SHANGHAI S RETAIL MARKET FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON RENTS The retail property market continued to see abundant supply with new malls launched in both

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1 RESEARCH 研究报告 SHANGHAI RETAIL MARKET REPORT Q 上海商铺市场报告 2015 第一季度

2 SHANGHAI S RETAIL MARKET FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON RENTS The retail property market continued to see abundant supply with new malls launched in both urban and suburban areas during the first quarter. The Shanghai retail market has been going through a period of slight correction. As some retailers slowed down their expansion plans, demand for retail property space continued to soften. In February, Uniqlo China closed its first drive-in store on Cao an Road in Shanghai due to its poor performance. In March, Marks and Spencer (M&S) Group PLC announced to close their Jiangqiao Wanda Store in Shanghai in August 2015, in addition to four other M&S stores to be closed in Changzhou, Wenzhou and Wuxi respectively. OPA Huaihai Store was also closed in March. In addition, some retail malls were forced to be closed as due to their outdated trade mix. For example, Pacific Digital Plaza Phase Two in Xujiahui will be demolished in 2015 after 14 years of operation. This may mark the closure of Shanghai s digital store era. In the coming year, Shanghai s retail market will face downward pressure on rents and continuous rises in vacancy rates as a result of abundant supply and weaker demand. However, some well-run shopping centres are not expected to be impacted by the overall downward trend with rents remaining firm. Starry Sky Mall on Shuicheng Road, Changning District has scheduled for its soft opening in the second quarter (Q2) of 2015, providing a gross retail area of 60,000 sqm. TABLE 1 Shanghai retail market indicators Indicator Q figure QoQ change Outlook (Q2 2015) New supply 186,000 sqm 73.4% Ground floor rental RMB 57.0 / sqm / day 2.1% Vacancy rate 7.4% 1 percentage point Capital value RMB 225,000 / sqm 0.2% Yield 6.5% Source: Knight Frank Research 2

3 SHANGHAI RETAIL MARKET REPORT Q RESEARCH RENTS AND PRICES In Q1 2015, the average retail rent in Shanghai s core commercial areas declined 2.1% quarter on quarter to RMB57.0 per sqm per day. Rents of ground-floor retail space in shopping malls in prime areas declined 3.0% quarter on quarter to settle at RMB60.1 per sqm per day in Q1. The average ground-floor rents of Xintiandi Style Shopping Mall in the Xintiandi area decreased from RMB35.0 per sqm per day in Q to RMB28.0 per sqm per day in Q The ground floor rent of Infiniti Plaza on Huaihai Middle Road decreased to RMB25.0 per sqm per day in Q1 from RMB28.0 per sqm per day in Q One of the main reasons for the decline in rents was that many shopping centres had adjusted their tenant mix in order to increase the proportion of food and beverage (F&B) and entertainment tenants. High streets in traditional commercial areas also faced downward pressure on retail rents. The average rent of street shops on Huaihai Middle Road decreased 5% quarter on quarter to RMB42.0 per sqm per day in Q1. The main reason for the decline was that Huaihai Middle Road introduced a number of traditional food stores including Laodachang, Harbin Food and Changchun in 2014 and the lower rent of these food stores dragged down the average street shop rent on the road. The capital value of high-quality retail space in core commercial areas decreased slightly by 0.2% quarter on quarter to reach RMB225,000 per sqm in Q FIGURE 1 Shanghai ground-floor retail rents in core areas RMB/sqm (net)/day Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q Source: Knight Frank Research TABLE 2 Selected retail property leasing transactions, Q District Building Floor / unit Trade Area (sqm) Rent (RMB / sqm / day) Huangpu Raffles City Level 1 unit Cosmetics Huangpu Hong Kong Plaza Level 3 unit F&B Jing an Crystal Galleria Level 1 unit Cosmetics Yangpu Bauhinia Square Level 1 unit Accessories Changning The Place Level 3 unit Kids Source: Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation TABLE 3 Selected strata-titled retail property sales transactions, Q District Building Floor / unit Area (sqm) Price (RMB million) Price (RMB / sqm) Zhabei Suhe Creek Level 1 unit ,990 Putuo Union Tower Basement 1 unit ,036 Minhang Hongqiao Paradise Walk Phase I Level 1 unit ,148 Jing an City Castle Level 1 unit ,395 Pudong Ocean Fortune Centre Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation. Level 1 unit ,000 3

4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND Retail malls opened during Q1 included Shanghai New World Daimaru Department Store in the Nanjing East Road commercial area and Florentia Village, Pudong s first outlet. In total, these projects added 186,000 sqm of new space to the market. Some retail malls came under pressure with high vacancy rates. The first to third floors as well as two underground floors in Leatop Plaza (formerly known as CITIC Plaza Shenhong) on Sichuan North Road recorded a vacancy rate of over 90%. The third to fifth floors of Mosaic Mall (formerly known as 353 Plaza) also had a high vacancy rate of approximately 60%. FIGURE 2 Shanghai core-area shopping mall annual supply and stock million sqm Aunnal supply (left) Stock (right) million sqm As such, the overall vacancy rate of prime shopping malls continued to rise in Q1, reaching 7.4%, a single percentage point increase quarter on quarter Q1 Source: Knight Frank Research MARKET ACTIVITIES An increasing number of major department stores were being converted into shopping centres due to their limited trade mix and increasing competition from e-commerce. A number of small and medium-sized department stores, with retail space of approximately 20,000 to 30,000 sqm, had been converted into shopping centres. Recently, China Xintiandi announced that they may take back the retail space occupied by Huaihai Pacific Department Store after its lease expires and convert it into a new shopping centre. Orient Huaihai Store in Huaihai Middle Road had also been adjusting its trade mix and looking for new tenants in line with the aforementioned trend. This March, Chanel cut prices by up to 20% on certain products in China and increased its prices in Europe by around 20%. After the adjustment, a Chanel handbag was just 5% more expensive in China than in France. This measure was intended to reduce price differences among countries, which were further widened considerably due to the recent depreciation of the Euro. The price cut immediately triggered a massive boost in sales in China. Some other luxury brands were considering cutting their prices in Asia. We believe that price cuts by luxury brands will become a norm in China as price globalization remains the long-term strategy for luxury brands. 4

5 上海商铺市场报告 2015 第一季度研究报告上海零售市场租金面临下行压力第一季度, 零售物业供应充足, 市中心和郊县地区都有新商场开业上海零售市场处于调整期, 零售商放缓开店计划, 对店铺的需求持续疲软 2 月份, 由于业绩不佳, 优衣库中国关闭了其位于上海曹安公路的首家自驾购店 3 月份, 英国马莎百货宣布在 2015 年 8 月前将关闭其在上海江桥万达广场的门店, 同时宣布关闭的还包括其分别位于常州温州无锡的四家店淮海路上的我丽王国百货也于 3 月停止营业此外, 一些商场因业态过时被迫关闭, 例如位于徐家汇的太平洋数码二期在营业 14 年以后宣布在年内将被拆除, 标志著上海的数码城时代或将一去不复返未来一年, 零售商铺市场供应巨大而需求相对疲软将导致上海的整体零售租金面临下行压力, 空置率继续上升但部分运营良好的购物中心将不会受到影响, 租金仍将保持坚挺 2015 年第二季度, 位于长宁区水城路的星空购物广场计划试营业, 总商业体量约为 6 万平方米表一上海商铺市场参考指标指标 2015 年第一季度数字按季变幅预测 (2015 年第二季度 ) 新增供应 186,000 平方米 73.4% 首层租金人民币 57.0 元 / 平方米 / 天 2.1% 空置率 7.4% 1 个百分点资本价值人民币 225,000 元 / 平方米 0.2% 回报率 6.5% 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 5

6 租金及价格 2015 年第一季度, 上海主要商圈平均租金环比下跌 2.1% 至每天每平方米人民币 57.0 元第一季度, 主要商圈购物中心的首层租金环比下降 3% 至每天每平方米人民币 60.1 元位于新天地区域的新天地时尚购物中心的首层租金从 2014 年第四季度的每天每平方米 35 元下降至 2015 年第一季度的每天每平方米 28 元淮海中路的无限度广场首层租金也从 2014 年第四季度每天每平方米 28 元下降至第一季度的每天每平方米 25 元导致租金下调的主要原因是不少购物中心进行了品牌调整, 提高了餐饮娱乐租户的比例位于传统商业区的沿街商铺也面临租金下降的压力第一季度, 淮海中路沿街商铺的租金环比下降 5% 至每天每平方米人民币 42 元租金下降的主要原因是由于淮海中路在 2014 年引进了一批老字号食品店如老大昌哈尔滨食品店和长春食品店这些承租能力较低的餐饮租户拉低了淮海中路街铺的平均租金水平 2015 年第一季度, 主要商圈高档零售店铺的资本价值环比微跌 0.2% 至每平方米人民币 225,000 元图一上海核心商圈首层商铺租金人民币 / 平方米 ( 净面积 )/ 天 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部表二上海商铺租赁成交范例,2015 年第一季度区域项目楼层 / 单元业态资料来源 : 莱坊研究部注 : 所有成交均有待落实面积 ( 平方米 ) 租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 天 ) 黄浦来福士广场一层单元化妆品黄浦香港广场三层单元餐饮静安富邦晶品购物中心一层单元化妆品杨浦紫荆广场一层单元饰品长宁南丰城三层单元儿童表三上海商铺买卖成交范例,2015 年第一季度区域项目楼层 / 单元面积 ( 平方米 ) 总价 ( 人民币百万元 ) 成交单价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 闸北苏河湾华侨城中心一层单元 ,990 普陀汇融大厦地下一层单元资料来源 : 上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部注 : 所有成交均有待落实 ,036 闵行虹桥龙湖天街一层单元 ,148 静安远中风华园一层单元 ,395 浦东远洋财富中心一层单元 ,000 6

7 上海商铺市场报告 2015 第一季度研究报告供应与需求新开业的商场包括位于南京东路商圈的新世界大丸百货和浦东首家奥特莱斯佛罗伦萨小镇, 共为市场带来图二上海核心商圈商场新供应量及存量 186,000 平方米的零售新面积一部分零售商场正承受着高空置率的压力位于四川北路的利通广场 ( 原中信泰百万平方米年新增供应 ( 左轴 ) 存量 ( 右轴 ) 百万平方米富申虹广场 ) 目前一至三层楼面及地下两层的平均空置率超过 90% 位于南京东路的悦荟广场 ( 原 353 广场 ) 目前三至五层的空置率约为 60% 第一季度, 整体购物中心的空置率继续上升, 环比上涨 1 个百分点至 7.4% Q1 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部市场动态由于业态单一, 并受到电商冲击, 大型百货商场转型购物中心已成为趋势目前市场上面积在两三万平方米左右的中小型百货都纷纷向购物中心转型近期, 新天地商业公司表示在太平洋百货淮海店租约到期后可能将其物业收回, 并开设自己的购物中心 ; 淮海中路上的东方商厦目前也正在进行新一轮的调整及招商, 可能会由百货业态转型为购物中心今年三月, 香奈儿对中国市场特定产品价格下调多达 20%, 并上调欧洲产品价格 20% 左右降价后, 同样一款香奈儿的手提包在中国的价格只比法国贵 5% 此举旨在降低由于欧元大幅贬值造成不同国家之间的价格差异香奈儿调价后立即大力促进了其在中国的零售额其他奢侈品牌也正在考虑降低价格由于全球统一价格是奢侈品品牌的长期努力方向, 我们相信奢侈品纷纷降价将会成为中国的新常态 7

GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.

com Regina Yang 杨悦晨 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai 董事及上海研究及咨询部主管 +86 21 6032 1728 regina.yang@cn.knightfrank.

institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs.

Consultancy, Beijing 董事及北京研究及咨询部主管 +86 10 6113 8022 stephanie.sun@cn.knightfrank.com Ocean Ruan 阮洋 Manager, Research & Valuation, Guangzhou 广州研究及估价部经理 +86 20 3839 6408 ocean.ruan@cn.knightfrank.com Pamela Tsui 崔佩贤 Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, Greater China 大中华区研究及咨询部高级经理 +852 2846 4843 pamela.

com Wealth Report 2015 Global Cities The 2015 Report Greater China Hotel Report 2014 China Retail Property Market Watch 2H 2014 Cliff So 苏锐强 Executive Director, Agency & Professional Advisory

8 GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY 研究及咨询部 David Ji 纪言迅 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China 董事及大中华区研究及咨询部主管 Regina Yang 杨悦晨 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai 董事及上海研究及咨询部主管 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs. 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要 RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS 近期市场研究报告 Stephanie Sun 孙文静 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Beijing 董事及北京研究及咨询部主管 stephanie.sun@cn.knightfrank.com Ocean Ruan 阮洋 Manager, Research & Valuation, Guangzhou 广州研究及估价部经理 ocean.ruan@cn.knightfrank.com Pamela Tsui 崔佩贤 Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, Greater China 大中华区研究及咨询部高级经理 pamela.tsui@hk.knightfrank.com Wealth Report 2015 Global Cities The 2015 Report Greater China Hotel Report 2014 China Retail Property Market Watch 2H 2014 Cliff So 苏锐强 Executive Director, Agency & Professional Advisory Services, REPro Knight Frank, Taipei 台北瑞普莱坊物业代理及咨询部副总经理 cliff.so@repro.knightfrank.com Knight Frank Research Reports are available at 浏览莱坊的全球研究报告, 请登入 KnightFrank.com/Research Follow us on Wechat 关注莱坊微信帐号 Scan the QR code and tune in to the latest property insights and research from Knight Frank. 扫描二维码, 即时了解更多房产资讯及莱坊研究报告 SHANGHAI RETAIL 上海商铺 Alan Sun 孙俊安 National Director, Head of Landlord Project Services 中国区董事, 综合项目顾问及代理服务部主管 alan.sun@cn.knightfrank.com Knight Frank 莱坊 2015 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. 本文件及其内容只提供一般资料, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知所有图片只供展示用途本文件并不表示意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保因使用此资料而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放研究报告 REITs 中国路 2014 年 2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放三十年, 对房托发展至今还未