untitled

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "untitled"

裔冀
4 years ago
Views:

1 Journal of Taiwan Energy Volume 5, No. 3, September 2018, pp TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) % % (International Energy Agency, IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, DDPP) 2015Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 report TIMES TIMESBottom-upTIMES (Time slice) TIMES *: #2728, fred501146@iner.gov.tw : : :

2 MARKAL (MARKet and ALlocation) EFOM (The Energy Flow Optimization Mode) MARKAL MARKAL TIMES V2G TIMES V2G ( ) ( ) TIMES MARKAL (Department of Energy and Climate Change, DECC) MARKALUKTM (UK TIMES Model)TIMESUKTM (University College London, UCL) wholesem (Whole Systems Energy Modelling Consortium) DECCTIMES DECC CO 2 e 1,725 Mt % (Ekins et al., 2014) (Global Warming Solutions Act, GWSA) % ( )( )CA-TIMES (California TIMES Model) (UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies) 2014 (Yang et al., 2014)2050 (California Air Resources Board, ARB) TIMES ( 2015) TIMES ( 2016) TIMES (2016)

3 235 TIMES (Time slice) ( 2016) 2011 ( 2011) (2013) ( 2015) ( 2017) TIMES Annual SeasonDaynite Daynite Daynite TIMES

4 236 1 TIMES 11.19% 11.90% 10.21% 10.79% 1.34% 1.45% 1.31% 1.41% 13.26% 10.17% 12.24% 9.53% 1.48% 1.15% 1.41% 1.15% AF 1 (Time slice specific Availability Factor)AFA 2 (Annual Availability Factor) AF AFA 99~ (Capacity Factor, CF)2 TIMES 2CF AF (Availability Factor)TIMES AF = (Time slice) / (Time slice) = (( ) (Time slice)) / (( ) (Time slice)) 2 AFA = ( )/( )AF AF AFA AF = AFA (Time slice) / (Time slice)

5 237 ( 2012) 31 (1) (300 C) (2) (3) 250 kw/2,000 kwh 8 (kwh/kw = 8) (Vanadium Redox Battery, VRB) (International Journal of Energy Research, IJER) VRB kwh/kw = 15 (4) 90% Tesla MW 2.6 GW (MW) 3 (USD/kW) (USD/kWh) ( ) (%) / N2P , , , , , Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, 2014 (USD/kW) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, (USD/kWh) 1, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, 2014 ((McKinsey&Company, 2017) (2015) 2.

6 GW ( 2014) % ( 2017) 4 ( ) ( ) V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) V2G (Hyundai Mobis) OBC (On-board charger) (Enel Energia) (Nissan)(Italian Institute of Technology)V2G (Frederiksberg Forsynin) V2G Nissan e-nv200v2g OBC TIMES 5 (Gross Domestic Product, GDP) 2025( 2017) 2031 (GDP per capita, GDPP)GDP GDPP % ~ ~2050

7 239 4 ( ) 100 kg %~10% ( 2005) (Energy Information Administration, EIA) 2017Annual Energy Outlook 2017 ( AEO) (Mid-Size) 3%~5% ( 2015) AEO 30% AEO 15% 30%30% ( 2017) 50( AEO ( 5 ) ,000 Gogoro (Mirai)( ) 2016

8 % % % % % % % % TIMES BAU (Business as Usual, BAU) TIMES TIMES 30 6 TIMES (%) (%) (%) (%)

9 ( ) ~ ~ ( )9 V2G

10 ~2028 ( 1) 2028~ % 2017~2028 ( 1) ( 2) 2028~ % ( 2) ( 4) ( ) (2050ETRI) 2030 (100 USD/KW) 2020 (2005 2%) 2025 ( %) 2030 (INDC) 2050 () ~2028(10610 ) %20% , MW ,500 5,500 7,650 10,100 12,550 15, ,500 20,000 20,000 22,504 25,008 27,512 30, ,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 2,089 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2, ,200 1, ,354 1,496 2,004 2, , TIMES TIMESED (Elastic Demand)

11 : : / 3. : % % (2015) ETRI (Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute) TIMESED (Elastic Demand) % % % % GW

12 244 2() V2G

13 245 (kwh/kw) (International Journal of Energy Research, IJER)VRB kwh/kw=15 12( 12) kwh/kw = ~ V2G (/) // ( ) V2G

14 246 3() 2040 OBC

15 247 V2G (2,000 CC) % (/ ) (1/2) TIMES 2015 TIMES

16 248 No TIMESBAU 2013 INER-MARKAL GW eip.iner.gov.tw/ TIMES racev.com/bus.htm TIMES-ED Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 report -executive summary, SDSN - IDDRI. Ekins, P., P. Dodds & H. Daly, TIMES Energy System Models at UCL, WholeSEM/ DECC Stakeholder Workshop, UK. Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI), Energy Technology Reference Indicator projections for , European Commission, pp Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2017 with projections to 2050, Washington, US, pp International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Technology Perspectives 2016: Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Systems, OECD/ IEA, Paris, France, pp McKinsey&Company, How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability, Advanced Industries, Visual Media Europe, pp Yang, C., S. Yeh, K. Ramea, S. Zakerinia, D. McCollum, D. Bunch & J. Ogden, Modeling Optimal Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy in California: California TIMES (CA-TIMES) Mode, Institute of Transportation Studies.

17 Journal of Taiwan Energy Volume 5, No. 3, September The Impaction of the Development of Electric Vehicle on Grid-Level Energy Storage System in Taiwan Yu-Ching Huang 1* Jyh-Jun Chen 2 Fu-Kung Ko 3 ABSTRACT In order to reduce environmental pollution caused by traditional fossil fuels, the government is actively to promote the use of EEVs (Energy Efficient Vehicles). The development of electric vehicles is most rapidly among EEVs and has attracted the attention all over the world. The key part of electric vehicles is battery whereas the research institutions all over the world have great differences in the estimation of vehicle battery prices. Therefore, this study designs reference case scenario, conservative scenario and positive scenario, and uses TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model to simulate the influence of differences in the cost of lithium batteries for vehicles and evaluate the influence of grid-level energy storage systems when lithium batteries apply in the form of V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) for grid. Reference case scenario shows that regardless of carbon reduction, TIMES model chooses power mix dominated by fossil-fired plants, resulting in the effect on carbon emission reduction from electric vehicles is limited, and the development of grid-level energy storage system is also limited. Conservative scenario shows that lithium batteries will develop faster, and flow batteries can develop simultaneously with lithium batteries in 2025 by increasing the amount of stored electricity. Positive scenario shows that when the cost of lithium batteries drops rapidly, electric motorcycles and electric buses will develop in mid-term in Taiwan, and the development of flow batteries will be limited. It is recommended that the energy density of flow batteries should be improved, so that energy cost will be reduced to improve competitiveness. Suggestions for the development of electric vehicles and grid-level energy storage in our country are also addressed in this study. Keywords: Electric Vehicle, Carbon Emission, Energy Service Demand, Energy Storage System 1 Research Assistant, Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Atomic Energy Council. 2 Associate Engineer, INER, Atomic Energy Council. 3 Senior Research Fellow, INER, Atomic Energy Council. *Corresponding Author, Phone: #2728, fred501146@iner.gov.tw Received Date: March 13, 2018 Revised Date: July 12, 2018 Accepted Date: July 31, 2018

Microsoft PowerPoint - EO17+booklet-+final print+CN.pptx

Microsoft PowerPoint - EO17+booklet-+final print+CN.pptx bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2017 BP 1 4 9 23 45 46 50 54 58 63 2 70 72 76 82 86 88 90 92 95 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975-1995