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1 李文军张巍巍 2 [ ] [ ] [Abstract] Trade structures between China and its partners, especially Asian partners and Western partners, vary a lot, so bilateral trade effects of their corresponding RMB exchange rates are different too. In this paper, panel data models are used to analyze empirically the impacts of RMB exchange rate on trade between China and its major partners from a bilateral perspective. Then, with trade data divided into primary products and manufactures, this paper explains further the impacts of bilateral RMB exchange rate on different kinds of bilateral trade. Some meaningful results are got. [Key Words] RMB Exchange Rate; Foreign Trade Effect; Panel Data Model 1 2007 ( YZDN) 2 1966 10 5 10073213911663178 Email: liwj@cass.org.cn 1986 4

2005 7 21 2% 2008 12 21.30% 2005 7 WTO 2008 9 2008 10 (ML) J 1992 1980-1989 1 Cerra Saxen 2002 20022003-0.66 0.56 2005 1994-2003 -1.88 1.96 (ML) J 2005 2005 VAR FDI 2006 VECM SITC J 2007 FDI 1997 2006 J 5 2008-1.78-1.36 Granger 2008 SITC 1

Willem Thorbecke(2006) Marquez Schindler (2006) FDI 10% 0.5% 0.1% Li Wang John Walley(2008) (CGE) 2002 2005 FDI 1. 1.1 (BIS) 1994 2008 1994 2002 2 108.80 2000 =100 1994 1 68.83 58.07% 2005 4 87.86 2005 7 2008 12 110.49 2005 7 21.6% 1994 1 60.53% 1 REER EER 2

120 50 110 40 100 90 REER 30 ER_TW ER_MLA 80 70 EER 20 10 ER_SG ER_US ER_KR ER_EU ER_JP 60 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 0 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 1 2002 100 http://www.bis.org/ 2 1994 1997 2005 2005 7 2008 12 21.3% 1999 1 2001 8 2004 12 2005 7 2008 12 1996 1 1998 8 1999 12 2000 1 2005 6 2002 10 15.004 2005 6 13.139 2005 7 2008 9 1994 1996 12 10.173 10 1997 1998 2 19.811 1997 1 10.385 90.77%2005 7 2008 8 15.841 12.683 24.90% 2 ER 3

1.2 2007 1 58.52% 1 2007 356272 245231 111041 134190 16.39% 20.14% 11.62% 1 302067 232677 69391 163286 13.90% 19.11% 7.26% 2 235951 102009 133942-31934 10.85% 8.38% 14.01% 3 159851 56099 103752-47653 7.35% 4.61% 10.85% 5 124487 23460 101027-77567 5.73% 1.93% 10.57% 6 47144 29620 17524 12097 2.17% 2.43% 1.83% 8 46386 17689 28697-11008 2.13% 1.45% 3.00% 9 2173726 1217776 955950 261825 1997 192.02 238.42 2005 735.50 1437.53 1997 2.83 5.03 2007 1110.41 2452.31 2005 50.97% 70.59% 1997 162.98 326.95 2005 486.22 1628.91 1997 1.98 3.98 2007 693.91 2326.77 2005 42.74% 42.84% 1997 289.93 318.20 2005 1004.08 839.86 1997 2.46 1.64 2007 1339.42 1020.09 2005 33.40% 21.46% 1998 18% 2006 20% 2006 2008 16% 1996 22% 2008 8% WTO 2008 20% 1997 7 ( 3) 4

1997 2007 20.37% 11.45% 13.49% 14.01% 7.26% 11.62% 1997 10.49% 10.85% ( 4).25.20 JP US.3 JP.15.2 EU.10.05.00 EU KR TW SG MLA 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08.1.0 TW KR US SG MLA 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 3 4 2008 12 93.88% 6.12% 1994 1 89.01% 2008 8 64.96% 10.99% 35.04%2008 9 2004 2. 2.1 Bickerdike-Robinson-Metzler BRM : d * * EX f ( Y, Px, Px, ER) = 1 d * IM f( Y, Pm, Pm, ER) = 2 Y Y * P x P * x P * m P m ER 5

P RER = ER : P EX f Y RER d * = (, ) 3 d IM = f ( Y, RER) 4 50% FDIFDI 2005 7 2001 12 WTO WTO log( EX ) = β + β log( Y ) + β log( RER ) + β log( FDIS ) * it 0 1i it 2i it 3 i i, t 1 + β VOL + β WTO + µ 4i t 5i it 5 log( IM ) = β + β log( Y ) + β log( RER ) + β log( FDIS ) it 0 1i t 2i it 3 i i, t 1 + β VOL + β WTO + µ 4i t 5i it 6 EX IM t i Y * t it it i RER t i it it it, 1 FDIS t-1 i VOL t t WTO WTO µ it 2.2 CPI 2000 2000 CPI CPI CPI CPI 2005 ARMA GARCH FDI 2006 1 FDI 6

2006 2007 2008 FDI 2006 FDI FDI FDI FDI X12 CEIC FDI 1994 10 2008 12 1996 1 2008 12 1998 4 2008 12 1999 1 2008 12 ADF 2 LLC IPS 3 3 FDI 2 (ADF) d(0) d(1) t p t p Y (c,t,2) -2.015 0.588 (c,0,1) -13.954 0.000 I(1) VOL (c,0,0) -4.94 0.00 I(0) 3 * 0.239-1.026 0.914-0.264-1.493-2.366 1.768 2.251-9.887 0.594 0.152 0.820 0.266 0.068 0.009 0.961 0.988 0.000 3.266 1.996 3.023 2.527 0.940 0.055 1.633 1.280-10.43 0.999 0.977 0.999 0.994 0.826 0.854 0.949 0.900 0.000-41.84-48.90-35.15-41.84-46.49-42.40-32.55-0.760 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.224-40.46-48.66-38.57-40.64-43.41-44.91-30.96-8.430 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 3. (5) (6) EX, RER, Y*, FDIS IM, RER, Y, FDIS Pedroni Pedroni Engle-Granger 6 Chow ( ) 1% 7

4 P P Group- -6.442 0.000-10.369 0.000 Group-PP -11.838 0.000-14.416 0.000 Group-ADF -4.153 0.000-4.125 0.000 Hausman Wald Redundant fixed effect F 5 Hausman 10% 5 ( ) P Hausman 5.477 5 0.361 () 1864.370 6 0.000 Hausman 1.098 5 0.954 () 2685.879 6 0.000 Chow 6 6 Chow F SSR SSR SSR SSR F RER 21.413 23.528 14.525 RER 10.495 11.678 16.009 Y 21.413 25.073 25.129 Y 10.495 11.914 19.212 FDIS 21.413 25.750 29.779 FDIS 10.495 13.868 45.641 VOL 21.413 21.777 2.502 VOL 10.495 10.543 0.658 WTO 21.413 28.005 45.259 WTO 10.495 11.311 11.042 Chow (6, 1029) 1% F(6, 1029) 2.82 Chow (6, 1036) 1% F(6, 1036) 2.82 Eviews6.0 7 8

(EX) (3.64) 1% 0.548 0.777-1.991-1.710-0.637-0.506 1% 5.386 1.896 FDI 1% 0.146 0.303 0.112 0.249 FDI FDI WTO WTO WTO 87.3% WTO 10% FDI 0.054 1% -2.216-1.660-1.333 1% 1.128 1.003 0.966 0.805 0.716 FDI 1% 0.232 0.165 0.323 0.536 FDI WTO 1% WTO WTO 10% FDI -0.059 7 EU US JP KR TW SG MLA -7.395-11.392 4.343 4.383 1.696 8.330-2.372 RER -1.710*** 0.548** -0.506*** -0.421*** -0.637*** -1.991*** 0.777*** (-10.95) (2.90) (-3.53) (-4.67) (-3.18) (-5.89) (4.42) Y* 5.386*** 5.758*** 1.896*** 2.142*** 2.768*** 1.976*** 2.212*** (17.95) (17.30) (8.79) (19.01) (22.07) (20.54) (9.68) FDIS 0.146*** -0.298*** 0.303*** -0.046-0.023 0.112*** 0.249*** (5.10) (-8.18) (9.13) (-1.48) (-0.74) (2.90) WTO -0.052 0.873*** 0.287*** 0.224*** 0.469*** 0.282*** 0.472*** (-0.84) (26.86) (6.79) (5.03) (11.59) (6.75) (8.83) 9

(IM) (6.30) VOL 0.054***(3.11) -0.556 0.390 0.625-2.613 2.160 2.689-3.718 RER Y FDIS -0.656*** (-4.91) 0.716*** (12.74) 0.116*** (5.14-1.333*** (-7.04) 1.128*** (20.19) -0.102*** (-5.77) -0.913*** (-7.97) 0.805*** (15.83) 0.016 (0.45) -0.617*** (-9.48) 0.966*** (19.64) 0.183*** (8.74) -1.660*** (-10.19) 1.003*** (22.63) 0.113*** (4.90) WTO -0.037-0.021 0.243*** 0.168*** 0.327*** (-0.78) (-0.49) (6.62) (4.67) (8.84) VOL -0.059***(-4.47) -2.216*** (-8.69) 0.530*** (11.72) 0.222*** (7.42) 0.384*** (10.72) *** 1% ** 5% * 10% t 8 9-0.387*** (-2.52) 0.642*** (9.79) 0.497*** (11.54) 0.267*** 4. (5) (6) 8 9 Chow 0.463 0.793-1.781 4.570 FDI FDI 0.044 WTO WTO WTO 0.562 0.770-2.140 5.971 FDI FDI 0.056 WTO WTO WTO 10

(EX0) (6.73) (EX1) (8.43) 8 EU US JP KR TW SG MLA -5.321-9.363 3.136 4.911 0.005 8.155-3.758 RER -1.112*** 0.463** -0.421*** -0.475*** -0.114-1.781*** 0.793*** (-6.42) (2.21) (-2.65) (4.75) (-0.51) (-4.75) (4.07) Y* 4.010*** 4.570*** 1.776*** 1.419*** 2.316*** 1.427*** 2.163*** (12.06) (12.39) (7.42) (11.36) (16.66) (13.39) (8.54) FDIS 0.090** -0.262 0.130*** -0.013-0.177*** -0.059-0.077 (2.85) (-6.50) (3.53) (-.039) (-5.22) (-1.39) (-1.01) WTO -0.090 0.756*** 0.230*** 0.174*** 0.467*** 0.256*** 0.398*** (-1.31) (21.00) (4.92) (3.54) (10.41) (5.51) VOL 0.044**(2.29) -7.546-11.603 4.488 3.814 1.821 8.650-1.963 RER -1.834*** 0.562** -0.543*** -0.431*** -0.757*** -2.140*** 0.770*** (-11.18) (2.83) (-3.61) (-4.54) (-3.60) (-6.03) (4.16) Y* 5.619*** 5.971*** 1.900*** 2.385*** 2.893*** 2.041*** 2.138*** (17.83) (17.08) (8.38) (20.14) (21.96) (20.19) (8.91) FDIS 0.162*** -0.301*** 0.379*** -0.039 0.034 0.196*** 0.392*** (5.40) (-7.86) (10.86) (-1.20) (1.05) (4.82) (5.45) WTO -0.039 0.892*** 0.300*** 0.248*** 0.471*** 0.267*** 0.473*** (-0.60) (26.14) (6.76) (5.31) (11.07) (6.07) VOL 0.056***(3.12) -2.634 0.979 FDI FDI FDI FDI -0.067 WTO 10% -1.863 1.237 FDI FDI FDI -0.062 WTO 10% 11

(IM0) (4.89) (IM1) (4.93) 9 EU US JP KR TW SG MLA -1.918-1.118-1.399-2.314 1.397 5.758-1.459 RER -0.284* -0.181-0.581*** -0.342*** -1.020*** -2.634*** -0.691*** (-1.87) (-0.84) (-4.47) (-4.62) (-5.51) (-9.10) (-3.97) Y 0.874*** 0.965*** 0.979*** 0.949*** 0.862*** 0.484*** 0.924*** (13.70) (15.21) (16.96) (16.99) (17.12) (9.42) (12.42) FDIS 0.088*** -0.109*** 0.056 0.153*** 0.033 0.104*** 0.028 (3.42) (-5.47) (1.40) (6.44) (1.27) (3.06) (0.60) WTO -0.073 0.159*** 0.080* -0.170*** 0.138*** 0.415*** 0.236*** (-1.37) (3.31) (1.92) (-4.17) (3.29) (10.20) VOL -0.067***(-4.45) 0.061 1.721 1.228-2.477 2.556 0.670-4.817 RER -0.759*** -2.043*** -0.976*** -0.748*** -1.826*** -1.863*** -0.163 (-4.79) (-9.10) (-7.18) (-9.69) (9.45) (-6.16) (-0.90) Y 0.673*** 1.237*** 0.758*** 0.990*** 1.041*** 0.542*** 0.398*** (10.10) (18.66) (12.57) (16.98) (19.80) (10.10) (5.12) FDIS 0.126*** -0.100*** 0.021 0.189*** 0.139*** 0.342*** 0.830*** (4.70) (-4.81) (0.50) (7.63) (5.07) (9.62) (16.88) WTO -0.030-0.127** 0.276*** 0.337*** 0.387*** 0.356*** 0.248*** (-0.54) (-2.53) (6.34) (7.91) (8.83) (8.37) VOL -0.062***(-3.93) 5. -1.991-2.216 12

1) 1992 2) 2002 9 27-34 3) 4) 2003 11 5) 2005 1994-2003 5 31-39 6) 2005 7) 2005 2006 2007 11) 2007 3 41-48 12) 2008 1 13) Cerra V. and Saxen SC. 2002, An Empirical Analysis of China s Export Behaviors. IMF working paper, WP/02/2002. 14) Marquez, J., and Schindler, J. 2006, Exchange Rate Effects on China s Trade: An Interim Report, Federal Reserve International Finance Discussion Paper No. 861 (Federal Reserve Board, Washington). 15) Willem Thorbecke 2006 The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 05-E -009. 16) Li Wang and John Whalley 2008, The Impacts of RMB Appreciation on Trades Flows and Reserve Accumulation in a Monetary Trade Model, NBER Working Paper 13586. 13