2 2014 3 211 985 2009 211 mismatch 1 1. Kuhn and Shen 2013 2 211 985 Bj rklund and Salvanes 2011 211 985 2000 2010 17% 3 211 26 11 9 1 1 A1 4 Arrow 19

2014 3 World Economic Papers June, 2014 16 * 211 985 16 211 985 211 211 985 1 078 57. 5% 92. 3% 1 64. 3% 63. 3% 62. 5% 37. 4% 23. 9% 14. 3% 52. 3% 23. 1% * E-mail wangjunhui_wise@ 163. com 4 232 550025 E-mail fushihe@ xmu. edu. cn 361005 E-mail yh20@ cornell. edu 361005 2012 1 74. 9% 2011 6 14

2 2014 3 211 985 2009 211 mismatch 1 1. Kuhn and Shen 2013 2 211 985 Bj rklund and Salvanes 2011 211 985 2000 2010 17% 3 211 26 11 9 1 1 A1 4 Arrow 1971 211 1 2 3 4 211 http / /www. ilo. org /dyn /normlex /en /f p = 1000 12100 0 NO P12100_INSTRUMENT_ID 312256 http / /edu. sina. com. cn /gaokao /2011-08-06 /1118309006. shtml 2012 18. 18% 12. 12% 27. 8% 28. 36% http / /www. jyb. cn /gk /gksx /201207 /t20120730_504619. html

2014 3 3 211 985 1 2. 211 211 211 211 211 211 2 Carson and Navarro 1988 3. 2011 4. 211 1 2 http / /edu. people. com. cn /GB /17349722. html http / /www. chinajilin. com. cn /2011zhuanti /content /2011-03 /09 /content_2196749. htm 211

4 2014 3 211 985 Altonji and Pierret 2001 16 21 CSSCI SSCI 211 985 211 985 985 211 985 985 211 985 211 985

2014 3 5 1 211 Card and Krueger 1992 Card and Krueger 1996 Bedard 2003 Dustmann et al. 2012 1987 middle school secondary education Long 2008 2010 Zhong 2011 CHIPS 2002 Hartog et al. 2010 2004 Li et al. 2012 10. 7% Carson and Navarro 1988 1985 1986 60% 20 70% Barbezat 1992 1988 1989 1989 46 1 Holmstrom 1979

6 2014 3 15 Siegfried and Stock 1999 1977 1986 /1987 1996 Stock and Alston 2000 Chen and Mckinnish 2005 Grove and Wu 2007 1989 5 17 2009 16 2011 1 257 1980 1 036 1 1

2014 3 7 CNKI SSCI CSSCI A CSSCI CSSCI 1 CSSCI 1998 2011 CSSCI 1998 1998 CSSCI SSCI SCI EI EI 1980 211 2011 3 31 211 112 A1 985 39 985 211 A2 985 985 211 211 985 211 905 2011 211 985 2 2011 1 50 51 100 1 2 A A http / /www. shanghairanking. cn /ARWU2011. html

8 2014 3 101 200 201 300 301 400 401 500 500 985 500 985 211 1 1 29% 55% 87% 26% 28% 63% 985 73% 211 27% 211 58% 28% 11% 1 1 036 0. 292 0. 455 0 1 1 036 0. 546 0. 498 0 1 1 036 2001 7 1981 2012 1 036 5. 084 1. 967 1 9 1 036 0. 874 0. 333 0 1 1 036 0. 255 0. 436 0 1 1 036 0. 281 0. 450 0 1 211 1 036 0. 732 0. 443 0 1 985 1 036 0. 629 0. 483 0 1 211 985 1 036 0. 102 0. 303 0 1 1 036 0. 580 0. 494 0 1 1 036 0. 278 0. 448 0 1 1 036 0. 105 0. 307 0 1 1

2014 3 9 1 036 0. 037 0. 188 0 1 / 1 036 6. 277 9. 086 0 83. 5 A / 1 036 0. 761 2. 116 0 23. 5 / 1 036 0. 368 1. 951 0 50 / 1 036 0. 473 0. 571 0 5. 044 A / 1 036 0. 061 0. 148 0 1. 281 / 1 036 0. 043 0. 159 0 2. 071 / 1 036 0. 412 0. 868 0 7 / 1 036 0. 359 0. 848 0 8 / 1 036 0. 771 1. 301 0 13 6. 3 A 0. 8 0. 4 202 19% 148 2000 120 59% 3 2. 5 1 211 985 211 211 211 A 211 211 1 211 211 211 1980 30 1980 1990 2000 A3 20 2000 211 985 211 985 211 985

10 2014 3 1 t p 0. 37 A 0. 03 0. 01 0. 87 211 985 Y ij = α j + β 1 BA211 + β 2 BA985 + δx i + ε ij 1 Y ij j i A BA211 BA985 BA211 1 985 211 BA985 1 985 α j X ε ij 1 self-selection sorting 211 BA211 BA985 BA211 BA985 0 Altonji et al. 2005 Dale and Krueger 2002 perfect sorting 1

2014 3 11 cluster 211 985 211 985 BA211 BA985 211 985 BA211 0. 06-0. 01-0. 03 0. 01 BA985 0. 07-0. 001 0. 18-0. 26 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 1980 1990 1980 2000 2000 1 985 211 BA211 985 BA985 2 2 A BA211 1 2 1990 2000 4 5 7 8 211 BA985 A 985 211 985 3 6 9 3 6 9 211

12 2014 3 0. 2 0. 3 1. 13 985 0. 1 3 6 9 211 985 R 2 0 BA211 BA985 211 985 211 985 2 > 1980 > 1990 > 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A A A BA211 0. 024 0. 016 0. 051 * 0. 024 0. 009 0. 053 * - 0. 066 0. 006 0. 062 0. 074 0. 015 0. 025 0. 081 0. 017 0. 026 0. 054 0. 018 0. 039 BA985-0. 111 * 0. 022 0. 040 ** - 0. 113 0. 018 0. 040 ** - 0. 149 ** 0. 022 0. 049 ** 0. 062 0. 015 0. 018 0. 067 0. 014 0. 017 0. 070 0. 015 0. 020 1 036 1 036 1 036 929 929 929 649 649 649 R 2 0. 010 0. 004 0. 014 0. 011 0. 003 0. 015 0. 017 0. 005 0. 017 BA211 0. 328-0. 012 0. 200 ** 0. 328-0. 012 0. 200 ** 0. 018 0. 000 0. 273 ** 0. 236 0. 019 0. 079 0. 236 0. 019 0. 079 0. 091 0. 007 0. 108 BA985 0. 030 0. 031 0. 087 ** 0. 018 0. 029 0. 081 ** 0. 067 0. 049 ** 0. 092 ** 0. 053 0. 024 0. 037 0. 054 0. 021 0. 033 0. 081 0. 022 0. 037 264 264 264 252 252 252 187 187 187 R 2 0. 031 0. 009 0. 032 0. 034 0. 009 0. 038 0. 006 0. 023 0. 056 BA211-0. 021 0. 024 0. 006-0. 027 0. 017 0. 006-0. 041 0. 013-0. 002 0. 045 0. 016 0. 005 0. 052 0. 018 0. 005 0. 068 0. 023 0. 006 BA985-0. 081 0. 019 0. 009-0. 076 0. 015 0. 010-0. 115 0. 024 0. 012 0. 062 0. 015 0. 006 0. 066 0. 013 0. 007 0. 068 0. 017 0. 008 772 772 772 677 677 677 462 462 462 R 2 0. 004 0. 004 0. 002 0. 004 0. 003 0. 002 0. 010 0. 005 0. 004 BA211 1 985 211 BA985 1 985 *** ** * 1% 5% 10%

2014 3 13 2 3 = 1 3 > 1980 > 1990 > 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A A A BA211 0. 039 0. 009 0. 040 * 0. 051 0. 009 0. 045 * - 0. 019 0. 015 0. 060 0. 066 0. 014 0. 021 0. 075 0. 016 0. 022 0. 061 0. 020 0. 035 BA985-0. 081 0. 010 0. 026-0. 069 0. 010 0. 027 * - 0. 065 0. 020 0. 032 * 0. 063 0. 010 0. 015 0. 071 0. 010 0. 014 0. 063 0. 012 0. 017-0. 240 *** - 0. 044 *** - 0. 013-0. 225 *** - 0. 044 *** - 0. 014-0. 177 *** - 0. 043 ** - 0. 019 0. 023 0. 012 0. 008 0. 023 0. 012 0. 008 0. 026 0. 015 0. 011-0. 165 ** - 0. 055 *** - 0. 023 ** - 0. 140 ** - 0. 050 *** - 0. 027 * - 0. 197 *** - 0. 057 *** - 0. 032 * 0. 057 0. 013 0. 011 0. 053 0. 010 0. 013 0. 036 0. 014 0. 018-0. 325 *** - 0. 081 *** 0. 046 ** - 0. 281 *** - 0. 075 *** 0. 040 ** - 0. 341 *** - 0. 105 *** 0. 039 0. 073 0. 018 0. 019 0. 064 0. 016 0. 018 0. 067 0. 020 0. 024 0. 040-0. 005 0. 011 0. 040-0. 009 0. 013-0. 002-0. 019 0. 016 0. 059 0. 015 0. 008 0. 061 0. 014 0. 009 0. 068 0. 014 0. 013 0. 206 *** 0. 040 *** 0. 017 * 0. 306 *** 0. 033 *** 0. 014 0. 366 *** 0. 021 ** 0. 001 0. 062 0. 009 0. 009 0. 098 0. 009 0. 012 0. 063 0. 008 0. 012 0. 007-0. 004-0. 006 0. 020-0. 004-0. 005 0. 021 ** - 0. 006-0. 004 0. 014 0. 004 0. 004 0. 014 0. 004 0. 004 0. 009 0. 004 0. 005 0. 140 *** 0. 014-0. 011 0. 125 *** 0. 011-0. 012 0. 178 *** 0. 015-0. 015 0. 037 0. 017 0. 017 0. 042 0. 020 0. 017 0. 043 0. 017 0. 026 0. 049 0. 018 0. 015 0. 053 0. 018 0. 013 0. 094 *** 0. 015-0. 001 0. 049 0. 017 0. 019 0. 047 0. 017 0. 019 0. 032 0. 018 0. 030 1 036 1 036 1 036 929 929 929 649 649 649 R 2 0. 169 0. 183 0. 198 0. 166 0. 172 0. 193 0. 194 0. 197 0. 181

14 2014 3 > 1980 > 1990 > 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A A A BA211 0. 382 0. 017 0. 211 ** 0. 381 0. 021 0. 228 ** 0. 103 0. 023 0. 297 ** 0. 239 0. 030 0. 087 0. 243 0. 032 0. 087 0. 131 0. 027 0. 122 BA985 0. 044 0. 030 0. 089 * 0. 041 0. 032 0. 091 ** 0. 074 0. 029 0. 117 ** 0. 075 0. 030 0. 046 0. 083 0. 032 0. 040 0. 123 0. 030 0. 050-0. 115 * - 0. 021-0. 064 ** - 0. 108-0. 020-0. 056 ** - 0. 023-0. 001-0. 074 ** 0. 063 0. 014 0. 026 0. 065 0. 015 0. 026 0. 060 0. 018 0. 028-0. 112 0. 048 *** 0. 054 0. 186 0. 079 *** 0. 077 0. 048 0. 040 ** 0. 118 0. 117 0. 014 0. 052 0. 162 0. 026 0. 118 0. 086 0. 014 0. 172 0. 008 0. 000-0. 003 0. 008 0. 000 0. 002 0. 004 0. 001 0. 003 0. 017 0. 003 0. 007 0. 018 0. 004 0. 006 0. 013 0. 004 0. 011-0. 017-0. 009-0. 056-0. 048-0. 029-0. 063 0. 002-0. 012-0. 096 0. 146 0. 037 0. 089 0. 161 0. 040 0. 093 0. 088 0. 017 0. 158 0. 060 0. 018-0. 027 0. 018-0. 012-0. 051 0. 042 0. 003-0. 117 0. 104 0. 041 0. 084 0. 109 0. 033 0. 094 0. 058 0. 020 0. 169 264 264 264 252 252 252 187 187 187 R 2 0. 232 0. 303 0. 195 0. 238 0. 301 0. 194 0. 273 0. 389 0. 192 BA211-0. 039 0. 011 0. 006-0. 029 0. 013 0. 008-0. 011 0. 023 0. 003 0. 053 0. 015 0. 006 0. 059 0. 017 0. 007 0. 072 0. 026 0. 006 BA985-0. 091 0. 005 0. 013 * - 0. 074 0. 006 0. 015-0. 075 0. 022 0. 019 0. 067 0. 011 0. 007 0. 074 0. 010 0. 009 0. 068 0. 015 0. 011-0. 266 *** - 0. 048 *** - 0. 003-0. 253 *** - 0. 050 *** - 0. 004-0. 221 *** - 0. 058 ** - 0. 003 0. 027 0. 015 0. 004 0. 029 0. 015 0. 005 0. 036 0. 022 0. 007-0. 187 ** - 0. 059 *** - 0. 024 ** - 0. 154 ** - 0. 054 *** - 0. 029 * - 0. 214 *** - 0. 064 *** - 0. 032 0. 068 0. 014 0. 011 0. 063 0. 011 0. 014 0. 045 0. 014 0. 018 0. 044-0. 007 0. 008 0. 047-0. 010 0. 010 0. 015-0. 017 0. 015 0. 057 0. 015 0. 007 0. 060 0. 014 0. 009 0. 068 0. 014 0. 013 0. 243 *** 0. 037 *** 0. 008 *** 0. 341 *** 0. 028 *** 0. 008 ** 0. 390 *** 0. 023 ** 0. 005 0. 069 0. 010 0. 002 0. 106 0. 008 0. 003 0. 086 0. 008 0. 005 0. 012-0. 010-0. 005 0. 045 ** - 0. 010-0. 006 0. 049 ** - 0. 016-0. 010 0. 020 0. 009 0. 004 0. 017 0. 008 0. 005 0. 019 0. 010 0. 007

2014 3 15 > 1980 > 1990 > 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A A A 0. 172 *** 0. 021 0. 000 0. 156 *** 0. 020-0. 002 0. 211 *** 0. 018-0. 004 0. 032 0. 019 0. 006 0. 036 0. 020 0. 008 0. 043 0. 021 0. 010 0. 012 0. 016 0. 023 ** 0. 029 0. 022 0. 023 ** 0. 080 * 0. 016 0. 024 * 0. 047 0. 018 0. 010 0. 053 0. 018 0. 010 0. 042 0. 022 0. 013 772 772 772 677 677 677 462 462 462 R 2 0. 153 0. 167 0. 097 0. 138 0. 157 0. 103 0. 161 0. 194 0. 080 BA211 1 985 211 BA985 1 985 *** ** * 1% 5% 10% 3 Barbezat 1992 A A BA211 BA985 3 BA211 BA985 2 211 985 211 985 BA211 BA985 0. 2 0. 3 0. 1 BA211 BA985 2 211 985 211 985

16 2014 3 3 BA211 BA985 2 211 211 3 BA211 BA985 2 1 BA211 BA985 BA211 BA985 3 BA211 BA985 3 BA211 BA985 3 3 3 211 985 3 3 1 4 211 985 BA211 BA985 211 985 4 0. 05 0. 35 5% 4 2000 1 1991 1986 5 1991 1995 1996 2000 2001 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012

2014 3 17 4 > 1980 > 1990 > 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 BA211-0. 060 0. 067-0. 031-0. 078-0. 015-0. 122-0. 027 0. 030-0. 013 0. 086 0. 073 0. 116 0. 071 0. 051 0. 090 0. 058 0. 051 0. 069 BA985-0. 042 0. 030-0. 030-0. 058 0. 025-0. 057-0. 016 0. 033 0. 013 0. 044 0. 036 0. 067 0. 051 0. 036 0. 068 0. 035 0. 022 0. 051-0. 069 ** - 0. 059 ** - 0. 125 *** - 0. 065 * - 0. 067 ** - 0. 128 ** - 0. 022-0. 042-0. 073 0. 031 0. 020 0. 038 0. 033 0. 023 0. 044 0. 041 0. 029 0. 062-0. 058-0. 171 ** - 0. 208 ** - 0. 073-0. 164 ** - 0. 188 ** - 0. 001-0. 103 * - 0. 083 0. 034 0. 067 0. 081 0. 045 0. 063 0. 075 0. 060 0. 051 0. 063-0. 026-0. 082-0. 054-0. 018-0. 082 * - 0. 034-0. 091 ** - 0. 029-0. 120 ** 0. 064 0. 051 0. 080 0. 065 0. 044 0. 071 0. 032 0. 039 0. 048 0. 045 0. 080 ** 0. 096 * 0. 045 0. 075 * 0. 082-0. 052 0. 023-0. 056 0. 038 0. 033 0. 051 0. 053 0. 036 0. 063 0. 054 0. 037 0. 068 0. 101 * 0. 169 *** 0. 242 ** - 0. 033 0. 128 ** 0. 036 0. 037-0. 035-0. 050 0. 058 0. 049 0. 098 0. 104 0. 060 0. 113 0. 033 0. 029 0. 044-0. 002 0. 021 0. 024-0. 007 0. 006 0. 004-0. 001 0. 007 0. 008 0. 011 0. 014 0. 020 0. 012 0. 010 0. 017 0. 011 0. 007 0. 015 0. 012 0. 056 0. 044 0. 034 0. 048 0. 045 0. 014 0. 065 ** 0. 038 0. 047 0. 050 0. 071 0. 065 0. 041 0. 077 0. 044 0. 027 0. 067-0. 028 0. 087 0. 057 0. 001 0. 078 0. 049 0. 025 0. 098 ** 0. 089 * 0. 049 0. 054 0. 070 0. 050 0. 048 0. 065 0. 032 0. 037 0. 045 0. 019 *** 0. 012 *** 0. 025 *** 0. 021 *** 0. 012 *** 0. 027 *** 0. 004 0. 011 ** 0. 009 0. 003 0. 003 0. 004 0. 004 0. 003 0. 005 0. 003 0. 005 0. 006 1 036 1 036 1 036 929 929 929 649 649 649 R 2 0. 574 0. 590 0. 528 0. 564 0. 598 0. 534 0. 707 0. 707 0. 694 BA211-0. 202-0. 110-0. 222-0. 204-0. 118-0. 237 0. 000-0. 097-0. 045 0. 199 0. 080 0. 211 0. 198 0. 069 0. 195 0. 000 0. 083 0. 055 BA985-0. 131-0. 012-0. 066-0. 127-0. 018-0. 071-0. 000 * 0. 005 0. 058 0. 188 0. 059 0. 218 0. 186 0. 046 0. 198 0. 000 0. 064 0. 053-0. 065-0. 059-0. 131 ** - 0. 062-0. 064 * - 0. 131 ** 0. 000 * - 0. 036-0. 044 0. 050 0. 036 0. 060 0. 049 0. 034 0. 059 0. 000 0. 051 0. 046 0. 213 ** 0. 346 * 0. 611 * 0. 228 *** - 0. 043 0. 100-0. 000-0. 012-0. 043 0. 088 0. 191 0. 328 0. 070 0. 048 0. 070 0. 000 0. 028 0. 039

18 2014 3 > 1980 > 1990 > 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-0. 022 0. 017-0. 012-0. 022 0. 006-0. 024 0. 000 * 0. 003 0. 001 0. 016 0. 020 0. 036 0. 017 0. 011 0. 032 0. 000 0. 013 0. 012 0. 131 0. 186 *** 0. 198 0. 117 0. 098 *** 0. 093 0. 000 ** 0. 024-0. 002 0. 136 0. 058 0. 141 0. 130 0. 033 0. 085 0. 000 0. 049 0. 050 0. 102 0. 242 *** 0. 209 ** 0. 100 0. 143 ** 0. 099 0. 000 ** 0. 082 0. 035 0. 082 0. 068 0. 081 0. 080 0. 057 0. 076 0. 000 0. 056 0. 059 0. 014 0. 006 0. 017 ** 0. 016 0. 008 * 0. 020 ** - 0. 000 0. 007 0. 006 0. 009 0. 006 0. 007 0. 009 0. 004 0. 008 0. 000 0. 010 0. 012 264 264 264 252 252 252 187 187 187 R 2 0. 493 0. 700 0. 655 0. 492 0. 708 0. 659 1. 000 0. 738 0. 745 BA211-0. 035 0. 105-0. 001-0. 050 0. 009-0. 101-0. 030 0. 068 0. 006 0. 094 0. 089 0. 128 0. 076 0. 064 0. 100 0. 071 0. 076 0. 086 BA985-0. 028 0. 039-0. 020-0. 049 0. 041-0. 050-0. 024 0. 041 0. 001 0. 032 0. 038 0. 057 0. 049 0. 045 0. 074 0. 045 0. 030 0. 066-0. 081 ** - 0. 062 ** - 0. 129 ** - 0. 074 * - 0. 066 ** - 0. 129 ** - 0. 028-0. 037-0. 078 0. 037 0. 022 0. 046 0. 040 0. 025 0. 055 0. 060 0. 031 0. 084-0. 057-0. 199 ** - 0. 209 ** - 0. 085-0. 190 *** - 0. 200 ** - 0. 007-0. 124 ** - 0. 100 0. 039 0. 072 0. 087 0. 054 0. 064 0. 087 0. 064 0. 054 0. 064 0. 037 0. 082 ** 0. 102 0. 033 0. 078 * 0. 079-0. 067 0. 035-0. 063 0. 043 0. 036 0. 062 0. 057 0. 039 0. 072 0. 061 0. 040 0. 071 0. 096 0. 154 ** 0. 225 * - 0. 054 0. 157 ** 0. 031 0. 026-0. 034-0. 064 0. 068 0. 054 0. 107 0. 105 0. 067 0. 127 0. 042 0. 032 0. 057 0. 018 0. 031 * 0. 052 * 0. 013 0. 013 0. 026 0. 013 0. 013 0. 029 0. 020 0. 016 0. 027 0. 025 0. 018 0. 031 0. 021 0. 014 0. 025-0. 010 0. 036 0. 008 0. 014 0. 048 0. 020 0. 017 0. 081 ** 0. 051 0. 045 0. 054 0. 069 0. 071 0. 052 0. 082 0. 059 0. 035 0. 088-0. 039 0. 066 0. 009-0. 010 0. 080 0. 021 0. 040 0. 111 ** 0. 103 * 0. 060 0. 066 0. 079 0. 063 0. 070 0. 081 0. 039 0. 051 0. 053 0. 020 *** 0. 012 *** 0. 027 *** 0. 023 *** 0. 012 *** 0. 029 *** 0. 006 0. 011 * 0. 012 0. 005 0. 003 0. 007 0. 006 0. 004 0. 008 0. 004 0. 006 0. 008 772 772 772 677 677 677 462 462 462 R 2 0. 579 0. 575 0. 520 0. 569 0. 577 0. 523 0. 694 0. 701 0. 693 BA211 1 985 211 BA985 1 985 *** ** * 1% 5% 10%

2014 3 19 2000 1 211 211 985 2 2% A 2% BA211 BA985 211 985 26. 9% 23% 211 211 122 49 12 11 10 CCER 0 3% 2% 8% 9% 6 9 567 9 3. 7% 9 9 1 2 CCER CCER 1994 1996 1997 2001 2002 2000 2000 1997 2000

20 2014 3 BA211 BA985 BA211 BA985 211 985 2012 2012 2 4 3 4 211 985 A seemingly unrelated regression SUR A A 2 2 0. 6 0. 4 211 985 1 211 985 1 2012 211 39 211 73 985

2014 3 21 211 211 500 A 2000 211 985 211 985 211 985 BA211 BA985 Probit 5 1 211 985 211 985 0. 11 0. 19 2 Probit BA211 BA985 3 0. 32 11% 0. 58 5% 3 985 0. 1 4 1 5 211 985 1 2 3 4 BA211 0. 113 * 0. 318 0. 038 0. 078 0. 061 0. 199 0. 068 0. 175 BA985 0. 185 *** 0. 582 ** 0. 097 * 0. 204 0. 030 0. 149 0. 053 0. 139-0. 034-0. 062-0. 003 0. 000 0. 029 0. 103 0. 039 0. 104 0. 032 0. 170-0. 055-0. 122 0. 048 0. 167 0. 062 0. 159 0. 046 0. 189-0. 102-0. 261 0. 053 0. 174 0. 063 0. 166 R 2 0. 036 0. 014 1 036 1 013 751 751 Probit 0 1 BA211 1 985 211 BA985 1 985 2 4 *** ** * 1% 5% 10%

22 2014 3 1 16 211 985 211 985 211 985 211 985 A1 211 2011 3 31 1

2014 3 23 http / /edu. sina. com. cn /gaokao /2011-03-31 /1515290772. shtml A2 985 2011 3 31 34 5 http / /edu. sina. com. cn /gaokao /2011-03-31 /1515290772. shtml

24 2014 3 A3 2000 1990 1999 1980 1989 0. 34 0. 21 0. 23 0. 51 0. 58 0. 67 4. 84 5. 35 5. 87 0. 97 0. 88 0. 24 0. 29 0. 23 0. 11 0. 53 0. 60 0. 37 211 0. 72 0. 75 0. 74 985 0. 61 0. 65 0. 69 0. 28 0. 69 0. 46 0. 31 0. 48 0. 33 0. 59 1. 17 0. 79 0. 42 0. 61 0. 47 A 0. 06 0. 06 0. 06 0. 05 0. 03 0. 03 649 280 107 Altonji J. G. and C. R. Pierret 2001 Employer Learning and Statistical Discrimination Quarterly Journal of Economics 116 1 313-350. Altonji J. E. E. Todd and C. R. Tabor 2005 Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools Journal of Political Economy 113 151-184. Arrow K. 1971 The Theory of Discrimination Princeton University Working Paper No. 403. Barbezat D. 1992 The Market for New Ph. D. Economists The Journal of Economic Education 23 3 262-276. Bedard K. 2003 School Quality and the Distribution of Male Earnings in Canada Economics of Education Review 22 395-407. Bj rklund A. and K. Salvanes 2011 Education and Family Background Mechanisms and Policies in E. Hanushek et al. eds Handbook of the Economics of Education Amsterdam Elsevier 201-243. Card D. and A. Krueger 1992 Does School Quality Matter Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States Journal of Political Economy 100 1-40. Card D. and A. Krueger 1996 Labor Market Effects of School Quality Theory and Evidence Working Paper. Carson R. and P. Nararro 1988 A Seller's and Buyer's Guide to the Job Market for Beginning Academic Economists Journal of Economic Perspectives 2 2 137-148. Chen Y. and T. Mckinnish 2005 Do Economics Departments Search Optimally in Faculty Recruiting Economic Inquiry 43 3 676-688. Dale S. and A. B. Krueger 2002 Estimating the Payoff to Attending a More Selective College An Application of Selection on Observables and Unobservables Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 1491-1527. Dustmann C. P. A. Puhani and U. Schonberg 2012 The Long-term Effects of School Quality on Labor Market Outcomes

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