2012 3 * 0. 20 0. 36 0. 05 2006 2010 1. 46 / 2. 14 / 2. 93 / 4. 41 / 1. 27 / 2. 12 / 47% 50% 67% 2006 1 3. 48 / 2010 11 5. 84 / 68% 1 2010 CPI 70% 2006 2006 1 106. 06 2008 6 188. 02 77. 3% 2010 11 173. 35 5 130% 64% 91% 115% 2 3 * 100872 xiaosong0420 @ gmail. com xsx786@ yahoo. com. cn 11YJC790217 ZR2011GQ005 10CGJ021 141
1 2002 2010 2 2002 2010 Alexander & Wyeth 1994 3 2002 2010 - Dercon 1995 ECM - Johansen Goodwin 1992 VEC Asche 1999 Gonzalez 2001 ECM Goodwin 2001 1999 2000 ECM 2009 142
2012 3 Johansen VEC 2009 VAR ECM CPI 2002 VEC 1987 1999 2006 2008 CPI VEC CPI 1999 VAR VEC 143
VEC 2009 Johansen 2009 Trostle 2008 Trostle 2008 2008 2008 2007 2009 2008 VEC VEC 144
2012 3 Δp c x t = β 0 + β 1 E t -1 + t -1 β i Δp c x i + t -1 β j Δp f x j + ε c t 1 i = t - l j = t - k Δp f x t = γ 0 + γ 1 E t -1 + t -1 γ i Δp c x i + t -1 γ j Δp f x j + ε f t 2 i = t - l j = t - k p E Δ x = g c w r s t l k c f ε β γ β 1 γ 1 β j γ i E 1 2 Step p = f Foreign Eco Pop Stock Cost Wea M Exch Energy Foreign Eco GDP Pop Stock Cost Wea M Exch Energy p c x t = α + δp f x t -1 + θ i w i t - li + ε t 4 i OLS 4 p f x x w i 2007 p f x 1 w i l i l i AIC α δ θ i ε Trostle 2008 2002 2001 2002 1 2010 11 IMF 1 2005 1 100 3 1 145
GDP GDP GDP GDP CME 1 2008 2009 2010 M2 M2 CPI 1 Johansen 2 5 5% 3 VAR VEC 1 2 VEC Step 2 1 50% 2 3 146 ADF Johansen 2002 12
2012 3 1 p c g p c c p c w p c r p c s p f g p f c p f w p f r p f s GDP Vad Conf Pop Coal Crudeoil Proexp Fertexp Disa1 Disa2 M2 Reser p CME g p CME c p CME w p CME r p CME s Stockg Stocks Stockc Stockr Stockw 1995 1 100 107 4. 698 0. 310 / 107 5. 235 0. 285 / 107 5. 287 0. 281 / 107 5. 949 0. 330 / 107 6. 209 0. 333 1995 1 100 107 4. 776 0. 221 + 2 FOB / 107 4. 898 0. 303 + 1 FOB / 107 5. 259 0. 298 + 5% FOB / 107 5. 816 0. 450 + CME2 / 107 5. 638 0. 315 + GDP 36 10. 87 0. 430 + 107 3. 662 0. 517 + 2005 1 100 107 4. 571 0. 046 + 9 11. 79 0. 016 + FOB / 107 4. 000 0. 521 + / 107 3. 876 0. 491 + 36 4. 700 0. 522 + 36 3. 215 0. 313 + 9 10. 67 0. 133 + 9 10. 02 0. 213 + 107 12. 57 0. 424 + % 107 2. 472 1. 545 + CME / 107 5. 098 0. 412 CME / 107 4. 778 0. 330 CME / 107 5. 156 0. 339 CME / 107 5. 639 0. 402 CME / 107 5. 531 0. 285 107 10. 49 0. 256-107 8. 568 0. 685-107 10. 73 0. 220-107 10. 64 0. 163-107 10. 71 0. 196-2 1-0. 721 1% 0. 721% 147
1% 1% 1% 1. 1% 1. 6% 1 2 VEC 1-0. 721 0. 194 3. 002-0. 056-1. 098 t 1-1. 117 0. 037 2. 164-0. 064-1. 473 1-0. 977 0. 030 2. 210-0. 033-0. 817 1-1. 582 0. 094 1. 616-0. 032-1. 001 1-0. 968 0. 153 3. 028-0. 057-0. 860 4 OLS 1 Trefler 2004 VIF 4 1. 3 1 0. 4051% 1% 0. 4% 0. 4 R 2 0. 904 F 282 ADF - 5. 837 1% VEC GDP 1 VEC 148
2012 3 3 p f g p f c p f w p f r p f s Vad Conf Pop Crudeoil Coal Proexp Fertexp Disa1 Disa2 M2 Reser Stockg Stockc Stockw Stockr Stocks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 *** 105. 2 29. 87 0. 405 *** 0. 081-0. 012 0. 060 7. 944 *** 2. 136 0. 059 ** 0. 027-0. 006 0. 011 0. 337 *** 0. 070 0. 517 *** 0. 170 0. 0003 0. 004-0. 172 *** 0. 057 85. 58 *** 22. 39 0. 396 *** 0. 077 0. 604 *** 0. 211 6. 201 *** 1. 989 0. 041 *** 0. 005-0. 007 0. 033 0. 265 *** 0. 038 0. 505 *** 0. 134 0. 001 0. 004-0. 112 ** 0. 054 21. 55 26. 37 0. 234 *** 0. 040 0. 012 0. 029 3. 805 *** 0. 571 0. 118 *** 0. 010-0. 007 0. 012 0. 402 *** 0. 067 0. 403 *** 0. 184 0. 001 0. 003-0. 142 *** 0. 060 12. 94 13. 33 0. 235 *** 0. 041 0. 728 *** 0. 352 4. 033 *** 0. 482 0. 068 *** 0. 014-0. 011 0. 026 0. 209 *** 0. 021 0. 527 *** 0. 115 0. 002 0. 003-0. 185 ** 0. 063 73. 76 *** 21. 17 0. 044 ** 0. 020 0. 035 0. 041 2. 696 *** 0. 831 0. 219 *** 0. 021-0. 006 0. 019 0. 301 *** 0. 026 0. 446 *** 0. 138-0. 001 0. 005-0. 322 *** 0. 031 40. 17 * * 16. 69 0. 061 *** 0. 032 0. 592 0. 168 2. 531 *** 0. 420 0. 064 *** 0. 025 0. 019 0. 028 0. 284 *** 0. 011 0. 452 *** 0. 114-0. 001 0. 004-0. 287 *** 0. 061 131. 7 *** 38. 80 0. 208 ** 0. 062 0. 042 0. 057 3. 662 *** 0. 307 0. 088 ** 0. 040 0. 009 0. 028 0. 445 *** 0. 010 0. 893 *** 0. 116-0. 002 0. 007-0. 854 *** 0. 087 97. 05 *** 28. 33 0. 273 *** 0. 085 1. 044 *** 0. 367 2. 804 *** 0. 128 0. 055 *** 0. 003-0. 031 0. 050 0. 245 *** 0. 031 0. 803 *** 0. 185-0. 002 0. 003-0. 589 *** 0. 072 108. 2 *** 21. 36 0. 359 *** 0. 063 0. 039 0. 065 1. 697 *** 0. 634 0. 062 ** 0. 028 0. 002 0. 021 0. 789 *** 0. 104 0. 703 *** 0. 165-0. 001 0. 005-0. 314 *** 0. 025 95. 68 *** 18. 07 0. 278 *** 0. 034 0. 541 ** 0. 267 1. 437 *** 0. 501 0. 061 * 0. 034 0. 033 0. 053 0. 214 *** 0. 037 0. 738 *** 0. 170 0. 001 0. 005-0. 315 *** 0. 013 R 2 0. 904 0. 839 0. 912 0. 954 0. 930 0. 915 0. 908 0. 933 0. 896 0. 902 F 281. 9 365. 2 294. 6 363. 7 580. 2 568. 4 186. 3 204. 5. 179. 2 205. 0 ADF - 5. 837-7. 488-3. 889-5. 882-4. 117-6. 907-6. 320-9. 683-7. 083-6. 213 *** ** * 1% 5% 10% 2 1 p f g 149
0. 396 1% 1 3 10 0. 234 0. 05 5 2007 0. 20 0. 36 3 2. GDP 2004 GDP GDP 4 5% 2 3 3 GDP 4 p f x GDP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0. 305 *** 0. 118 0. 952 *** 0. 089 0. 291 *** 0. 112 1. 082 *** 0. 097 0. 180 ** 0. 068 0. 238 *** 0. 031 0. 203 *** 0. 077 0. 296 *** 0. 078 0. 092 0. 057 0. 169 *** 0. 041 0. 075 0. 051 0. 156 *** 0. 062 0. 187 0. 124 0. 879 *** 0. 154 0. 196 ** 0. 103 0. 720 *** 0. 272 0. 456 *** 0. 053 0. 201 *** 0. 084 0. 317 *** 0. 064 0. 135 *** 0. 010 R 2 0. 974 0. 983 0. 979 0. 974 0. 980 0. 991 0. 976 0. 971 0. 979 0. 958 F 115. 6 156. 3 129. 4 118. 0 112. 4 220. 5 151. 7 121. 4 138. 0 101. 2 ADF - 2. 907-5. 129-5. 874-5. 127-5. 093-4. 038-6. 502-6. 907-4. 828-5. 083 x = g c w r s 2 1 3 2 4 6 3 15% 150
2012 3 p f g Acemoglu et al 2001 5 I II III 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0. 035 0. 028 0. 786 *** 0. 005 0. 040 0. 030 0. 209 *** 0. 023 0. 231 0. 169 0. 912 *** 0. 010 0. 217 *** 0. 030 0. 245 0. 177-0. 006 0. 025 0. 870 *** 0. 012-0. 007 0. 028 0. 335 *** 0. 026 0. 321 0. 248 0. 939 *** 0. 038 0. 391 *** 0. 032 0. 309 0. 221 0. 443 *** 0. 049-0. 026 0. 173 1. 080 *** 0. 022 0. 459 *** 0. 037-0. 023 0. 176 I II III 6 p f x p CME x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0. 438 *** 0. 103 0. 671 *** 0. 083 0. 440 *** 0. 096 0. 668 *** 0. 076 0. 270 *** 0. 059 0. 868 *** 0. 015 0. 229 *** 0. 030 0. 852 *** 0. 023 0. 189 *** 0. 042 0. 544 *** 0. 069 0. 190 ** 0. 035 0. 540 *** 0. 072 0. 284 ** 0. 151 0. 985 *** 0. 110 0. 311 *** 0. 159 1. 038 *** 0. 115 0. 324 *** 0. 058 1. 105 *** 0. 033 0. 220 *** 0. 065 1. 114 *** 0. 020 R 2 I 0. 962 0. 969 0. 980 0. 982 0. 987 0. 986 0. 951 0. 972 0. 949 0. 956 R 2 II 0. 903 0. 916 0. 973 0. 967 0. 974 0. 951 0. 964 0. 568 0. 958 0. 957 Hausman 0. 058 0. 060 0. 009 0. 011 0. 132 0. 117 0. 022 0. 013 0. 045 0. 051 R 2 I R 2 II R 2 Hausman p 5 I II 4 III 2SLS 6 OLS 3 0. 44 0. 22 0. 27 0. 3 OLS R 2 0. 94 R 2 0. 9 6 Hausman OLS p 151
0. 05 2SLS 0. 1 2SLS OLS 0. 15 2SLS 0. 05 OLS 0. 15 2SLS OLS 2SLS OLS 2002 1 2010 11 VEC 0. 20 0. 36 0. 05 0. 4 152 2008 1 2009 2 2009 7 2007 2007
2012 3 2007 8 2008 7 2008 4 2002 1987-1999 1 4 2009 VAR 6 2006 5 2000 1999 9 2008 1999 3 Acemoglu D. S. Johnson and J. Robinson. 2001 The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development An Empirical Investigation American Economic Review 91 1369 1401. Alexander C 1994 Cointegration and Market Integration An Application to the Indonesian Rice Market Journal of Development Studies 30 303 328. Asche F. H. Bremines and C. Wessells 1999 Product Aggregation Market Integration and Relationships Between Prices An Application to World Salmon Markets American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81 568 581. Dercon S. 1995 On Market Integration and Liberalization Method and Application to Ethiopia Journal of Development Studies 32 112 143. Gonzalez-Rivera G. and S. M. Helfand 2001 The Extent Pattern and Degree of Market Integration A Multivariate Approach for the Brazillian Rice Market American Journal of Agricultural Economics 83 576 592. Goodwin B. 1992 Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of One Price in International Wheat Markets Review of Agricultural Economics 14 117 124. Goodwin B. and N. Piggott 2001 Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects American Journal of Agricultural Economics 83 302 317. Trefler D. 2004 The Long and Short of the Canada - U. S. Free Trade Agreement American Economic Review 94 870 895. Trostle R. Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices USDA Report 2008. How Do Prices of Foreign Agricultural Products Affect Prices of Chinese Agricultural Products Wang Xiaosong a and Xie Shenxiang b c a School of Economics Renmin University of China b Shandong University of Finance and Economics c Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics CASS Abstract This text explores whether prices of foreign agricultural products affect Chinese domestic prices of foreign agricultural products. Other factors controlled we certify that foreign prices have affected domestic prices significantly by economic sense. Degree of response to foreign prices differs among various kinds of agricultural products. Foreign price elasticity of corn rice and soybean s domestic price range from 0. 20 to 0. 36 but elasticity of wheat s domestic price is only 0. 05. This shows the integration of domestic and foreign prices has been established through international trade. Chinese government should alleviate price rising aroused by foreign market through the means of supporting agriculture more and enlarging stock of agricultural products. Key Words Prices of Agricultural Products Market Integration Foreign Price Elasticity Trade of Agricultural Products JEL Classification F14 F15 Q11 153