(002070) 350104 8.25-9.07 2006 9 11 / 2700 3.84 / 9 21 ( ) 10800/2700 : 10 12 % 2004 285 27.0% 38 28.5% 0.35 18.8% 2005 309 8.5% 42 9.1% 0.39 19.3% 2006E 352 13.8% 52 25.8% 0.49 20.5% + 2007E 495 40.5% 70 34.2% 0.65 21.0% 2008E 780 57.7% 98 39.9% 0.91 21.0% 12 2000 B /H 20 : (8621) 63295888455 tangyiheng@sw108.com (8621) 63295888369 hanweijun@sw108.com 2005 30 60 29.8 180 14 200 16 2005 30 99 862163295888 http://www.sw108.com 06-08 EPS 0.490.65 0.91 9.70-10.67 15 8.25-9.07
1. 4 1.1 4 1.2 4 2. 5 2.1 6 2.2 7 2.3 8 2.4 9 2.5 10 2.6 12 3. 13 4. 14 5. 15 1
1... 4 2 50... 6 3... 7 4... 7 5:... 8 6:... 8 7:... 9 8... 11 9... 11 10... 12 11... 14 1... 3 2... 3 3: IPO... 5 4 12... 5 5... 6 6... 10 7 10... 11 8... 12 9... 13 10... 15 11... 16 2
1 A 060908 05EPS 06EPS E 07EPS E 05PE 06PE 07PE E E 600987 32580 12580 3.4 0.10 0.12 0.17 33.66 28.33 20.00 600370 15826 6910 7.14 0.44 0.44 0.46 16.16 16.23 15.52 600448 31980 16830 2.54 0.03 0.10 0.11 96.67 25.40 23.09 002034 8112 3525 7.17 0.38 0.40 0.43 18.87 17.93 16.67 5.06 0.24 0.27 0.29 41.34 21.97 18.82 002070 10800 2700 0.39 0.485 0.651 WIND 2 A 060908 05EPS 06EPS E 07EPS E 05PE 06PE 07PE E E 002034 8112 3525 7.17 0.38 0.40 0.43 18.87 17.93 16.67 002003 7478 3492 12.87 0.47 0.52 0.66 27.38 24.75 19.50 002029 11050 4225 11.31 0.32 0.40 0.51 35.34 28.28 22.18 002036 11236 5468 8.15 0.28 0.32 0.44 29.11 25.47 18.52 002044 12500 5850 4.37 0.18 0.20 0.22 24.28 21.85 19.86 8.77 0.33 0.37 0.45 27.00 23.65 19.35 002070 10800 2700 0.39 0.485 0.651 WIND 7 G G G 5 2006 PE 21.97 2006 2022 9.70-10.67 15 8.25-9.07 3
1. 1.1 2002 2 97 100 95 40 1 95% 40% 100% 97.14% 7.69% 10.00% 15.38% 11.54% 24.62% 30.77% 1.2 66.92% 50.19% ( 2700 A ) 4
3:IPO ( ) (%) ( ) (%) ( ) 2492 30.77 2492 23.08 A 1994 24.62 1994 18.46 A 1246 15.38 1246 11.54 A 935 11.54 935 8.65 A 810 10.00 810 7.50 A 623 7.69 623 5.77 A A 2700 25.00 8100 100 10800 100 : 4 12 2. 12 2000 100% / / 97-95% /3-5% / // / / 100% / / 95% /5% PA 95% /5% PU / 100% /100% 100% /100% / / / / 55% /45% / / / / / / / / / 40%-50% / / 60%-50% / / / / / / 5
2.1 2 50 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006H 50 5 2003A 2004A 2005A 1H2006 1048 1346 1409 747 1041 1323 1406 718 11218 14319 15640 7863 50.0% 50.2% 50.6% 51.6% 431 523 542 261 429 522 540 265 4237 5615 5884 2864 18.9% 19.7% 19.0% 18.8% 171 290 325 157 167 286 324 160 2921 5035 6236 2818 13.0% 17.7% 20.2% 18.5% 688 460 465 239 646 528 466 258 4074 3538 3182 1689 18.1% 12.4% 10.3% 11.1% 6
2.2 3 2005 1778 90 4 8% 4% 10% 55% 9% 14% 1991-1997 1998 2000 5 18.02 22.49 06 22.25 54.37 7
5: 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006H 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% YOY YOY 2.3 6: CEIC 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 04-06 04-08 04-10 04-12 05-02 05-04 05-06 05-08 05-10 05-12 06-02 06-04 06-06 2000 20 2006 18.1 13.3 4.8 17.6 26.2 24.4 13.5 12.7 8
7: 50 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 00 00-03 00-09 01-03 01-09 02-03 02-09 03-03 03-09 04-03 04-09 05-03 05-09 06-03 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% YOY 18 2000 36 2040 50 40 19 20 2008 2000 2200 25 2.4 5.3% 2.4 8.1 30 60 2005 29.8 9
2.5 2001 10 44 TEXWORLD 6 2002/2003 PNC 2003 2003/2004 / 2004 / 2004/2005 2005 2005/2006 2006 2006/2007 2007 / 180 14 200 16 2005 30 12 2000 6s6s 120s120s 2003 2006 762 988 1251 574 3.4 3.5 4.0 3.8 0.3 10 10
7 10 售 7568 89907 77237 66334 30942 8.9 12.2 10.4 9.5 19.8 3.1 4.7 8.4 4.9 13.5 2.1 3.4 5.9 2.9 13.5 5.2 7.1 9.8 3.3 22.5 0.3 0.80 0.65 0.70 4.04 5.34 1640 30 05 XLA C/NN/CPNC 4 8 9 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006H 0% -5% -10% 2003 2004 2005 2006H 1 66.2% 2 3 (4) 11
88.9 2.6 OEM ODM 8 10 ( ) 1995 12
Jeep Levi StraussHaggar Clothing Inc. Louis RapheDewhrist Joseph Roisman Perry Ellis InternationalNewportSportswearFrcports 3. 2700 70 2400 1200 3600 2800 9 19739 1.5 5.26 3600 49740 4225 21.40% 1500 1.5 3.31 12000 311 20.70% 15845 1.5 5.64 2800 31967 3173 20.00% 37084 93707 7708 13
2006 6 30 3938 3311 5669 1631 2007 6800 2800 200809 06 11 4. 66.92 50.19 2700 A 211 51.9% 14
50 35 10 35 5. 1200608 10 2003 2004 2005 1H 2006 2006E 2007E 2008E 2338 2619 2741 1403 3200 4300 6500 2282 2659 2736 1401 3200 4300 6500 / 9.8 10.7 11.3 10.9 11.0 11.5 12.0 16.83% 19.09% 19.76% 20.98% 21.0% 21.5% 21.5% 2 32007 60 4 1 2008 6800 4000 10800 2008 60 2 40 15
11 2003 2004 2005 2006H 2006E 2007E 2008E 225 285 309 152 352 495 780 187 231 248 120 278 388 612 0 1 1 1 2 2 4 37 54 60 31 72 104 164 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 8 5 11 20 35 7 12 12 4 14 22 35 3 7 8 6 12 11 8 24 32 32 16 35 51 86 0 0 0 2 5 4 2 6 7 10 5 11 15 15 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 30 38 42 24 52 70 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 38 42 24 52 70 98 0.28 0.35 0.39 0.23 0.49 0.65 0.91 10800 16
6 (Buy) 20 (Outperform) 5 20 (Neutral) 5 5 (Underperform) 5 6, (Overweight) (Neutral) (underweight) 300 17