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1 Integrated Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China 2050 年中国综合能源与排放情景 Low Carbon, Low pollution 低碳低污染 Jiang Kejun 姜克隽 Energy Research Institute 能源研究所 The 5th Air Quality Management City Workshop of CAI-Asia China Network, Beijing 第五届中国城市空气质量管理研讨会

2 北京

3 北京

4 水污染

5 Low Carbon/Green Future: our vision 低碳 / 绿色未来 : 我们的愿景 Low carbon/ghg emission 低碳 / 温室气体排放 Comfortable life/high welfare 舒适的生活 / 高福利 Green/eco-friendly development 绿色 / 经济友好型发展 Well developed transport system with focus on easy walking/bicycle 发达的交通系统, 便捷的步行和自行车出行 Environment friendly life style 环境友好型生活方式 Promote economy development 促进经济发展 5

6 Scenario Framework 情景框架 Bad effects on energy security 对能源安全的负面影响 Good effects on Climate Change 对气候变化的正面影响 High GDP low carbon scenario 高 GDP 低碳情景 High GDP Enhanced Low Carbon Scenario 高 GDP 低碳情景 ( 增强 ) Low GDP Low Carbon Scenario 低 GDP 低碳情景 Good effects on energy security 对能源安全的正面影响 BaU Scenario 基准线情景 Bad effects on Climate Change 对气候变化的负面影响

7 Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC) 中国综合政策模型框架 (IPAC) Energy demand and supply Price/investment Economic impact Medium/long-term analysis 能源需求与供给价格 / 投资经济影响中期 / 长期分析 Energy demand and supply Price/investment Medium/long-term analysis 能源需求与供给价格 / 投资中期 / 长期分析 Technology development Environment impact Technology policy 技术开发环境影响技术政策 Region analysis Medium/short analysis Energy demand and supply Technology policy 区域分析中期 / 短期分析能源需求与供给技术政策 IPAC-SGM IPAC-TIMER IPAC-Emission 排放 IPAC/Tech(Power 电力 /Transport 交通 ) IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm IPAC/AIM-Local AIM-air 空气 IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL IPAC/Gains-Asia IPAC-AIM/tech IPAC-health 健康 Climate Model 气候模型 Environment industry Pollutant emission Medium/long-term analysis 环境产业污染物排放中期 / 长期分析 Energy demand and supply Full range emission Price, resource, technology Medium-long term analysis Economic impact 能源需求与供给全排放价格资源技术中长期分析经济影响 Short term forecast/ energy early warning 短期预测 / 能源早期预警 Medium/short term analysis Technology assessment Detailed technology flow 中期 / 短期分析技术评估详细技术流 ERI, China

8 Methodology framework 方法框架 Global Model IPAC-Emission 全球模型 IPAC- 排放 Energy economic model IPAC-CGE 能源经济模型 IPAC-CGE Global energy demand and supply 全球能源供求 Global GHG Emission 全球温室气体排放 Global Target 全球目标 Burden sharing 分担责任 Energy import/export 能源输入 / 输出 Energy Price 能源价格 Reduction cost 降低成本 Future economic sector detail 未来经济部门 Energy intensive industry 能源密集型行业 Reduction cost 降低成本 China energy and emission scenarios 中国能源与排放情景 Energy demand by sectors 分部门的能源需求 Energy supply 能源供给 Reduction cost 降低成本 Energy technology model IPAC-AIM/technology 能源技术模型 IPAC-AIM/ 技术

9 GDP 亿元第三产业增加值第二产业增加值第一产业增加值年份

10 Investment by industrial sectors 分行业的投资亿元工业分部门投资年份建筑业自来水的生产和供应业煤气的生产和供应业蒸汽热水生产供应业电力生产供应业其他工业仪器仪表文化办公用机械电气机械及器材电子及通信设备制造业交通运输设备制造业普通机械专用设备制造业金属制品业有色金属黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业非金属矿物制品业橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业化学纤维制造业医药制造业化学原料及制品制造业炼焦业石油加工印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业造纸及纸制品业木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业家具制造业服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造纺织业烟草加工业食品饮料加工制造业非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业有色金属矿采选业黑色金属矿采选业天然气开采业石油 10

11 Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC 主要部门的产品产量, 低碳与 ELC 情景 Unit Steel Million ton Cement Million ton Glass Million cases Copper Million ton Ammonia Million ton Ethylene Million ton Soda Ash Million ton Casutic Million ton Paper Million ton FertilizerMillion ton Aluminum Million ton Paper Million ton Calcium camillion ton

12 Population 人口 Population Urbanization rate 43% 49% 63% 70% 74% 79% Urban Population Person per Household Urban Household Rural Population Person per Household Rural Household

13 Parameter of Urban Household: by 2030 same life quality as that in developed countries 城镇居民家庭参数 : 至 2030 年生活质量与发达国家水平一致 Service Unit Service Household, million Share of HH with space heating 42% 44% 48% Index of space heating intensity, 2000= Index of space heating time, 2000= Share of building with 50% efficiency 20% 45% 65% standard Ownership of Air Conditioner Index of Air conditioner intensity, 2000= Index of air conditioner utilization time, =1 Ownership of Refrigerator per 100HH Average space of refregeretor L Efficiency of Refregeretor 0.8kWh/ 天 0.8kWh/ 天 0.7kWh/ 天 Ownership of washing machine per 100HH times to use washing machine per week Ownership of TV per 100HH Average Capacity of TV 320W 300W 280 Hours per TV per day Penetration rate of CFL 100% 100% 100% Light per HH Ownership of Water heater per 100HH 100% 100% 100% Ownership of Solar heater per 100HH 18% 25% 33% Ownership of Electric cooking per 100HH Hours per day of electric cooking Minutes Capacity of other electric applicance W 1500W 1800W 2300W Hours of other electric appliance Minutes

14 光伏电池 (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池, 转换效率接近 30% 太阳热利用普及率 : 20-60% ( 目前 6%) 能源检测系统 ( 家用电器 ) 超高效空调太阳能利用生态生活教育减少 10-20% 能源需求 2050 年的低碳住宅舒适和节能屋顶植被高效照明如 LED 照明减少 50% 照明需求, 普及率 100% 高效绝热减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率 70% COP =8, 普及率 100% 待机电源耗电降低 1/3, 普及率 100% 向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为低碳消费热泵采暖 COP=5 普及率 30-70% 燃料电池普及率 0-20% 高效家用电器减少能源需求, 支持舒适和安全生活方式 5

15 600 辆 / 千人机动车普及率 Car Ownership US 东营 2005 明显的左移效应北京 2007 杭州 2007 上海 2007 Greece Spain 台湾中国 2030 汇率法 Canada Italy Sweden France UK 北京 2020 中国 2030PPP 法新加坡 India 韩国 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 ource: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum GDP per Capita 人均 GDP (1997 $ PPP) 香港

16 Vehicle fleet, Low Carbon scenario, 车队, 低碳情景, Total Vehicle Passenger Freight Car Family Car Other Car Mini-Bus Large Bus Bus Motor Cycle

17 Transport, Low carbon scenario 交通, 低碳情景 Family car ownership, per 100HH Urban Rural Family car annual travel distance, km Average engin size of family cars, litter Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % Share of Biofuel, % 1.10% 1.30% 4.1% 7.70% 12% 13% Share of electric car, % 0% 0.12% 3.2% 6.80% 12.5% 19.8% Share of fuel cell car, % 0% 0% 0.80% 1.60% 4.70% 7.90%

18 Comparison of BaU and Low Carbon Scenario 基准线情景与低碳情景的对比 hnology Efficiency Ratio in 2030 Ratio in 2050 Note Reference scenario Low carbon scenario Reference scenario Low carbon Scenario ed coke Mcal/ ton 58% 50% 77% 42% Fully localization coke, with gas production of 1340 Mcal generation Mcal/ ton 17% 47% 23% 58% en coke, with gas production of 1420Mcal nching 2.4 Mcal/ ton J Recovery 80% 100% 90% 100% Localization, with promising prospect of market potential g furnace ternational d level urnace of ional d level s recovery ous and 390 Mcal/ ton sinter lump, saving 42% of energy 3750 Mcal/ ton hot metal, saving 21% of energy Heat and electricity recovery 0.7 Mcal/ ton hot metal Saving 86% of energy 45% 85% 67% 90% Needed to be localization 40% 65% 64% 87% 44% 70% 85% 100% 90% 98% 85% 95%

19 Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario 主要产品的单位能源使用,LCS 情景 Unit Steel Kgce/t Cement Kgce/t Glass Kgce/Weight Cases Brick Kgce/ 万块 Ammonia Kgce/t Ethylene Kgce/t Soda Ash Kgce/t Casutic Kgce/t Calcium carbide Kgce/t Copper Kgce/t Aluminum kwh/t Paper Kgce/t Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh

20 Technology learning curve Index, 2005= Year Hydrate Biomass-Ethanol IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell Hydrogen Vehicle Poly-Generation Solar Thermal Power PV 4th Generation Nuclear Off Shore Wind On Shore Wind Biomass Power Advanced NGCC

21 7000 Primary Energy Demand Mtce Baseline HLC HELC LLC

22 Mt C CO2 Emission in China Baseline Policy ELC

23 Investment in Energy Industry in China Energy Expenditures in China 10^8Yuan BaU HLC HELC LLC 10^8Yuan BaU HLC HELC Year Year Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC GDP Loss, % 10^8 Yuan % 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 650ppm 550ppm 450ppm Per Capita Carbon Intensity Industry Transport Building Total Year 0.00% 1.00%

24 Technology Roadmap 技术路线图 Field Technology Industry Advanced energy technique of Popularization Rate: 90%- 100% industry Transport Hybrid Electric Vehicle Popularization Rate:30%

25 Cost curve in power generation in China, 2050 Yuan/t C reduction, m tc

26 Fixed Unit Ivestment yuan/kw International IGCC International IGCC-Fuel Cell China IGCC China SC China USC

27 35.0 SO2 Emission in China Mt SO Baseline ELC

28 NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario Mt Other Power generation

29 PM2.5 Emission Mton Other Power generation

30 600.0 Mercury Emission ton Other Power generation

32 发电设备用水需求和温室气体排放 Open loop nuclear m3/mwh This size = MWh/yr 12 Open loop SC with CCS m 3 /MWh 10 Water withdrawal (m 3 /MWh) 708 Geothermal 6 Close loop 4 nuclear Close loop solar thermal Close loop USC with CCS Dry cooling USC with CCS Close loop SC with CCS Close loop USC Close loop SC Open loop SC 85.6 m 3 /MWh Close loop IGCC with CCS Close loop 2 NGCC Dry cooling Dry cooling SC Close loop IGCC Dry cooling solar thermal with CCS USC with CCS Close loop NGCC Hydro (run of river) Dry cooling SC 0 Wind Solar PV Hydro (dam) GHG emission (Kg CO 2 /MWh)

33 The GAINS model follows pollution from its sources to their impacts GAINS 模型 : 从污染源到其影响 Energy/agricultural projections National projections Emission control options Emissions Costs OPTIMIZATION Atmospheric dispersion Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions Environmental targets

34 Air pollution emissions by province for 2005 and 2030, for the Current legislation (CLE) baseline projection, the case with across-the-board application of advanced control technologies for large sources (ACT) and the cost-effective allocation determined with the GAINS model (OPT), in kilotons 2005 年与 2030 年各省空气污染排放目前的立法 (CLE) 基线预测, 大排放源的高级控制技术 (ACT) 的全面应用, 与由 GAINS 模型 (OPT ) 决定成本效益配置, 以千吨计

35 Computed annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in China for the baseline projection in 2030; left panel: including natural sources and soil dust, right panel: from anthropogenic sources only (used for health impact calculation) 2030 年中国年均 PM2.5 浓度基线预测 ; 左图 : 包括自然资源与扬尘右图 : 人为来源 ( 用于健康影响计算 )

36 Computed health-relevant ozone concentrations for China (SOMO35, i.e., Sum of daily 8-hour mean concentrations exceeding 35 ppb) computed for 2005 (left panel) and 2030 (right panel) 中国的健康相关的臭氧浓度 (SOMO35, 例如, 日 8 小时平均浓度总量超过 35ppb), 左图为 2005 年, 右图为 2030 年

37 Loss in statistical life expectancy in China attributable to outdoor pollution of PM2.5 in 2005 and the baseline projection for 年由于 PM2.5 户外污染造成的中国统计预期寿命损失与 2030 年基线预测 Anhui Beijing Chongqing Fujian Gansu Guangdong Guangxi Guizhou Hainan Hebei Heilongjiang Henan Hubei Hunan Inner_Mongolia Jiangsu Jiangxi Jilin Liaoning Ningxia Qinghai Shaanxi Shandong Shanghai Shanxi Sichuan Tianjin Tibet_Xizang Xinjiang Yunnan Zhejiang All China Months 2005 Change to 2030 for baseline projection

38 The GAINS cost-effectiveness approach can reduce costs for improving air quality by up to 50% GAINS 成本效益方法, 能够减少 50% 空气改善成本 Advanced emission control technologies are available to maintain acceptable levels of air quality despite the pressure from growing economic activities. 尽管经济增长造成压力, 先进的排放控制技术还是能够保持空气质量的可接受水平 The optimization mode of the GAINS model can identify the most cost-effective portfolio of measures to improve air quality. GAINS 模型的优化模式能够辨别最具成本效益的投资组合措施来提高空气质量 Air pollution control costs (% of GDP(PPP)) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2005 Full GAINS cost- application effective of advanced allocation technology, Power sector Industry Households Transport Others Life expectancy loss Loss in statistical life expectancy (months)

39 Well-designed air pollution control strategies can also reduce GHG emissions 精心设计的空气污染控制策略也能减少温室气体排放 Measures exist that simultaneously reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. 措施能够同时减少空气污染物与温室气体排放 GAINS identifies cost-effective measures that not only improve air quality but also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. GAINS 能够辨别提高空气质量且减少温室气体排放的经济有效的措施 Such measures also form part of a cost-effective air pollution control strategy. 这些措施也能成为经济有效的空气污染控制策略的一部分 Emission control costs (% of GDP (PPP) in 2030) 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% GAINS optimization with end-ofpipe measures only GAINS optimization with efficiency improvements and fuel substitution Energy efficiency, households Energy efficiency, industry Co-generation Electricity savings PM controls,households PM end-of-pipe measures NOx end-of-pipe measures SO2 end-of-pipe measures CO2 emissions (mio tons) Loss in life expectancy (months) CO 2 emissions (mio tons) - Life shortening (months)

40 Low carbon strategies have significant health benefits in Asia and Europe 低碳策略在亚洲和欧洲均有显著的健康收益 0% Low CO 2 strategies result in less SO 2, NO x and PM emissions. 低 CO 2 策略会导致更少的 SO 2,NO x 和颗粒物排放 Significant health impacts from air pollution occur as a co-benefit of CO 2 mitigation. CO 2 减排的协同效益是减少空气污染所带来的健康改善 Lower consumption of coal and oil also reduce air pollution control costs. In Europe, such cost savings can compensate up to 40 percent of CO 2 mitigation costs. 煤与油的低消耗能够减少空气污染控制成本在欧洲, 这样的成本节约能够补偿 40% 的 CO 2 减排成本 Change in loss in statistical life expectancy compared to baseline -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% EU-27 China India -45% -30% -20% -10% 0% Change in CO2 emissions compared to baseline

41 Costs of emission control measures for the GAINS optimization with air pollution measures only (left column) and the optimization with structural changes (billion /yr) GAINS 优化空气污染措施 ( 左栏 ) 与结构变化优化排放控制措施成本 ( 十亿欧元 / 年 )

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