K = sy k 1 = N dn dt = n (19.18) (19.18) n y = k (19.19) s 19-4 n * 19-4 y = f ( k) = k k s * y Y=C+I=C+S * * * * * c = y s = y sy = (1 s)y * (19.20) n k1 f ( k) > k s 18
sf ( k) S I 1 dk n < = = = (19.21) k K K K dt * k k 1 Y dy dt = T + dk a K + b dn N (19.22) T T (19.22) 19.6 Endogenous Growth Theory 80 Romer Lucas 19
OECD Romer Lucas Romer spillover effect Lucas Lucas Lucas Romer endogenous growth theory R&D Lucas Rebelo Romer Aghion Howitt 20
Y F K, hl Y K h L 1. 2. Y Y 3 E 3 F 3 (K 3, h 3 L) F 2 (K 2, h 2 L) Y 2 E 2 F 1 (K 1, h 1 L) Y 1 E 1 0 K 1 K 2 K3 K 19-5 19-5 h1 h2 h3 K1 K2 K3 Y1 Y2 Y3 F1 F2 F3 K1 K2 K3 Y1 Y2 Y3 0Y1>Y1Y2>Y2Y3 21
BOX 200 OECD TU e 22
TU Q MU TU e TU 0 Q MU 0 Q 19-6 BOX 193 23
19.7 Rostow Rostow Rostow Rostow 19.8 24
(immiserizing growth) (immiserizing growth) 1. 2. 3. 1973-74 1979-80 1985-86 1970 197 6% 1. 2. 25
3. 4. BOX IQ 207 26
BOX 1985 $275 (extreme poverty) $370 1985 1990 1994 1995 31% (9%?) A B 27