EDUCATION AND TRAINING SECTOR BECOMES A NEW FORCE IN THE OFFICE MARKET In order to attract high-profile clients, educational and training institutions

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "EDUCATION AND TRAINING SECTOR BECOMES A NEW FORCE IN THE OFFICE MARKET In order to attract high-profile clients, educational and training institutions"

震贾
5 years ago
Views:

1 RESEARCH 研究报告 SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q 上海写字楼市场报告 2014 第四季度

2 EDUCATION AND TRAINING SECTOR BECOMES A NEW FORCE IN THE OFFICE MARKET In order to attract high-profile clients, educational and training institutions are trying to promote their corporate image by leasing Grade-A offices. Emerging business districts have become their preferred areas, due to the reasonable rents and comfortable environments. In Q4 2014, 250,630 sqm of new Grade-A office space launched in Shanghai, all located in emerging business districts. No new supply launched in CBD areas. Shanghai s Grade-A office market performed well in Q4; rents rebounded, while the vacancy rate dropped quarter on quarter. As the completion of a number of new Shanghai office buildings has been delayed and new landmark projects will be completed in all the city s business areas, Shanghai s Grade-A office market will face intensive competition in Varying rental trends will appear in different areas: the completion of Shanghai Tower will further lift rents in Little Lujiazui; landlords in emerging business districts will be cautious with asking rents, due to the large anticipated supply in these areas in 2015; while in Huaihai Middle Road, the soon-to-becompleted Two ICC may push up the average Grade-A office rent in the Xuhui District. TABLE 1 Shanghai Grade-A office market indicators Indicator Q figure QoQ change Outlook (Q1 2015) New supply 250,630 sqm 50% Rental RMB 9.0 / sqm / day 1.5% Vacancy rate 3.0% 1.2 percentage points Capital value RMB 52,656 / sqm 0.5% Yield 6.2% 2

3 SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q RESEARCH RENTS AND PRICES Due to limited new supply and strong demand in CBD areas, Grade-A office rents in these areas experienced a major rally, driving up the overall average rent of Grade-A offices in Shanghai. In Q4, the average rent of Grade-A offices grew 1.5% quarter on quarter to reach RMB9.0 per sqm per day. Demand from the financial sector for Grade-A office space in Pudong remained strong. Grade-A office space in Little Lujiazui that was vacant in the third quarter was absorbed by local financial companies in Q4, while areas surrounding Little Lujiazui such as Huamu and Zhuyuan also remained sought after. As CBD areas in Pudong were almost fully occupied, Pudong s average Grade-A office rent increased 2.0% quarter on quarter to reach RMB9.8 per sqm per day. In the strata-title sales market, the average price remained stable in Q4, settling at RMB52,656 per sqm. FIGURE 1 Grade-A office rental and price indices 2003Q1= Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q TABLE 2 Grade-A office market indicators, Q Submarket Rental Index Price Index Rent (RMB/sqm/day) Rent % change (QoQ) Vacancy Rate Vacancy rate percentage point change (QoQ) Huangpu % 4.2% 2.7 Jing an % 1.0 Pudong % 0.3% 0.8 Xuhui % Changning % 5.5% 1.5 TABLE 3 Major Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q District Building Zone Area (sqm) Rent (RMB/sqm/day) Pudong SWFC Middle 4, Pudong IFC Phase II Low 1, TABLE 4 Major Grade-A office strata-title sales transactions, Q District Building Floor Area (sqm) Price (RMB/sqm) Xuhui Poly West Bund Centre floors 12,490 55,479 Hongkou North Bund 21 st floor unit ,168 3

4 SUPPLY, TAKE-UP AND VACANCY The completion of SKY SOHO in Linkong brought 128,130 sqm of new office space to the market. In the first quarter of 2015, Two ICC is scheduled to complete, adding 58,000 sqm of Grade-A office space to the market. In Q4 2014, the overall Grade-A office vacancy rate decreased 1.2 percentage points quarter on quarter to settle at 3.0%. In emerging business districts, the education and training sector became a new force in the leasing market. Following the leasing of a 4,000-sqm office space in Baodi Square, Yangpu District in the third quarter by an international educational institution, a local educational body leased 9,000- sqm office space in Hongqiao Vanke Centre in Hongqiao CBD in Q4. FIGURE 2 Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy rate 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, '000 sqm Grade-A office supply (left) Grade-A office net absorption (left) Vacancy rate (right) % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% INVESTMENT MARKET Shanghai s property investment market recorded a total transaction value of RMB28.8 billion, a drop of 12.2% year on year, with offices remaining as one of the most favoured asset classes for real estate investors. Three major office sales transactions with a total investment volume of RMB4.44 billion were recorded in Q4. TABLE 5 Shanghai major en-bloc sales transactions, Q Project Purchaser Seller Transaction price Poly West Bund Centre (13 19 floors) New Rich Port Centre (En bloc) Guoco Changfeng City No. 6 Office Tower (En bloc) MediaTek Inc Poly Group RMB692 million Gopher Asset Future Holdings Shanghai Xinfugang Real Estate Co Shanghai Xinhaolong Property Development RMB3.13 billion RMB623 million 4

5 上海写字楼市场报告 2014 第四季度研究报告教育培训行业开始崭露头角为了吸引高端商务人群, 教育培训机构正在通过入驻甲级写字楼来提升其商业形象而合适的租金以及舒适的环境使得新兴商务区成为了教育行业的首选 2014 年第四季度, 共有 250,630 平方米新增甲级写字楼竣工交付, 且都位于新兴商务区, 中央商务区未见新增供应本季度上海甲级写字楼市场表现良好, 租金呈现上升趋势, 空置率也有所下降由于 2014 年部分项目延迟推出, 加上 2015 年各个写字楼区域都将有标杆性项目竣工,2015 年整个上海甲级写字楼市场将面临竞争激烈不同区域将呈现不同的租金走势 : 上海中心的推出可能会进一步抬高小陆家嘴区域的租金水平 ; 而在新兴商务区由于 2015 年巨大的供应量, 业主对于项目的租金定位将会十分谨慎 ; 对于淮海中路区域, 即将竣工交付的上海环贸广场二期将有可能拉升该区域的整体租金水平表一上海甲级写字楼市场参考指标指标 2014 年第四季度数字按季变幅预测 (2015 年第一季度 ) 新增供应 250,630 平方米 50% 租金人民币 9.0 元 / 平方米 / 天 1.5% 空置率 3.0% 1.2 个百分点资本价值人民币 52,656 元 / 平方米 0.5% 回报率 6.2% 5

6 租金及价格鉴于各中央商务区新增供应有限而租赁需求仍然保持旺盛, 中央商务区内写字楼租金有较大涨幅, 并带动了整体市场租金水平的上扬第四季度, 上海甲级写字楼平均租金环比上涨 1.5% 至每天每平方米人民币 9.0 元金融行业对于浦东甲级写字楼的需求依旧十分强劲第三季度小陆家嘴区域甲级写字楼空置面积在四季度迅速被内资金融企业消化, 与此同时陆家嘴周边的花木竹园等区域也炙手可热由于浦东主要商务区几乎满租, 第四季度浦东甲级写字楼平均租金环比上涨 2.0% 至每天每平方米人民币 9.8 元散售市场上, 第四季度写字楼整体均价与上季度持平, 为每平方米人民币 52,656 元图一甲级写字楼租金及价格指数 2003Q1= Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q 租金指数价格指数表二甲级写字楼主要市场指标,2014 年第四季度区域租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 天 ) 租金环比变幅空置率空置率环比变幅 ( 百分点 ) 黄浦 % 4.2% 2.7 静安 % 1.0 浦东 % 0.3% 0.8 徐汇 % 长宁 % 5.5% 1.5 表三甲级写字楼主要租赁成交,2014 年第四季度区域项目楼层面积 ( 平方米 ) 租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 天 ) 浦东上海环球金融中心中区 4, 浦东上海国际金融中心二期低区 1, 表四甲级写字楼主要散售成交,2014 年第四季度区域项目楼层面积 ( 平方米 ) 成交单价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 徐汇保利西岸中心层 12,490 55,479 虹口北外滩中心 21 层单元 ,168 6

7 上海写字楼市场报告 2014 第四季度研究报告供应量吸纳量及空置率位于临空商务区的凌空 SOHO 第四季度的竣工为市场带来了 128,130 平方米的新增供应 2015 年第一季度, 上海环贸广场二期预计将竣工交付, 将为市场新增 58,000 平方米甲级写字楼面积第四季度甲级写字楼总体空置率为 3.0% 环比下降 1.2 个百分点而在新兴商务区, 教育培训行业开始在租赁市场崭露头角图二甲级写字楼供应量吸纳量及空置率 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, 千平方米甲级写字楼供应量 ( 左轴 ) 甲级写字楼吸纳量 ( 左轴 ) 空置率 ( 右轴 ) 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 继三季度一外资教育机构在杨浦区的宝地广场租赁了 4,000 平方米写字楼面积之后, 第四季度又有一内资教育机构在位于虹桥商务区的虹桥万科中心租赁了 9,000 平方 % 0.0% 米的写字楼面积投资市场 2014 年上海房地产投资市场总成交金额为人民币 288 亿元, 同比下跌了 12.2%, 写字楼仍然是投资市场上最受欢迎的资产类别表五上海主要整栋成交,2014 年第四季度项目买家卖家成交总价第四季度, 上海房地产投资市场共录得三宗大宗写字楼交易, 总成交金额约为人民币 44.4 亿元保利西岸中心 (13 至 19 层 ) 新富港中心 ( 整栋 ) 台湾联发科技股份有限公司歌斐资产管理有限公司保利集团上海新富港房地产发展有限公司人民币 6.92 亿元人民币 31.3 亿元国浩长风城 6 号楼 ( 整栋 ) 新城控股上海新浩隆房地产开发有限公司人民币 6.23 亿元 7

GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.

com Regina Yang 杨悦晨 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai 董事及上海研究及咨询部主管 +86 21 6032 1728 regina.yang@cn.knightfrank.

com Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate

莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要 RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS 近期市场研究报告 Ocean Ruan 阮洋 Manager, Research & Valuation, Guangzhou

com Pamela Tsui 崔佩贤 Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, Greater China 大中华区研究及咨询部高级经理 +852 2846 4843 pamela.tsui@hk.knightfrank.

8 GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY 研究及咨询部 David Ji 纪言迅 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China 董事及大中华区研究及咨询部主管 Regina Yang 杨悦晨 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai 董事及上海研究及咨询部主管 Stephanie Sun 孙文静 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Beijing 董事及北京研究及咨询部主管 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs. 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要 RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS 近期市场研究报告 Ocean Ruan 阮洋 Manager, Research & Valuation, Guangzhou 广州研究及估价部经理 ocean.ruan@cn.knightfrank.com Pamela Tsui 崔佩贤 Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, Greater China 大中华区研究及咨询部高级经理 pamela.tsui@hk.knightfrank.com Cliff So 苏锐强 Executive Director, Agency & Professional Advisory Services, REPro Knight Frank, Taipei 台北瑞普莱坊物业代理及咨询部副总经理 cliff.so@repro.knightfrank.com Global Cities The 2015 Report Greater China Hotel Report 2014 Knight Frank Research Reports are available at 浏览莱坊的全球研究报告, 请登入 KnightFrank.com/Research China Retail Property Market Watch 1H 2014 Global Corporate Lettings Review 2014 Knight Frank 莱坊 2015 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. 本文件及其内容只提供一般资料, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知所有图片只供展示用途本文件并不表示意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保因使用此资料而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露 SHANGHAI OFFICE LEASING 上海写字楼租赁 Peter Zhang 张延军 Director, Head of Tenant Representation, Commercial Services 董事及商业物业代理部主管 peter.zhang@cn.knightfrank.com

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放研究报告 REITs 中国路 2014 年 2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放三十年, 对房托发展至今还未