/ (1099.HK) - 16-545,68-2009/09/15 - + - 2009/09/23 IPO 545,68 2.08 / A () 1637/- B /H -/- A 2009-8-24 yingzz@swsresearch.com luojing@swsresearch.com (8621)63295888 430 yefei@swsresearch.com 99 862163295888 http://www.swsresearch.com
1... 4 1.1...4 1.2...6 1.3...8 2. 10 2.1...10 2.2...11 3.... 13 3.1 13 3.2...14 3.3...15 4.... 16 4.1...16 4.2...17 5.... 19 6.... 20 7.... 21 8.... 22
1 1.1 2008 10% 2003-2008 36% 16% 2003 2008 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A
1.2 1998 1950 03 5 51% 49% 2 47% IPO 37.2% 35.3% 27.5% 20031 20042 600196 96% 90% 51% 49% 51% 92% 40% 9% 20099 600196 20086 600196 100% 100% 51% 49% 51% 49% 0.5% 4% 72% 27.5% 96%
50~80 80~90 1950 5 1988 97 98 99 050658.67% 06 51% 96% (600196) 49% 200003 0443.33% 600511 (600196) 51% 49%
1.3 04 00002843.33%05 06 60051158.67% 51% 49% 100% 600196 0.5% 72% 27.5% 90% 90% 60% 44% 60% 38% 60% 63.61% 80% 90% 70% 38.94% 86.05% 90% 60% 70 28 12 49 5.6 84 5.5 10 7.8 4.9 6.2 13 4.9 28 5 4.6 2008 600511 2002 11 06 58.67% 1999-2008 21% 39% 2009 23% 27% 2-3 30% 2-3 30%
9 18 0000282004 43.3% 2004-2008 52% 55% 3 2009 27% 36% Revanex 2-3 9 18
2. 2.1 2009 23% 90 2020 3-5 70% IMS 01-09 3
2.2 90 Mckesson Cardina 08 10% 9% 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2015 2015 2020 70% 5000 Mckesson Cardina ABC IMS
2008 2006 1 530 437 355 2 224 177 153 3 190 159 129 4 148 130 94 5 126 109 90 6 122 101 84 7 81 69 58 8 79 66 57 9 71 63 52 10 55 48 43 4630 4026 3360 20.4% 19.2% 18.9% 35.1% 33.8% 33.2% 1 272 205 123 2 125 108 97 3 111 84 62 4 82 68 56 5 81 67 54 6 81 66 52 7 53 47 35 8 52 45 35 9 44 35 35 10 41 32 33 3000 2572 2227 16.9% 15.4% 12.7% 31.4% 29.4% 26.1%
3. 3.1 2009 1-5 93% 20 25 17,600 4,300 4723 36.4% 56.2% 90% 2009 1-5 49% 06 44% 5 42% 06 50% 8 44% 22.3% 20% 7.8% 42% 19% 19% 15.2%
06 3.2 632 186 44.1% 19 90 160 2006 207 2006 608
3.3 138 25 2008 3490 09 3 1 29
4. 4.1 03
4.2, 11 2 2008 446 190 81 70 49 28 224 148 446() 48 13 126 84 122 10 8 71 79 28 5 6
08
5. A 08 20% ROE 5-7 Bloomberg
6. 2009-2011 25%30%25% 15%15%15% 20%20%20% EPSIPO EPSIPO
7. top3 IPO 16 / 5.46 84.1 09 36 8185 15% 2009-2011 0.39 0.58 0.80 2009 08 10% 30%6 26 2010 40 EPS PE PB 08 Y 09 Y 10 Y 11Y 08 Y 09 Y 10 Y 11Y 08 Y 09 Y 10 Y 11Y Cardinal Health Inc 27.9 10032 3.79 3.50 1.94 2.13 7 8 14 13 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 Amerisourcebergen Corp 21.8 6468 2.86 1.66 1.81 2.01 8 13 12 11 1.2 2.3 2.0 1.9 Mckesson Corp 58.5 15559 3.33 4.07 4.27 4.61 18 14 14 13 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 3.33 3.50 1.94 2.13 8 13 14 13 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.9 Celesio Ag 27.7 4719 1.82 2.23 2.55 2.78 15 12 11 10 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Andreae-Noris Zahn Ag 33.0 352 0.88 2.74 3.04 3.28 38 12 11 10 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Galenica Ag-Reg 351.7 2286 32.0 34.5 33.6 32.9 11 10 10 11 4.4 3.2 2.6 2.1 United Drug Plc 3.6 846 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.42 11 10 10 9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.53 2.23 2.55 2.78 11 10 10 10 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Mediceo Paltac Holding Co 14.0 3414 1.07 0.64 0.46 0.68 13 22 30 21 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Suzuken Co Ltd 33.4 3136 2.18 0.80 1.80 1.90 15 42 19 18 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 Alfresa Holdings Corp 40.7 2006 3.98 1.79 2.11 2.49 10 23 19 16 1.0-0.9 0.8 Toho Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 13.8 838 1.41-0.42 0.89 1.14 10-16 12 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.79 0.72 1.35 1.52 12 23 19 17 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 3.51 1010 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.17 45 32 26 20 11.0 8.5 6.5 5.0 1.07 209 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 66 60 61 57 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 1.17 147 0.01 NA NA NA 82 59 48 NA 2.1 NA NA NA 2.18 947 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.13 38 26 21 17 8.6 5.6 4.4 3.4 3.00 1435 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.11 51 40 32 27 11.8 7.8 6.6 5.5 1.23 371 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.06 84 38 28 22 5.2 3.4 3.2 3.4 1.43 228 0.02 0.02 0.03 NA 78 61 56 NA 5.0 NA NA NA 1.78 1015 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.06 85 44 35 29 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.3 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.09 72 42 34 24 5.1 4.7 4.0 3.4 Bloomberg 2009 9 21
8.
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 23.3% 25.0% 30.0% 25.0% 14.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 16.7% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% EBITDA EBIT
(%) (%) (%) ()
6 Buy 20 Outperform 520 (Neutral) 55 (Underperform) 5 6 Overweight (Neutral) (Underweight) 300