85% NCEP CFS 10 CFS CFS BP BP BP ~ 15 d CFS BP r - 1 r CFS 2. 1 CFS 10% 50% 3 d CFS Cli

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瑭缨玮管
5 years ago
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1 CFS BP doi /j. cnki. wrahe TV A Abandoned water risk ratio control-based reservoir pre-discharge control method GUO Tuanting 1 CAO Lu 2 LIAO Shengli 3 1. Huadian Electric Power Research Institute Hangzhou Zhejiang China 2. Beijing Zhongshui Runze Consulting Co. Ltd. Beijing China 3. Hydropower and Water Information Research Institute Dalian University of Technology Dalian Liaoning China Abstract Aiming at the phenomena of the abandoned water which are almost occur in flood season from the hydropower stations with limited regulating capacities a study on the reservoir pre-discharge control is carried out in combination with the mid-term runoff forecast concerned. At first a model directly related to the forcast and risk is established for quantifying the reservoir a- bandoned water risk and then the decision-making for reservoir control at the moment that facing the abandonment of water is adjusted in accordance with the daily runoff forecast information by taking the risk range as the basis for control of the pre-discharge amplitude. The result from the actual control made by taking Puding Hydropower Station as a case shows that the abandoned water risk ratio control-based reservoir pre-discharg control method mentioned above can not only reduce the power generation loss caused by abandoned water but also can ensure the water level of the reservoir at the end of the flood season. Key words CFS Climate Forecast System forecast BP neural network mid-term runoff forecast forecast period abandoned water risk ratio reservoir pre-discharge W ater Resources and Hydropower Engineering V ol. 47 No. 4

2 85% NCEP CFS 10 CFS CFS BP BP BP ~ 15 d CFS BP r - 1 r CFS 2. 1 CFS 10% 50% 3 d CFS Climate Forecast System 5 d 7 d Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ CFS 1 m 3 /s NCEP

1 m 3 /s 3 d 5 d 7 d Ⅰ - 50 100-50 200 Ⅱ Ⅲ 100 730 730 + 200 1 200-50

4 2005 ~ 2014 6 ~ 10 3 d 5 d 7 d 2 ~ 4 3 5 d 2 3 d 3 d 5 d 7 d 80% Ⅰ 20%

3 1 m 3 /s 3 d 5 d 7 d Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ~ ~ 10 3 d 5 d 7 d 2 ~ d 2 3 d 3 d 5 d 7 d 80% Ⅰ 20% Ⅱ 10% 15% Ⅲ 10% 4 7 d BP 80% θ D V t Q t i = 3 Δ j p K ij 1 j θ i j p ij V t i j K j i D Q t j Δ j j = 1 90

4 Step1 Step5 p ij Step2 K j V t + 1 Step1 Step3 2 5 Δ j Step MW θ m m 4 6 ~ m m m 3 6 ~ 8 9 ~ % 6 ~ Step1 V t Z t D i t N t Q t θ t θ t > 2 θ max Q t < Q max Step2 Q t Step4 Step2 λ Q t Q max θ 6-8 = 0. 1 θ 9-10 = 0. 1 l Q l θ l θ max Q l θ Step4 6-8 = 0. 3 θ 9-10 = 0. 3 Q max Step3 Step m 3 /s MW 1 d D θ 6-8 = 0. 1 θ 9-10 = 0. 3 Step3 Q max Step Step4 6 ~ 8 /d / kw h / m 3 /m

5 9 3 ~ 10 / / m 3 / kw h /m /d ~ ~ ~ ~ d J m 3 5 J 7. 0% kw h 6 forecast error J 8 J J J J J Dirk Schwanenberg Fernando Mainardi Fan Steffi Naumann et al. Short-Term reservoir optimization for flood mitigation under meteorological and hydrological forecast uncertainty J. Water Resources Management GFS J J Zhang YanPing Wang GuoLi Peng Yong et al. Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood Science China Technological Sciences CFS BP J. BP 92

13-15 Lagrange 3. 1 h t + hu + hv = 0 1 x y hu + t x hu gh 2 ( ) + y huv = - gh z 0 ( + x u u 2 2 槡 + v + W C ) 2 x + fhv + z h x 2hv u ( t x )

13-15 Lagrange 3. 1 h t + hu + hv = 0 1 x y hu + t x hu gh 2 ( ) + y huv = - gh z 0 ( + x u u 2 2 槡 + v + W C ) 2 x + fhv + z h x 2hv u ( t x ) 1 2 2 1. 310016 2. 310020 doi 10. 13928 /j. cnki. wrahe. 2015. 09. 024 TV131. 3 A 1000-0860 2015 09-0100-05 Study on oil-film drifting track from sudden oil-spilling accident within Qiantangjiang River