Microsoft PowerPoint - Berlin-Global NDC Conference simplified version

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琏壑卢
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1 Low-carbon Path of China: economic and energy composition transition scenario of 2030 Mao Xianqiang Center for Global Environmental Policy, Beijing Normal University School of Environment, Beijing Normal University

2 China s INDC Commitment In 2009, China committed that, by 2020, CO 2 emission per unit GDP will be reduced by 40-50% compared with 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil fuel energy in total will be improved to 15% In 2015, China announced the 2030 target: CO 2 emission will peak around 2030, CO 2 emission per unit GDP will be reduced by 60-65% compared with 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil fuel energy in total will be improved to 20% Sourced from : 强化应对气候变化行动中国国家自主贡献 ( 全文 )

3 How well have China s Recent Five-Year Plans Been Implemented? XianQiang Mao( ), Ji Zhou, and Gabriel Corsetti. How Well Have China s Recent Five-Year Plans Been Implemented for Energy Conservation and Air Pollution Control? Environmental Science & Technology. 2014, 48,

Carbon emission: a projection to the 2050 250 200 182 191,5 201 179,5 2005=100 150 100 50 0 158 158 135 121 103 105 108 110 112 112 112 111,5 111 100 98 94 89 81 84,5 80 84 68 71,5 59 63 51 51 43 36

4 Carbon emission: a projection to the , ,5 2005= , , , , Population Energy use per unit of GDP CO2 emission per unit of energy consumption CO2 emission from energy consumption Quoted from: 傅莎, 邹骥, 刘林蔚对中国国家自主贡献的几点评论, 国家气候战略中心

5 Air pollution reduction is more urgent to China as an important sustainable development goal which has large Co-benefit of Carbon emission reduction

6 China s Recent Actions National Plan on Coping with Climate Change ( ) 13th Five-year Plan of Ecological and Environmental Protection Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction Scheme for the13th Five-year Plan National carbon market to be initiated this year Low-carbon city pilot program Local level plans and programs Etc.

7 Air quality target set for 2030 emissions reductions required to reach the national air quality improvement targets Pollutants SO 2 NO x PM 2.5 NH 3 VOC CO 2 reduction ratio (taking 2012 as 1) 51% 64% 53% 0% 21% N/A Local pollutant emission targets are based on report of Chinese Academy of Engineer: 郝吉明, 尹伟伦, 岑可法. 中国大气 PM 2.5 污染防治策略与技术途径 [M]. 北京 : 科学出版社,2016.

8 Scenario Design for economic development and policy intervention GDP growth technical progress Stronger Policy intervention Emission intensity reduction 13 th Five Year Plan ( ): 6.5% 14 th Five Year Plan ( ): 5.0% 15 th Five Year Plan ( ): 3.5% Primary factors of production that drive economic development: investment, labor and overall labor productivity (1.5% increase per year). Economic instruments + Command and Control (standard setting, ban, etc.) Emission intensity will decrease by 30% in 2030 compare with that in 2012.

9 7,0 Sector scale in 2030 (taking 2012 as base 1) 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 Key controlling industries 重点压减行业 2,0 1,0 0,0 炼焦煤炭采选钢铁水泥玻璃其他非金属制品黑色金属矿采选建筑有色金属金属制品非金属矿采选通用专用设备农产品畜牧产品化学工业电气机械及器材其他运输设备农林牧渔服务渔产品林产品精炼石油木材加工纺织业铁路运输有色金属矿采选汽车行业电力热力电子设备制造其他制造业印刷居民服务住宿和餐饮综合技术服务生态保护和环境治理开采辅助服务邮政业其他运输及仓储造纸租赁和商务服务服装鞋食品烟草皮革毛皮卫生社会保障和社会福利业水上运输水的生产和供应业道路运输研究与试验房地产业航空运输教育事业水利和公共设施公共管理和社会组织石油和天然气开采批发和零售贸易业燃气生产和供应业信息与计算机服务金融业管道运输文化体育和娱乐废品废料

10 Low carbon transformation path in the near future ( ) Change rates of industry sector scale relative to 2012: Shrinkage sectors: Coking -33% coal -29% iron and steel -28% cement -26% Glass -19% other nonmetal mineral product :-14% Etc. Expansion sectors: cultural and entertainment +418% finance +285% information & software service +279% chemical refinery % nonferrous metals +8% Etc.

11 Low carbon transformation path ( ) 10,10% 7,83% 6,13% 44,60% 45,30% 52,01% 40,17% 60,34% 33,53% primary industry secondary industry tertiary industry primary industry secondary industry tertiary industry primary industry secondary industry tertiary industry (2012) (2020) (2030) Macro Economic Structure

12 consumption of fossil energy in 2030 (10,000 ton) coal coke Natural gas (10 8 m 3 ) fuel oil gasoline kerosene diesel

13 use of clean energy in kwh Hydropower nuclear power Wind power Photovoltaic power

14 4.02 Billion tce Energy structure 4.74 Billion tce 0,75% 0,78% 0,03% 6,49% 0,68% 2,41% 5,51% 1,12% 3,82% 2,01% 5,86% 5,34% 8,98% 43,61% 8,87% 68,50% 4,57% 0,93% 4,22% 1,52% 15,97% 4,91% coal coke gas fuel oil gasoline kerosene diesel hydropower nuclear power wind power Photovoltaic power coal coke gas fuel oil gasoline kerosene diesel hydropower nuclear power wind power Photovoltaic power

15 Pollutants and CO 2 emissions in China SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC CO (Unit:10 4 Tonne;CO 2 :10 7 Tonne)

16 CO 2 emissions from Mt CO 2 emission is expected to peak before

17 CO 2 emissions in key sectors(2030) Mt Coal Coking Chemical Steel electricity & heat production transportation

18 2030 Emissions Reductions ratio compared with 2012 SO 2 NO x PM 2.5 NH 3 VOC CO emissions reductions ratio compared with 2012 emissions reductions target to reach the air quality standards 60% 68% 54% 2% 37% 9% 51% 64% 53% 0% 21% N/A

19 Fulfilling of NDC commitment of China Carbon Emission per unit GDP will be reduced by 52-55% in 2020, and will be reduced by 73-75% by CO 2 emission per unit (ton CO 2 /10,000RMB) was 3.79 (2005), its is expected to be : (2020) and (2030) Proportion of non-fossil fuel energy will reach 22%.

20 Long term consideration? Quoted from: 傅莎, 邹骥, 刘林蔚对中国国家自主贡献的几点评论, 国家气候战略中心

21 Some key points China s economic and energy composition transition in the near future (2030) shall be driven by its low-carbon target and low-pollution targets together. low-carbon target and low-pollution target shall be integrated, because, achieving one single target can bring about co-benefits, while an integrated GHG and air pollutant co-reduction strategy will maximize co-benefits and minimize costs, which are desirable domestically and globally

22 Some key points to fullfil INDC commitment, more radical/ambitious policy countermeasures are required, such as supply side reform, structural adjustment, standard setting, among other command and control instruments, in association with market based instruments. longer term and Mid-century scenarios/goals will be deeply affected by the near future scenario, which will essentially shape the direction of long term projection, and thus near future scenario is decisive to the future of the future.

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust 2011 2 1 1 2 3 4 1. 100101 2. 100124 3. 100039 4. 650092 - - - 3 GDP U 20-30 60% 10% TK01 A 1002-9753 2011 02-0042 - 10 Analysis on Character and Potential of Energy Saving and Carbon Reducing by Structure