346 42,.,.,,,,,. 1,, (1 2).,,., Fig. 1 Changes of the world energy resource structure over the past 100 years,,,.,.,,, 1.,, 1., GDP,,.,,

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1 J OU RNAL OF SHAN GHA I J IAO TON G UNIV ERSIT Y Vol. 42 No. 3 Mar : (2008) :,.,..,:,..,,,,,. : ; ; ; ; : T K 01 : A Reflections on Energy Issue s in China J I A N G Ze2mi n Abstract : Energy, which has a bearing on bot h economic and national security, is of importance and a major constraining factor to t he economic and social develop ment of China. The article analyses the current world energy status and develop ment trend from the perspectives of resources, production and consump2 tion and in t he context of it s implications on t he environment and economic and social develop ment, and ex2 plores opportunities and challenges for China s energy develop ment. With a focus on t he strategy of ener2 gy develop ment in China, t he aut hor p roposes a new energy develop ment approach with Chinese character2 istics whose main element s are : energy2saving, high2efficiency, diversified develop ment, environment p ro2 tection, technology guidance and international cooperation. In ot her words, China is striving to build a re2 liable energy production, circulation and consumption system t hat is efficient, technologically advanced, low polluting and ecologically f riendly. A long2term develop ment strategy with priority on energy conser2 vation, efficient utillization of p rimary energy and advanced electricity system is expounded in t he paper. The aut hor also describes t he prospect of energy technology develop ment and stresses t he implementation of energy strategy by f urt her improving energy policy and related mechanisms, strengt hening macro2man2 agement and the essential role of t he market in resource allocation so as to ensure t he economic and social develop ment of China t hro ugh reliable energy supply. Key words : energy ; energy develop ment ; energy security ; energy strategy ; energy policy :

2 346 42,.,.,,,,,. 1,, (1 2).,,., Fig. 1 Changes of the world energy resource structure over the past 100 years,,,.,.,,, 1.,, 1., GDP,,.,, ,,.,,.,., ,,,. 21,,,, (3),., [1 ] Fig. 2 Changes of the world energy consumption over the past 100 years , :, ( ),1989 ;,2050, [2 ] Fig. 3 Increase of China s energy consumption since the 10 th Five2year Plan ( Energy Consumption Elasticity Coefficient),. : =

3 3 : 347.,, , (4), ,,.,,,.,.,.,.,.,., 50 %,.,. CO2.,, CO2 [3 ] Fig. 5 Changes of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere over the past 150 years 4 Fig. 4 Increasing trend of the oil price in the international market 1. 4,. CO2., CO2 : 280 pp mv 379 pp mv (5) ; (6), 30.,., 6 [4 ] Fig. 6 Changes of the global average temperature over the past 100 years ,,,.,.,.,. (1),. 2006, t,, 147. BP(British Petroleum, ), SO2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, various editions

4 348 42,,. 20 ( Reserve/ Production Ratio, R/ P, ),40 60 (7).,,, ( g/ cm 3 ),.,..,. ( Organization of Petroleum Expor2 ting Countries, OPEC) %, 60 %., %., %. 7 Fig. 7 Changes of the reserve and production ratio of oil :., 6 % 20 %. :.,,4 % 20 %, 30 %. 500 C,, and natural gas in the world :,,,,..,, (2), TOE(1 TOE = TCE),35. 8 %, 1 ; %, 2 ; %,3,, 6. 3 % 5. 8 %. ( Organization of Economic Cooperation and Develop ment,o ECD),, 2.,,,.,,,,. 2030,. (3),.,. 2006,O ECD 51 %,4. 74 TO E., TO E TO E, TO E(8)., ;,,., , % ; %. ( International Energy Agency, IEA), % 1. 6 %,70 % (9) () Fig. 8 Comparison of the average energy consumption per capita of some countries ( regions) in 2006 : (2007) (2007)

5 3 : gλυ Fig. 9 Prospect of energy demand in different regions (4),. CO2 CH4 N2 O,. 1979, 1992,.,,,., , 5. 8 % gλϖ,14. 8 %.,,. 50.,,. (5),., 70 % ,,., gλυ : 2007 gλϖ 38 %,.,,,.,.,, gλω, (1),.,, 1 3 ;, , (10). : kw, kw h,,, t,,. gλξ t,,, 10 gλψ Fig. 10 Comparison of per capita possession of main resources in China and the average in the world gλω., gλξ : ; gλψ :

6 m 3,,.. (2), ,, TCE,., kw,1 GW 700 MW,,.,20 20,,, ,, ,GDP ; 2006,GDP,,. (3),.,,. 6, 12 t, t, 40 %.,,,,.,SO2 (11) NO x CO2,.,CO2,(12 13). 12 CO2 gλζ Fig. 12 Comparison of per capita emission of CO2 in the world 13 CO2 gλ{ Fig. 13 Major countries emission of CO2 from burning fuels (4), , (1) %, %.,, %, 21 %.,, 41, 36, 5., 1 [ 5] Tab. 1 Structure of the primary energy consumption in China / % (2005) 11 [2 ] Fig. 11 Emission of the main pollutants in China gλζ : (2007) gλ{ :CO

7 3 : 351,,. (5),.,,,,,.,,,2006, 11. 1,40. 5 (14),.,,,, gλ Fig. 14 Comparison of the reserve and production ratio of (2007) fossil f uels energy resources between China and the world in ,.,.,,,.,,,. 3. 1,,, gλ :,,.,,. (1)...,,,.,,., ;,,. (2).,,.,,.,,,,. (3).,.,.,,. (4)..,,,,.,,,.,,.,,. (5).,.,,.,,,.,

8 , ,,,.,,, ,,,, ,.,,,, ,,,.. (1).,,.,,,.,,,,., 630 kg, 570 kg. 96 kg, 86 kg. (2). 30 % 40 %.,,,.,,. 80 %, 70 %.., L, 50 % 70 %,. 500 km,.,, ;,,,. (3).. 30 %.,20 m 2,.,,., ( ),, 50 % 65 %, 90 %, ;,, 55 % 85 % [6 ] ;,,,.,,. 3. 3,,..,,,, ,,.,.,,, ( 2).,

9 3 : 353., ;,,,. 2 gλ} Tab. 2 Comparison of techno2economic index among major coal production countries / t / / [ t (a ) - 1 / % / % ] ,. SO2 NO x.. ( 15),,., SO2 NO x ;, CO2 CO2,., 10 % 20 %,.,., ,,,. gλ} : ; ;. 2005, [7 ] Fig. 15 Schematic diagram of the coal poly2generation,,.,,., ;,;.,,.,,,, ,.,,,.,,.,,.,,,.,, gλ,, gµυ gλ : gµυ :,..,50 md ( ) (1 md 1 mp s, kpa (1 atm), 1 cm 1 cm 2 1 cm 3 )

10 ,,, ,.,,.,, (3).,,,.,,.,,,.,,,,,,. 3 [ 8] Tab. 3 Major target of the mid2and2long2term development plan for renewable energy resources / GW / GW / GW / % ,,.,.,,.,.,.,,,.,.,,.,,,.,,, ,,,,,.,.,.,.,,, ; ( 16)., 16 gµϖ Fig. 16 Schematic diagram of the utilization of hydrogen energy gµϖ

11 3 : 355,.,. 21,.,,,.,., 2,..,,,,..,,. ( Internatio nal Thermo nuclear Experimental Reac2 tor, ITER),, 2050, (17)., ITER,. ITER,,.,, ( ), 23 () ,,,,,.,.,, 1 kw,. 2007, kw (18 19). : kw, 21, ;,8 850 MW ;, MW.,., 20 GW kw, 45 %. 2007,357 g/ (kw h), g/ ( kw h).,, kw, 5.,,,,,,,. 17 gµω Fig. 17 Schematic diagram of ITER gµω :http :/ / www. iter. org gµξ Fig. 18 China s total installed capacity of electric power in 2007 gµξ :,

12 gµξ Fig. 19 China s structure of electric power in ,.,,.,,,SO2 NO x., 41 % 43 % 45 % 47 %., ( In2 tegrated Gasification Combined Cycle,IGCC), 50 %,,CO2. ( Combined Cycle Gas Turbine,CCGT), 58 % 65 %. 80 %.,,, ,.,2/ 3.,,.,.,,,,,.,,,,,.,,,,.,, , 2, (4).,. 3, gµψ,, gµζ Tab. 4 Share of nuclear power in primary energy of some countries ( regions) in 2006 / % / % ( ) , 3. (20) [9 ] 4,..,., kw,.,,. 3,,,,.,4,, gµψ, ( ),,,., gµζ : 2007

13 3 : 357.,.,,.,,,,.,,,. 5 [ 10] Tab. 5 Development trend of the latest wind power units in the world / kw / m / m / (MW h) () gµ{ Fig. 20 Schematic diagram of primary 2loop system of high temperature gas2cooled reactor ,,, ;, ( 5)., 10 kw,.,,,.,,, MW.,, ,. gµ{,,,..,,.,,,.,, ( ),, ,,.,.,1 000 kv 800 kv kv ( ) 5 GW, 500 kv 5 ; 800 kv ( ) 6. 4 GW, 500 kv2. 1,,..,,, gµ,. gµ.,,,

14 358 42,,.,., gµ},.,,,,.,.,,,,. 4.,,.,, ;,, ;,,.,. (1).,..,,,.,. (2).,,,,.,,,., gµ}, 1 MW,,,,. (3).,.,,,.,.,,,,. (4).,.,,,., ;,,. (5).,,,.,.,, CO2.. (6).,.,,,,,,.,,,,. (7).,

15 3 : 359.,,,.,,,,.,,,. (8).,,,,.,,,,,,,.,. : [ 1 ]. [ M ]. :,1991. [ 2 ]. ( ) [ M ]. :, [ 3 ] ( IPCC). 4 [ R] [ 4 ] Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al. Global tempera2 ture Change[J ]. PNAS, 2006, 103 : [ 5 ] [ M ]. :,2007. [ 6 ]. 2007[ M ]. :,2007. [ 7 ],. [ M ]. :,2005. [ 8 ]. [ EB/ OL ] [ ]. http :/ / www. ndrc. gov. cn/ fzgh/ ghwb/ 115zhgh/ P pdf. [ 9 ]. [ M ]. :,2005. [10 ]. 12 [ M ]. :, 2005.

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