: 3 ( 400716) ( 400041) ( 225009) :, 1952 2003, :,, ;,, :,,,,, ( Goldsmith, 1969 ; Shaw, 1969 ; McKinnon,1973 ;Stiglitz,1985 ;Mayer,1990 ; King and Levine,1993a, 1993b ;Becker and Levine,2002),,,, 20 90,, 1978 2003 914 %, 814, GDP 6, 304813, 432713, 1978 16017 5517 2002 1369619 1540518,, 2318 7914 1978 2003 415, 20918 5850, 80 118 1,90 212 1, 2002 311 1 2003 312 1,, 5 1 6 1 ; 1990 2003 917 %, GDP 1195, 1517 %, 516, 0177, 1997 319 %, 3 (02BJ Y081) (04CJ Y016),, 30
2005 9,,, (1998), (M 2 ),, Greenwood Jovanovic (1990),,, U Galor Zeira Banerjee Newman (1993),,, Clark,Xu Zou (2003),,,,,,,, Greenwood Jovanovic U, Vincent,Yiu Por Chen (2004) GDP, 1978 1998,, :,,,, 1978,,,,, 1952 2003,,,, ; ; (Cointegration Test) ( Granger Causality Test) VAR ;,, 11,,,,,,, Clark,Xu Zou 31
:,,, (,1994 ;,2003),,,,, (, 1998),,,,,,,,,, Mckinnon (1993),,, (, 2004),1978,, 20 80,,,,,,, 1997, WTO,,,,,,,,,,, 20 90,,,, (,1999),, ( Vincent,Yiu Por Chen,2004),, (,2003) 21 (2003) (2002) (2003), 1999, 31000,2000 4578,2001 5912,2002 7376 2002 8148 %, 2003 8000 60 %, 6000 (2003) (2004),,,2002 19469, 14117, 5352, 1812, 684, 1152, 3000 32
2005 9 1979 (W1 Arthur Lewis) 1954, (Booke) 1933,,, 1 1978 2003,,, 20 90,,, 2 1952 2002,,, 90 1 1978 2003 2 1952 2002,,, (,2003), ;,,,,,,, ;, GDP,, ;,,,,, 33
:, (,2003), (,2003),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 11,,,,, Feder (1982) Greenwood and Jovanvic (1990) Odedokun,M1O1 (1992,1996) Pagano,M. (1993) Murinde,V. (1994), : Y = f ( K,L, F) (1) Y, K,L, F, Parente and Prescott (1991) gl, : Y = f ( K, F) min (L,gL ), > 0 (2) m = ( gl ),,,, (1) : (3), : Y = mf ( K, F) (3) dy = m 5f 5f dk + m df (4) 5 K 5 F (4),, King Levine (1993) : ( M 3 M 2 ) GDP, ;, ; King Levine 34
2005 9, Atje,R and Jovanvic (1993), ;Murinde,V. (1994), Odedokun, M. O. (1996) GDP (M 2 ΠGDP) GDP, ( ), ( ), GDP ( M 2 ΠGDP) GDP ( ) ( GDP ) ( HB XD ZQ ), : (5), : df = (6) (4), : : dy = m 5f 5f dk + m 5 K 5 F F = h ( HB, XD, ZQ) (5) 5 F 5 HB dhb + 5 F 5 XD dxd + 5 F dzq (6) 5 ZQ 5 F 5 HB dhb + 5 F 5 XD dxd + 5 F dzq (7) 5 ZQ dy = m 5f 5f 5f 5f dk + m dhb + m dxd + m dzq (8) 5 K 5 HB 5 XD 5 ZQ (8) 1, 2, 3, 4, m : dyπm = 1 dk + 2 dhb + 3 dxd + 4 dzq (9), (9),,,,, : dfr = 0 + 1 dk + 2 dhb + 3 dxd + 4 dzq + (10) FR, 0, u dk, TZ t - n, (10) : dfr t = 0 + 1 TZ t - n + 2 dhb t + 3 dxd t + 4 dzq t + t (11) (11),, (11) FR HB XD ZQ,,,, : FR t = 3 n 0 + 3 1 i TZ t - i + 3 2 i HB t - i + 3 3 i XD t - i + 3 4 i ZQ t - i + 3 i = 1 n i = 1 n i = 1 n i = 1 n i = 1 5 i FR t - i + 3 t (12) 35
: 21, 1952 2003, 3 1952 2003, 1952 2003,, GDP, 4 1952 2003 GDP,, GDP (M 2 ΠGDP) ( GDP ) ( GDP ) 4 M 2 ΠGDP,, (1981 2003 ) (1986 2003 ) 1949 1989 ( 1989 ) ( 1999 ) 1949 1989 ( 1990 ) 3 4 31, Dickey Fuller (1981) ADF,,, (Cointegration Test) Engle and Granger (1987), ( ),,, ( ) Johansen (JJ ),, ( ECM) ;, ( Granger Causality Test), Y 2 Y 1, Y 1 36
2005 9 Y 2 ( Granger2caused),,, Schwarz (SC) 11 Eviews,,, FR GDP TZ, M 2 ΠGDP GDP, HB XD ZQ ;, RL RS FR TZ HB XD ZQ RL RS, 1 FR TZ HB XD ZQ RL RS 1, 1 %, 1 ADF ( ) FR - 11657311 1 5 %( - 315005) FR - 41204378 33 1 1 %( - 411540) TZ - 21736959 1 5 %( - 315005) TZ - 51238273 33 1 1 %( - 411540) HB 11736385 1 5 %( - 315005) HB - 41184307 33 1 1 %( - 411540) XD - 21267590 1 5 %( - 315005) XD - 41425153 33 1 1 %( - 411540) ZQ - 11786615 1 5 %( - 315005) ZQ - 51313920 33 1 1 %( - 411540) RL - 21820769 2 5 %( - 315045) RL - 31871018 33 1 1 %( - 315713) RS - 11701965 1 5 %( - 315025) RS - 41407740 33 1 1 %( - 411584) : 33 1 % 21,, Johansen,, FR TZ HB XD ZQ, (Johansen,1994 ;,2004) Johansen,, VAR SC FR TZ HB XD ZQ VAR 3 ;, Q JB 3 VAR,,,, 37
: 2 2 ( :1952 2003) : 5 % 1 % 0 33 01538421 87158036 77174 85178 1 01375149 50147148 54164 61124 2 01354341 27189987 34155 40149 3 01133906 61900683 18117 23146 4 2127E - 06 01000109 3174 6140 : 33 1 % 2, 1952 2003, FR TZ HB XD ZQ : = (11000000, - 01717082, - 21211140,01748093,31517885) : FR = 01717082 TZ + 21211140 HB - 01748093 XD - 31517885 ZQ (13) (0145123) (0133061) (0122173) (0157698) (1158916) (6168814) ( - 3137389) ( - 6109709) (13) 1952 2003, 1952 2003, 1952 2003,,, ;, 1952 2003,,,,,,, FR HB FR XD FR ZQ,, FR TZ HB XD ZQ,, 5 %, HB ZQ,, (1998), ;,TZ 1 2, 1, 2, ; FR HB FR XD FR ZQ,, 10 %, HB ZQ,XD,, 38,, 1978 2003
2005 9, FR TZ HB XD ZQ,,,,,, 1978 2003,,,, FR RL RS, 1952 2002, FR RL RS ; FR RL FR RS ; 1978 2002, FR RL RS Robert. G. King Ross. Levine (1993) 80 1960 1989 31 FR RL RS, 3 3,,, 10 %,, ;,, Greenwood Jovanovic, 3 Granger ( :1952 2002) F RL RL FR Granger 1 49 21083505 01155674 FR RL Granger 1 49 01068318 01794968 RS RS FR Granger 1 49 11986996 01165381 FR RS Granger 1 49 31875691 01055033,,,,,,,, 4 4,, 10 %,,,,,, Sims(1980) (VAR) (impulse2response), VAR,, CR 1978 2003, FR TZ HB XD ZQ 10 % CR, CR, 5 % 39
: 4 Granger ( :1978 2002) F RL RL CR Granger 3 21 31105410 01060771 CR RL Granger 1 23 41283422 01051652 RS RS CR Granger 2 22 21952370 01079330 CR RS Granger 1 23 01503633 01486100 5 RL CR RS VAR 5 ( SD), 6 ( SD) : (1) ; (2), 2,, 3,, CR RL VAR (variance decomposition), 48195 % ; (3),, 4, CR RS VAR, 60 % ; (4),, ; (5) VAR, (2002),, 40
2005 9,,,, Vincent,Yiu Por Chen (2004) 6 :1952 2003,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 41
:,,,,,,,,,,2002 :,,1994 : :,,2003 :, NO. C2003026,2003 :, 1 22,2003 : :,,2002 :,,2004 : (1978 2000), Vincent,Yiu Por Chen,2004 :, 1,2001 : ( ),,2000 :, (96BJ040),1998 :,,2004 :,,2004 :, 1 Banerjee, Abhijit V. and Andrew F. Newman, 1993, Occupational Choice and the Process of Development, Journal of Political Economy 101 (2), 274 298. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirg g2kunt, Ross Levine and Vojislav Maksimovic, 2000, Financial Structure and Economic Development : Firm, Industry, and Country Evidence, Mimeo, June 14. Clarke, George, Xu, Lixin Colin and Zou, Heng2fu, 2003, Finance and Income Inequality : Test of Alternative Theories, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2984, March. Galor, Oded and Joseph Zeira, 1993, Income Distribution and Macroeconomics, Review of Economic Studies 60 (1), 35 52. Greenwood, Jeremy and Boyan Jovanovic, 1990, Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income, Journal of Political Economy 98 (5), 1076 1107. 717 38. Goldsmith, R., 1969, Financial Structure and Economic Development, New Haven : Yale University Press. King, Robert G. and Levine, Ross, 1993a, Finance and Growth : Schumpeter Might Be Right, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, King, Robert G. and Levine, Ross, 1993b, Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Growth : Theory and Evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 513 42. MacKinnon Ronald, 1973, Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington DC: Brookings Institution. Mayer, C., 1990, Financial Systems, Corporate Finance and Economic Development, in G. Hubbard (ed. ), Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance and Investment, Chicago : The University of Chicago Press. Shaw, Edward, 1969, Financial Deeping in Economic Development, Oxford, Oxford University Press. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1985, Credit Markets and the Control of Capital, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 17 (2), pp. 133 52. Johansen, S., 1994, The Role of the Constant and Linear Terms in Integration Analysis of Nonstationary Variables, Econometric Reviews, 13, P5 P572. 763 81. Feder, Gershon, 1982, On Exports and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, 12,59 73. Pagano,M., 1993, The Flotation of Companies on the Stock Market : A Co2ordination Failure Model, European Economic Review, 36, pp. Atje,R and Jovanvic, 1993, Stock Markets and Development, European Economic Review, 37, pp. 632 40. Murinde,V., 1994, Emerging Stock Markets : A Survey of Leading Issues, Discussion Paper Series in Financial and Banking Economics, Cardiff Business School, FABERΠ94Π3Π1ΠB. Odedokun, M. O., 1992, Supply2leading and Demand2following Relationship between Economic Activity and Development Banking in Developing Countries : An International Evidence, Singapore Economic Review, 37, pp. 46 58. 42
2005 9 Odedokun,M. O., 1996, Alternative Econometric Approaches for Analyzing the Role of the Financial Sector in Economic Growth : Time2 series Evidence from LDCs, Journal of Development Economics, 50 (1), 119 146. Financial Development and the Income Gro wth of Farmer in China Wen Tao, Ran Guanghe and Xiong Deping (Southwest University ;Chongqing University ; Yangzhou University) Abstract:Based on a macro2model in terms of Chinaπs financial development, rural financial development and farmer income growth, this paper aims to identify the real relationships between the financial development and farmer income growth in China over the period 1952 2003. Using annual national time2series data, Co2integration Tests, Granger Causality Tests and VAR analysis indicate that China financial development has definitely negative effects on the farmer income growth. The results show that, if we directly substitute the positive relationship between financial development and economic growth to the relationship between financial development and farmer income growth, and assume the financial development as the prerequisite of the farmer income growth, it will not be proper with the reality of China economy. Moreover, the paper verifies the proposition that to prevent the structure and function from unbalance is vital for China financial development. Some policy suggestions are given to promote the farmer income growth through China financial development. Key Words : Financial Development ; Rural Financial Development ; Farmer Income JEL Classification : G180,I310,P340 ( : ) ( : ) 43