Research

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Research"

羊彰阙
6 years ago
Views:

1 Research 研究报告 Knight Frank 萊坊 Beijing Prime Office Market Report 北京甲级写字楼市场报告 Q 年第三季 PRIME OFFICE 甲级写字楼

2 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly HIGHLIGHTS Beijing s economy remained steady in the third quarter of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Beijing stood at 7.7% year on year, which was 0.2 percentage point faster compared to the same period of last year. Investment in real estate rose by 9.5% year on year. In particular, investment in offices increased by 32.7%. The total area of new properties sold went up 15.9% year on year. Sales of offices, in particular, increased 54.6%, showing a stronger growth compared to other property types. There was no new Grade-A office supply in the third quarter of The market vacancy rate dipped 0.2 percentage point to 3.9% with zero new supply for two consecutive quarters. The vacancy rate remained at a low level. The average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 0.9% to RMB384 per sqm per month in the third quarter due to economic slowdown. Rents in the CBD and Lufthansa area dropped 0.6% and 1.5% to RMB426 and RMB321 per sqm per month respectively. Rents in other areas remained stable. The Beijing Grade-A office price index rose 5.5% in the third quarter of 2013, with is the 17th straight quarterly growth since the third quarter of Office rents doubled in the recent three years. During the same period, the Beijing Grade-A office price index surged 85%. With price continuing rising while rents declining, capital yields dropped 0.2 percentage point to 6.2% in the third quarter. Outlook Uncertainties in the global economy are set to sustain. China is facing tough challenges during the economic structure adjustment process. Beijing s economy is expected to maintain the current growth pace for the rest of the year. Due to economic slowdown and a lack of confidence, firms remained cautious in leasing cost control. Landlords in core office areas started to loosen negotiation conditions in order to retain branded firms. However, rents remained at relatively high levels due to the tight availability of leasable office space. In the fourth quarter of 2013, Fortune Financial Center in the CBD area and World Profit Centre in the Lufthansa area will be launched in October, adding 215,000 sqm of space to the market. Ocean International Center II located outside East Fourth Ring Road will enter the market at the end of the year, providing 50,000 sqm of office space. New office supply in the fourth quarter, totaling around 265,000 sqm, may push up market vacancy rate and suppress rental growth. Beijing s economy remained steady in the third quarter of Beijing s Grade-A office rents fell another 0.9% quarter on quarter, while the vacancy rate dipped to 3.9%. The average rent is expected to face downward pressure in the fourth quarter due to around 265,000 sqm of new office supply. 2

3 KnightFrank.com.cn MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS The economy in Beijing showed steady growth in the third quarter of Online shopping continued fast growth trend. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Beijing reached RMB1,376.6 billion for the first three quarters of 2013, an increase of 7.7% year on year. The GDP growth rate in Beijing was 0.2 percentage point faster compared to the same period of last year. Fixed asset investment reached RMB488.1 billion for the first three quarters of 2013, up 8.2% year on year. The growth rate increased 0.8 percentage point compared to the first half year. Investment in real estate reached RMB241.4 billion, up 9.5% year on year. In particular, investment in offices rose 32.7% to RMB39.8 billion. The total area of new properties sold reached 13.3 million sqm, up 15.9% year on year. Sales of offices, in particular, reached 2.2 million sqm, an increase of 54.6%. Retail sales went up 8.6% year on year to RMB607.3 billion during the first three quarters of The growth rate remained stable. Online shopping continued with a fast growth pace. E-commerce sales of middle to large retail firms reached RMB63.7 billion, an increase of 43.5% year on year, accounting for 10.5% of the total retail sales in Beijing for the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, uncertainties in the global economy are set to sustain. China is facing tough challenges during the economic structure adjustment process. The economy in Beijing is expected to maintain with the current growth pace for the rest of the year. Economic indicators in Beijing, Q1-Q Economic indicator Figure YoY change (%) GDP RMB1,376.6 billion 7.7% Fixed asset investment RMB488.1billion 8.2% Real estate investment RMB241.4 billion 9.5% Import and export value US$323.2 billion 6.8% Utilised FDI US$7.6 billion 11.3% Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2012=100) Source: Beijing Statistics Bureau / Knight Frank 3

4 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SUPPLY AND DEMAND There was no new supply of Grade-A offices in the third quarter. The vacancy rate dropped 0.2 percentage point to 3.9%. Beijing Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy Source: Knight Frank There was no new supply of Grade-A offices in Beijing in the third quarter of The vacancy rate dropped 0.2 percentage point to 3.9% and the net absorption was 19,630 sqm in the quarter. In the Financial Street area, the occupancy rate remained at nearly 100% in the third quarter. In the CBD area, the vacancy rate declined 0.4 percentage point to 3.8%. While in the East Second Ring Road area, the vacancy rate rose by 1.2 percentage points to 5.2%. In the Lufthansa and Zhongguancun areas, vacancy rates dipped 1.1 and 2.0 percentage points to 3.0% and 2.0% respectively. With office rents high rising and the tight availability of leasable space in core office areas in Beijing, the office market has started to expand actively to the surrounding area. Major emerging office areas include Tongzhou Office Park, Yizhuang BDA, Fengtai Science Park and Lize Financial Business District. In addition, the second international airport will be completed in 2018 in Daxing. It is expected that a new office area will be formed around the new airport area with aviation convenience. In the fourth quarter of 2013, Fortune Financial Center in the CBD area and World Profit Centre in the Lufthansa area will be launched in October, adding 215,000 sqm of space to the market. Ocean International Center located outside East Fourth Ring Road will enter the market at the end of year, providing 50,000 sqm of office space. New supply in the fourth quarter, totaling around 265,000 sqm, may push up market vacancy rate. 4

5 KnightFrank.com.cn RENT Due to China s slowing economic growth, Beijing s Grade-A office rents fell another 0.9% in the third quarter. Beijing Grade-A office rental index 2003 Q1 = 100 Source: Knight Frank The average rent of Beijing s Grade-A offices fell another 0.9% to RMB384 per sqm per month in the third quarter. The average rent in the CBD and Lufthansa areas dropped 0.6% and 1.5% to RMB426 and RMB321 per sqm per month respectively. Rents in other areas did not see significant changes. Due to economic slowdown and a lack of confidence, firms remained cautious in controlling leasing budget. Landlords in core office areas started to loosen negotiation conditions in order to retain branded firms, leading to decreased rents. In the fourth quarter, rents are set to face continual downward pressure with 265,000 sqm of new supply entering the market. Grade-A office market indicators, Q Submarket Rent (RMB/ sqm/ month) % change (QoQ) Vacancy Rate Vacancy rate percentage points change (QoQ) CBD % 3.8% 0.4 Lufthansa % 3.0% 1.1 Beijing Financial Street % 0.0% 1.6 East Second Ring Road % 5.2% 1.2 Zhongguancun % 2.0% 2.0 Source: Knight Frank 5

6 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SALES AND INVESTMENT Beijing s Grade-A office price index rose 5.5% in the third quarter. Capital yields declined to 6.2%. Beijing Grade-A office price index 2003 Q1 = 100 Source: Knight Frank The Beijing Grade-A office price index rose 5.5% in the third quarter of 2013, which is the 17th straight quarterly growth since the third quarter of Office rents doubled in the recent three years, while the Beijing Grade-A office price index also surged 85% during the same period. Capital yields in the Grade-A office market showed a downward trend with rents decline and price growth. In the third quarter, capital yields dropped another 0.2 percentage point to 6.2%. Multiple en-bloc sale transactions were recorded in the third quarter. Taiping Insurance bought The Exchange, located in the CBD with a gross floor area (GFA) of 40,988 sqm, for a price of RMB1.598 billion. Taiping Insurance also bought Guangan Center Lot B Office 4 West for RMB3.585 billion. The project was located in Financial Street with a GFA of 75,000 sqm. GuangAn Center Lot B Office 4 East, with a GFA of 10,000 sqm, was bought by Hengtai Securities for RMB508.5 million. Two office buildings in Zhongguanchun, namely IBM Tower and Sillion Valley Building, were both sold at around RMB27,000 per sqm in the third quarter. 6

7 KnightFrank.com.cn Selected office leasing transactions, Q Submarket Building Area (sqm) Tenant CBD Yuanyang Office Park 2,500 Minsheng Financial Leasing CBD Parkview Green 400 AVIC International Investment East Second Ring Road Full Link Plaza 600 The Jiuzhou Wealth Center Zhongguancun Source: Knight Frank Raycom Infotech Park 510 Nomura Holdings Selected office sales transactions, Q District Building Area (sqm) Price (RMB million) Price (RMB/sqm) Dongcheng Oriental Ginza ,621 Chaoyang Poly International Plaza ,355 Chaoyang Wangjing SOHO ,866 Haidian Source: Knight Frank Zhongkun International Plaza 2, ,601 7

8 Q 年第三季度 Beijing 北京甲级写字楼 PRIME OFFICES Quarterly 季刊焦点 2013 年三季度, 北京市经济运行保持平稳, 地区生产总值同比增长 7.7%, 与上年同期相比提高 0.2 个百分点房地产开发投资同比增长 9.5%, 其中, 写字楼投资同比增长 32.7% 全市新建商品房销售面积同比增长 15.9%, 其中, 写字楼销售面积同比增长 54.6% 写字楼市场与其他物业类型相比表现较为抢眼 2013 年第三季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场没有新增供应, 连续两个季度的零供应促使市场总体空置率小幅下降 0.2 个百分点至 3.9% 市场空置率继续保持低位受宏观经济放缓影响, 第三季度北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金继续下降 0.9 个百分点至每月每平方米人民币 384 元中央商务区和燕莎区域的租金水平分别下降了 0.6% 和 1.5% 至每月每平方米人民币 426 元和 321 元其他区域租金水平变化不大第三季度, 北京甲级写字楼价格指数环比上涨 5.5%, 这是继 2009 年三季度以来连续第 17 个季度的增长近三年来, 甲级写字楼租金水平实现了翻番增长, 与此同时, 成交价格指数也有 85% 的增幅第三季度, 由于租金水平下调及价格持续增长, 甲级写字楼资本收益率继续下滑趋势, 三季度资本收益率环比下降 0.2 个百分点到 6.2% 未来展望基于国内外形势仍然复杂, 经济发展中的不确定性因素较多, 中国经济进行调结构转方式的任务还很艰巨, 预计第四季度北京市经济增速将继续保持当前水平受宏观经济增速放缓及对经济发展信心不足影响, 企业对租赁成本持谨慎态度, 部分企业选择搬到租金较为便宜的非核心商圈业主方为追求较高的出租率则多采用灵活的租金政策来挽留或吸引租户, 但由于可租赁空间紧张, 租金报价仍保持平稳中央商务区的财富金融中心 ( 即财富中心三期 ) 和燕莎区域的润世中心相继在 10 月份交付使用, 为市场带来 215,000 平方米的新增甲级写字楼面积另外, 位于东四环的远洋国际中心二期将于年底入市, 提供约 5 万平米的写字楼面积四季度市场约 26.5 万平方米的新增供应预计将在短期内促使空置率小幅上升, 同时使得租金面临一定下行压力第三季度北京市经济继续保持平稳运行, 北京市甲级写字楼市场租金再次小幅下调 0.9%, 市场空置率变化不大四季度预计将有约 26.5 万平方米的新增供应, 租金水平面临一定的下行压力 8

9 KnightFrank.com.cn 三季度北京经济运行总体平稳, 网络消费表现活跃宏观经济 2013 年三季度, 北京市实现地区生产总值人民币 13,766.2 亿元, 同比增长 7.7%, 与上年同期相比提高 0.2 个百分点前三季度, 全市完成社会固定资产投资 4,881.3 亿元, 同比增长 8.2%, 较上半年提高 0.8 个百分点全市完成房地产开发投资 2,413.9 亿元, 同比增长 9.5%, 其中, 写字楼投资亿元, 同比增长 32.7%, 增长较快新建商品房销售面积 1,329.7 万平方米, 同比增长 15.9%, 其中, 写字楼销售面积万平方米, 同比增长 54.6% 前三季度实现社会消费品零售额人民币 6,073.3 亿元, 同比增长 8.6%, 增速保持稳定网络消费表现依旧活跃, 北京限额以上批发零售企业实现网上零售额人民币亿元, 同比增长 43.5%, 占社会消费品零售额的 10.5% 第四季度, 国内外形势仍然复杂, 中国经济进行调结构转方式的任务还很艰巨, 预计北京市经济增速将继续保持当前水平北京主要经济指标,2013 年前三季度经济指标数值同比增长 (%) 地区生产总值人民币 13,766.2 亿元 7.7% 固定资产投资人民币 4,881.3 亿元 8.2% 房地产开发投资人民币 2,413.9 亿元 9.5% 进出口总额 3,232 亿美元 6.8% 实际利用外资 (1-7 月 ) 58.0 亿美元 10.6% 居民消费价格指数 (2012 年 =100) 数据来源 : 北京市统计局 / 莱坊 9

10 2013 年第三季度北京甲级写字楼季刊供应与需求三季度市场仍然没有新增供北京甲级写字楼供应吸纳和空置率给, 甲级写字楼空置率在三季度再下调 0.2 个百分点至 3.9% 数据来源 : 莱坊 2013 年第三季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场没有新增供应, 市场净吸纳 19,630 平方米连续两个季度的零供应致使市场总体空置率再下调 0.2 个百分点至 3.9% 分区域来看, 三季度金融街区域的写字楼基本满租中央商务区写字楼空置率下降 0.4 个百分点至 3.8%, 东二环区域中央商务区的财富金融中心 ( 即财富中心三期 ) 和燕莎区域的润世中心相继在 10 月份交付使用, 为市场带来 215,000 平方米的新增甲级写字楼面积另外, 位于东四环外的远洋国际中心二期将于年底入市, 提供约 5 万平米的写字楼面积四季度共约 26.5 万平方米的新项目入市预计将使得空置率小幅上调上调 1.2 个百分点至 5.2% 燕莎和中关村区域的写字楼空置率分别下降 1.1 和 2.0 个百分点至 3.0% 和 2.0% 随着北京核心区域写字楼租金的高涨和租赁面积的短缺, 写字楼商圈开始向城市周边扩展新兴的写字楼商圈主要包括通州商务园区亦庄北京开发区丰台科技园和丽泽商务区, 另外, 大兴将在 2018 年建成北京第二国际机场, 借助机场航空的便利, 有望将在机场周边形成新的办公商圈 10

11 KnightFrank.com.cn 租金受宏观经济放缓影响, 第三季度北京甲级写字楼市场平均租北京甲级写字楼租金指数 2003 年第一季度 = 100 金小幅下跌 0.9% 数据来源 : 莱坊第三季度北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金再下跌 0.9% 至每月每平方米人民币 384 元中央商务区和燕莎的租金水平分别下降了 0.6% 和 1.5% 至每月每平方米人民币 426 元和 321 元其他区域租金水平变化不大受宏观经济增速放缓及对经济发展信心不足影响, 企业对租赁成本持谨慎态度, 业主方则多采用灵活的租金政策来挽留或吸引租户, 致使核心商圈的平均租金小幅下调第四季度, 随着约 26.5 万平方米的新增供应入市, 租金走势仍然面临下行压力甲级写字楼主要市场指标, 2013 年第三季度商圈租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 月 ) 环比变幅空置率环比变幅中央商务区 % 3.8% 0.4 燕莎 % 3.0% 1.1 金融街 % 0.0% 1.6 东二环 % 5.2% 1.2 中关村 % 2.0% 2.0 数据来源 : 莱坊 11

12 2013 年第三季度北京甲级写字楼季刊销售与投资 2013 年三季度, 北京甲级写字楼价格环比上涨 5.5%, 资本收北京甲级写字楼价格指数 2003 年第一季度 = 100 益率下滑至 6.2% 数据来源 : 莱坊第三季度, 北京甲级写字楼价格指数环比上涨 5.5%, 这是继 2009 年第三季度以来连续第 17 个季度的增长近三年来, 甲级写字楼租金水平实现了翻番增长, 与此同时, 成交价格也由于租金水平下调, 甲级写字楼资本收益率继续下滑趋势, 三季度资本收益率环比下降 0.2 个百分点至 6.2% 有 85% 的增幅第三季度有多起大宗写字楼交易成交太平人寿以人民币亿元整购位于 CBD 的京汇大厦, 该项目写字楼建筑面积 40,988 平方米另外, 太平人寿还购买了金融街广安中心 B 地块 4 号楼西侧部分写字楼, 项目总建筑面积 7.5 万平方米, 成交总价为人民币亿元同一个项目的东侧部分写字楼则由恒泰证券以人民币亿元获得, 项目建筑面积约 10,000 平方米位于中关村的 IBM 大厦和硅谷大厦分别以每平方米人民币 2.7 万元左右的价格易手 12

13 KnightFrank.com.cn 写字楼主要租赁成交, 2013 年第三季度区域项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 租户中央商务区远洋光华国际 2,500 民生金融租赁中央商务区侨福芳草地 400 中航国际投资东二环丰联广场 600 九洲财富中心中关村融科资讯中心 510 日本野村控股数据来源 : 莱坊写字楼主要买卖成交,2013 年第三季度区域项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 售价 ( 百万元人民币 ) 售价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 东城东方银座 ,621 朝阳保利国际广场 ,355 朝阳望京 SOHO ,866 海淀中坤国际广场 2, ,601 数据来源 : 中房驰昊 / 莱坊 13

14 2013 年第三季度北京甲级写字楼季刊 Research 研究报告 Research & Consultancy Thomas Lam Director, Head of Research & Consultancy Greater China Jingjing Zhang Associate Director Research & Consultancy, Beijing Regina Yang Director, Head of Research & Consultancy Shanghai Beijing Hengky Nayoan Managing Director Shanghai Graham Zink Managing Director Guangzhou Clement Leung Executive Director 研究及咨询部林浩文董事及研究及咨询部主管, 大中华区张婧婧副董事北京研究及咨询部杨悦晨董事及研究及咨询部主管, 上海北京何金亮董事总经理上海葛汉文董事总经理广州梁伟明执行董事 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs. Our worldwide research reports are also available at KnightFrank.com. Knight Frank 2013 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要浏览莱坊的全球研究报告, 请登入 KnightFrank.com 莱坊 2013 本文件及其内容只提供一般数据, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知所有图片只供展示用途本文件并不表示意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保因使用此数据而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露 14

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放研究报告 REITs 中国路 2014 年 2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放三十年, 对房托发展至今还未