Equity Research Information Technology Sep, 1 Technology Monthly (Oct 1) US tech companies to kick off 3Q1 results season Hang Seng Index falling for

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1 股票研究信息技术 1 年 9 月日科技行业月报 (1 年月 ) 美科技公司即将开启 3Q1 财报季恒生指数连续五个月下跌恒生指数 9 月份下跌 3.8%, 年初至今跌幅 11.7% 全球最大笔记本电脑外壳制造商巨腾国际 (3336 HK, 买入 ) 是我们的 9 月优选个股, 月内股价上涨 29%, 涨幅领先我们覆盖的所有个股我们相信, 股价反弹一方面由估值修复驱动本轮反弹前巨腾严重超跌, 股价大幅低于每股净资产, 预测市盈率也只有低个位数 ; 另一方面归因于市场预期全球 PC 市场收缩步伐将于 3Q1 放缓另外, 半导体组装设备生产商 ASM 太平洋 (22 HK, 持有 ) 9 月份表现最为逊色其竞争对手荷兰公司 BESI (BESI NA, 未予评级 ) 由于客户订单不佳,9 月初下调 3Q1 营收指引, 导致 ASM 太平洋股价月内大跌 16% 何伟基, CFA 证监会中央编号 AFP8 josephho@gfgroup.com.hk 朱然证监会中央编号 BDK8 zhuran@gfgroup.com.hk 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦 29 楼 8 月份中国智能手机需求有所提升中国移动 (941 HK, 未予评级 ) 8 月份净新增 2,00 万 4G 网络注册用户, 该数目创历史新高我们认为, 参考中国移动 4G 净新增用户数, 仍便于推断中国智能手机出货增长势头中国最大智能手机摄像模块制造商舜宇光学科技 (2382 HK, 买入 ), 受益于终端需求改善,8 月手机摄像模块出货量同比增加 12% 环比增加 6% 至 1,970 万件, 创月度出货量新高前八月累计出货量同比增长 %, 符合公司全年增长 % 的目标而手机显示屏及触摸屏生产商信利国际 (732 HK, 持有 ) 销售则持续低于预期, 平均价格受压加上行业竞争激烈,8 月销售额同比下降 14% 同时, 公司宣布已终止分拆核心子公司进行 A 股上市的计划月前瞻美国科技公司将于月份开启 3Q1 财报季微软 (MSFT US, 未予评级 ) 及苹果 (AAPL US, 未予评级 ) 将分别于月 22 日和月 27 日公布 79 月季度业绩苹果公司表示, iphone 6S/6S+ 初步销售数据喜人,9 月 2 日产品上市后三天共售出 1,0 万部, 高于去年 iphone 6/6+ 在上市后三天售出 1,000 万部彭博一致预期苹果 3Q1 销售同比增长 21% 至亿美元 ( 即公司指引范围 490 亿亿美元的高端 ) 此外,Gartner/IDC 将于月初公布 3Q1 全球 PC 出货量预测 ( 去年公布时间月 8 日 ), 全球 PC 出货同比收缩的步伐预计放缓至个位数级别 (IDC 数据显示 2Q1 出货量同比下跌 11.8%) 另外, 微软将于月 6 日在纽约举行活动, 发布 Surface Pro 4 及其他新产品本月优选个股 : 中国软件国际 (34 HK, 买入 ), 公司与华为的合作日渐加深, 新兴业务发展迅猛, 预计将带动公司 FY1 业绩同比大增 40% 目前股价对应 17.8 倍 FY1E P/E 图表 1: 覆盖及关注个股 9 月股价表现 (%) 资料来源 : 彭博本页为英文报告原文之概要中英文版本如有不符, 概以英文版本为准

2 Equity Research Information Technology Sep, 1 Technology Monthly (Oct 1) US tech companies to kick off 3Q1 results season Hang Seng Index falling for fifth consecutive month The Hang Seng Index fell 3.8% in Sep and was down 11.7% YTD. The share price of Ju Teng (3336 HK, Buy), the world s largest notebook casing maker and our top pick for Sep, rose 29% during the month, making it the best performer among stocks under our coverage. We believe the rebound was mainly driven by rerating (the stock was heavily oversold and was trading at a deep discount to book value and a lowsingle digit forward P/E before the rebound) and market expectations for the contraction of the global PC market to moderate in 3Q1. On the other hand, ASM Pacific (22 HK, Hold), a semiconductor packaging equipment maker, was the worst performer in Sep. Its share price dropped 16% during the month, as Netherlandsbased competitor BESI (BESI NA, NR) lowered its 3Q1 revenue guidance in early Sep citing weakness in customer orders as the reason. Joseph Ho, CFA SFC CE No. AFP8 josephho@gfgroup.com.hk Ryan Zhu, CPA SFC CE No. BDK8 zhuran@gfgroup.com.hk GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited 29/F, Li Po Chun Chambers 189 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Pickup in smartphone demand in China in Aug. China Mobile s (941 HK, NR) monthly net 4G subscriber additions set a record high of.m in Aug. China Mobile s 4G net additions figure remains a handy proxy for smartphone shipment momentum in China, in our opinion. Sunny Optical (2382 HK, Buy), the largest smartphone camera module maker in China, benefited from the pickup in endmarket demand and reported record high monthly handset camera module shipments of 19.7m units (+12% YoY/+6% MoM) in Aug. Sunny Optical s handset camera shipments for 8M1 rose % YoY, which was largely in line with the 1 fullyear target of % YoY growth. In contrast, the sales momentum of Truly (732 HK, Hold), a handset display and touch panel maker, continues to disappoint, with a 14% YoY decline in sales in Aug amid ASP pressure and intense industry competition. The company has also announced the termination of a plan to spin off a core subsidiary in the Ashare market. Oct preview US technology companies will kick off the 3Q1 results season in Oct. Microsoft (MSFT US, NR) and Apple (AAPL US, NR) will release their quarterly results (for the JulSep period) on Oct 22 and 27 respectively. The preliminary sales figures of the iphone 6S/6S+ were favorable, with a total of 13m units of iphone 6S/6S+ sold within three days of their release on Sep 2, up from m units for iphone 6/6+ a year ago, according to Apple. Bloomberg consensus expects Apple to deliver 21% YoY sales growth for 3Q1 to US$1bn (reaching the high end of the company s guidance of US$49bn1bn). In addition, Gartner/IDC will release their estimates of 3Q1 global PC shipments in early Oct (last year: Oct 8). The pace of the YoY contraction in global PC shipments is expected to moderate to the singledigit level (shipments were down 11.8% in 2Q1, according to IDC). Separately, Microsoft will host an event in New York on Oct 6 to announce its new products (Surface Pro 4 and others). Stock pick for the month: ChinaSoft (34 HK, Buy) is expected to see strong net profit growth of 40% YoY in FY1 driven by its deepening cooperation with Huawei and its rapidlygrowing emerging services business. The stock is currently trading at 17.8x FY1E P/E. Figure 1: Share price performance of stocks under our coverage and those on our watch list in Sep 1 (%) Source: Bloomberg; UP = Underperform Page 2

3 Sector report Sep, 1 Figure 2: Truly monthly sales (HK$ bn) Figure 3: Sunny Optical monthly camera module shipments (m units) M1: + % YoY M1: % YoY Figure 4: TCL Comm monthly handset shipments (m units) Figure : China Mobile user base by network type (Jul 1) M1: +% YoY 4G, 28% 3G, 2% 2G, 47% 14 1 Figure 6: China Mobile monthly net 4G user additions (m) 2 Figure 7: China Mobile 4G user base (m)

4 Sector report Sep, 1 Figure 8: Monthly share price performance (rolling twelve months) (% change) 14 1 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep AAC Tech (18, Hold) 3.0 (1.7) (9.0) (6.8) (14.0) (0.8) ASM Pacific (22, Hold) 11.0 (7.4) (6.3) (4.9) (7.2) (4.7) (8.6) (14.) (1.8) (31.7) Boyaa (434, Hold) (.) (9.0) (13.9) (.4) (0.4) (27.3) (34.7) (13.) (3.0) (44.1) BYD Elec (28, Accumulate) 2.6 (.9) (13.7) (17.1) (38.6) (.) 7.4 (3.9) Chanjet (188, Hold) (3.1) 7.4 (12.) 8.7 (1.4) (33.7) (32.) (26.) (0.4) (.8) ChinaSoft (34, Buy) 1.6 (2.3) (14.) 13.3 (2.0) (22.) (31.4) (12.4) Coolpad (2369, UP) (12.1) 2.6 (7.0) (7.) (3.8) (3.6) (36.1) (16.3) 0.7 (.2) FIH (38, Hold) 2.2 (2.4) (13.4) (0.9) (13.6) (14.8) Forgame (484, Hold) (2.2) 3.9 (2.) (7.1) (1.9) (9.2) (31.8) (13.3) 7.9 (3.4) IGG (799, Buy) 7.2 (9.7) (18.1) (.0) (11.) (31.9) (24.3) Juteng (3336, Buy) (3.6) (6.3) (.7) (1.3) 7.7 (1.6) (22.1) (8.6) (13.2) KBL (1888, Buy) (3.7) 0.0 (9.) (6.8) 26.7 (1.3) (6.3) (7.6) (9.7) Kingdee (268, Buy) (9.1) (2.) (27.) (.6) Kingsoft (3888, Buy) (0.9) 1. (17.1).9 (4.3) (1.9) (.8) (21.1) (7.6) (1.9) NetDragon (777, Buy) 3.8 (1.7).1 (0.9) (2.7) (23.7) (26.1) (1.) Ourgame (6899 HK, Buy) (1.7) (2.3) (31.6) (28.0) (32.2) (9.) (1.0) 49.2 Sunny Optical (2383, Buy) (2.3) (11.4) (2.0) (0.7) (11.) (13.6) TCL Comm (2618, Buy) (18.2) (1.0) (4.4) (4.9) (12.7) (16.8) (13.1) 6.3 (22.7) Tongda (698, Buy) (.7) 1.0 (8.9) (8.) (12.7) (8.4) Truly (732, Hold) (11.7) (11.4) (.9) (.0) (18.0) (18.) (26.) 2.6 (37.0) VTech (3, Hold) (1.7) 1.3 (0.1) (2.4) (.3) 0.7 (6.2) (7.1) 2. (17.4) Lenovo (992,NR) (1.2) (4.7) (6.3) (1.6) 19.1 (.4) 18.4 (8.2) (12.7) (21.7) (24.4) 2.7 (36.0) ZTE (763, NR) 9.2 (1.3) (9.3) (12.2) (12.6) (9.4) Hang Seng Index 4.6 (0.0) (1.6) (2.) (4.3) (6.1) (12.0) (3.8) (11.7) Shanghai Composite Index (0.8) (7.3) (14.3) (12.) (4.8) (.6) Source: Bloomberg YTD 4

5 行业报告 1 年 9 月日评级定义基准指数 : 香港恒生指数时间范围 : 12 个月公司评级买入预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 1% 以上增持预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 1% 持有减持行业评级推荐中性谨慎分析师承诺预期公司股价表现相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 % 和 +% 之间预期公司股价表现弱于基准指数 % 以上预期行业将跑赢基准指数 % 以上预期行业相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 % 和 +% 之间预期行业将跑输基准指数 % 或以上主要负责编写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此申明, 本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法此外, 本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与, 现在不与, 未来也将不与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关权益披露 (1) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 自营交易部及 / 或其关联公司并未持有本研究报告所述公司之股份 (2) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 及 / 或其关联公司跟本研究报告所述公司在过去 12 个月内并没有任何投资银行业务的关系 (3) 分析师及其联系人士并无担任本研究报告所述公司之高级职员, 亦无拥有任何所述公司财务权益或持有股份免责条款本研究报告由广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司 ( 广发证券 ( 香港 ) ) 分发本研究报告仅供参考之用, 并不构成证券出售要约或证券买卖的邀请本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用本研究报告所评论的证券可能在某些地方不能出售本研究报告绝无意图让居住在法律或政策不允许本研究报告流通或者分发的司法权区的人士阅读本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性广发证券 ( 香港 ) 不对因使用本研究报告的内容而导致的损失承担任何责任, 除非法律法规有明确规定投资涉及风险, 证券的价值及收益可能会波动, 过去的表现不能代表未来的业绩本研究报告所评论的证券或表达的意见未必适合个别人士之投资目标财政状况或个人需要, 客户不应以本研究报告取代其独立判断或仅根据本研究报告做出决策如有需要, 应先咨询专业意见广发证券 ( 香港 ) 可发出其他与本研究报告所载信息不一致及有不同结论的报告本研究报告反映研究人员的不同观点见解及分析方法, 并不代表广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或者其关联公司的本研究报告所载资料意见及推测仅反映研究人员于发出本研究报告当日的判断, 可随时更改且不予通告我们的销售人员交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略我们的自营交易部可能会做出与本研究报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或其关联方或其各自的董事高级人员分析员及雇员可能持有本研究报告所评论之任何证券的权益读者在阅读本研究报告时应留意有关权益披露 ( 如有披露 ) 版权所有 : 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司未经广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦 29 楼电话 : Fax: 网站 :

Equity Research Information Technology Tech Monthly (Apr 16) Value stocks outperformed in March Value stocks outperformed in March The Hang Seng Index

Equity Research Information Technology Tech Monthly (Apr 16) Value stocks outperformed in March Value stocks outperformed in March The Hang Seng Index 股票研究信息技术 16 年 4 月日科技行业月报 (16 年 4 月 ) 价值股三月份表现领先价值股三月份表现领先恒生指数三月份上升 8.7%, 上证指数反弹 11.8% 价值股持续吸引资金买入巨腾国际 (6 HK, 买入 ) 按销量计算是全球最大的笔记