2008 5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (, 2007),,,,, ( Hotelling,93),, :,, ( ) ( ),, Hartwick (977),, (produced capital),, (BEA), ( El Serafy, 98,

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1 3 :, El Serafy,,,, CGE, 20 %,,, :, 2006, 50 %, Π5,, (, 2007),,,,,,,, ;, ;,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,, 3,, :36005, edu. cn,

2 2008 5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (, 2007),,,,, ( Hotelling,93),, :,, ( ) ( ),, Hartwick (977),, (produced capital),, (BEA), ( El Serafy, 98, 989 ;Repetto et al., 989 ;United Nations,998,2000 ;World Bank,995),, (net price) (user cost approach) ( Change in value method) ( transaction price) (replacement cost) (sustainability price),, (United Nations, 998, 2000) (World Bank, 995) (Repetto,989),,, ( ),, :, ;,, 95

3 ,,,, (Von Amsberg,993),,,,,,,, ( Hotelling,93) (, ),,,,, (Repetto et al.,989) ( ),,,,,,,, : ( ), ( OPEC) ;,,, ( Hartwick & Hageman, 993 ; Neumayer,2004) El Serafy (98,989), (93) ( Economic Royalty) Hicks(946) (Sustainable Income),,, El Serafy(989), Π( + r) n +, r n n r,, ;,,,,,,, (Hartwick & Hageman,993 ;Neumayer,2003),, ;,,, (2007) (2005) (2004,2007), :, (Repetto, 989) ( El Serafy ), :,El Serafy,, Neumayer (2004), 96

4 2008 5,,, El Serafy ;,,, El Serafy,, ( Hartwick & Hageman,993),El Serafy,, ( ) El Serafy El Serafy(98,989) R t : X ( ) ( R - X), ( R - X), X n ( ), R t X : R t + + r R t r R t, () : El Serafy : n R n+ t = X + + r X r R ( + r) n+ - = r( + r) n X + r r n X + () R - X = R ( + r) n+ (3), - XΠR, d : d = (2) ( + r) n+ (4) (4), ( ) r n n r, d, n 50 r 006, 5 %, r = n =,,,,,,, R t : R ( Q) = ( P t, P t - AC( Q t ) ) Q t (5), AC, Q t, (4) (5) R - X : ( + r) n+ ( P t - AC) Q t (6) El Serafy ( El Serafy ) (4) d, ( n) (6) R - X, El Serafy(98,989) El Serafy(989),, R - X = R Π( + r) n,, ( ) 97

, r n, r,el Serafy(989,2002), (ex post approach), ( ),, ; r,, n,,el Serafy (989), ( ) d, n, El Serafy r, 5 % (Neumayer,2004), 6 % 2 % BP 2 3 ( 2) : 980 2006,, 2 %, d 98 % (984) 226 %(2006) ; 6 %, d

5 , r n, r,el Serafy(989,2002), (ex post approach), ( ),, ; r,, n,,el Serafy (989), ( ) d, n, El Serafy r, 5 % (Neumayer,2004), 6 % 2 % BP 2 3 ( 2) : ,, 2 %, d 98 % (984) 226 %(2006) ; 6 %, d 303 %(984) 466 %(2006), 20, ( 3) :, d 0 %, d 2 %(, 0 % 2 % ) 6 %, d 03 %(993 ) 82 %(2006 ),,, (40 ), 2003, d, ,, ( ),,, ( R - X),,,,, (6), ( R - X)Π( P Q) : Tax = ( P - AC) ( + r) n+ P, P - AC : P AC 98 (7)

6 (LNG),,,,,, LNG (Japan, CIF) LNG (Brent dated) BP ( ),, : 2 8 Π, ;, , 2 8,,,,,,,, n AC,, ( 4 5, ) 4 ( d) 5 ( d) d ( 4),,,,, ( 5), , ; 04 0, (6 ), ; (9 ),, ; 999, d Tax, 2003, ( ),998,, %, , 0 % 66 % ; 6 %, 59, 322 % 94 % 0 7 Π,, Π (BAS,2005) (2002), 2 8, 20,,, 99

7 (2006 ) ( Π ) (d) ( %) (tax) ( %) ,, (CGE), CGE Arrow2Debreu,,, CGE 60 (Johansen,960),CGE,, 90 CGE (, 997), CEG ( ) (Social Accounting Matrix,SAM) CGE, SAM,, SAM : ( ) ( ) -,,,, ( ) ( ), ,, 42 5 SAM, 2003 SAM, (Cross Entropy Method), CGE 00

8 ( ) SAM CGE, Jian Xie (2000), CGE, 6,,,,,,,, ( ) (Constant Elasticity of Substitution, CES) : Y ( L, K) = ( L - + ( - ) K - ) Π-, = +,CES -, 0,CES ; 0,,CES,CES, CES, CES CGE 7 8 0

9 ( ),,,,,, (, ),, CGE,,, 6 % 8 % 2 %,, 8 % 2 % 6 % ( Tax ) CGE 2002, GDP GDP 2 2, 8 % 2 % 6 % 2, ( ) 8 % 2 % 6 % GDP GDP ( ) (006) (008) (02) : GDP( %) , ( %) ( %), 20 %, ( %) ; ( %) ,, GDP ( %) , ( %) ;, ( %) ,, ( %) , ( %) % 2 %, 20 %,,,,,,,,, 6 % 2 %,,, %, 27 % % ;, 2003, % 6 %, 2002,,,, Tax, 6 % 8 % 2 %, 8 % 2 % 6 % ; , 998, Tax 02

10 2008 5,998, , 397, 0 % 663 % ; 6 %, % 936 %,,, :,, ;,,, CGE,, GDP, 20 %,,, GDP 8 %, 07 %, 6 % 037 % ; 8 %, GDP 097 %, 6 %, GDP 033 %, :,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,, 20 %, 73 % 260 %, 300 %, 30 %(, 2007),, :,, ( ),,,2002 :, 4,2007 :,,2007 :,,2007 : :, 2,2007 :,,2004 :, 5,997 :, 3, 2007 : :, 6,2007 :, 6,2005 : GDP, 5 Carson et al., 994, Accounting for Mineral Resources, Issues and BEA s Initial Estimates, Survey of Current Business 74, 4,

11 El Serafy, 98, Absorptive Capacity, the Demand for Revenue, and the Supply of Petroleum, Journal of Energy and Development, 8. El Serafy, 989, The Proper Calculation of Income from Depletable Natural Resources in Environmental Accounting for Sustainable Development, A UNDP World Bank Symposium, World Bank, Washington, D. C., 0 8. El Serafy, 2002, The El Serafy Method for Estimating Income from Extraction and Its Importance for Economic Analysis, A Synoptic Paper, Revised, Arlington, Virginia. Hotelling, H., 93, The Economics of Exhaustible Resources, Journal of Political Economy, 39, PP Hicks, J. R., 946, Value and Capital. Oxford, Oxford University Press. Hartwick, 977, Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources, American Economic Review, 67, 5. Hartwick and Hageman, 993, Economic Depreciation of Mineral Stocks and the Contribution of El Serafy in : Toward Improved Accounting for the Environment, World Bank, Washington, D. C. PP Jian Xie and Sidney Saltzman, 2000, Environmental Policy Analysis, An Environmental Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Developing Countries, Journal of Policy Modeling, 22, 4, PP Institute. Johansen, Leif. 960, A Multi2Sectoral Study of Economic Growth, Amsterdam, North2Holland. Judy Clark. BAS, 2005, Industry s 2004 Finding, Development Costs Soar, Oil & Gas Journal, Neumayer, 2004, Does the Resource Curse Hold for Growth in Genuine Income as Well, World Development, Volume 32, 0. Repetto R. et al., 989, Wasting Assets, Natural Resources in the National Income Accounts, Washington D. C., World Resource United Nations, 998, The System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting, an Operational Manual, New York, United Nations, PP United Nations, 2000, The System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting, New York, United Nations, PP Von Amsberg, 993, Project Evaluation and the Depletion of Natural Capital, An Application of the Sustainability Principles, Environmental Department, World Bank,. World Bank, 995, World Bank Develops New System to Measure Wealth of Nations, Washington, D. C., World Bank, Chinese Oil and Gas Depletion Costs and Macroeconomic Impacts of Resource Tax Lin Boqiang and He Xiaoping (China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University) Abstract :Because of the scarcity of nonrenewable energy resources, their current exploitations have impacts on both future generation s welfare and sustainable economic development. Applying the user cost approach developed by El Serafy, we estimated the depletion costs of the Chinese oil and gas resources. The results indicate that while China in the recent years accelerated utilization of oil and gas resources, the user costs from their exploitation have been greatly increasing. Imposing resource tax to reflect scarcity in resource prices will correct the current undervaluation of energy resources and distortion of energy prices. The quantitative analysis of CGE model indicates that a resource tax under 20 % on oil and gas will not have large negative impact on macro2economy. The results also show that resource tax could take into account the impact of energy resource depletion on future generation s welfare and will have great significance for sustainable development. Key Words :Resource Depletion ; Resource Tax ; Economic Impact JEL Classification :C530, D430, D480 ( : ) ( : ) 04

2009 10 Bairoch,1930 1999) (Angus Maddison,1926 ) (Bairoch, 1976, 1981), 1960,1800 324, 220, 228 ;1840 206, 447, 310, 178 (1993) (1988) Peter Brecke (

2009 10 Bairoch,1930 1999) (Angus Maddison,1926 ) (Bairoch, 1976, 1981), 1960,1800 324, 220, 228 ;1840 206, 447, 310, 178 (1993) (1988) Peter Brecke ( :1600 1840 1600 1840 3 :, 1600 1840 GDP, GDP, 1600, GDP 415 ( 1990 388 ), 1840 314 (1600, 1990 318 ) 1600 1840, GDP 55 %, 0118 %, GDP 25 %, - 0112 % : GDP 20,,,,, (,1998 ;,2001),,, ( GDP) GDP,, 1600 1840