China s Low Carbon Future: Energy Transition and 2 pathway Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute, China Energy in Growing Economies, Oxford, Oct.2, 2017 1 ERI, China
全球能源活动和水泥生产 CO2 排放量 Global CO2 emission from energy and cement manufacture
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Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC) Energy demand and supply Price/investment Economic impact Medium/long-term analysis IPAC-SGM IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL Environment industry Pollutant emission Medium/long-term analys Energy demand and supply Price/investment Medium/long-term analysis Technology development Environment impact Technology policy Region analysis Medium/short analysis Energy demand and supply Technology policy IPAC-TIMER IPAC-Emission IPAC-AIM/GLobal IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport) IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm IPAC/AIM-Local AIM-air IPAC/Gains-Asia Climate Model IPAC-AIM/tech IPAC-health Energy demand and suppl Full range emission Price, resource, technolog Medium-long term analysis Economic impact Short term forecast/ energy early warning Medium/short term analysis Technology assessment Detailed technology flow ERI, China
CO2 Emission 14 12 Billion tco2 10 8 6 4 BAU LC ELC 2 度 1 2 度 2 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1.5 度
Keyword: Transition mitigation to reach some climate change targets 15 Category I (< 400 ppm CO 2 ) 15 Category II (< 400-440 ppm CO 2 ) 15 Category III (< 440-485 ppm CO 2 ) 10 10 10 Emissions (GtC) 5 0 5 0 5 0 without neg. emissions with neg. emissions N=27-5 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 N=19-5 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 N=76-5 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
PM 2.5 Concentration is much higher than standard PM2.5 concentration of 74 cities in 2013 PM2.5 annual concentration from 2013-2015 If WHO recommended standard, Emission from energy activities will be 0 35 Ø 2013 年京津冀地区所有城市 PM 2.5 年均浓度均超标, 区域内 PM 2.5 年平均浓度达 106µg/m 3, 虽 2014 2015 年空气质量有所改善, 但仍大幅超过国家空气质量二级标准
We Need Rapid Transition:Put that into 13 th Five Year Plan Primary Energy Demand Mtce Primary Energy Demand in China, 2 scenario A 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Year Bio-Diesel Ethonal Biomass Power Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro N.Gas Oil Coal
14000 Power Generation, 2 Scenario A 12000 TWh 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Bio Solar Wind Nulcear Hydro N.Gas Oil fired Coal fired 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Final Energy Demand, 2 degree scenario Mtce 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Year Electricity Thermal N.Gas Oil Town Gas Coke Coal 10
GDP in China, IPAC output 3000000 2500000 GDP 亿元 2000000 1500000 1000000 第三产业增加值第二产业增加值第一产业增加值 500000 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年份
GDP by sectors 亿元 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 GDP 部门结构 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年份 煤气的生产和供应业蒸汽热水生产供应业电力生产供应业其他工业仪器仪表文化办公用机械电气机械及器材 电子及通信设备制造业交通运输设备制造业普通机械 专用设备制造业金属制品业有色金属黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业非金属矿物制品业橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业化学纤维制造业医药制造业化学原料及制品制造业炼焦业石油加工印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业造纸及纸制品业木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业 家具制造业服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造纺织业烟草加工业食品饮料加工 制造业非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业有色金属矿采选业黑色金属矿采选业天然气开采业石油煤炭采选业 农业 12
Investment by industrial sectors 亿元 工业分部门投资 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年份 建筑业 自来水的生产和供应业 煤气的生产和供应业 蒸汽热水生产供应业 电力生产供应业 其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械 电气机械及器材 电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业 普通机械 专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属 黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业 非金属矿物制品业 橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业 化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业 石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业 木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业 家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业 烟草加工业 食品饮料加工 制造业 非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业 有色金属矿采选业 黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油 13
Products output in major sectors Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 Steel Million ton 355 610 570 440 360 Cement Million ton 1060 1600 1600 1200 900 Glass Million cases 399 650 690 670 580 Copper Million ton 2.6 7 7 6.5 4.6 Ammonia Million ton 8.51 16 16 15 12 Ethylene Million ton 5.1 7.2 7 6.5 5.5 Soda Ash Million ton 14.67 23 24.5 23.5 22 Casutic Million ton 12.64 24 25 25 24 Paper Million ton 62.05 110 115 120 120 FertilizerMillion ton 52.2 61 61 61 61 Aluminum Million ton 7.56 34 36 36 33 Paper Million ton 46.3 50 50 50 45 Calcium camillion ton 8.5 10 8 7 4 14
Energy demand by sector, 1995-2010 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 1995 20000 2000 2005 10000 2006 2007 0 2008 农 林 牧 渔业 采掘业煤炭开采和洗选业石油和天然气开采业黑色金属矿采选业有色金属矿采选业非金属矿采选业其他采矿业 农副食品加工业食品制造业饮料制造业烟草制品业纺织业纺织服装 鞋 帽制造业皮革 毛皮 羽毛 ( 绒 ) 及其制品业木材加工及木 竹 藤 棕 草制品业 家具制造业造纸及纸制品业印刷业和记录媒介的复制文教体育用品制造业石油加工 炼焦及核燃料加工业化学原料及化学制品制造业医药制造业化学纤维制造业橡胶制品业塑料制品业非金属矿物制品业黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业有色金属冶炼及压延加工业金属制品业通用设备制造业专用设备制造业交通运输设备制造业电气机械及器材制造业通信设备 计算机及其他电子设备制造业 仪器仪表及文化 办公用机械制造业 工艺品及其他制造业废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业电力 煤气及水生产和供应业电力 热力的生产和供应业燃气生产和供应业水的生产和供应业建筑业交通运输 仓储和邮政业批发 零售业和住宿 餐饮业其他行业生活消费 2009 2010
Low Carbon House in 2050: comfortable and energy saving Solar Energy Eco-Life style Solar PV (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池 转换效率接近30% 减少10-20% 能源需求 Planting on top Solar energy for hot water and space heating LED 普及率: 20-60% 减少50%照明需求 普及率 100% 目前 6% Energy monitor system High insulation system Electric Appliance) 减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率70% Super High Efficiency Air-Con COP =8, 普及率 100% Standby energy use 降低1/3 普及率100% High efficiency lighting Fuel cell Heat pump 普及率 0-20% COP 5 普及率 30-70% Public information Public consumption change High efficiency electric appliance Reduce energy use, and higher life level 5
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四 影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析 n 4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors 3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs
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By 2016, There are 260million electric bike in China 22
Transport Energy Demand: 2 degree scenario Mtce 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Year Bio-Diesel Ethonal Electricity N.Gas Oil
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2015: 43.18GW 25
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+24.5GW from Jan. to June 2017 27
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NASA images show stunning progress of China s vast 850 MW Longyangxia Solar Park 2013 2017 30
GDP by Type of Cities 6000000 5000000 10^8Yuan 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 Eco-based City iindustrial City Integrated Development City City with Tertiary Sector Oriented 0 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 31
CO2 Emission by Type of City Mt 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Eco-based City iindustrial City Integrated Development City City with Tertiary Sector Oriented 32
16.0 CO2 Emission Per Capita t-co2 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 City with Tertiary Sector Oriented Integrated Development City iindustrial City Eco-based City 0.0 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 33
MtCO2 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 CO2 Emission in Beijing 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 34
MtSO2 1000ton 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 SO2 Emission 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Black Carbon Emission in China 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 600.0 2050 BaU LC ELC BaU LowCarbon Mton Mt NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 Other 6.0 Power generation 4.0 2.0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1.0 Mercury Emission 0.0 PM2.5 Emission 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Other 2.0 Power generation 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 ton 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 Other Power generation 100.0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 35
Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all 7.1 By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services 7.2 By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 7.3 By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency 7.a By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including renewable energy, energy efficiency and advanced and cleaner fossil-fuel technology, and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology 7.b By 2030, expand infrastructure and upgrade technology for supplying modern and sustainable energy services for all in developing countries, in particular least developed countries, small island developing States and landlocked developing countries, in accordance with their respective programmes of support
Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all 7.1.1 Percentage of population with access to electricity 7.1.2 Percentage of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology 7.2.1 Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption 7.3.1 Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and gross domestic product (GDP) 7.a.1 Mobilized amount of United States dollars per year starting in 2020 accountable towards the $100 billion commitment
China: Where are we for Goal 7 7.1.1 Percentage of population with access to electricity 2015: 100% household with electricity supply 7.1.2 Percentage of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology 2015: natural gas penetration rate in cities reached 94.17%, Nearly 0 in rural 7.2.1 Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption 11.2% in 2016(5% based on IEA standard), 13.6% for non-fossil 14.7% if solar heater and other renewable energy included 7.3.1 Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and gross domestic product (GDP) 268toe/million US$, 23% lower than that in 2010
China: What we are doing and did Retrofit for electricity grid in rural area, finished Made electricity price lower for rural area, finished Cleaner energy use including electricity and natural gas in rural area, due to air pollution control, under going poverty alleviation by solar PV development in rural area, launched in 2015, under going
A 2 degree Asia: A good way to understand the global target Scenario Analysis: Japan Korea China India Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Nepal Vietnam Cambodia Laos Philippine 42
Low Carbon/Green Strategy for China s Oversea Investment ODI FDI China s FDI and ODI,1995-2014,US$100million 43
INDC+/NDC for China Peak CO2 emission in 2030, try to peak earlier peak 2020-2022 60% to 65% carbon intensity reduction by 2030 with comparison with 2005 70%-75% carbon intensity 20% non-fossil energy in TPE 25%, based on NEA s picture 44
China s MCS: a proposal CO2 Emission 14 12 Billion tco2 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1.5 度 BAU LC ELC 2 度 1 2 度 2 MCS Targets
Emission allowances in 2030 (change from 2010) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% NAM WEU EIT JPAUNZ LAM SSA MNA SAS EAS PAS Capability (13) Equality (17) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (4) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (13) Equality (17) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (4) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (13) Equality (17) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (3) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (13) Equality (17) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (3) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (13) Equality (16) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (3) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (12) Equality (15) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (2) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (13) Equality (15) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (0) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (13) Equality (16) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (4) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (13) Equality (16) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (4) Staged (10) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (22) Capability (11) Equality (14) Res cap need (4) Equal cumulative per cap (3) Staged (8) Cost effectiveness (13) Baseline (16) 排放分担,2030 和 2010 年相比, 十个地区 Figure 2. Emission allowances by allocation category for Cat 1, i.e. 425-475 ppmco2e, in 2030 relative to 2010 emissions (min, 20th percentile, 80th percentile, max). Number of studies in brackets. GHG emissions (all gases and sectors) in GtCO 2 e in 1990 and 2010 were OECD90 13.4, 14.2, EIT 8.4, 5.6, ASIA 10.7, 19.9, MAF 3.0, 6.2, LAM 3.3, 3.8.
Emission allowances in 2050 (change from 2010) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% NAM WEU EIT JPAUNZ LAM SSA MNA SAS EAS PAS Cat 0 (400ppm) (10) Cat 1 (450ppm) (43) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (42) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (10) Cat 1 (450ppm) (43) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (42) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (10) Cat 1 (450ppm) (42) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (42) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (10) Cat 1 (450ppm) (42) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (42) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (8) Cat 1 (450ppm) (41) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (40) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (7) Cat 1 (450ppm) (38) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (39) Cat 4 (650ppm) (27) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (7) Cat 1 (450ppm) (37) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (40) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (10) Cat 1 (450ppm) (42) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (42) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (10) Cat 1 (450ppm) (42) Cat 2 (500ppm) (6) Cat 3 (550ppm) (42) Cat 4 (650ppm) (28) Baseline (22) Cat 0 (400ppm) (6) Cat 1 (450ppm) (37) Cat 2 (500ppm) (4) Cat 3 (550ppm) (17) Cat 4 (650ppm) (13) Baseline (17) 排放分担,2050 和 2010 年相比, 十个地区 Figure 3. Emission allowances for various concentration levels in 2050 relative to 2010 emissions (min, 20th percentile, 80th percentile, max). Number of studies in brackets. GHG emissions (all gases and sectors) in GtCO 2 e in 1990 and 2010 were OECD90 13.4, 14.2, EIT 8.4, 5.6, ASIA 10.7, 19.9, MAF 3.0, 6.2, LAM 3.3, 3.8