2 1789 Abstract OECD OECD WTO 2013 2014 2013 (ADB) Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity rel

ISSN 1019-2441 1789 501 (02)2316-5847 http://www.cepd.gov.tw( ) 102926 ( ) 2012 Fed 913 2015 QE3 Fed Fed Fed

2 1789 Abstract OECD OECD WTO 2013 2014 2013 (ADB) Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to signal diverging growth patterns across major economies. The CLIs point to improvements in growth in most major OECD countries but stabilizing or slowing momentum in large emerging economies. Five years after global financial crisis and the fall of Lehman Brother, many banks and financial companies have learned the hard lessons, and even profited from the fall of the reckless ones. However, a few countries are more vulnerable in coping with global financial turbulence, or likely become the source of next crisis. WTO data showed that growth in global trade is projected to pick up moderately in 2013 and 2014, below previous projection. The downward revision was a result of a synchronized slowdown in import demand in developed economies and many large developing countries, which had a strong negative effect on exports growth by resource-rich developing countries as well as developed countries in the first half of 2013. As Asian economies continue to improve their relative comparative advantage in exporting sectors, it is important to increase competitiveness and productivity through more R&D and innovation two essential elements for sustainable wage growth and job creation in the region, a new study by the ADB suggests.

1789 3 5 WB 14 UN1990 1. 98 4. 113 1989 WBG20 11 5. 118 10 2. 101 6. 123 Fed 7% Fed TPP 3. 110 ADB 7. 126

4 1789 34 8. 129 9. 135 U 10. 142 2014 11 153 2014 155 156

1789 5 2010 Fed 201011 FOMC QE2 2011 6,000 2012 Fed913 2015 QE3 400 MBS 12 20131 450 850 2013 2008 Fed QE Fed Fed QE QE3 2013 1.1% GDP 1.7% 2.3% 2.4% 4.7% 12.5% 31

6 1789 1 ( ) % 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 3.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 10.5-1.5 6.5-2.4 4.7 9.9 8.6 4.7 2.7 11.6-1.5 6.0 5.8 4.5 0.3 9.8-4.6 4.4 23.0 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 12.9 4.2 3.8 0.4 1.1-1.3 8.6 0.7 2.5 0.5-3.1 0.6 7.0-1.4 0.3 3.5-6.5-4.2-0.9 U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 2.5% 1.8% 1.21 9.9% 1.48 0.37 0.18 1 12 7.8%6 7.6% Fed QE 5Fed Ben Bernanke Fed 850 Fed 5 FOMC Fed 6 FOMC Bernanke Fed 2013 2014 7 FOMC 2014 Fed 2013 ISM 8 55.7 58.6 200512

1789 7 8 8 16.9 18 8 7.3% 63.2% 1978 918 Fed Fed Fed Fed Fed Fed Bernanke Fed 850 Fed Fed Fed Fed 20128 9 Fed QE3 4.3%

8 1789 2 201217,517.1 1,955.8 3,941.7 1,521.3 4,682.4 57171.3 1,084.0 17193.6 1,577.3 63072.3 4,618.1 2 8,121.4 2,030.3 3,985.2 1,569.7 4,897.7 60721.2 1,160.9 17752.7 1,735.0 65811.75,349.9 37,933.0 2,014.0 4,121.6 1,596.3 47,501.7 1,982.0 4,180.7 1,570.6 57,301.5 1,843.5 3,832.8 1,580.7 67,296.3 1,854.0 3,955.6 1,599.2 77,270.5 1,882.0 4,142.3 1,631.6 87,397.1 1,905.1 4,060.3 1,646.1 97,715.2 1,996.2 4,262.6 1,636.7 107,166.1 1,912.1 4,350.3 1,673.1 117,580.2 1,932.9 4,276.1 1,610.8 127,699.5 1,997.1 4,316.7 1,689.0 5,107.7 62423.0 1,196.8 17404.2 1,637.7 64511.05,018.6 5,202.7 60010.4 1,228.5 17318.8 1,594.0 61820.34,945.5 5,091.2 55099.3 1,141.5 16218.5 1,242.4 54490.44,686.4 5,246.4 62543.5 1,172.1 17430.0 1,350.5 54354.64,708.6 5,307.7 64259.5 1,199.3 17236.2 1,377.4 56097.14,860.7 5,196.2 67368.0 1,227.5 17429.6 1,389.7 57061.55,332.3 5,346.1 66396.7 1,298.8 18762.7 1,475.7 59175.95,821.8 5,424.5 72529.0 1,298.9 18505.4 1,434.0 57068.25,695.9 5,640.5 73058.5 1,324.0 19339.9 1,436.6 57474.64,807.5 5,812.7 78208.4 1,391.9 19426.7 1,527.0 60952.15,462.4 201317,850.0 1,961.9 4,453.7 1,627.6 6,245.7 78783.5 1,474.2 19895.0 1,622.1 59761.5 5,606.5 27,898.0 2,026.5 4,795.8 1,637.6 37,918.6 2,004.9 4,941.0 1,671.6 48,093.7 1,964.0 5,034.1 1,717.7 58,254.8 2,001.1 5,068.6 1,769.2 68,062.2 1,863.3 4,818.9 1,773.5 78,107.9 1,914.0 4,610.4 1,772.6 6,721.5 79333.7 1,541.6 18861.5 1,534.4 57424.35,489.5 6,847.5 85899.0 1,561.1 18835.8 1,460.0 56352.15,098.8 7,071.0 86046.0 1,597.9 19504.2 1,407.2 55910.45,196.5 7,022.0 85990.0 1,562.1 19760.3 1,331.4 53506.15,438.8 6,465.3 76294.5 1,451.9 19395.8 1,275.4 47457.14,752.2 6,639.1 73377.5 1,423.1 19345.7 1,313.4 48234.55,324.7 88,021.9 1,926.4 4,195.1 1,727.6 6,075.2 66394.4 1,294.3 18619.7 1,291.0 50011.85,267.7 2012/8 (+) -2013/8 8.4 1.1 3.3 5.0 16.9-1.4 5.4 6.8-7.1-12.4-1.2 (-) 2013/5-2013/8 (%) -2.8-3.7-17.2-2.4-13.5-22.8-17.1-5.8-3.0-6.5-3.1 CEIC 0.6%1.4% 9.2% 7.7%6.2% 5.8%5.0%4.8% 4.3%3.7% 20135 Fed Fed 5 611 6.4% 12.6% 11.3% 6 11.3%7.1% 7.9% 6.9%4.9%4.2% 2

1789 9 1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

10 1789 1 10 10 10 10 10 5 8 11 8.9% 22.8%17.2% 17.1%13.5% 8 12.4%7.1% 1.4%1.2% Fed 10 1 20135 10

1789 11 5 10 409 10.12% 346.8 8.903% 284 12.3% 204 171 2.044%8.17% 100 62 1 20135 6 0.7%2.3% 8 0.6%0.4% 5 6 6.3%5.8% 14.9%14.2% 5 8 8.5% 6% 5 6.1% 3 8 8.5% 2 9% 20124 Currency Swap 30 5 10 8 2 7% 912 QE 1 7.25% 4 8 820 2 7.75% 3.5

12 1789 3 1 2012130.1 1,144.6 9,073.8 3.1 43.6 1.838 31.6 51.0 31.5 1.8 6.0 229.6 1,122.9 9,048.0 3.0 42.7 1.754 30.7 49.2 29.9 1.7 6.0 3 29.5 1,126.9 9,184.0 3.0 42.9 1.784 30.7 50.4 29.4 1.8 6.0 4 29.5 1,135.4 9,176.8 3.1 42.7 1.782 30.9 51.7 29.5 1.9 6.0 5 29.5 1,157.1 9,321.3 3.1 42.9 1.802 31.3 54.3 30.7 2.0 6.0 6 29.9 1,163.6 9,449.0 3.2 42.8 1.821 31.7 55.9 32.9 2.0 6.0 7 30.0 1,142.3 9,418.3 3.2 41.9 1.809 31.7 55.4 32.5 2.0 6.1 8 30.0 1,132.1 9,505.3 3.1 42.0 1.792 31.4 55.5 32.0 2.0 6.1 9 29.6 1,123.7 9,578.0 3.1 41.7 1.798 31.0 54.4 31.5 2.0 6.1 10 29.3 1,105.5 9,603.3 3.1 41.5 1.798 30.7 53.1 31.1 2.0 6.1 11 29.2 1,087.2 9,625.3 3.1 41.1 1.790 30.7 54.8 31.4 2.1 6.1 12 29.1 1,076.4 9,656.8 3.1 41.0 1.784 30.6 54.6 30.7 2.1 6.2 2013129.2 1,066.5 9,702.8 3.0 40.7 1.767 30.1 54.2 30.3 2.0 6.5 2 29.7 1,086.1 9,697.3 3.1 40.7 1.772 29.8 53.8 30.2 2.0 6.7 3 29.8 1,103.8 9,708.0 3.1 40.7 1.809 29.5 54.4 30.8 2.0 6.8 4 29.9 1,121.1 9,721.4 3.0 41.1 1.798 29.1 54.3 31.3 2.0 6.9 5 29.9 1,109.8 9,760.7 3.0 41.3 1.821 29.8 55.0 31.2 2.0 7.0 6 30.1 1,135.6 9,876.4 3.1 43.0 1.896 30.8 58.4 32.3 2.2 7.0 7 30.0 1,126.6 10,071.3 3.2 43.4 1.933 31.1 59.8 32.7 2.2 7.0 8 30.0 1,116.2 10,520.5 3.3 43.9-31.6 63.2 33.0 2.3 7.0 2012/8- (+) 2013/8 0.0 1.4-11.5-5.2-4.3-6.8-0.5-13.2-3.3-15.4-0.6 (-) 2013/5-2013/8 (%) -0.6-0.4-8.5-8.5-6.2-6.1-6.1-14.2-5.7-14.9-0.6 7 2013/7 1785 918 Fed

1789 13 Fed Fed Fed QE 5Fed Ben Bernanke QE QE Fed QE 1. 1785 20138 2. 642 20139

14 1789 2013 2014 2.4%3.4% Global Insight Inc. 2013 2 2013 2.4%2014 3.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2014 2015 2013 1.8% 0.3% 2013 0.6% 2014 0.7% 7 2013 1.8% Fed 850 7.4% 12 00.25% 6.5% 2015 2.0%

1789 15 2013 2013 1 0.76 1 96.98 1 6.16 2013 101 106 2015 94 2013 2014 1.6%2.7% 1.7% 2.0% 10 5 2.0% 2.9% 2013 1.6 %2014 2.7% 7.4% 24.0% 2013 2013 1 0.76 1 96.98 1 6.16 400 450 12 2014 2015 2014 2013 2014 0.6% 0.7% 2013 0.3% 0.5% 25

16 1789 2013 0.6% 2014 0.7% 0.50% 0.25% 2013 2013 1 0.76 2013 2014 1.8%1.8% 3.8% 2.6% 7 20144 201510 2013 2014 1.8% 2015 2015 1.3% 201212 2015 201210 1 79 20135 100 100 2013 2013 1 96.98 20 2014 2013 0.1% 2013

1789 17 2014 5.8%6.3% 2013 5.8%2014 6.3% 7 10.9%5.1% 13.7% 2013 7.5%2014 8.0% 2013 2.5% 5 16% 2013/14 5.1% 2014/15 6.5% 2013 9.1% 2013 2014 2.8%3.6% 2013 2014 2014 2.5%2.7%

18 1789 80% 2013 2.8%2014 3.6% 2013 2.2% 2013 2.4%2.6%2014 4.1% 2013 2014 2.9% 3.7% 2013 2013 2.9%2014 3.7% GCC 3.7% 2013 2.8% 3.0% 2013 2014 4.9%5.4% 2013 2014 5.0% 2008 90% 2013 4.9%2014 5.4%

1789 19 1 % 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP 2.52.6 2.42.6 3.43.5 3.93.9 2.32.3 1.71.9 2.82.9 3.53.3 2.22.2 1.61.8 2.72.8 3.53.2 1.71.8 1.61.7 2.42.5 2.72.7 3.93.9 2.63.3 4.14.8 4.54.5-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2 1.00.7 1.51.4 0.20.3 1.30.9 2.01.4 2.22.0-0.6-0.5-0.6-0.7 0.70.4 1.21.2 0.90.9 0.50.6 1.71.5 1.81.6 0.00.0-0.3-0.4 0.50.5 1.11.2-2.4-2.4-2.0-2.0-0.5-0.6 0.40.5-1.4-1.4-1.7-2.0-0.5-0.7 0.20.0 1.21.2 1.61.9 3.33.4 4.04.2 ( ) 5.75.8 5.86.0 6.36.5 6.97.0 2.02.0 1.81.5 1.82.3 1.31.7 7.77.8 7.57.8 7.88.1 8.38.4 3.24.2 5.16.1 6.56.9 6.97.7 2.02.0 2.41.6 3.33.4 4.04.1 2.72.7 2.83.3 3.64.2 4.14.2 0.90.9 2.23.0 3.14.0 3.84.3 3.93.9 2.92.9 3.73.8 4.54.5 3.53.5 2.82.8 3.83.8 4.44.4 5.55.4 3.03.1 3.53.8 4.74.6 4.84.9 4.95.1 5.45.3 5.65.2 1.91.8 1.92.3 4.24.3 4.74.8 3.63.6 2.32.6 2.93.6 3.53.9-2.3-2.3-0.7-0.8 2.31.9 1.92.0-2.7-2.7-0.7-0.9 2.31.9 1.82.0 4.54.1 4.35.1 7.37.4 8.18.2 0.2-1.0 0.60.3 6.15.3 5.55.3 2.13.2 1.52.8 1.53.1 1.63.1 2.32.1 1.41.3 1.61.5 1.91.7 2.82.8 2.82.8 2.62.4 2.22.1 0.00.0 0.2-0.5 2.71.9 2.02.2 0.760.76 0.760.78 0.790.79 0.760.76 0.620.62 0.650.65 0.620.62 0.620.62 86.5586.55 97.4296.22 99.0093.43101.3691.98 6.236.23 6.116.08 5.925.89 5.795.77 0.80.8 2.12.1 4.75.2 7.48.8 0.70.4 2.12.3 5.25.2 7.89.1 2013 Global Insight Inc., World Overview, Third-quarter, 2013.

20 1789 2013 2.2% 6.9% 6.4% 2.0%8 16.9 7.3% 63.2% 7 1,894.5 2,285.9 391.5 46.1 8 7 5.0% 57.1 4 8 0.4% 7 8 0.4% 8 7 0.7% 0.3% 1.5% 8 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% +4.4% +0.6% +2.0% 1.5% -0.3% 0.9% +1.2% +3.6% -0.2% +1.0% +0.3% +0.4% +1.0% +0.7% +0.7% 76.1% 2.6 +1.2% 76.2%

1789 21 0.8 NAIC +0.7% 0.3% 90.0% 2.7 1.5% 74.7% 11.5 8 75.7% 5.3 75.8% 1.3 8 7.3% 8 16.9 7.3% 7 7.1% 6.3% 22.7% 6.4% 9.3% 13.0% 5.1% 8 27 429.0 37.9% 63.2% 1978 / 58.6% 33.4 791.1 234.2 86.6 12.2 4 12 8 / +13.4 +0.8 +4.4 +1.2-1.8-0.5 +2.3 +1.3 +2.7 +1.8 +0.4 +1.4 8 34.5 0.1 40.8 / +5 24.05 8 CPI-U 0.1% 8 CPI- U 0.1% 12 1.5%8 CPI-U 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

22 1789 7 391.5 2.3% 0.1% 0.7% +0.0% -0.1% +1.2% -0.7% -0.1% -2.3% +0.0% -0.1% +0.1% +0.4% +0.2% +0.2% -0.5% +0.7% CPI-U 1.5% +1.4% -0.1% -2.2% -2.4% +0.0% +3.2% +2.8% +4.8% CPI-U+1.8% CPI-U0.0% +1.1% -1.0% +1.8% -0.0% +2.4% +2.4% +2.5% +3.1% 8 CPI-W 0.1% 1.5% 230.359 1982~84=100 7 1,894.5 2,285.9 391.5 46.1 7 11.0 1,327.1 34.2 1,912.9 585.8 45.2 567.3 0.1 373.0 0.9 194.4 0.7 / +17 +4-16 -14-3 -2 / +20 +8 +7 +3 +1-3 / +2-1 -1 / +1 7 31 263 19 346 83

1789 23 * 1 2 3 4 5WTO 2-1 % * * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 1.8 0.2 5.8-1.3 1.6 2.25 4.25 6,974.4-4.6 11,719.3 1.7-4,744.9 2003 2.8 1.2 6.0 3.2 2.3 2.00 4.00 7,298.2 4.6 12,702.3 8.4-5,404.1 2004 3.8 2.3 5.5 3.6 2.7 3.15 5.15 8,219.9 12.6 14,854.9 16.9-6,635.0 2005 3.4 3.2 5.1 4.9 3.4 5.15 7.15 9,116.9 10.9 16,924.2 13.9-7,807.3 2006 2.7 2.2 4.6 2.9 3.2 6.25 8.25 10,259.7 12.5 19,194.3 13.4-8,934.6 2007 1.8 2.5 4.6 3.9 2.9 4.83 7.33 11,482.0 11.9 20,204.0 5.3-8,722.1 2008-0.3-3.4 5.8 6.4 3.8 0.86 3.61 12,874.4 12.1 21,694.9 7.4-8,820.4 2009-2.8-11.3 9.3-2.5-0.3 0.50 3.25 10,560.4-18.0 16,053.0-26.0-5,492.5 2010 2.5 5.7 9.6 4.2 1.6 0.75 3.25 12,784.9 21.1 19,691.8 22.7-6,906.9 2011 1.8 3.4 8.9 6.0 3.1 0.75 3.25 14,802.9 15.8 22,658.9 15.1-7,856.0 2012 2.8 3.6 8.1 1.9 2.1 0.75 3.25 15,457.1 4.4 23,355.4 3.1-7,898.3 2011 10 3.5 8.9 5.9 3.5 0.75 3.25 1,310.9 11.8 1,967.8 12.3-656.9 11 2.0 3.4 8.6 5.7 3.5 0.75 3.25 1,256.9 11.1 1,950.9 12.4-693.9 12 3.0 8.5 4.7 3.0 0.75 3.25 1,268.9 8.0 1,891.2 10.7-622.3 2012 1 3.9 8.3 4.1 3.0 0.75 3.25 1,178.4 6.9 1,884.0 9.7-705.7 2 3.3 4.9 8.3 3.4 2.9 0.75 3.25 1,236.1 12.8 1,762.4 9.8-526.3 3 3.2 8.2 2.7 2.6 0.75 3.25 1,402.3 6.5 2,023.0 6.0-620.6 4 4.6 8.1 1.8 2.3 0.75 3.25 1,274.0 2.7 1,944.5 6.2-670.4 5 2.8 4.5 8.2 0.7 1.7 0.75 3.25 1,313.4 5.9 2,036.0 5.0-722.6 6 4.4 8.2 0.8 1.7 0.75 3.25 1,325.5 7.7 1,969.4 0.2-644.0 7 4.2 8.2 0.6 1.4 0.75 3.25 1,214.1 1.0 1,979.9 3.0-765.7 8 3.1 2.8 8.1 2.0 1.7 0.75 3.25 1,285.9 1.5 1,999.8-0.7-713.9 9 2.9 7.8 2.1 2.0 0.75 3.25 1,282.0 0.9 1,904.7-2.1-622.7 10 2.2 7.9 2.3 2.2 0.75 3.25 1,336.0 1.9 2,039.4 3.6-703.4 11 2.0 3.3 7.8 1.4 1.8 0.75 3.25 1,301.8 3.6 1,994.7 2.2-692.9 12 2.7 7.8 1.4 1.8 0.75 3.25 1,307.6 3.0 1,817.6-3.9-510.0 2013 1 2.1 7.9 1.4 1.6 0.75 3.25 1,233.9 4.7 1,904.0 1.1-670.1 2 1.3 2.2 7.7 1.8 2.0 0.75 3.25 1,236.1 0.0 1,750.1-0.7-514.0 3 3.1 7.6 1.1 1.5 0.75 3.25 1,364.1-2.7 1,866.4-7.7-502.2 4 2.0 7.5 0.6 1.1 0.75 3.25 1,297.3 1.8 1,961.5 0.9-664.2 5 1.6 1.8 7.6 1.8 1.4 0.75 3.25 1,330.0 1.3 2,020.3-0.8-690.3 6 1.9 7.6 2.5 1.8 0.75 3.25 1,348.2 1.7 1,900.5-3.5-552.3 7 1.4 7.4 2.1 2.0 0.75 3.25 1,276.2 5.1 2,037.6 2.9-761.5 8 2.7 7.3 1.4 1.5 0.75 3.25

24 1789 7 +29 +17 +15 +6-301 -139-74 -68-64 -41-33 -28-23 -23-22 -21 2013 GDP 2.6% 3.8% GDP -0.1% +1.3% 20144 5%8% 7 7 0.0% 7 7,772 0.0% 2 280 6 7~9 +12.0 7~9 12.0 5.9 2004 2014 2013 9.8 2014 8.5 101 20144 2013 GDP 15.2 10.2

1789 25 10.4 4.0 9.6 8.6-8.7 GDP 2013 GDP 0.9% 2.6% 3.8% 0.1-0.1% +1.3% GDP 3.0% 1.8% 7 103.8 7 103.82010=100 1.6% 97.7 3.2% MOS 7 101.0 0.7% 94.9 1.3% 7 109.3 2.8% 108.6 1.5% 3 8 0.2% 9 8 1.7% 78 72 0.1% 72 286,098 0.1%

26 1789 10.3% 6.5% 2.8% 12.1% 8.9% 5.3% 1.6% 1.2% 0.7% 72 569,174 1.3% 19.9% 3.0% 0.8%7 1.6% 7 3.8% 7 3.8% 0.1 4.2% 0.1 3.3% 0.2 7 255 33 38 162 14 93 19 97 7 55 17 7 6,311 34 7 1,053 12 74 23 472 31 7 4,517 13 7 7 0.7% 7 100.02010=100 0.7% 100.1 0.7% 98.3 0.1% 6.4% 2.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4%

1789 27 2-2 % * * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 0.3 5.4-2.1-0.9 0.10 1.38 4,167.3 3.3 3,376.0-3.3 791.3 2003 1.7 5.2-0.9-0.2 0.10 1.38 4,718.2 13.2 3,933.0 16.5 785.2 2004 2.4 4.8 4.7 1.3 0.0 0.10 1.38 5,656.7 19.9 4,551.9 15.7 1,104.8 2005 1.3 1.4 4.4 1.6-0.3 0.10 1.38 5,948.6 5.2 5,158.1 13.3 790.5 2006 1.7 4.5 4.1 2.2 0.2 0.40 1.63 6,467.4 8.7 5,790.4 12.3 676.9 2007 2.2 2.8 3.8 1.8 0.1 0.75 1.88 7,142.1 10.4 6,221.4 7.4 920.8 2008-1.0-3.4 4.0 4.6 1.4 0.30 1.68 7,820.5 9.5 7,625.9 22.6 194.6 2009-5.5-21.8 5.1-5.3-1.3 0.30 1.48 5,807.2-25.7 5,519.6-27.6 287.6 2010 4.7 15.6 5.1-0.1-0.7 0.30 1.48 7,697.7 32.6 6,940.5 25.7 757.2 2011-0.6-2.8 4.6 1.5-0.3 0.30 1.48 8,225.6 6.9 8,550.0 23.2-324.3 2012 2.0 0.6 4.4-0.9 0.0 0.30 1.48 7,986.2-2.9 8,860.4 3.6-874.2 2011 10 1.5 4.5 1.3-0.2 0.30 1.48 717.3 2.6 754.2 25.8-36.9 11-0.2-2.4 4.5 1.3-0.5 0.30 1.48 669.8 1.6 758.9 18.5-89.1 12-1.8 4.5 0.8-0.2 0.30 1.48 722.3-1.4 749.1 15.9-26.8 2012 1 0.1 4.5 0.3 0.1 0.30 1.48 586.4-2.5 780.0 17.9-193.6 2 3.4 3.0 4.5 0.4 0.3 0.30 1.48 694.3 2.5 691.0 15.1 3.3 3 16.6 4.5 0.3 0.5 0.30 1.48 752.5 5.1 762.4 9.6-9.9 4 15.1 4.5-0.7 0.5 0.30 1.48 682.9 10.4 746.5 10.4-63.6 5 3.8 7.6 4.4-0.9 0.2 0.30 1.48 656.9 12.2 770.8 11.5-113.9 6-0.6 4.3-1.5-0.1 0.30 1.48 711.3-0.8 704.2-0.7 7.1 7 0.1 4.3-2.3-0.4 0.30 1.48 672.6-7.6 739.5 2.8-66.9 8 0.3-4.1 4.2-2.0-0.5 0.30 1.48 641.3-7.5 738.9-7.0-97.7 9-7.6 4.3-1.5-0.3 0.30 1.48 685.4-11.8 758.1 2.5-72.7 10-4.7 4.2-1.1-0.4 0.30 1.48 651.9-9.1 722.3-4.2-70.4 11 0.4-5.5 4.2-1.1-0.2 0.30 1.48 616.8-7.9 735.2-3.1-118.5 12-7.6 4.3-0.7-0.1 0.30 1.48 634.0-12.2 711.2-5.1-77.3 2013 1-6.0 4.2-0.4-0.3 0.30 1.48 538.2-8.2 721.4-7.5-183.2 2 0.3-10.1 4.3-0.1-0.6 0.30 1.48 567.1-18.3 650.9-5.8-83.9 3-7.2 4.1-0.5-0.9 0.30 1.48 661.6-12.1 700.3-8.2-38.7 4-3.4 4.1 0.1-0.7 0.30 1.48 591.3-13.4 681.8-8.7-90.6 5 1.2-1.1 4.1 0.5-0.3 0.30 1.48 570.5-13.2 669.2-13.2-98.7 6-4.6 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.30 1.48 622.7-12.4 641.4-8.9-18.7 7 1.8 3.8 2.3 0.7 0.30 1.48 597.5-11.2 700.6-5.3-103.1 8 2.4 0.30 1.48 591.3-7.8 689.5-6.7-98.2 * 1 2 3 4 3 4WTO

28 1789 7 12.2% 7 12.2% 5 5 9,620 50.3% 14.7% 14.3% 7 69,860 19.6% 9 40.5% 30.2% 16.9% 7 1240 93.7% 13 7 53.1%7 98.83 1 24.3% 7 11,059 18.4% 7 117.8% 31.9% 12.2% 7 6,059 18.2% 4 200.4% 39.3% 33.8% 7 5,000 18.6% 7 7 EU 5,872 16.6% 2 36.7% 27.6% 22.3% 7 6,899 15.4% 10 223.7% 30.9% 16.0% 7 1,026 8.8% 7 7 32,231 9.1% 5 64.5% 17.4% 15.5% 7 3.1 18.5% 42.3% 44.0% 30.4% 7 1,024 67.9% 6 7 1.1 9.5% 4 75.6% 26.0% 14.0% 7 1.5

1789 29 18.3% 100.1% 30.4% 27.4% 7 3,864 53.3% 17 1. 2013 17 0.5% 27 28 21 20136 0.6%0.9% 7 1.5%1% 28 23.4% 556 28 182 104 20138 28 2.6%2.7% 17 0.5% 27 2013 17 2012 0.5% 27 2013 0.6%0.1% 3.5%3.6% 0.3%0.8% 0.7%1.1% 0.4% 7 17 28 1.5%1% 21 20136 0.6%0.9% 7 1.5%1% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6%1.2% 2.6%1.6% 2.2%0.5% 0.9%0.5% 7.8% 7.3% 3.8% -8.2% -7.9% -7.7% -6.2% 7 17 28 12.1%11% 20137 28 12.1% 11%7 28 2,665.4 6 3.3 72.2% 1,923.1 6 1.5 28 23.4% 556 6 3.8 63%

30 1789 350 6 1.6 8 28 2.6%2.7% 20138 2.6% 2.7% 8.9% 3% 11.3%5.4% 1.1% 1.8% 5.2%4.7% 3.3% 7 28 182 104 20137 182 2012 3% 1,668 1,486 20137 28 104 2012 4% 1,547 2% 1,443 1 0.5% 2013 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% GDP 2013 2.3% 6 20139 2013 0.5% 7 0.7% 20137 2012 0.7% 7 0.9% 1.5% 3% 2.3% 7 5.3% 20137 4,177.5 6 1.3 2012 0.5% 225.5 6 1.8 5.3% 25 7.7% 35 5.6% 4.9%

1789 31 却 8 1.7% 20138 2012 1.7% 4.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 3.7%1.7%0.6% 7 7% 20137 2,232.6 2012 7% 1,222.6 2012 6.7% 1,010 7.4% 212.6 2 1.5% 2013 1.5% 2011 201346 GDP 2010 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% OECD 2013 2013 GDP 0.8% 1.5% 7 1.5% 26 20136 1.5% 7 1.5% 0.7% 1.6% 0.9% 8.4% 3.2% 2.3% 5 7.7% 20135 7.7% 4 246 425 20.7% 93.8 8.2% 7.1% 24 4.6 121 1992 5 1.96 20097

32 1789 2-3-1 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 0.0-1.1 8.7 0.2 1.4 2.75 2.98 6,201.1 9.0 4,938.7 2.1 1,262.4 2003-0.4 0.5 9.8 0.6 1.0 2.00 2.13 7,593.5 22.5 6,107.9 23.7 1,485.6 2004 1.2 4.3 10.5 2.9 1.7 2.00 2.17 9,120.3 20.1 7,180.6 17.6 1,939.7 2005 0.7 3.1 11.3 3.0 1.5 2.25 2.41 9,718.0 6.6 7,756.1 8.0 1,961.9 2006 3.7 5.3 10.2 3.5 1.6 3.50 3.64 11,088.9 14.1 9,074.5 17.0 2,014.5 2007 3.3 5.8 8.7 3.5 2.3 4.00 4.71 13,221.9 19.2 10,558.5 16.4 2,663.4 2008 1.1 0.6 7.5 5.4 2.6 2.50 2.99 14,492.7 9.6 11,857.6 12.3 2,635.1 2009-5.1-16.4 7.8-6.9 0.3 1.00 0.48 11,206.1-22.7 9,258.0-21.9 1,948.1 2010 4.0 11.2 7.1 5.8 1.1 1.00 0.81 12,584.0 12.3 10,542.0 13.9 2,042.0 2011 3.3 6.5 6.0 7.5 2.1 1.00 1.14 14,740.4 17.1 12,550.0 19.0 2,190.3 2012 0.7-0.8 5.5 2.8 2.0 0.75 0.11 14,076.2-4.5 11,679.1-6.9 2,397.1 2011 10-0.6 5.7 5.0 2.3 1.50 1.36 1,217.7 2.1 1,068.8 7.8 149.0 11 2.2 3.0 5.7 4.9 2.4 1.25 1.23 1,272.9 6.7 1,056.0 5.0 217.0 12-0.4 5.6 3.0 2.0 1.00 1.14 1,115.2 4.4 951.6 5.4 163.6 2012 1 4.5 5.6 3.0 2.1 1.00 0.84 1,107.5 4.7 938.4 1.4 169.1 2 1.3 3.6 5.5 2.6 2.2 1.00 0.63 1,203.2 4.5 1,009.0 2.2 194.2 3-0.5 5.5 2.2 2.2 1.00 0.47 1,300.9-5.6 1,073.9-3.7 227.0 4-0.4 5.5 2.4 2.0 1.00 0.41 1,144.1-6.1 955.9-10.1 188.2 5 1.1-5.9 5.5 1.7 2.0 1.00 0.39 1,183.2-10.5 986.1-11.3 197.1 6 4.2 5.4 1.1 1.7 1.00 0.38 1,183.0-6.4 960.9-11.1 222.0 7 2.0 5.4 2.0 1.9 0.75 0.22 1,146.0-5.9 940.5-12.0 205.5 8 0.9-0.6 5.4 3.1 2.2 0.75 0.13 1,115.1-8.6 915.3-13.1 199.8 9-6.7 5.4 4.2 2.0 0.75 0.12 1,177.6-9.8 961.6-10.0 216.1 10 3.8 5.4 4.6 2.0 0.75 0.11 1,275.8 4.8 1,072.5 0.3 203.3 11 0.3-2.8 5.4 3.2 1.9 0.75 0.11 1,205.0-5.3 988.6-6.4 216.5 12-8.8 5.4 3.2 2.0 0.75 0.11 1,035.0-7.2 876.5-7.9 158.5 2013 1-1.0 5.4 2.3 1.7 0.75 0.11 1,175.8 6.2 994.7 6.0 181.1 2-0.3-5.8 5.4 1.4 1.5 0.75 0.12 1,183.1-1.7 958.7-5.0 224.4 3-7.8 5.4 0.3 1.4 0.75 0.12 1,225.6-5.8 980.8-8.7 244.8 4 7.0 5.4-0.4 1.2 0.75 0.12 1,228.6 7.4 993.7 4.0 234.9 5 0.5-4.6 5.4-0.1 1.5 0.50 0.11 1,149.4-2.9 972.2-1.4 177.2 6-0.6 5.4 0.7 1.8 0.50 0.12 1,222.3 3.3 997.4 3.8 224.8 7 0.7 5.3 0.0 1.9 0.50 0.13 1,222.6 6.7 1,010.0 7.4 212.6 8-1.7 1.5 0.50 0.13 * 1 19991 Main refinancing operations Minimum bid rate 2 19991 Prime rate 1 2 3 5WTO

1789 33 2-3-2 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 2.3-1.4 5.1-0.1 1.3 4.00 4.00 2,797.8 2.7 3,515.6 6.0-717.8 2003 3.9-0.6 5.0 0.6 1.4 3.75 3.50 3,076.6 10.0 3,873.5 10.2-796.9 2004 3.2 0.7 4.7 1.0 1.3 4.75 5.00 3,497.5 13.7 4,612.7 19.1-1,115.2 2005 3.2-0.8 4.8 2.0 2.1 4.50 5.00 3,845.1 9.9 5,091.8 10.4-1,246.7 2006 2.8 0.3 5.4 2.0 2.3 5.00 5.50 4,501.7 17.1 6,119.0 20.2-1,617.3 2007 3.4 0.4 5.3 2.3 2.3 5.50 6.50 4,420.6-1.8 6,387.3 4.4-1,966.6 2008-0.8-2.9 5.6 6.8 3.6 2.00 5.50 4,729.2 7.0 6,599.2 3.3-1,870.0 2009-5.2-9.5 7.6 1.6 2.2 0.50 1.00 3,553.0-24.9 5,188.8-21.4-1,635.8 2010 1.7 2.8 7.8 4.2 3.3 0.50 1.00 4,156.0 17.0 5,902.2 13.7-1,746.2 2011 1.1-1.2 8.0 5.6 4.5 0.50 1.00 5,056.5 21.7 6,766.7 14.6-1,710.2 2012 0.2-2.4 7.9 2.8 2.8 0.50 1.00 4,729.4-6.5 6,244.7-7.7-1,515.3 2011 10-3.0 8.4 5.7 5.0 0.50 1.00 491.1 29.6 587.5 11.5-96.4 11 1.1-3.4 8.3 5.4 4.8 0.50 1.00 436.4 9.4 612.3 9.8-176.0 12-2.5 8.3 4.8 4.2 0.50 1.00 404.1 7.3 530.2 0.0-126.0 2012 1-3.5 8.2 4.0 3.6 0.50 1.50 386.9-3.9 545.4 4.5-158.5 2 0.6-1.7 8.1 4.1 3.4 0.50 1.50 392.5-11.5 559.1 11.4-166.7 3-2.0 8.1 3.7 3.5 0.50 1.50 438.2 0.8 612.5 3.4-174.4 4-1.4 8.0 3.3 3.0 0.50 1.50 368.0-5.9 565.5 7.4-197.5 5 0.0-1.5 7.9 2.8 2.8 0.50 1.50 425.7 0.4 549.0-4.6-123.3 6-4.2 7.9 2.0 2.4 0.50 1.50 380.2-5.5 537.7-6.6-157.6 7-0.7 7.8 1.8 2.6 0.50 1.00 398.3-2.9 543.8-7.1-145.6 8 0.1-0.7 7.8 2.3 2.5 0.50 1.00 369.7-2.0 577.4 2.1-207.7 9-3.7 7.8 2.5 2.2 0.50 1.00 384.8-12.4 655.0 10.6-270.1 10-3.9 7.7 2.6 2.6 0.50 1.00 407.2-17.1 648.0 10.3-240.8 11 0.0-3.0 7.7 2.1 2.6 0.50 1.00 401.5-8.0 579.4-5.4-177.9 12-3.0 7.7 2.1 2.7 0.50 1.00 376.5-6.8 535.7 1.1-159.2 2013 1-3.3 7.8 2.1 2.7 0.50 1.00 421.1 8.8 544.8-0.1-123.7 2 0.3-2.4 7.7 2.3 2.8 0.50 1.00 407.8 3.9 514.8-7.9-107.0 3-2.1 7.7 1.9 2.8 0.50 1.00 466.9 6.6 549.0-10.4-82.2 4-1.4 7.7 1.0 2.4 0.50 1.00 455.5 23.8 524.2-7.3-68.6 5 1.5-2.3 7.7 1.2 2.7 0.50 1.00 552.7 29.8 520.5-5.2 32.2 6 1.5 7.7 2.0 2.9 0.50 1.00 470.4 23.7 539.6 0.3-69.2 7-1.5 2.1 2.7 0.50 1.00 459.6 15.4 544.6 0.1-85.0 8 1.6 2.7 0.50 1.00 * Bank Rate 1 2 3 4WTO

34 1789 8 2.7% 20138 2012 2.7% 19.7% 6% 4.2% 4.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 7 6.6% 20137 1,004.2 2012 6.6% 459.6 2012 15.4% 544.6 0.1% 85 3 0.3% INSEE 2013 2012 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1-1% 2% 1.9% GDP 2013 0.1% 7 1.8% 12 20135 0.8% 6 7 0.1%1.8% 7 1.1% -2.6% 3% 1% 7 11% 20137 11% 325.9 6 1.6 26% 73.1 6 7 11% 11.1% 8 0.9% 20138 2012 0.9% 20138 10.5% 7.6% 1.6% 1% 4.3% 3.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1%

1789 35 2-3-3 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 0.9-1.7 8.3 1.9 2.75 2.98 3,182.4 5.9 3,146.7 4.4 35.7 2003 0.9-1.2 8.9 2.1 2.00 2.13 3,761.3 18.2 3,753.5 19.3 7.8 2004 2.5 1.1 9.3 2.1 2.00 2.17 4,263.3 13.3 4,339.2 15.6-75.9 2005 1.8 0.2 9.3 1.7 2.25 2.41 4,435.9 4.0 4,738.0 9.2-302.1 2006 2.5 1.0 9.2 3.2 1.7 3.50 3.64 4,957.4 11.8 5,418.1 14.4-460.8 2007 2.3 1.0 8.4 2.1 1.5 4.00 4.71 5,598.5 12.9 6,315.3 16.6-716.8 2008-0.1-3.2 7.8 4.6 2.8 2.50 2.99 6,173.7 10.3 7,179.2 13.7-1,005.4 2009-3.1-13.9 9.5-4.7 0.1 1.00 0.48 4,852.2-21.4 5,634.8-21.5-782.6 2010 1.7 4.6 9.7 2.5 1.5 1.00 0.81 5,236.4 7.9 6,109.1 8.4-872.7 2011 2.0 2.1 9.6 4.6 2.1 1.00 1.14 5,963.0 13.9 7,198.9 17.8-1,235.9 2012 0.0-2.5 10.3 2.3 2.0 0.75 0.11 5,693.9-4.5 6,744.0-6.3-1,050.2 2011 10 1.0 9.7 4.5 2.3 1.50 1.36 497.8 4.9 599.8 12.5-102.0 11 1.5 0.1 9.8 4.2 2.5 1.25 1.23 517.3 6.3 606.4 4.0-89.1 12-2.7 9.9 3.5 2.5 1.00 1.14 467.9 4.1 540.7-0.4-72.8 2012 1-2.7 9.9 3.3 2.3 1.00 0.84 458.0 5.2 557.5 0.9-99.5 2 0.4-2.5 10.0 3.5 2.3 1.00 0.63 489.8 4.0 594.0 2.7-104.3 3-2.4 10.0 3.0 2.3 1.00 0.47 537.7-5.4 618.5-8.9-80.7 4-0.3 10.1 2.2 2.1 1.00 0.41 465.1-8.0 566.8-7.5-101.8 5 0.1-3.9 10.2 1.7 2.0 1.00 0.39 466.5-13.4 559.5-14.8-92.9 6-3.2 10.2 1.3 1.9 1.00 0.38 487.0-7.0 576.6-7.8-89.6 7-2.4 10.2 1.4 1.9 0.75 0.22 470.3-4.2 536.4-8.3-66.2 8 0.0-0.8 10.3 2.6 2.1 0.75 0.13 394.1-10.0 484.2-10.7-90.1 9-2.0 10.4 2.5 1.9 0.75 0.12 468.7-7.8 549.3-11.4-80.6 10-2.9 10.5 2.4 1.9 0.75 0.11 524.7 5.4 611.8 2.0-87.2 11-0.3-4.4 10.6 1.9 1.4 0.75 0.11 498.3-3.7 574.0-5.4-75.7 12-2.1 10.7 1.7 1.3 0.75 0.11 433.8-7.3 515.4-4.7-81.7 2013 1-3.2 10.8 1.7 1.2 0.75 0.11 471.6 3.0 578.8 3.8-107.2 2-0.5-2.1 10.8 1.4 1.0 0.75 0.12 470.9-3.8 568.7-4.3-97.7 3-1.7 10.8 1.1 1.0 0.75 0.12 502.7-6.5 564.0-8.8-61.2 4-0.1 10.8 0.2 0.7 0.75 0.12 504.8 8.5 578.1 2.0-73.4 5 0.3 0.8 10.9-0.2 0.8 0.50 0.11 460.4-1.3 553.1-1.1-92.8 6-0.1 11.0 0.0 0.9 0.50 0.12 487.7 0.1 555.5-3.7-67.9 7-1.8 11.0 0.1 1.1 0.50 0.13 507.9 8.0 588.4 9.7-80.6 8 0.9 0.50 0.13 * 1 19991 Main refinancing operations Minimum bid rate 2 19991 Prime rate 1 2INSEE 3WTO

36 1789 1.8% 2.2% 4.6% 7 8.9% 20137 1,096.3 2012 8.9% 507.9 2012 8% 588.4 9.7% 80.6 4 2.1% 2013 2.1% GDP GDP 2013 1.9% 2013 11.6% 2011 2012 GDP 2012 2.9% 2013 2.1% 2013 2014 GDP 0.1%0.5% GDP 2013 128.1% 2014 7 4.4% 20137 2012 4.4% 23 10 GDP 130% 2013 2.1 7 12% 20137 12% 307.6 6 1 39.5% 63.5 6 5 11.4% 12.8% 8 1.2% 20138 2012 1.2% 3 20138 3% 2.7% 1.8%

1789 37 2-3-4 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 0.5-1.5 8.6 2.5 2.75 2.98 2,529.1 5.3 2,443.4 5.6 85.7 2003 0.0-0.5 8.5 2.7 2.00 2.13 2,979.0 17.8 2,947.1 20.6 31.9 2004 1.7-0.2 8.0 2.2 2.00 2.17 3,545.9 19.0 3,563.7 20.9-17.8 2005 0.9-0.6 7.7 2.0 2.25 2.41 3,706.4 4.5 3,824.0 7.3-117.6 2006 2.2 3.7 6.8 5.2 2.1 3.50 3.64 4,172.2 12.6 4,426.0 15.7-253.8 2007 1.7 1.9 6.1 3.3 1.8 4.00 4.71 5,002.4 19.9 5,118.7 15.7-116.3 2008-1.2-3.8 6.8 5.8 3.4 2.50 2.99 5,446.4 8.9 5,631.1 10.0-184.7 2009-5.5-18.6 7.8-5.4 0.8 1.00 0.48 4,068.3-25.3 4,148.6-26.3-80.4 2010 1.7 7.0 8.4 3.1 1.5 1.00 0.81 4,468.9 9.8 4,869.3 17.4-400.4 2011 0.4 1.2 8.4 5.1 2.7 1.00 1.14 5,234.0 17.1 5,589.4 14.8-355.3 2012-2.4-6.3 10.7 4.1 3.0 0.75 0.11 5,009.8-4.3 4,871.6-12.8 138.2 2011 10-2.5 8.8 6.1 3.3 1.50 1.36 440.4 3.0 455.7-1.6-15.3 11-0.5-2.4 9.3 6.0 3.2 1.25 1.23 439.8 5.7 461.2-0.2-21.5 12-2.8 9.5 5.5 3.3 1.00 1.14 413.3 5.2 394.8-8.8 18.5 2012 1-4.3 9.5 5.2 3.2 1.00 0.84 354.0 1.3 413.0-5.0-59.0 2-1.7-6.5 10.0 5.2 3.3 1.00 0.63 420.3 4.0 436.2-2.2-15.8 3-6.3 10.3 4.8 3.3 1.00 0.47 476.2-1.0 452.5-16.1 23.6 4-8.1 10.6 4.6 3.3 1.00 0.41 401.6-10.5 404.9-17.5-3.3 5-2.4-6.1 10.4 4.4 3.2 1.00 0.39 449.3-6.7 438.2-14.8 11.1 6-6.9 10.8 4.2 3.3 1.00 0.38 430.4-8.4 395.5-20.3 34.8 7-5.8 10.7 3.8 3.1 0.75 0.22 454.9-9.7 396.7-18.3 58.2 8-2.6-7.2 10.7 4.5 3.2 0.75 0.13 322.1-7.4 328.1-15.9-6.0 9-5.1 11.0 4.2 3.2 0.75 0.12 406.3-10.6 401.0-16.5 5.3 10-5.5 11.3 3.5 2.6 0.75 0.11 467.0 6.0 435.6-4.4 31.4 11-2.8-7.0 11.3 2.8 2.5 0.75 0.11 430.9-2.0 400.6-13.1 30.3 12-7.2 11.4 2.4 2.3 0.75 0.11 396.8-4.0 369.2-6.5 27.6 2013 1-3.7 11.9 0.7 2.2 0.75 0.11 396.3 12.0 417.7 1.1-21.4 2-2.4-4.1 11.8 0.5 1.9 0.75 0.12 412.7-1.8 398.1-8.7 14.6 3-5.0 11.9 0.0 1.6 0.75 0.12 439.4-7.7 397.4-12.2 42.0 4-4.1 12.0-1.1 1.1 0.75 0.12 415.1 3.4 388.7-4.0 26.4 5-2.1-4.4 12.2-1.1 1.1 0.50 0.11 449.4 0.0 398.5-9.1 51.0 6-2.7 12.1-0.7 1.2 0.50 0.12 440.8 2.4 393.1-0.6 47.7 7-4.4 12.0-1.0 1.2 0.50 0.13 498.7 9.6 420.9 6.1 77.8 8 1.2 0.50 0.13 * 1 19991 Main refinancing operations Minimum bid rate 2 19991 Prime rate 1 2ISTAT 3WTO

38 1789 1.5% 1.1% 1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 4.5% 7 8% 20137 919.6 2012 8% 498.7 2012 9.6% 420.9 6.1% 77.8 2. 80% 2013 1,264 80% 6 1,756 7 16% 20137 133.11 15.9% 2.5% 21.6 111.5 7 434.55 5.5% 301.44 3.6% 7 7,370 2013 7 13.57 12.84 7,369.5 7.33 7.04 2,872.2 4.56 4.4 1,587.4 8 0.1% 20138 0.1% 0.7% 8 8 2013 2.0% 0.7% 8 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 8 2.8% 1.7% 2013 1.8% 2013 1.8% 49% 1112 8 2013 2.4% 1.8% 2013

1789 39 1.4% 31.1 1. 8 8 10.4% 20138 10.4% 7 0.7 8 0.93% 8 9.5% 8 9.5% 2.9% 11.7% 8.7% 8 5.8% 10.9% 12.5% 841 39 8.1% 12.3% 11.7% 13.6% 8.0% 13.9% 2.2% 12.8% 10.7% 12.2% 8464 305 4,987 13.4% 9,194 15.6% 21,484 8.2% 3974 5.5% 337 5.7% 126 7.7% 179.6 14.8% 102.3 11.2% 8 98.3% 0.1 9,432 3.5% 8 20.3% 2013 8 262,578 20.3% 7 0.2 8 5,787 32.0% 113,237 16.6% 143,554 23%

40 1789 111,142 17.2% 8,336 10% 91,172 17.9% 11,633 17.1% 8 123,485 18.9% 73,287 23.6% 64,313 22.9% 247,466 21.4% 6,886 9.0% 6,994 5.3% 12,628 10.8% 249,950 20.8% 8 1.6% 20138 1.6% 1.6% 8 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.62 4.2% 2.4% 1.8% 0 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 1.0% 4.5% 3.7% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% 0.5% 8-1.6% 2012 0-1.6 8 2.6% 20138 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 4.7% 1.5% 2.5% 2.7% 8 2.5% 8 4.7% 1.54 7.2% 0.52 6.0% 0.18 5.2% 0.16 4.7% 0.14 7.5% 0.14 4.3% 0.11

1789 41 2-4-1 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 9.1 12.9 4.0-2.3-0.8 2.97 5.04 3,256.0 22.4 2,951.7 21.2 304.3 2003 10.0 17.0 4.3 2.3 1.2 2.97 5.04 4,382.3 34.6 4,127.6 39.8 254.7 2004 10.1 16.2 4.2 6.1 3.9 3.24 5.22 5,933.3 35.4 5,612.3 36.0 321.0 2005 11.3 16.4 4.2 4.9 1.8 3.24 5.22 7,619.5 28.4 6,599.5 17.6 1,020.0 2006 12.7 16.6 4.1 3.0 1.5 3.24 5.58 9,693.2 27.2 7,917.9 20.0 1,775.3 2007 14.2 18.5 4.0 3.1 4.8 3.24 6.57 12,186.4 25.7 9,559.5 20.7 2,626.9 2008 9.6 12.9 4.2 6.9 5.9 1.80 4.86 14,306.9 17.4 11,325.7 18.5 2,981.3 2009 9.2 11.0 4.3-5.4-0.7 1.80 4.86 12,016.1-16.0 10,059.2-11.2 1,956.9 2010 10.4 15.7 4.2 5.5 3.3 2.25 5.35 15,777.5 31.3 13,962.5 38.8 1,815.1 2011 9.2 13.9 4.1 6.0 5.4 2.25 6.10 18,983.8 20.3 17,434.8 24.9 1,549.0 2012 7.8 10.0 4.1-1.7 2.7 2.25 5.60 20,487.1 7.9 18,184.1 4.3 2,303.1 2011 10 13.2 5.0 5.5 2.25 6.10 1,573.5 15.8 1,402.2 28.5 171.3 11 8.9 12.4 4.1 2.7 4.2 2.25 6.10 1,743.9 13.8 1,597.2 21.9 146.6 12 12.8 1.7 4.1 2.25 6.10 1,746.2 13.3 1,581.6 11.8 164.6 2012 1 1.5 0.7 4.5 2.25 6.10 1,498.6-0.6 1,228.5-15.2 270.1 2 8.1 21.3 4.1 0.0 3.2 2.25 6.10 1,144.1 18.3 1,464.1 40.0-320.0 3 11.9-0.3 3.6 2.25 6.10 1,655.8 8.8 1,603.9 5.3 51.8 4 9.3-0.7 3.4 2.25 6.10 1,631.3 4.8 1,445.7 0.1 185.6 5 7.6 9.6 4.1-1.4 3.0 2.25 6.10 1,810.3 15.3 1,628.5 13.0 181.9 6 9.5-2.1 2.2 2.25 5.85 1,798.3 11.1 1,481.8 6.1 316.5 7 9.2-2.9 1.8 2.25 5.60 1,769.2 1.0 1,516.2 4.6 253.0 8 7.4 8.9 4.1-3.5 2.0 2.25 5.60 1,778.7 2.7 1,514.5-2.5 264.2 9 9.2-3.6 1.9 2.25 5.60 1,861.2 9.8 1,586.5 2.4 274.6 10 9.6-2.8 1.7 2.25 5.60 1,755.2 11.5 1,434.5 2.3 320.7 11 7.9 10.1 4.1-2.2 2.0 2.25 5.60 1,793.4 2.8 1,598.6 0.1 194.8 12 10.3-1.9 2.5 2.25 5.60 1,991.1 14.0 1,681.2 6.3 309.9 2013 1-1.6 2.0 2.25 5.60 1,872.8 25.0 1,591.6 29.6 281.2 2 7.7 4.1-1.6 3.2 2.25 5.60 1,393.1 21.8 1,244.4-15.0 148.8 3 8.9-1.9 2.1 2.25 5.60 1,821.2 10.0 1,830.9 14.2-9.7 4 9.3-2.6 2.4 2.25 5.60 1,869.8 14.6 1,687.5 16.7 182.3 5 7.5 9.2 4.1-2.9 2.1 2.25 5.60 1,827.1 0.9 1,623.1-0.3 204.0 6 8.9-2.7 2.7 2.25 5.60 1,742.8-3.1 1,470.3-0.8 272.5 7 9.7-2.3 2.7 2.25 5.60 1,859.7 5.1 1,681.9 10.9 177.8 8 10.4-1.6 2.6 2.25 5.60 1,906.1 7.2 1,620.9 7.0 285.2 * 1 2 3WTO

42 1789 0.4% 0.5% 2.2% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 8.1% 0.4% 1.2% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 3.2% 2.9% 7.2% 1.2% 1.2% 2.7% 2.4% 0.4% 3.3% 2.6% 4.4% 1.3% 0.7% 82.6% 1.1 1.5 8 7.1% 8 2.17 3,527 7.1% 1.17 1,906.1 7.2% 1.00 1,620.9 7% 1,763.2 285.2 8.4% 8 1,923 12.3% 54.5% 2.5 974.9 10.3% 948.1 14.4% 26.8 51.4% 1,143.7 1.7% 32.4% 730.2 2.9% 413.5 0.4% 316.7 7.6% 8 510.3 3.2% 454.0 9.2% 365.8 13.3% 318.2 5.8% 261.7 6.0% 10 77.4 3.6% 8 1,064.5 6.7% 55.9% 471.8 13.9% 320.4 7.6% 186.5

1789 43 12.7% 93.9 16.8% 46.7 0.2% 38.1 4.5% 29.4 2.8% 23 8.6% 15.2 13.6% 7 432.9 8.9% 22.7% 8 6,901 10.6% 118.8 7.7% 2,143 16.5% 765.8 3.4% 637 44.1% 609 1.5% 257 15% 839.9 3.0% 722.6 0.6% 10.2 5.6% 8 14.7% 8 M2 106.12 14.7% 0.2 1.2 (M1) 31.41 9.9% 0.2 5.4 M0 5.49 9.3% 513 8 74.13 14.6% 69.49 14.1% 0.2 2.0 7,113 74 3,387 1,479 1,908 3,732 1,464 2,312 125 8 6.49 3,912 8 7,513 26.2% 58 8 104.14 14.5% 101.46 14.9% 0.3 2.7 8,052 3,008 862 3,441 1,398 8 9.64 2.26 8 4,345 4.7% 100 8 3.44% 3.45% 2. 2013 3.3% 2013

44 1789 1.5%3.5% 2012 1.3% 2013 0.5% 0.3%20137 14.3% 12.9% 15.6%20138 3.3% 2013 GDP2012 3.3% 4.2% 3.1% 6.9% 19.4% 6.2% 7.6% 8.1% 1.4% 2013 2012 2013 1.5%3.5% 0.3% 2013 2012 0.3% 2012 2.4% 2013 2012 0.3% 3.8% 2013 2012 4.9% -15.4% -4.9% -4.8% -4.4% 6.1% +3.7% +2.8% +2.1% +1.5%

1789 45 * 1 2 3WTO 2-4-2 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 2002 1.7-3.1 5.00 2,003.2 5.4 2,080.2 3.2-77.0 2003 3.1-2.6 5.00 2,240.4 11.8 2,325.8 11.8-85.4 2004 8.7 6.9-0.4 5.00 2,594.2 15.8 2,714.6 16.7-120.4 2005 7.4 5.7 0.9 7.75 2,895.1 11.6 2,999.7 10.5-104.6 2006 7.0 2.2 4.8 2.0 7.75 3,226.6 11.5 3,357.5 11.9-130.9 2007 6.5-1.5 4.1 2.0 6.75 3,496.6 8.4 3,707.3 10.4-210.7 2008 2.1-6.7 3.5 4.3 5.00 3,706.5 6.0 3,934.4 6.1-227.9 2009-2.5-8.3 5.2 0.6 5.00 3,297.4-11.0 3,526.9-10.4-229.5 2010 6.8 3.5 4.4 2.3 5.00 4,010.2 21.6 4,420.4 25.3-410.1 2011 4.9 0.7 3.5 5.3 5.00 4,556.6 13.6 5,112.9 15.7-556.3 2012 1.5-0.8 3.3 4.1 5.00 4,933.7 8.3 5,542.2 8.4-608.6 2011 10 3.3 5.8 5.00 442.1 23.6 489.9 27.1-47.8 11 3.0-2.2 3.3 5.7 5.00 416.8 13.9 460.0 17.2-43.2 12 3.3 5.7 5.00 374.4 12.1 440.8 12.6-66.4 2012 1 3.2 6.1 5.00 354.8-4.4 372.4-6.9-17.6 2 0.7-1.6 3.4 4.7 5.00 360.6 22.2 420.4 26.5-59.8 3 3.4 4.9 5.00 376.8 2.6 430.6 2.0-53.8 4 3.3 4.7 5.00 402.3 22.0 449.3 16.1-47.0 5 0.9-3.0 3.2 4.2 5.00 422.4 15.0 478.7 15.6-56.4 6 3.2 3.7 5.00 395.9 1.1 461.2 3.2-65.3 7 3.2 1.7 5.00 402.4 3.1 456.6 4.5-54.2 8 1.5-0.1 3.3 3.8 5.00 432.8 1.5 482.9 5.3-50.0 9 3.3 3.8 5.00 451.5 17.4 497.2 17.0-45.7 10 3.4 3.8 5.00 415.7-6.0 469.2-4.2-53.5 11 2.8 1.3 3.4 3.8 5.00 449.1 7.8 496.4 7.9-47.3 12 3.2 3.8 5.00 469.4 25.4 527.3 19.6-57.9 2013 1 3.4 3.0 5.00 426.9 20.3 469.9 26.2-43.0 2 2.9 0.5 3.4 4.4 5.00 335.3-7.0 381.3-9.3-46.1 3 3.5 3.6 5.00 497.2 32.0 569.5 32.2-72.2 4 3.5 4.1 5.00 444.5 10.5 504.3 12.2-59.8 5 3.3 0.3 3.4 3.9 5.00 441.7 4.6 522.5 9.1-80.7 6 3.3 4.2 5.00 415.3 4.9 508.8 10.3-93.4 7 3.3 6.9 5.00 454.1 12.9 528.0 15.6-73.8 8 3.3 4.5 5.00

46 1789 8 3.3% 20138 3.3% 3 1.5% 20137 375.0 20138 375.1 1,700 20137 13.4 20138 13.6 1,800 5.9 5.8 400 20136 8 着 8 4.5% 20138 2012 4.5% 20137 4.3% 7 4.2% 10.2% 11.0% 6.8%7.3% 4.5%4.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% 3.5% 2.7%2.6% 2.5%3.5% 1.4%2.1% 1.0%1.1% 4.2% 4.3% 7 14.3% 20137 982.1 2012 14.3% 454.1 2012 12.9% 528 15.6 % 73.8 20137 2012

1789 47 2.1%1.8%1.4%0.7% 0.3% 3.9%1.8% 0.2%1.0%2.3% 20137 20127 13.1%1.8%0.6%0.1% 8.6% 10.7%2.3%1.3% 1.5%3.3% 1. 8 BSI 73 1 8 BSI 73 19 BSI77 4 1 BSI8 86 9 87 2 BSI8 86 19 89 BSI8 86 19 88 22.2% 19.8% 8 BSI67 9 BSI70 3 BSI8 77 19 78 BSI8 80 19 82 3 BSI8 79 39 80 1 25.2% 17.0% 11.2% BSI CSI

48 1789 8 ESI 92 8 105 8 CSI 105 CSI 91 2 CSI98 1 CSI99 CSI 109 4 CSI 81 1 CSI93 2 CSI91 1 CSI 98 2 CSI88 CSI92 1 CSI102 CSI99 1 CSI138 5 CSI102 1 CSI116 2 1 1 3.0% 0.1 7 0.3% 7 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.9% 7.5% 2.6% -6.4% -5.5% 0.2% -16.8% -4.7% 15.4% 6.0% 3.6%6.7% 74.2% 1.2 3.3% 3.8% -9.8% -2.4% 0.2% -4.9% -2.1% 5.2% 5.2% 0.8%

1789 49 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 7.0% 6.2% 4.9% 4.2% -4.8% -3.1% -0.1% 2.5% 8.3% 3.8% 0.8% 13.5% 15.3% 0.3 8 43.2 8 2,529.1 43.2 11 40 8 60.0% 0.3 OECD 1564 64.6% 0.3 8 78.3 1.9 3.0% 4 9 7 20 30

50 1789 17.5 12.5% 9.6 5.0% 6.4 3.7% 5.6 4.1% 5.4 6.5% -5.9-1.6% -4.9-4.7% 63.9 7.3 6 5.7 1.8 8-9.6 11.1 3.6 5.3 57.6 0.8 16.3 6.2 8 0.3% 8 107.72010=100 0.3% 1.3% 201211 1.6% 10 1% 7 0.1 1.3% 1.2% 0.6%0.8% 1.5%1.5% 0.3%0.4% 6.9%2.6% 1.3% 0.2% 18.4%12.9% 4.1% 2.4% 3.5%10.5% 8 0.3% 8 0.3% 1.3% 5.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 2.5%10.1% IT 0.2%0.1% 0.2%

1789 51 * 1 2 3WTO 2-5-1 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 7.2 8.0 3.3-0.3 2.8 4.25 6.58 1,624.7 8.0 1,521.3 7.8 103.4 2003 2.8 5.5 3.6 2.2 3.5 3.75 6.20 1,938.2 19.3 1,788.3 17.6 149.9 2004 4.6 10.4 3.7 6.1 3.6 3.25 5.52 2,538.4 31.0 2,244.6 25.5 293.8 2005 4.0 6.3 3.7 2.1 2.8 3.75 5.74 2,844.2 12.0 2,612.4 16.4 231.8 2006 5.2 8.4 3.5 0.9 2.2 4.50 6.19 3,254.6 14.4 3,093.8 18.4 160.8 2007 5.1 6.9 3.3 1.4 2.5 5.00 7.08 3,714.9 14.1 3,568.5 15.3 146.4 2008 2.3 3.4 3.2 8.5 4.7 3.00 6.89 4,220.1 13.6 4,352.7 22.0-132.7 2009 0.3-0.1 3.7-0.2 2.8 2.00 5.81 3,635.3-13.9 3,230.8-25.8 404.5 2010 6.3 16.3 3.7 3.8 2.9 2.50 5.40 4,663.8 28.3 4,252.1 31.6 411.7 2011 3.7 5.9 3.4 6.7 4.0 3.25 5.69 5,554.1 19.1 5,243.5 23.3 310.6 2012 2.0 0.9 3.2 0.7 2.2 2.75 4.84 5,478.7-1.4 5,195.9-0.9 282.9 2011 10 4.2 2.9 5.8 3.6 3.25 5.77 466.4 7.6 427.3 15.5 39.1 11 3.4 3.5 2.9 5.1 4.2 3.25 5.83 460.6 11.6 430.1 11.2 30.5 12 2.3 3.0 4.3 4.2 3.25 5.69 478.1 8.3 454.9 13.6 23.3 2012 1-3.2 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.25 5.79 412.0-7.3 435.2 3.6-23.2 2 2.8 15.3 4.2 3.1 3.1 3.25 5.71 463.2 20.4 451.0 23.9 12.2 3 0.5 3.7 2.4 2.6 3.25 5.74 473.3-1.5 450.5-1.0 22.8 4-0.4 3.5 1.9 2.5 3.25 5.71 461.0-5.0 439.6-0.5 21.4 5 2.4 3.1 3.1 1.0 2.5 3.25 5.66 468.7-1.1 444.8-1.8 23.9 6 0.6 3.2 0.0 2.2 3.25 5.58 471.6 0.9 419.9-6.3 51.7 7-0.3 3.1-0.6 1.5 3.00 5.45 446.7-8.8 419.8-5.2 26.9 8 1.6-2.1 3.0-0.1 1.2 3.00 5.22 430.5-5.9 411.2-9.4 19.3 9-0.8 2.9 0.2 2.0 3.00 5.13 454.1-2.4 425.6-5.9 28.5 10-1.9 2.8-0.5 2.1 2.75 4.98 470.9 1.0 433.8 1.5 37.1 11 1.5 2.1 2.8-0.9 1.6 2.75 4.94 478.1 3.8 433.8 0.9 44.2 12-0.4 2.9-1.2 1.4 2.75 4.84 448.8-6.1 430.7-5.3 18.1 2013 1 7.7 3.4-1.6 1.5 2.75 5.00 456.8 10.9 452.6 4.0 4.2 2 1.5-9.5 4.0-1.6 1.4 2.75 4.91 423.4-8.6 404.0-10.4 19.5 3-2.9 3.5-2.4 1.3 2.75 4.77 473.2 0.0 440.3-2.3 32.9 4 1.5 3.2-2.8 1.2 2.75 4.73 461.8 0.2 437.4-0.5 24.4 5 2.3-1.3 3.0-2.6 1.0 2.50 4.62 483.2 3.1 424.2-4.6 59.0 6-2.5 3.1-1.4 1.0 2.50 4.52 466.9-1.0 407.1-3.0 59.8 7 0.9 3.1-1.0 1.4 2.50 4.60 458.4 2.6 433.0 3.1 25.4 8 3.0-1.3 1.3 2.50 463.8 7.7 415.3 1.0 48.5

52 1789 8 464 415 8 0.7% 0.7% 8 7.7% 464 1.0% 415 49 47.8% 23.8% 21.7% 15.7% 10.8% -6.4% -3.7% 17.9% 12.8% 22.9% 6.6% 0.4% -13.3% -8.9% -5.0% 鑛 -20.0% -10.6% -6.4% -3.7% 29.8% 2.4% 4.5% 7.1% 9.8% -0.4% -4.6% -9.9% -3.6% 0.1% 22.6% 5.7% 49 20122 19 201318 3,687 3,414 274 8 0.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.7% 8 0.7% 5.3% 鑛 1.8% 0.1% 0.2% 2. 2013 7 5

1789 53 1 2013 2.9% MAS 2014 3.5% 2013 2.9% 2.3% 3.8% 1.5% 4% 3.5% 2013 2.5% 2.8% 4% 2% 2014 2.9% 2.1% 7 2.7% EDB 20137 6 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 7 3.6% 13.9% 19% 3.5% 5.4% 1.3%7.4%0.3% 7 7.8% 20137 Retail Sales Index 7.8% 6 4.1% 7 2.5% 6 7 42.7% 6 26.9% 8.4% 5.7% 4.9% 4.6% 7 F&B Services Index 2.1% 6 4.0% 0.2% 3.8%

54 1789 * 1 2 3 4WTO 2-5-2 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 2002 4.2 3.6-0.4 5.35 1,251.8 2.8 1,164.4 0.4 87.4 2003 4.6 4.0 0.5 5.30 1,599.6 27.8 1,362.6 17.0 237.0 2004 9.2 13.9 3.4 1.7 5.30 1,986.3 24.2 1,735.8 27.4 250.5 2005 7.4 9.5 3.1 0.5 5.30 2,296.5 15.6 2,000.5 15.2 296.0 2006 8.6 11.9 2.7 1.0 5.33 2,718.1 18.4 2,387.1 19.3 331.0 2007 9.0 5.9 2.1 2.1 5.33 2,993.0 10.1 2,631.5 10.2 361.4 2008 1.7-4.2 2.3 6.6 5.38 3,381.8 13.0 3,197.8 21.5 184.0 2009-0.8-4.2 3.0 0.6 5.38 2,698.3-20.2 2,457.8-23.1 240.5 2010 14.8 29.7 2.2 2.8 5.38 3,518.7 30.4 3,107.9 26.4 410.8 2011 5.2 7.8 2.0 5.2 5.38 4,095.0 16.4 3,657.7 17.7 437.3 2012 1.3 0.3 1.9 4.6 5.38 4,083.9-0.3 3,797.2 3.8 286.7 2011 10 6.6 5.4 5.38 339.2 3.9 301.5 10.7 37.6 11 3.6-2.3 2.1 5.7 5.38 333.5 9.1 323.9 18.0 9.6 12 25.2 5.5 5.38 344.4 8.5 285.7 4.9 58.8 2012 1-10.0 4.8 5.38 316.2-4.0 306.8 8.7 9.4 2 1.5 12.2 2.0 4.6 5.38 360.0 27.2 316.5 28.9 43.5 3-3.4 5.2 5.38 357.4-1.5 338.7 1.5 18.7 4-1.9 5.4 5.38 344.9 1.2 309.3 1.2 35.7 5 2.3 6.4 2.0 5.0 5.38 345.3 1.1 329.7 3.9 15.6 6 7.7 5.3 5.38 338.1-3.9 322.5 2.5 15.6 7 2.2 4.0 5.38 334.5-3.3 306.9 2.2 27.7 8 0.0-2.8 1.9 3.9 5.38 334.3-9.0 306.5-11.3 27.7 9-3.6 4.7 5.38 337.1-5.1 305.1 1.0 32.1 10-5.0 4.0 5.38 359.8 6.1 331.1 9.8 28.7 11 1.5 2.8 1.8 3.6 5.38 341.1 2.3 325.6 0.5 15.5 12 1.6 4.3 5.38 315.1-8.5 298.5 4.5 16.6 2013 1 0.5 3.6 5.38 336.9 6.5 321.8 4.9 15.0 2 0.2-15.1 1.9 4.9 5.38 293.2-18.6 273.4-13.6 19.8 3-3.4 3.5 5.38 333.2-6.8 296.0-12.6 37.1 4 5.5 1.5 5.38 353.4 2.5 320.2 3.5 33.2 5 3.8 3.1 2.1 1.6 5.38 353.9 2.5 318.5-3.4 35.4 6-4.1 1.8 5.38 332.7-1.6 295.9-8.3 36.9 7 3.0 1.9 5.38 351.6 5.1 323.7 5.5 27.8 8 3.5 2.0 5.38 341.4 2.1 309.9 1.1 31.5

1789 55 8 3.6% 20138 NODX 2012 6.2% 7 6% 8 823 7 0.3% 3.6%NODX 27 20138 9.2% 4.7% 13 14.6%23.5%16.9%17.7% -31.1% -95.8% -54.4% 8 NODX 0%1% NODX 1% 3% 2 8 2.1% NSO 20138 2.1% 20098 1.9% 2013 8 2.8% 1.9%2.7% 7 2.3% NSO 20137 48.4 47.3 2.3% 2013 6 4.1% 201317 304.2 314.9 3.4% 6 4.8% NSO 20136 48.6 51 4.8% 6 6.9 26% 4.5 26% 4.5 45% 296.2 307.9 3.8% 40.6 40.3

56 1789 * 1NSCB 2 3 4WTO 2-5-3 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 3.6 0.4 0.0 2.0 2.7 4.2 9.30 352.1 9.5 392.4 18.7-40.3 2003 5.0-1.3 11.4 8.6 2.3 5.5 9.00 362.3 2.9 404.7 3.1-42.4 2004 6.7-2.5 11.8 12.0 4.8 8.4 9.00 396.8 9.5 440.4 8.8-43.6 2005 4.8 1.0 9.8 9.0 6.6 5.7 9.75 512.5 29.2 474.2 7.7 38.3 2006 5.2-8.5 7.9 11.2 5.5 5.0 9.75 474.1-7.5 537.5 13.3-63.4 2007 6.6-2.7 7.3-0.7 2.9 4.3 7.25 504.7 6.4 577.1 7.4-72.4 2008 4.2 0.3 7.4 4.1 8.2 6.0 8.00 490.3-2.9 602.1 4.3-111.8 2009 1.1-11.9 7.5-1.4 4.2 3.5 6.00 384.4-21.6 458.4-23.9-74.1 2010 7.6 23.2 7.3-4.9 3.8 4.0 6.00 515.0 34.0 584.7 27.5-69.7 2011 3.6 1.1 7.0 1.0 4.7 4.50 6.50 483.1-6.2 641.0 9.6-157.9 2012 6.8 7.7 7.0-0.6 3.2 3.50 5.50 521.0 7.9 585.1-8.7-64.1 2011 10-12.5 6.4 2.6 5.2 4.50 6.50 41.6-13.2 53.6 2.6-12.0 11 3.8-6.4 2.5 4.7 4.50 6.50 33.7-18.8 53.5 2.1-19.9 12-7.8 1.5 4.2 4.50 6.50 34.1-18.9 49.4-5.4-15.3 2012 1 2.5 7.2 1.6 4.0 4.35 6.40 41.2 3.0 54.4-2.7-13.2 2 6.5 8.1 1.9 2.7 4.25 6.25 44.3 12.8 53.4 4.4-9.1 3 11.7 1.7 2.6 4.00 6.00 43.3-0.7 57.0-2.2-13.7 4 4.8 6.9 1.4 3.0 4.00 6.00 46.4 7.6 50.7-12.6-4.3 5 6.3-3.4 1.4 3.0 4.00 6.00 49.3 19.7 57.1 9.9-7.7 6 10.7-1.7 2.9 4.00 6.00 43.1 4.3 54.1 13.3-10.9 7 3.8 7.0-1.5 3.2 3.99 5.95 47.3 6.0 52.6-0.7-5.4 8 7.3 2.4-0.1 3.8 3.75 5.75 38.1-8.7 54.9 1.1-16.8 9 9.8-1.8 3.7 3.75 5.75 48.1 23.5 56.3 3.8-8.2 10 20.6 6.8-3.0 3.2 3.73 5.70 44.1 6.1 55.8 4.2-11.7 11 7.1 11.7-3.4 2.8 3.50 5.50 36.1 7.3 54.8 2.4-18.7 12 10.5-4.0 3.0 3.50 5.50 39.7 16.6 56.0 13.5-16.3 2013 1 10.0 7.1-9.8 3.1 3.50 5.50 40.1-2.7 50.0-8.0-9.9 2 7.7 5.1-9.6 3.4 3.50 5.50 37.4-15.6 49.5-7.4-12.1 3-1.1-10.0 3.2 3.50 5.50 43.3 0.1 52.1-8.5-8.8 4 8.9 7.5-9.6 2.6 3.50 5.50 41.2-11.1 54.0 6.6-12.8 5 7.5 20.6-9.3 2.6 3.50 5.50 48.9-0.8 55.2-3.3-6.3 6 8.2-7.2 2.7 3.50 5.50 44.9 4.1 51.0-5.7-6.1 7 12.0 7.3-6.0 2.5 3.50 5.50 48.4 2.3 57.6 9.4-9.2 8 2.1 3.50 5.50

1789 57 Arsenio 2013 12% 10% 4.4% 7 6.6% 20137 OFW 19.3 6.6% 2013 1 8% 7 7 2013 126.3 5.8% POEA 2013 49.5 37% 7 7.3% 20137 7.3% 300 7.5% 7.6% 3 2013 3.8%4.0% 2013 4.5% 3.8%4% FPO 73% 20136 4.8% 4.5% 2013 2014 2013 2013 1% 4% 4% 5% 4.5% 2013

58 1789 4.2% 8 590 21.3% 2013 9 69.3% 2 3,500 7 4.5% 2013 7 4.5% 2.3% 6 3.54% 3.3% 6 0.9%7 7 91.9 7 91.9 6 93.1 20137 7 3 97.2 6 98.7 7 8 1.6% 20138 8 1.6% 8 46 2013 2.5% 1.1% 7 1.5% 20137 190.6 1.5% 3

1789 59 2-5-4 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 2002 5.3 9.8 2.4 0.7 1.59 6.75 660.9 4.8 633.5 4.6 27.4 2003 7.1 12.9 2.2 1.8 1.03 5.75 781.1 18.2 743.5 17.4 37.6 2004 6.3 11.7 2.1 2.8 1.79 5.75 949.4 21.5 934.8 25.7 14.6 2005 4.6 9.7 1.9 4.5 3.80 6.75 1,093.6 15.2 1,176.2 25.8-82.6 2006 5.1 5.9 1.5 4.6 4.85 7.75 1,297.2 18.6 1,287.7 9.5 9.5 2007 5.0 8.5 1.4 2.2 3.20 7.10 1,538.7 18.6 1,399.7 8.7 139.0 2008 2.5 4.5 1.4 5.5 2.71 7.00 1,777.8 15.5 1,792.2 28.0-14.5 2009-2.3-6.9 1.5-0.9 1.00 6.13 1,524.2-14.3 1,337.1-25.4 187.1 2010 7.8 14.2 1.1 3.3 1.80 6.38 1,933.1 26.8 1,829.2 36.8 103.8 2011 0.1-8.5 0.7 3.8 3.15 7.50 2,225.8 15.1 2,287.9 25.1-62.1 2012 6.5 2.2 0.7 3.0 2.69 7.38 2,292.4 3.0 2,499.9 9.3-207.5 2011 10-32.8 0.6 4.2 3.38 7.50 168.9-0.5 180.9 20.7-11.9 11-8.9-45.4 0.8 4.2 3.42 7.50 154.1-11.6 168.7-2.4-14.6 12-24.1 0.4 3.5 3.15 7.50 159.6-6.1 195.5 21.6-36.0 2012 1-14.5 0.8 3.4 3.10 7.38 157.4-2.6 168.6-4.2-11.3 2 0.4-3.3 0.7 3.3 2.90 7.38 190.4 3.7 185.1 8.2 5.3 3-3.0 0.7 3.4 2.88 7.38 198.7-4.9 249.4 28.1-50.7 4-0.6 1.0 2.5 2.91 7.38 169.0-2.1 200.8 9.4-31.8 5 4.4 5.4 0.9 2.5 2.92 7.38 209.3 10.2 229.4 19.6-20.1 6-9.9 0.7 2.6 2.94 7.38 197.7-2.3 204.0 3.0-6.3 7-5.7 0.6 2.7 2.94 7.38 193.5-5.4 211.2 12.8-17.7 8 3.1-11.3 0.6 2.7 2.92 7.38 197.0-7.2 210.0-7.8-13.0 9-15.8 0.6 3.4 2.92 7.38 207.8 0.2 198.7-6.6 9.1 10 35.9 0.6 3.3 2.83 7.38 195.2 15.6 223.6 23.6-28.4 11 19.1 81.3 0.4 2.7 2.69 7.38 195.5 26.9 211.3 25.2-15.8 12 22.7 0.5 3.6 2.69 7.38 181.0 13.5 207.8 6.3-26.8 2013 1 10.1 0.8 3.4 2.70 7.38 182.7 16.1 237.6 40.9-54.9 2 5.4-1.3 0.6 3.2 2.71 7.38 179.3-5.8 194.9 5.3-15.6 3 0.7 0.7 2.7 2.70 7.38 207.7 4.5 211.4-15.2-3.7 4-3.9 0.9 2.4 2.70 7.38 174.1 3.0 215.5 7.3-41.4 5 2.8-7.5 0.8 2.3 2.68 7.38 198.3-5.2 221.3-3.5-23.0 6-3.2 0.5 2.3 2.48 7.38 191.0-3.4 210.1 3.0-19.1 7-4.5 0.9 2.0 2.47 7.38 190.6-1.5 213.5 1.1-22.8 8 1.6 2.45 7.38 * 1 2 3 4WTO

60 1789 4% 13.9% 3.1% 8.8% 201317 1,323.7 0.6% 7 213.5 1.1% 12.5% 9.4% 15.4% 3.6% 2013 1 7 3.8% 1,504.2 7 22.8 17 180.5 KBANK 18 QE 4 4.3% 2013 4.3% 4.2% 5%6% 4.5%5% 5 4.1% 4.2% 7 7.6% 20137 2012 7.6% 15.4% 6.2% 5.4% 14 5.8% 9.2% 8.8% 4.3%

1789 61 6 7 1.9% 2.5% 4.3% 1.4% 7 1 7 2.7% 5.6% 2.6% 2.4% 7 3.8% 20137 543 ( 165.5 ) 2012 3.8% 4.9% 116 64 31.7% 19.5% 12.9% 9.4% 8.8% 17 3,546.5 2.3% 7 103.8 0.8% 0.04%7 27.2 9.2% 0.7% 17 190.6 7.9% 7 4.5% 7 607.3 ( 182.8 ) 4.5% 578.7 6.2% 28.6 20.9% 7 4.5% 7% 2 5 41.6% 21.5% 17.5% 12.9% 7.1% 11.2% 42.2%10.5%6.8%6.0% 24.7%15.4% 10.9% 17.5% 7

62 1789 * 1 2 3WTO 2-5-5 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 2002 4.7 6.4 940.6 6.9 797.6 8.2 143.0 2003 9.2 6.0 1,047.1 11.3 833.0 4.4 214.1 2004 11.3 6.0 1,266.5 21.0 1,051.7 26.3 214.8 2005 3.6 6.2 1,416.3 11.8 1,143.2 8.7 273.1 2006 5.6 4.8 3.6 6.7 1,606.8 13.4 1,311.5 14.7 295.2 2007 6.3 2.3 2.0 6.7 1,762.1 9.7 1,469.8 12.1 292.3 2008 4.8 0.8 5.4 6.5 1,995.2 13.2 1,569.0 6.7 426.2 2009-1.5-7.6 3.6 0.6 5.51 1,574.3-21.1 1,238.3-21.1 336.0 2010 7.2 7.2 3.2 1.7 6.27 1,986.1 26.2 1,646.2 32.9 339.9 2011 5.1 1.2 3.1 3.2 6.53 2,280.9 14.8 1,874.7 13.9 406.1 2012 5.6 4.4 3.0 1.7 6.53 2,273.9-0.3 1,966.2 4.9 307.7 2011 10 2.7 3.0 3.4 6.54 201.7 13.9 155.8 0.4 45.9 11 5.3 1.9 3.1 3.3 6.54 180.2 6.6 150.2 7.0 30.0 12 2.0 3.1 3.0 6.53 192.1 5.0 165.8 9.3 26.3 2012 1 0.6 3.0 2.7 6.53 176.9-1.0 148.8 1.4 28.1 2 5.1 9.2 3.2 2.2 6.53 188.1 14.3 153.1 18.8 35.0 3 2.9 2.9 2.1 6.53 203.0-1.4 168.6 1.1 34.3 4 3.5 3.0 1.9 6.53 188.6-2.6 164.0 5.7 24.5 5 5.6 7.9 3.0 1.7 6.53 189.4 3.1 174.6 12.9 14.8 6 4.4 3.0 1.6 6.53 191.8-1.6 162.9-2.0 28.9 7 2.3 3.1 1.4 6.53 183.4-7.9 172.0 3.5 11.4 8 5.3 0.1 2.7 1.4 6.53 179.5-8.6 156.8-1.6 22.7 9 5.0 3.2 1.3 6.53 195.3 2.7 174.3 9.7 21.0 10 6.7 3.2 1.3 6.53 200.4-0.6 169.1 8.5 31.3 11 6.5 7.3 2.9 1.3 6.53 190.0 5.5 161.5 7.5 28.6 12 3.5 3.3 1.2 6.53 187.4-2.5 160.4-3.3 27.0 2013 1 5.0 3.3 1.3 6.53 187.5 6.0 176.8 18.8 10.8 2 4.1-5.3 3.0 1.5 6.53 169.4-10.0 142.9-6.7 26.5 3-0.1 3.3 1.6 6.53 193.1-4.8 177.4 5.2 15.7 4 4.7 3.0 1.7 6.53 183.0-3.0 179.6 9.5 3.4 5 4.3 3.3 3.3 1.8 6.53 184.9-2.4 175.4 0.5 9.5 6 3.7 2.8 1.8 6.53 180.2-6.0 166.5 2.2 13.7 7 7.6 3.0 2.0 6.53 190.3 3.8 181.4 5.4 9.0 8 1.9

1789 63 7 208.2 34.3% 52.47 46.8 39.7 36.5 25.4 24.0 20.2 17.2 13.9 84.8 82.5 71.4 48.6 35.2 31.5 7 161.1 63.5 52.3 5 100.2 75.2 48.6 43.6 33.3 2013 7 7,696.4 0.74% 3,985.4 2.6% 3,711.0 4.7% 274.4 49.8% 8 1.9% 20138 107.0 1.9% 2.0% 8 2% 93 8 4.1% 3.6% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 18 106.5% 1.7% 5 2013 6.4% 2013 6.5%7%

64 1789 6.4% 2013 7.1% 6.1% 2013 8 8.8% CPI8 8.8% 20091 4.5% 7 4.4% 18 7.9% 2013 9% 20138 7 6.1% 20137 151.1 6.1% 174.2 6.5% 23 18 2013 7 1,061.8 6.1% 1,118.3 0.9% 56.5 76 2013 7 117.7 95.4 90.3 174.4 114.9 67.5 56.7

1789 65 * 1 2 3WTO 2-5-6 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 2002 4.5 3.3 9.1 18.25 571.6 1.5 312.9 1.1 258.7 2003 4.8 5.5 9.5 15.07 610.6 6.8 325.5 4.0 285.1 2004 5.0 3.3 9.9 13.41 715.8 17.2 465.2 42.9 250.6 2005 5.7 1.3 11.2 16.23 856.6 19.7 577.0 24.0 279.6 2006 5.5-1.6 10.3 15.07 1,035.3 20.9 806.6 39.8 228.7 2007 6.3 5.6 9.1 13.00 1,180.1 14.0 931.0 15.4 249.1 2008 6.0 3.0 8.1 9.8 15.22 1,396.1 18.3 1,276.0 37.1 120.0 2009 4.6 1.3 7.4 4.8 13.69 1,196.5-14.3 945.5-25.9 251.0 2010 6.2 4.4 7.1 5.1 12.83 1,580.7 32.1 1,353.2 43.1 227.5 2011 6.5 4.1 6.6 5.4 12.16 2,007.9 27.0 1,762.0 30.2 245.9 2012 6.2 4.1 6.1 4.3 11.49 1,885.0-6.1 1,903.8 8.0-18.9 2011 10 6.8 4.4 12.36 170.9 19.7 154.5 29.7 16.4 11 6.5-0.4 4.2 12.31 166.1 10.4 155.1 21.3 11.1 12 2.0 3.8 12.16 170.0 3.0 159.0 13.8 11.0 2012 1 1.1 3.7 12.14 156.8 4.8 151.5 22.7 5.3 2 6.3 7.7 6.3 3.6 12.02 157.0 10.9 158.1 31.3-1.1 3-3.2 4.0 12.01 169.7 1.2 162.2 12.7 7.5 4 1.2 4.5 11.86 158.6-3.2 164.7 10.7-6.1 5 6.4 2.5 4.5 11.78 163.7-8.1 169.0 14.0-5.3 6 2.4 4.5 11.79 153.0-13.1 161.4 3.6-8.4 7 1.8 4.6 11.78 156.5-7.5 158.2-0.1-1.7 8 6.2-2.3 6.1 4.6 11.73 143.5-22.6 137.6-6.5 5.9 9 5.3 4.3 11.70 155.5-8.2 152.3 3.3 3.2 10 9.8 4.6 11.68 154.8-9.4 172.9 11.9-18.0 11 6.1 12.6 4.3 11.61 159.2-4.2 161.2 4.0-2.1 12 10.9 4.3 11.49 156.6-7.9 154.7-2.7 1.8 2013 1 10.9 4.6 11.49 153.5-2.1 157.1 3.7-3.6 2 6.0 6.3 5.9 5.3 11.45 145.7-7.2 152.2-3.7-6.5 3 9.9 5.9 11.44 153.1-9.8 151.7-6.5 1.4 4 10.4 5.6 11.44 150.9-4.9 162.3-1.5-11.4 5 5.8 5.7 5.5 11.46 158.7-3.1 165.6-2.0-6.9 6 2.5 5.9 11.41 147.2-3.8 161.0-0.3-13.8 7 3.2 8.6 11.66 154.7-1.1 176.3 11.4-21.6 8 8.8

66 1789 7 11% 25.3%10.5%7.9% 8 8 2013823 920 1 9 2013823 1,377.50 828 919 823 920 918 1,301.00 828 1,419.50 920 1,349.25 28.25 1823 9 20 1 2013823 920 1 98.57 99.38 97.30100.22 1 0.6419 0.6242 0.62330.6465 1 0.7467 0.7395 0.73930.7622 7 7.3% 2012 8 GDP 2.5% 824 33.1 96 29.2 32 20064 Fed 9 8 16.9 8

1789 67 CPI 0.1% 911 9 19 828 2% 9 99 2 8IFO 107.5 8 PMI 26 PMI 95 Fed GDP 0.7% 828 2016 8 3.26 4.2%20092 7 2.2%

68 1789 3-1 1.30 1.15 1.00 0.85 0.70 0.55 107 104 101 98 95 92 0.40 89 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 0.8 % 3-2 3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 731 0~0.25% 94 1.00% Fed731 200812 0~0.25% 450 400 6.5% 1~2 2.5% 0~0.25%

1789 69 0.50% 0.5% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 7.25% 2.50% 0.1% William Dudley924 6.5% Fed Janet Yellen 20141 Ben S. Bernanke Fed Bank of Canada94 1.00% 脚 Stephen Poloz 6 Mark Carney 2 2 95 17 0.50% 1.00%0.00% European Parliament LTRO 95 0.5% 3,750 87 7% 7% 2015 RBNZ912 2.50% 2014 RBA86 2.50% 18 93 2.50% 821

70 1789 2.5% 829 7.00% 912 7.25% 912 2.50% 88 9 CPI 0.5-1.0% CPI 0~0.1% 60~70 823 9 20 28.25 1,301.00 1,419.50 9 20 1,349.25 2013823 1,377.50 828 919 823 920 918 1,301.00 828 1,419.50 9 20 1,349.25 28.25 7 39.4 49 9 9 GDP 9 910 9

1789 71 3-3 1520 1480 1440 1400 1360 1320 1280 1240 1200 8/12 8/15 8/18 8/21 8/24 8/27 8/30 9/2 9/5 9/8 9/11 9/14 9/17 9/20 8 9 19 EIA910 Short-Term Energy Outlook 8 OPEC 20111 8 270 210 OPEC 20091 OPEC OPEC 2014 2013 3,000 2,940 2013 110 2014 120 OECD OECD 2013 2014 20 OECD EIA 2013 42 2014 43 2003 2012 51 EIA OPEC 2013

72 1789 2014 160 140 OPEC 2013 2014 140 110 OPEC 2013 2014 80 20 OPEC 8 20138 (1) 7 (2) 6 102.9 1990 (3) (4) 2013 BP 13 (5) Fed 9 (6) (7) BP Royal Dutch Shell PLC biofuels (8) EIAWTI 2013 93.25 94.65 (9) OPEC 2014 100 1.2% 9,070 2010 (10) BHP Billiton 6 (11) WTI 2013 18.0% Brent 2.5% 9 20139 (1) OPEC 8 (2) 300 3.5% (3) 8 2,611 2,143 (4) NYMEX

1789 73 63.9 3,410 5 20122 (5) OPEC 2013 2.5 (6) (7) 40.0% 62 160 (8) EI20139 OMI 7 7,820 8 100 90 8 2 123 1.3% 9,240 7 30.5 2.5% 6 OECD 128 OECD 5.5 13 45.5 2013 1.2% 1.6% 2014 1.3% OPEC 8 40 8OPEC 3,046 7

74 1789 4-1 OPEC * % 2006 61.04 65.17 66.11 61.52 2007 69.03 72.51 72.27 68.42 2008 93.27 96.99 99.67 93.61 2009 61.00 61.48 61.64 61.68 2010 77.38 79.53 79.41 78.14 2011 107.44 111.33 95.08 106.18 2012 109.50 111.67 94.19 109.09 201208 109.52 113.48 94.10 108.64 110.67 113.09 94.61 09 10 108.36 111.69 89.50 111.17 108.79 11 106.86 109.17 86.74 107.34 106.55 109.48 88.25 106.39 109.28 113.07 94.78 108.00 12 201301 02 112.75 116.34 95.29 111.31 03 106.44 108.41 92.88 105.46 04 101.05 102.30 92.00 101.75 05 100.65 102.66 94.66 100.42 06 101.03 102.95 95.74 100.41 07 104.45 107.94 104.51 103.52 08 107.52 111.26 106.50 106.87 20138 % 2.94 3.08 1.90 3.24 20138 % -1.83-1.96 13.18-1.63 *Saharan Blend Minas Iran Heavy Basra Light Kuwait Export Es Sider Bonny Light Qatar Marine ArabLight Murban BCF17 11 Energy Intelligence Group,Oil Market Intelligence, September 2013. 4-1 130.00 125.00 120.00 OPEC 115.00 110.00 105.00 100.00 95.00 90.00 85.00 80.00 75.00 70.00 65.00 08/2011 12/2011 04/2012 08/2012 12/2012 04/2013 08/2013 /

1789 75 4-2 / 2013 2012 2012 2012 2013 6 7 8 8 OECD 45.8 46.8 46.7 46.8 45.6 46.0 45.6 OECD 46.0 45.5 45.7 44.4 43.6 44.0 44.8 91.8 92.3 92.4 91.2 89.2 90.0 90.4 OPEC 30.4 30.9 30.5 31.5 31.4 31.0 30.5 OPEC6.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.2 OPEC 53.3 53.7 54.1 51.3 51.5 51.8 53.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 92.4 93.4 93.4 91.4 91.3 91.3 92.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.1 1.3 1.6 OECD 2,650 2,646 2,659 2,721 4,881 4,868 4,869 4,806 4-1 4-3 / 2013 6 7 8 a 1OPEC 9,382 9,774 9,930 11,800 9,265 2,598 2,591 2,553 3,500 3,429 3,034 2,980 3,230 3,250 3,230 2,720 2,751 2,735 3,200 2,543 2,836 2,877 2,812 2,900 2,427 721 722 714 750 789 520 520 520 680 na 2,400 2,391 2,415 2,800 2,278 1,471 1,610 1,592 2,500 2,004 1,286 1,242 597 1,650 597 1,207 1,210 1,198 1,225 1,195 1,728 1,686 1,624 2,000 1,769 524 530 537 545 473 OPEC 30,428 30,885 30,456 36,800 30,000 OPEC 6,126 6,186 6,228 OPEC 36,713 37,226 36,844 2 OPEC 7,375 7,415 7,673 3,115 3,182 3,307 2,518 2,482 2,513 2,099 2,048 2,196 1,352 1,600 1,493 10,550 10,537 10,516 1,360 1,385 1,425 4,244 4,043 4,055 804 806 802 799 784 801 18,525 18,959 19,128 OPEC 52,741 53,241 53,909 89,453 90,466 90,753 a. 30 3 b. 2007111 OPEC 20061020 120 / 200721 2007111 2008910 20081231 OPEC c.na 4-1