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通界栋寿
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1 - Low Carbon Development and Emission Scenario in Shanghai, China - Using LEAP as an Integrated Energy and Environment Model Financially supported by Energy Foundation CHEN Changhong, WANG Bingyan, ZHAO Jing, DAI Yi Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences Beijing, China May, 2004

2 Outline 1. Background 2. Research Targets 3. Scenarios Analysis 4. Policy Recommendations

4 Energy and Environment Status in Shanghai Shanghai is a Chinese city with a robust economy, highest energy consumption per capita, but lacks energy and resources GDP 5409 GDP 5000 GDP in 2002 was billion Yuan, and GDP per capita was close to $5000.

5 Energy and Environment Status in Shanghai ( 3.3 ) (1.0 ) 3~4 Total energy consumption in 2002 accounted for 60.5 million TCE, and energy use per capita was 4.5 TCE (except for floating population, nearly 3.3 TCE if floating population is counted), about 3-4 times the energy consumption per capita of China (1.0 TCE).

6 Comparison of Energy Economical Index Between Shanghai and Other Cities in China (in 2002) Beijing Tianjin Guangzhou Chongqing Shanghai GDP : : 3:36:61 4:50:46 3:41:56 16:42:42 2:47: % % % % GDP / % GDP / / / / E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \Final\ _Final.doc

7 1. Economic Growth of Shanghai 6000 GDP E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \shanghai Energy 2.xls

8 3. Energy consumption E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ xls

9 4. Primary energy structure 1995 Natural Gas 0% Natural Gas 1% 2000 Crude Oil 32% Hard Coal 46% Crude Oil 34% Hard Coal 44% Coking Coal 22% Coking Coal 21% E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \.xlss

10 Energy Intensity in Shanghai Relatively High Relatively low in Energy Efficiency Need Energy Structure Adjustment, Technical upgrade Relatively High in Energy Efficiency Energy Intensity Energy consumption per unit of GDP Shanghai= India Tianjiang Beijing China Shanghai Guangzhou HK UK Canada USA GDP per capita Shanghai=100

11 5. SO 2 SO 2 Emission SO2 Emission, 10kt E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \Shanghai Air Quality_01.xls

12 8. SO 2 Air quality comparison with Shanghai and European cities-so Shanghai 2000 Shanghai 2002 Shanghai APEC 2001 Madrid (Spain) Athens (Greece) Rotterdam (Netherlands) Milano (Italy) Luxembourg Paris (France) Barcelona (Spain) Bruxelles (Belgium) London (UK) Region Lyon (France) Warsaw (Poland) Birmingham (UK) Liverpool (UK) Berlin (German) Vienna (Austria) Zurich (Switzerland) Hamburg (German) Frankfurt (German) Lisbon (Portugal) Goteborg (Sweden) Kobenhavn (Denmark) Stockholm (Sweden) 5 0 SO2, /

13 8. PM 10 Air quality comparison with Shanghai and European cities-pm PM10, ug/m3 20 0,2000,2002 APEC 2001

14 Research Targets Study the benefits of low carbon development to reduce energy supply pressures, air pollutants emission control, and ambient air quality improvement. Finally advance policy recommendations for energy environment in Shanghai.

15 Tools and Models to be used for low carbon studies Health outcome & valuation Energy Model Population Exposure Geographic Information System (GIS) Air Quality Model

16 Works of Shanghai Integrated Energy and Environmental Model System Energy Model Energy Supply & Pollutant Emission Further Policy Request Health outcome & valuation Policy Cost Running CBAM Geographic Information System (GIS) Numbers of Population Expose to Certain Pollution Pollution Maps Population Exposure Emission Inventory Air Quality Projection Air Quality Model

17 Table LEAP Definition of Scenarios in LEAP Shanghai LEAP Scenario 1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 2 COAL+GAS Scenario 3 Scenario 3 BAU Scenario 2-BAU ( ) EE S2_EE_only ( ) S2_COAL_GAS ELEC+WIND S2_ELEC_WIND SO2 PM LEAP Definition of Scenarios in LEAP Shanghai S2_ELEC_WIND_SO2a S2_EE_COAL_GAS_ELEC _WIND_SO2b S2_EE_COAL_GAS_ELEC _WIND_SO2b_PM + + ( ) + ( ) ( S2_EE_COAL_GAS_ELEC ( SO2 + ) _WIND_SO2c_PM )

18 GDP Assumption of GDP growth rate GDP, %

19 GDP GDP growth scenario Total GDP, 100 million RMB Growth Scenario 3 Growth Scenario 2 Growth Scenario 1

20 Medium and Long-term End Energy Demand in Shanghai Pollutants: Final energy demand in final energy units: demand Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Fuel: All Fuels Transport Secondary Industry Residential Primary Industry Commerce million tonne of coal equivalent Years

21 Medium and Long-term Primary Energy Demand in Shanghai Pollutants: Primary requirements: primary million tonne of coal equivalent Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Fuel: All Fuels Years Wind Natural Gas Hydrogen Hydro Hard Coal Crude Oil Coking Coal CNG Biomass (unspecified)

22 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 SO 2 Total SO 2 Emissions Pollutants: Environment Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Effects: Sulfur Dioxide Transformation Demand thousand tonne 1, Years

23 550 PM Total PM Emissions Pollutants: Environment Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Effects: Total Suspended Particulates Transformation Demand thousand tonne Years

24 CO 2 Total CO 2 Emissions million tonne Pollutants: Global Warming Potential (CO2 equivalent) Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, GWP: All GWPs Years Transformation Demand

25 Low Carbon Development Scenarios and Air Pollutants Emissions Scenarios

26 Comprehensive Scenarios A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H BAU EE EE+COAL EE+COAL+GAS EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2a EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2b EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2b+PM EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2c+PM

27 Primary Energy Demand 7000 Total energy demand, PJ A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ \ \ _.xls

28 SO 2 SO 2 Emissions SO2 Emission, kt A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ _ _new_update.xls

29 PM Emissions PM Emission, kt A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ _ _new_update.xls

30 CO 2 CO 2 Emissions Relative Emission of CO2, % A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ _ _new_update.xls

30.655º South to 31.855º North latitude 121.983º East to 120.

31 30.655º South to º North latitude º East to º West longitude 6341 km 2 of Shanghai is covered by 924 grids of 32 28

32 Transfer Matrix Model LEAP Transfer Matrix Emission Turns to emission produced by to air quality LEAP GIS GIS system Counting Population Exposed some level of air pollution 4 4km Quicker/More Efficient Annual average SO2/Primary PM10 Health Impact Studies

33 Example of PM 10 forecast PM 10 EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2b+PM

34 Exposure Level / BAU B C D F H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ \ \ _Final_01.doc

35 Air pollution exposure level and response E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ \ \ _Final_01.doc

36 2010 BAU Results: Health Benefits of Various Low Carbon Development Scenarios Compared with BAU Scenario in 2010 EE GAS WIND SO 2 b SO 2 c

37 2010 BC Results Economy Benefits of Various Low Carbon Development Scenarios Compared with BAU Scenario in 2010 Million USD EE GAS WIND SO 2 b SO 2 c GDP

38 Main Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 1. Coal is the primary energy source. The structure is not reasonable. 2. The proportion for coal fired emissions is still very high. The mode of energy use needs further adjustment. 3. There is still a great disparity of ambient air quality between Shanghai and cities in Europe and USA. 4. With the development of economy, energy demand and air pollutants emissions in Shanghai will keep on increasing if there is no further control measure are enacted.

39 Main Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 5. As a new develop mode, low carbon development will do benefit on the harmonious development among economy promotion, energy construction and environmental protection and has a remarkable effect on health economics.

40 Policy Recommendations Emission CAP GDP TPES Emission = ( 1 ER) CAP GDP TPES

41 Policy Recommendations GDP PJ-50PJ %-3% Positively advocate energy saving If the energy consumption per GDP in Shanghai drops one percent, total energy use in 2010 can reduce 35PJ-50PJ (nearly 1.5 million-200 million TCE), is 2%-3% of total energy consumption in 2000.

42 Policy Recommendations GDP Better utilize natural gas from western China, and shift to the low carbon energy ecnomics Gas supply to the commercial in Shanghai in Jan 1st, 2004 is a great chance for Shanghai to advance its low carbon development. Shanghai should efficiently hold the advantaged phases of Western China Development, transferring natural gas from West to the East and transporting electricity from West to the East to transit traditional economical development to the low carbon. Directed as low carbon energy structure adjustment, bodied as product structure regulation, Enforcing the structural adjustment within industry will reduce the local air pollutants and CO 2 emission by the adjustment the structures of industry, products and energy.

43 Policy Recommendations % 10% BAU SO 2 PM CO 2 Reduction of direct coal burning on the end End coal consumption in 2000 took up 23% of the total. Due to the relatively low combustion efficiency of coal burning boiler on the end pipe, the efficiency of single boiler is only 10%, which not only reduces the efficiency of energy system as a whole, increases the business cost of producing activities, but also causes air pollution around the factories. Compared with BAU scenario, SO 2 and PM emissions will decrease, growth rate of CO 2 emission will be mitigated and remarkable health economical benefit will be done if only one measure of low carbon energy substitute to the coal burning boilers.

44 Policy Recommendations 300 Develop renewable energies There are nearly 3 million t stalks produced every year in rural area in Shanghai. Besides the amount returned to crops and mixed with dejecta to adjust the carbon nitrogen ratio of organic fertilizers, the number used as energy is a little. So comprehensive utilize of stalks should be one of the most important components of renewable energies in Shanghai

45 Policy Recommendations CDM Energetically develop clean energies, introduce advanced energy transformation technology and upgrade system energy efficiency Introduce advanced energy technology, alter traditional energy use, upgrade energy efficiency by CDM mechanism Levy environmental tax for high pollution and carbon emission Internalize the external cost and levy environmental tax

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust 2011 2 1 1 2 3 4 1. 100101 2. 100124 3. 100039 4. 650092 - - - 3 GDP U 20-30 60% 10% TK01 A 1002-9753 2011 02-0042 - 10 Analysis on Character and Potential of Energy Saving and Carbon Reducing by Structure