国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期

2013 1 1980 樊 *** 超 1980 1 2 3 * 100871 ** 121

国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期 1 1984 1982 2 3 4 5 1980 1980 1 2004 6 15 2005 572 2003 1 34 2 1949 2001 2003 368 1993 5 2010 3 34 2003 2 59 3 50 2000 450 451 4 2003 282 285 2001 160 162 2000 1 87 88 2004 4 66 5 284 88 122

1980 年代中国外交战略调整的缘起 1970 1 1969 3 15 2 4 1 1974 4 11 1 1977 11 1 1 2 1969 3 15 2010 355 356 123

国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期 1 2 1972 9 1973 3 1975 4 2 5 1980 6 7 8 1 1969 4 28 359 2 1974 12 396 3 1995 612 613 4 1975 1 5 2004 2 5 1975 2 8 9 11 6 1975 1997 2008 15 7 1975 1997 1076 1077 8 1975 1997 317 124

1980 年代中国外交战略调整的缘起 1977 9 14 1 9 25 2 28 3 4 1977 10 7 5 10 26 6 1977 7 1970 1978 11 3 1 1975 1997 200 201 1977 9 21 6842 4 2 1975 1997 205 3 208 4 205 5 217 6 229 7 1977 12 28 80 125

国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期 1 11 2 1979 1 6 3 4 5 1977 9 6 1978 1 4 7 8 1 1978 11 5 7252 2 1978 11 13 5 Zbigniew Brzezinski Power and Principle Memoirs of the National Security Adviser 1977-1981 New York Farrar Straus Giroux 1983 p. 409 3 1975 1997 467 4 287 5 205 6 207 208 1980 8 28 9 9 1909 1992 2011 123 124 7 1975 1997 254 8 1978 12 17 1 126

1980 年代中国外交战略调整的缘起 1 2 1979 2 17 3 4 5 6 7 4 3 8 7 18 9 9 18 1 1979 2 1 1 2 Jimmy Carter Keeping Faith Toronto New York Bantam Books 1983 pp. 208-209. 3 1979 5 7 1 4 1978 11 13 5 1979 2 26 5 5 1979 3 19 7386 2 8 2009 191 6 Zbigniew Brzezinski Power and Principle Memoirs of the National Security Adviser 1977-1981 pp. 412-413. 7 1980 10 15 177 8 1979 4 4 1 9 2011 10 130 127

国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期 1 1979 1980 1 6 2 1 20 3 1979 10 4 3 10 5 7 6 1979 4 5 1980 1 5 7 1 24 3 8 3 17 19 9 1 1975 1997 556 557 2 1980 1 7 1 3 1980 1 21 1 4 2010 31 21 5 1909 1992 108 6 120 126 7 1980 1 10 4 8 Foreign Affairs Foreign affairs Chronology 1978-1989 New York Foreign affairs 1990 p. 83. 9 1980 3 21 6 128

1980 年代中国外交战略调整的缘起 1 1980 9 2 1980 10 15 3 10 4 1981 1 5 3 3 6 1980 1 S. Mahmud Ali US-China Cold War Collaboration 1971-1989 London New York Routledge 2005 pp. 175-177. 2 1980 9 27 7942 4 1980 12 24 8029 1 1980 1980 12 29 8034 1 3 1975 1997 1998 171 4 173 174 5 1975 1997 708 6 186 129

国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期 1 2 1980 8 28 3 1981 1981 1 11 4 1982 3 4 5 1 2005 172 2 1988 232 1975 1997 507 508 3 1980 8 28 1 4 2008 133 134 144 1982 1 11 8407 1 5 1909 1992 163 130

1980 年代中国外交战略调整的缘起 1 1 2 2 1981 1 4 3 4 1981 2 25 5 6 1982 7 8 1982 1 1 1 134 2 1980 11 24 1 3 1994 376 377 4 1982 8 20 1 5 1909 1992 135 6 1975 1997 716 725 748 7 1998 257 8 131

国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期 1 4 2 1982 2 14 3 1982 3 24 1 2 3 4 4 24 25 5 3 26 3 24 1 1982 1 2 1 2 1975 1997 819 3 Foreign Affairs Foreign Affairs Chronology 1978-1989 p. 146. 4 1982 3 24 1982 3 27 8481 1 5 1975 1997 806 2003 4 132

1980 年代中国外交战略调整的缘起 1 3 30 2 7 7 8 3 10 1977 8 3 11 1 4 1979 5 1980 6 1 1982 3 27 1 2 1982 4 1 8486 1 2007 358 3 1975 1997 835 6 4 1975 1997 170 5 2010 212 6 131 133

国际政治研究 2013 年第 1 期 1 1 134 150

When China's developing country status was steadfast China and the Group of 77 shared common values and interests and therefore could cooperate with each other effectively. However after China's developing country status becomes an open question the foundation for China and the G77 to cooperate common interests have been gradually weakened even leading to the end of the cooperation. In this sense the turning point of China's power status has also become the critical juncture for the development of China-G77 cooperation framework. The study reveals that the 2008 financial crisis was such a turning point not only for China's power status but also for China-G77 cooperation which turned from close to loose. Although the cooperation has not dissipated completely it will face more challenges ahead and will unlikely rebound back to the pre-2008 level. Statistical Analysis on Correlations of Inter-stateWars during the Spring- Autumn and Warring States Period Wang Rihua and Qi Haixia 103 During the Spring-Autumn and Warring States Period in acient China inter-state wars broke out more than a thousand times. We have constructed an Inter-State War database on the basis of existing historical documents and archaeological materials. Our statistical analysis has found that in the short run consanguinity relationships helped with interstate peace and friendship but aninverse relationship would take shape in the long run. Furthermore there are no correlations or causality between the notion of same culture same race and inter-state wars. Lastly the history of inter-state wars during the Spring-Autumn and Warring States Period demonstrates that a multipolar system is more conducive to peace than a bipolar one. The Origin of China's Adjustments of Diplomatic Strategy in the 1980s Fan Chao 121 The drawbacks of the One Line strategy were the fundamental reasons for the adjustments of China's diplomatic strategy. The implementation of the One Line strategy exposed the Soviet Union's strategic dilemma and enhanced China's confidence to deal with the Soviet strategic pressure which served as a precondition for China's later strategic adjustments. However the idea of allying with the U. S. against the Soviet Union gave the impression that China was asking for favors from the U. S. leading to the Reagan Administration's retrogression on thetaiwan issue. In order to break the One Line strategy's constraints on China's U. S. policy China brought this strategy to an end during the negotiations of the August 17 Communiqué in 1982 which in turn resulted in the adjustments of China's diplomatic strategy. The adjustments changed China's policies vis-à-vis the U. S. the Soviet Union as well as the Third World the status of U. S. -China strategic cooperation was downgraded the door of Sino-Soviet rapprochement was opened and relations with the Third World were reexamined.