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4 7195/-24 4

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6 Balassa, Samuelson, purchasing power parity Law of one price: LOP 2 Samuelson, PPP is the disarmingly simple empirical proposition that, once converted to a common, national price levels should be equal (Rogoff, 1996, p. 647). 5 Manzur (22) succinctly summarizes the essence of purchasing power parity: Purchasing power parity (PPP) gives the relationship between exchange rates and nationsl price levels. The absolute PPP states that the exchange rate is equal to the ratio of domestic to foreign pricese. According to the relative PPP, the change in the exchange rate is equal to the inflation differential. As a central concept in international finance, PPP has useful wide-ranging applications (p. 79). 6 Under the skin of any international economist lies a deep-seated belief in some variant of the PPP theory of exchange rate (Dornbusch, R. and Krugmank. P, p. 54) 6

7 a basket of goods traded goodsnon-traded goods 7 8 As commented in Kravis and Lipsey (1988) The concept of purchasing power parity and the law of one price are so convenient and so firmly embedded in trade theory and exchange-rate theory that is requires some effort to put them aside to discuss national price levels, but the widely fluctuating exchange rates of the 197s and the 198s have compelled attention to these issues (p. 474). 9 Samuelson1964mobile and domestic 1 Bhagwati( 7

8 11 As commented in Balassa (1964), In the present instance, I have shown that, by incorporating non-traded goods in the model, the existence of a systematic relationship between purchasing power parities and exchange rates is indicated in inter-country as well as inter-temporal comparison (pp ). 12 8

9 Sachs and Larrian chronically imbalance, or fundamental disequilibrium (revaluation or devaluation) - 14 Officer1974, 1976a, 1976b-Edwards and Savastano (1999) 15 9

10 Edwards and Savastano (1999p.36) Hsieh (1982) Marston Ito et al. Chinn, Menzie David (1997) GDP IMF(International Monetary Fund) Bank of Labor Statistics) ( Organizsation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Labour Organization) Development Bank) 17 outlier Cyprus, Czech Republic ( ), Estonia, Hungary , Latvia 23 54, Lithuania , Malta, Poland 382 9, Slovakia and Slovenia World Bank, WDR Maastricht Treaty convergence criteria1 EMU EMU 1

11 - Halpern and Wyplosz (21) % 1719 Egert et al.,(23) Mihaljek and Klau (23) Wincenciak (25) 2 4 IMF Williamson Williamson1983p. 5 Edwards Montiel (1999pp238-24) - demand-side fundamentals % 4 GDP 3%5 GDP % Wincenciak25 3 ) Ricardo-Balassa David Ricardo (1821/1971) is considered to have been the first to postulate explicitly the existence of a negative relation between economic growth and the equilibrium relative price of tradables to nontradables. Later a number of authors, including Pigou (1922), pointed out within the context of the PPP debate that there is a tendency for the relative prices of tradables to nontradables to differ across countries; higher-income countries would tend to have a lower relative price between these two groups of goods. However, it was only in Balassa s (1964) reinterpretation of the PPP theory that the theoretical foundations of the proposition were clearly set forwardp

12 World Bank World Development Report 26. GNP PPP GNP

13 Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg χ 2 (1) χ 2 (1) 1%

15 Kravis and Lipsey Frankel Frankel 15

16 283 World Bank World Development Report GNP PPP GNP Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg χ 2 (1) χ 2 (1) 1%

17 y=1.92 y1hat e e1=.351e

18 / % 24 69% 57.8% 94.7% 7195/

20 GDP IMF IFS GDP Asian Development BankKey Indicators Penn World Table IFS CPI Penn Table Penn Table IFS CPI Penn Table 11 1/3 2

21 34.6% 93.3% 58.6% 118.3% % 17%195 1% 24 % 36% 34% 2% 1% % 69.3% fixed effects Log RER = log Y RER Y t.5 36.R 2 =.863n= fixed effects Log RER= log Y RER Y t R 2 =.63n= % % % % 26 21

22 /

23 Balassa, Bela (1964): The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72, No. 6 (Dec., 1964), pp

24 Bhagwati, Jagdish N Why are services cheaper in the poor countries, The Economic Journal, Vol. 94, No. 347 (Jun., 1984), pp Cassel, G. Abnormal deviations in international exchanges The Economic Journal, Vol. 28, No. 112 (Dec., 1918), pp Chinn, Menzie David (1997): The usual suspects? Productivity and demand shocks and Asia-Pacific real exchange rates, NBER Working Papers, No. 618, Jul., Dornbusch, R. and P. Krugman (1976): Flexible exchange rates in the short run, Brookings Paper in Economic Activity, Vol. 1976, No. 3, pp Edwards, Sabastian1989Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment: Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Edwards, Sebastian and Savastano, Miguel A. Exchange rates in emerging economies: What do we know? What do we need to know? NBER Working Papers, No. 7228, July Egert, Balazs; Drine, Imed; Lommatzsch, Kersten and Rault, Christophe (23): The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality, Journal of Comparative Economics, 31, pp Frankel, Jeffrey (24): On the Renminbi: The choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate and adjustment under a flexible rate Paper presented at The High-Level Seminar on Foreign Exchange System held in Dalian, China, May 26-27, 24. Halpern, Laszlo and Wyplosz, Charles (21): Economic transformation and real exchange rates in the 2s: The Balassa-Samuelson connection, Mimeo by United Nations Economic Commission for European Economic Survey of Europe (UN/ECE), Geneva. Mar., 21. Hsieh, David A. (1982): The determinants of the real exchange rate: The productivity approach Journal of International Economics, 12 (1982), pp Ito, Takatoshi; Isard, Peter and Symansky, Steven, Economic growth and real exchange rate: An overview of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in Asia NBER Working Papers No. 5979, March Kravis Irving B. and Lipsey, Robert L. (1988): National price levels and the prices of tradables and nontradables AER Papers and Proceedings, May 1988, pp Manzur, Meher (22): Purchasing power parity and international competitiveness in Manzur, Meher (ed.,). Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Commodity Prices, Edward Elgar, 22, pp Marston Richard C. (1997) Real exchange rates and productivity growth in the 24

25 United States and Japan Paper prepared for the Conference on Real-Financial Linkages in Open Economics, American Enterprise Institute, Washington DC., January 3-31, later published in S. Arndt and Richardson (ed.,) Real Financial Linkages among Open Economies, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, pp Mihaljek, Dubravko and Klau, Marc (23): The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: A disaggregated analysis, BIS Working Papers, No. 143, Oct. 23 (Bank for International Settlements). Montiel, Peter J The long-run equilibrium real exchange rate: Conceptual issues and empirical research, in Lawrence E. Hinkle and Peter J. Montiel (1999) Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries. A World Bank Research Publication, Oxford University Press, 1999, pp Officer Lawrence H. (1974): Purchasing-power-parity and factor price equalization Kyklos, Vol. 27, pp Officer Lawrence H. (1976a): The purchasing-power-parity theory of exchange rates: A review article International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 23, No.1, pp. 1-, March Officer Lawrence H. (1976b): The productivity bias in purchasing-power-parity: An econometric investigation International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 23, No.1, pp. 1-, March Rogoff, Kenneth (1996): The purchasing power parity puzzle, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol, 34, No.2 (Jun., 1996), pp Sachs Jeffrey D. and Larrain B. Felipe (1992): Macroeconomics in the Global Economy, Prentice Hall, Samuelson, Paul (1964): Theoretical notes on trade problems, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46, No. 2, May 1964, pp Williamson, John (1983): The Exchange Rate System. Policy Analysis in International Economics, 5, Sep Washington, Institute for International Economics. Wincenciak, Leszek (25): Balassa-Samuelson effect in Poland during the transition: Real versus nominal convergence, Working Paper, Mactoeconomics and Trade Theory Division, Faculty of Economics, Warsaw University, Nov. 17,

Engel rer = ner + p * - p = ner α * p * T + α * p * N α p T + αp N = ner + p * T - p T + α * p * N - p *

Engel rer = ner + p * - p = ner α * p * T + α * p * N α p T + αp N = ner + p * T - p T + α * p * N - p * * 1997 1 2010 9 60% 80% 20% 40% - - - 2007-2007 * 100875 xujianwei@ gmail. com pamelapanda@ 126. com Betts C. M. CCER 78 2011 7 1997 1 2010 9 - Engel 1993 1999 rer = ner + p * - p = ner + 1 - α * p * T