Microsoft PowerPoint - B-3_Jiang [互換モード]

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Microsoft PowerPoint - B-3_Jiang [互換モード]"

戌尤
5 years ago
Views:

1 China s Low Carbon Future Kejun JIANG Kjiang@eri.org.cn Energy Research Institute, China 1 ERI, China

2 Content Scenarios: how to reach enhanced low carbon scenario Cost/benefit Co-benefit Technology roadmap Policy roadmap 2

3 Mt C CO2 Emission in China Baseline Policy ELC 3

4 CO2 emission by regions, IPACresults,4ppmCO2,45ppmCO2e, per capita convergence 7,, 6,, 千吨碳 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Annex 1 Countries Major Developing Countries Other developing Countries Economy in Transition China Middle East 年份 4

5 Investment by industrial sectors 亿元建筑业自来水的生产和供应业煤气的生产和供应业蒸汽热水生产供应业电力生产供应业其他工业仪器仪表文化办公用机械电气机械及器材电子及通信设备制造业交通运输设备制造业普通机械专用设备制造业金属制品业有色金属黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业非金属矿物制品业橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业化学纤维制造业医药制造业 8 化学原料及制品制造业工业分部门投资年份炼焦业石油加工印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业造纸及纸制品业木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业家具制造业服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造纺织业烟草加工业食品饮料加工制造业非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业有色金属矿采选业黑色金属矿采选业天然气开采业石油 5

6 Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC Unit Steel Million ton Cement Million ton Glass Million cases Copper Million ton Ammonia Million ton Ethylene tyeemillion ton Soda Ash Million ton Casutic Million ton Paper Million ton FertilizerMillion ton Aluminum Million ton Paper Million ton Calcium camillion ton

7 Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario Unit Steel Kgce/t Cement Kgce/t Glass Kgce/Weight Cases Brick Kgce/ 万块 Ammonia Kgce/t Ethylene Kgce/t Soda Ash Kgce/t Casutic Kgce/t Calcium carbide Kgce/t Copper Kgce/t Aluminum kwh/t Paper Kgce/t Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh

8 太阳能利用光伏电池 (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池, 转换效率接近 3% 太阳热利用普及率 : 2-6% ( 目前 6%) 能源检测系统 ( 家用电器 ) 超高效空调生态生活教育减少 1-2% 能源需求 25 年的低碳住宅舒适和节能屋顶植被高效照明如 LED 照明减少 5% 照明需求, 普及率 1% 高效绝热减少 6% 采暖需求, 普及率 7% COP =8, 普及率 1% 待机电源耗电降低 1/3, 普及率 1% 向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为低碳消费热泵采暖 COP=5 普及率 3-7% 燃料电池普及率 -2% 高效家用电器减少能源需求, 支持舒适和安全生活方式 8 5

9 Transport, Low carbon scenario Family car ownership, per 1HH Urban Rural Family car annual travel distance, km Average engin size of family cars, litter Fuel efficiency of car, L/1km Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % Share of Biofuel, % 1.1% 1% 1.3% 4.1% 7.7% 7% 12% 13% Share of electric car, % %.12% 3.2% 6.8% 12.5% 19.8% Share of fuel cell car, % % %.8% 1.6% 4.7% 7.9% 9

10 CCS future 12 % IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC US-Critical Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal Year 1

11 Investment in Energy Industry in China Energy Expenditures in China 1^8Yuan Year 3 BaU 25 HLC HELC LLC 1^8Yuan Year BaU HLC HELC Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC GDP Loss, % 1^8 Yuan % 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% 65ppm 55ppm 45ppm Per Capita Carbon Intensity Industry Transport Building Total Year.% 1.%

12 12

13 MtSO2 1ton SO2 Emission Black Carbon Emission in China BaU LC ELC BaU LowCarbon Mton Mt NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario Other 6. Power generation PM2.5 Emission Other 2. Power generation 1. Mercury Emission ton Other Power generation

14 A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today: Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 225 Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or avoided in 225. The reference point is the business as usual mix in 225. The horizontal axis includes sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency, reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment. Power Sector (this size corresponds to 4 billion kwh) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Power Sector (this size corresponds to 4 billion kwh) by comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 2 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 2 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario and BaU Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Imports Positive Climate Characteristics Nuclear Nuclear Clean Coal (IGCC) with CO 2 Capture Ultra-Super Critical Industry Efficiency Solar PV Hydro y Wind Biodiesel CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery Building Efficiency Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standard d Biomass Power Cellulosic Ethanol Plug-In Hybrids Reduce Energy Security Corn Ethanol Business As Usual In 225 Oil Imports Increase Energy Security For specific details on the assumptions underlying the options on this chart, go to Revised 7/1/28 Gas-to-Liquids Expanded Domestic Oil Production Coal-to-Liquids (no carbon capture) Coal-to-Liquids (with carbon capture) Negative Climate Characteristics 14

15 7 Hydro (dam) Water consumption and greenhouse gas emission of energy generation technologies Water consumption n (m 3 /MWh) 5 Close loop nuclear 3 Geothermal Close loop solar thermal Close loop USC with CCS Close loop IGCC with CCS Open loop IGCC with Open loop nuclear CCS 1 Open loop USC with CCS Dry solar thermal Close loop SC with CCS Dry SC with CCS Open loop SC with CCS Close loop NGCC with CCS Open loop NGCC with CCS This size = 1, MWh/yr Open loop IGCC Close loop NGCC Open loop NGCC Close loop USC Close loop IGCC Open loop USC 5, MWh/yr Close loop SC Wind Dry USC with CCS Dry NGCC with CCS Dry NGCC (run of river) Hydro 5 Solar PV Dry subcritical 1 Greenhouse gas emission (Kg CO 2 /MWh) Dry USC Open loop SC Energy efficiency for buildings Dry SC 1,, MWh/yr Close loop subcritical Open loop subcritical Top 1 companies energy efficiency program 3 15

16 28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China No. Sector Technology Description Note 1 Industry High energy High efficiency furnace, Nearly in technology efficiency kiln, waste heat recovery market equipment system, high efficiency process technologies, advanced electric motor 2 New manufacture process technology for cement and steel 3 CCS In cement, steel making, refinery, ethylene manufacture 4 Transport Super high efficiency Advanced diesel hybrid diesel vehicle engine 5 Electric car 6 Fuel cell car 7 High efficiency 3% higher energy aircraft efficiency 8 Bio fuel aircraft 9 Building Super high efficiency With COP>7 air conditioner 1 LED lighting 11 In house renewable Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot energy system water and space heating 12 Heat pumps Mature 13 High isolation Mature building 14 High efficiency Mature electric appliance before Power IGCC/Poly With efficiency above 55% generation Generation 16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 6% 17 On shore Wind Mature 18 Off shore wind Mature before Solar PV 2 Solar Thermal 21 4 th Generation Nuclear 22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65% 23 Biomass IGCC 24 CCS in power generation 25 Alternative fuels Second generation bio ethanol 26 Bio diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels 27 Grid Smart grid 28 Circulating Recycle, reuse, tecnologies reducing material use 16

17 Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS Government Planning Subsidy Start COP

18 18

19 CO2 Emission from energy use: Jilin City 3. Guangdong 1t C BaU Low Carbon Policy Potential for CCS CO2 Emission in Hong Kong Shanghai MtCO Year BaU Low Carbon Enhanced Low Carbon Low Carbon Leader Scenario 19

20 Shenyang City CO2 emission from energy activities 能源活动 CO2 排放量 MtCO BaU 低碳情景人均能源活动 CO2 排放量 12 1 tco2 8 6 BaU 低碳情景

21 Beijing CO2 emission from energy activities 北京能源活动 CO2 排放量百万吨碳基准情景政策情景强化低碳情景年份 21

ｽﾗｲﾄﾞﾀｲﾄﾙなし

ｽﾗｲﾄﾞﾀｲﾄﾙなし China s Energy and CO 2 Emission Scenario by 2050: A Policy Roadmap Energy Research Institute, China ERI, China Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC) Energy demand and supply Price/investment