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1 Research 研究报告 Knight Frank 萊坊 Beijing Prime Office Market Report 北京甲级写字楼市场报告 Q 年第二季 PRIME OFFICE 甲级写字楼

2 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly HIGHLIGHTS Beijing s economy remained stable in the first half of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Beijing stood at 7.7% year on year, which was 0.2 percentage point slower compared to the first quarter, but 0.5 percentage point faster compared to the same period of last year. Growth of retail sales in the first half slowed to 8.8%, falling 4.2 percentage points year on year. However, online shopping remained active, with sales up 50.9% year on year, accounting for 10.8% of the total retail sales. There was no new Grade-A office supply in the second quarter of The market vacancy rate dropped 0.7 percentage point to 4.2%. The vacancy rate increased in the previous two quarters. Some landlords started to loosen up negotiation conditions in the second quarter in order to retain branded firms, which led to decreased vacancy rates as well as decreased average rents. The average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell 2.2 % to RMB387 per sq m per month in the second quarter due to a slower macro-economy. This was the first fall in the average rent since the third quarter of Rents in the CBD and Zhongguancun areas dropped 2.3% and 3.2% to RMB429 and RMB311 per sq m per month respectively. Rents in other areas remained unchanged. The supply and sales of strata-title Grade-A and B offices jumped sharply in the second quarter of 2013, with sales up 121% to 234,870 sq m and supply up 169% to 491,680 sq m. The average selling price edged down 3.3% to RMB29,981 per sq m, due to higher proportions of transactions in Fengtai, Yizhuang and other non-core office areas. Outlook Uncertainties in the global economy are set to continue. China is facing tough challenges during the economic structure adjustment process. The economy in Beijing is expected to maintain with the current growth pace for the second half of the year. Due to limit supply, the vacancy rate of Beijing s Grade-A offices is set to remain at below 5%. The average rent is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future. Beijing rolled out new cooling measures at the end of March to further tighten control on the residential market. Part of the purchasing power is shifting to the commercial market, which was evidenced by the growth of both supply and sales of strata-title Grade-A and B offices. Because rents stopped increasing and transaction prices of Grade-A offices continued growing, capital yields in the office market are seeing a downward trend. In the second half of 2013, Fortune Financial Center in the CBD area and Runshi Centre in the Lufthansa area are expected to be launched, adding 215,000 sq m of space to the market. Due to China s slowing economic growth, Beijing s Grade-A office rents fell for the first time in the second quarter of 2013 since the third quarter of The vacancy rate went down slightly. The average rent is expected to hover at relatively high levels in the future due to supply shortage. 2

3 KnightFrank.com.cn MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS The economy in Beijing showed steady growth in the first half of However, growth of retail sales slowed down. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Beijing reached RMB911.3 billion in the first half of 2013, an increase of 7.7% year on year. The GDP growth rate in Beijing was 0.2 percentage point slower compared to the first quarter, but 0.5 percentage point faster compared to the same period of last year. Fixed asset investment recorded RMB282.0 billion in the first half of 2013, up 7.4% year on year. But the growth rate dropped 4.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Investment in real estate reached RMB139.2 billion, up 7.2% year on year. The total properties sold reached 8.2 million sq m, up 32.4% year on year. Retail sales went up 8.8% year on year to RMB397.3 billion. The growth rate fell 4.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter. However, online shopping remained active, with a year-on-year growth rate of 50.9%, accounting for 10.8% of the total retail sales. In the second half of the year, uncertainties in the global economy are set to continue. China is facing tough challenges during the economic structure adjustment process. The economy in Beijing is expected to maintain with the current growth pace in the second half of the year. Economic indicators, Q Economic indicator Figure YoY change (%) GDP RMB911.3 billion 7.7% Fixed asset investment RMB282.0billion 7.4% Real estate investment RMB139.2 billion 7.2% Import and export value US$210.8 billion 1.7% Utilised FDI (Jan to May) US$4.1 billion 12.9% Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2012=100) Source: Beijing Statistics Bureau / Knight Frank 3

4 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SUPPLY AND DEMAND The vacancy rate dropped Beijing Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy 0.7 percentage point to 4.2% in the second quarter. '000 sq m 1,500 Supply(LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy Rate(RHS) 25% 1,200 20% % % 300 5% F 0% Source: Knight Frank There was no new supply of Grade-A offices in Beijing in the second quarter of The vacancy rate dropped 0.7 percentage point to 4.2% and the net absorption reached 54,015 sq m in the quarter. In the Financial Street area, the occupancy rate remained at near 100% in the second quarter. In the CBD area, the vacancy rate declined 1.4 percentage points to 4.3%, while in the East Second Ring Road area, it rose to 4.0%, up 1.9 percentage points quarter on quarter. In the Lufthansa and Zhongguancun areas, vacancy rates remained at around 4.0%. The high-rise rental costs and the supply shortage of Grade-A offices in core areas are stimulating the expansion of office market in suburban area, such as Wangjing, Fengtai and Yizhuang, which leads to the development of Office Parks in suburban areas. In the second half of 2013, Fortune Financial Center in the CBD area and Runshi Centre in the Lufthansa area are expected to be launched, adding 215,000 sq m of space to the market, which will help ease the tight supply situation in core office areas to some extent. 4 While some firms insensitive to location were moving out of core office areas to emerging areas where fundamental facilities were improving, landlords in core office areas started to loosen up negotiation conditions in order to retain branded firms, which led to decreased vacancy rates as well as decreased average rents.

5 KnightFrank.com.cn RENT Due to China s slowing economic growth, Beijing s Grade-A office rents fell for the first time since the third quarter of Beijing Grade-A office rent index (2003 Q1 = 100) Source: Knight Frank Due to China s slowing economic growth, the average rent of Beijing s Grade-A offices fell 2.2% to RMB387 per sq m per month in the second quarter, the first fall since the third quarter of Due to limit supply, the vacancy rate of Beijing s Grade-A offices will remain at below 5%. The average rent is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future. The average rent in the CBD and Zhongguancun areas dropped 2.3% and 3.2% to RMB429 and RMB311 per sq m per month respectively. Rents in other areas did not see significant changes. Prime office market indicators, Q Submarket Rent (RMB/ sq m/ month) % change (QoQ) Vacancy Rate Vacancy rate percentage points change (QoQ) CBD % 4.3% 1.4 Lufthansa % 4.0% 0.7 Beijing Financial Street % 1.6% 0.0 East Second Ring Road % 4.0% 1.9 Zhongguancun % 4.0% 0.1 Source: Knight Frank 5

6 2008 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SALES AND INVESTMENT Office supply and sales jumped sharply in the second quarter of The average selling price edged down 3.3%. Beijing primary Grade-A and Grade-B office sales and prices Supply Area(LHS) Sales Area(LHS) Average selling price(rhs) 000 sq m RMB/sqm , , , , , ,000-15,000 Source: Holdways / Knight Frank Thanks to tightening control in the residential sector, the supply and sales of strata-title Grade-A and B offices jumped sharply in the second quarter of 2013, with sales up 121% to 234,870 sq m, and supply up 169% to 491,680 sq m. The average selling price edged down 3.3% to RMB29,981 per sq m. The drop in the average price was due to higher proportions of transactions in Fengtai, Yizhuang and other non-core office areas. In the second quarter, Greenland Center, Poly International Plaza and Damei Central Plaza were all launched. Greenland Center in the Wangjing area achieved a sales volume of 69,422 sq m, accounting for 29.6% of the total quarterly sales volume. The average selling price of Greenland Center reached RMB32,000 per sq m. King Mansion in Yizhuang sold 12,217 sq m of space and the average selling price went up 9.4% quarter on quarter to RMB25,000 per sq m. China Merchants Bank bought Yuetan South Street project No.4 building in the Financial Street of Beijing for RMB3.902 billion in the quarter. Beijing Huarong Investment Company reserved the No. 1 office building and associated facilities of the Guang'an center on plot B of Financial Street for RMB2.753 billion. Capital yields in the office market showed a downward trend with rental growth remaining stagnant and price growing continuously. In the second quarter, capital yields dropped 0.2 percentage point to 6.4%. 6

7 KnightFrank.com.cn Selected office leasing transactions, Q Submarket Building Area (sq m) Tenant CBD LG Twins 630 Norstar Media East Second Ring Road Raffles 1,200 Cinda Asset Management East Second Ring Road Oriental Plaza 799 Equant Telecom Tech. CBD Zhonghai Plaza 900 British American Tobacco Source: Knight Frank Selected office sales transactions, Q District Building Area (sq m) Price (RMB million) Price (RMB/sq m) Dongcheng Henderson Center ,601 Chaoyang Full Link Plaza ,978 Chaoyang Wangjing SOHO ,227 Haidian Source: Knight Frank Zhongkun International Plaza ,030 7

8 Q 年第二季度 Beijing 北京甲级写字楼 PRIME OFFICES Quarterly 季刊焦点 2013 年上半年, 北京市经济总体运行平稳地区生产总值同比增长 7.7%, 增速较一季度回落 0.2 个百分点, 较去年同期增长 0.5 个百分点全市消费增速稳中趋缓, 同比增长 8.8%, 增速比上年同期回落 4.2 个百分点然而网络消费表现活跃, 同比增长 50.9%, 占全部零售额的 10.8% 2013 年第二季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场没有新增供应, 市场总体空置率下降 0.7 个百分点至 4.2% 前两个季度空置率持续提升, 部分写字楼业主开始给予租户一定的谈判空间来留住品牌企业, 使得核心商圈的平均租金小幅下降的同时空置率也略有下降受宏观经济放缓影响, 第二季度北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金在二季度下降 2.2 个百分点至每月每平方米人民币 387 元, 这是自 2009 年第三季度以来的首次下调中央商务区和中关村的租金水平分别下降了 2.3% 和 3.2% 至每月每平方米人民币 429 元和 311 元其他区域租金水平变化不大未来展望基于国内外形势仍然复杂, 经济发展中的不确定性因素较多, 中国经济进行调结构转方式的任务还很艰巨, 预计下半年北京市经济增速将继续保持当前水平由于供应有限, 甲级写字楼市场空置率将会保持在 5% 以下的低位, 预计未来租金水平将继续在高位小幅波动北京市三月底出台了新国五条细则, 进一步加紧了对住宅市场的调控措施, 部分购买力正在转入不受限购政策控制的商业地产, 这一点可以从二季度甲级及乙级写字楼的供求两旺来体现由于租金停止上涨, 而甲级写字楼成交价持续上涨, 资本收益率呈现下滑趋势中央商务区的财富金融中心 ( 即财富中心三期 ) 和燕莎区域的润世中心有望在下半年交付使用, 届时将会为市场带来 215,000 平方米的新增甲级写字楼面积受宏观经济放缓影响, 第二季度北京市甲级写字楼市场租金出现了自 2009 年第三季度以来的首次小幅下调市场空置率下降由于供应有限, 预计未来租金水平将在高位波动 2013 年二季度, 北京甲级及乙级写字楼供求两旺二季度, 一手销售面积合计 234,870 平方米, 环比上涨 121%, 同时供应量亦环比大涨 169% 至 491,680 平方米由于主要成交项目位于丰台亦庄等非核心区域, 甲级及乙级一手写字楼平均销售均价每平方米人民币 29,981 元, 较上季度小幅下降 3.3% 8

9 KnightFrank.com.cn 上半年北京经济运行总体平稳, 消费增速趋缓宏观经济 2013 年上半年, 北京市实现地区生产总值人民币 9,112.8 亿元, 同比增长 7.7%, 较一季度回落 0.2 个百分点, 与上年同期相比提高 0.5 个百分点社会固定资产投资增速放缓, 上半年全市完成社会固定资产投资亿元, 同比增长 7.4%, 较一季度回落 4.7 个百分点上半年, 全市完成房地产开发投资亿元, 同比增长 7.2% 商品房销售面积万平方米, 同比增长 32.4% 全市消费增速稳中趋缓, 网络消费表现活跃上半年实现社会消费品零售额人民币 3,973.3 亿元, 同比增长 8.8%, 增速比上年同期回落 4.2 个百分点然而网络消费表现活跃, 上半年网上零售额达到人民币亿元, 同比增长 50.9%, 占全部零售额的 10.8% 总体来看, 上半年全市经济运行平稳下半年, 国内外形势仍然复杂, 经济发展中的不确定性因素较多, 中国经济进行调结构转方式的任务还很艰巨, 预计北京市经济增速将继续保持当前水平主要经济指标,2013 年第二季度经济指标数值同比增长 (%) 地区生产总值人民币 9,112.8 亿元 7.7% 固定资产投资人民币 2,820.2 亿元 7.4% 房地产开发投资人民币 1,391.5 亿元 7.2% 进出口总额 2,108.3 亿美元 1.7% 实际利用外资 (1-5 月 ) 41.4 亿美元 12.9% 居民消费价格指数 (2012 年 =100) 数据来源 : 北京市统计局 / 莱坊 9

10 2013 年第二季度北京甲级写字楼季刊供应与需求甲级写字楼空置率在二季度下北京甲级写字楼供应吸纳和空置率降 0.7 个百分点至 4.2% 1,500 '000 平方米供应 ( 左轴 ) 净吸纳 ( 左轴 ) 空置率 ( 右轴 ) 25% 1,200 20% % % 300 5% F 0% 数据来源 : 莱坊 2013 年第二季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场没有新增供应, 市场净吸纳 54,015 平方米, 市场总体空置率下降 0.7 个百分点至 4.2% 北京市核心区办公面积的紧张局面和高企的租金促使写字楼市场不断向望京丰台亦庄等新兴区域拓展, 从而带动了办公郊区化的发展分区域来看, 二季度金融街区域的写字楼继续接近满租状态中央商务区写字楼空置率下降 1.4 个百分点至 4.3%, 东二环区域上调 1.9 个百分点至 4.0% 燕莎中关村区域的写字楼空置率变化不大, 仍保持在 4.0% 左右中央商务区的财富金融中心 ( 即财富中心三期 ) 和燕莎区域的润世中心有望在下半年交付使用, 届时将会为市场带来 215,000 平方米的新增甲级写字楼面积, 在一定程度上会缓解核心区写字楼供应紧张的局面鉴于一些对地理位置不敏感的公司纷纷搬离核心办公区, 而望京等新兴办公区域的基础设施不断完善, 部分核心商业区业主开始给予租户一定的谈判空间来留住品牌企业, 致使核心商圈的平均租金小幅下降的同时空置率也略有下降 10

11 KnightFrank.com.cn 租金受宏观经济放缓影响, 北京甲北京甲级写字楼租金指数 (2003 Q1 = 100) 级写字楼市场租金在二季度录得自 2009 年第三季度以来的首次小幅下跌数据来源 : 莱坊受宏观经济放缓影响, 北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金在二季度下降 2.2% 至每月每平方米人民币 387 元, 这是自 2009 年由于供应有限, 甲级写字楼市场空置率将会保持在 5% 以下的低位, 预计未来租金水平将继续在高位小幅波动第三季度以来的首次下调二季度中央商务区和中关村的租金水平分别下降了 2.3% 和 3.2% 至每月每平方米人民币 429 元和 311 元其他区域租金水平小幅调整甲级写字楼主要市场指标, 2013 年第二季度商圈租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 月 ) 环比变幅空置率环比变幅中央商务区 % 4.3% 1.4 燕莎 % 4.0% 0.7 金融街 % 1.6% 0.0 东二环 % 4.0% 1.9 中关村 % 4.0% 0.1 数据来源 : 莱坊 11

12 2008 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 年第二季度北京甲级写字楼季刊销售与投资 2013 年二季度, 北京写字楼供需两旺销售价格出现 3.3% 的北京甲级及乙级写字楼一手销售额与售价供应面积 ( 左轴 ) 销售面积 ( 左轴 ) 平均售价 ( 右轴 ) 下调 000 平方米 600 元 / 平方米 45, , , , , ,000-15,000 数据来源 : 中房驰昊 / 莱坊由于住宅市场的严格调控措施,2013 年二季度, 北京甲级及乙级写字楼供求两旺, 一手销售面积合计 234,870 平方米, 环比上涨 121%, 同时供应量亦环比大涨 169% 至 491,680 平方米由于主要成交项目位于丰台亦庄等非核心区域, 甲级及乙级一手写字楼平均销售均价每平方米人民币 29,981 元, 较上季度小幅下降 3.3% 二季度, 招商银行整购北京市月坛南街金融中心 4 号写字楼, 交易总价约为人民币亿元另外, 北京华融综合投资公司订购金融街广安中心 B 地块 1 号楼写字楼及相应配套设施, 暂定总价款为人民币亿元由于租金水平下调, 甲级写字楼资本收益率继续下滑趋势, 二季度资本收益率环比下降 0.2 个百分点到 6.4% 第二季度, 绿地中心保利国际广场和达美中心集中入市位于望京区域的绿地中心取得了 69,422 平方米的销售业绩, 占第一季度销售面积总量的 29.6%, 销售均价每平方米人民币 3.2 万元位于亦庄的君安国际于二季度实现销售面积 12,217 平方米, 销售均价环比上涨 9.4% 至每平方米人民币 2.5 万元 12

13 KnightFrank.com.cn 写字楼主要租赁成交, 2013 年第二季度区域市场项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 租户中央商务区 LG 双子座 630 北辰传媒东二环莱佛士 1,200 信达资产管理东二环东方广场 799 易广电信中央商务区中海广场 900 英美烟草数据来源 : 莱坊写字楼主要买卖成交,2013 年第二季度区域项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 售价 ( 百万元人民币 ) 售价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 东城恒基中心 ,601 朝阳丰联广场大厦 ,978 朝阳望京 SOHO ,227 海淀中坤国际广场 ,030 数据来源 : 中房驰昊 / 莱坊 13

14 2013 年第二季度北京甲级写字楼季刊 Research 研究报告 Research & Consultancy Thomas Lam Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China Jingjing Zhang Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, Beijing Regina Yang Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai Beijing Hengky Nayoan Managing Director Shanghai Graham Zink Managing Director Guangzhou Clement Leung Executive Director 研究及咨询部林浩文董事及研究及咨询部主管, 大中华区张婧婧高级经理北京研究及咨询部杨悦晨董事及研究及咨询部主管, 上海北京何金亮董事总经理上海葛汉文董事总经理广州梁伟明执行董事 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs. Our worldwide research reports are also available at KnightFrank.com. Knight Frank 2013 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要浏览莱坊的全球研究报告, 请登入 KnightFrank.com 莱坊 2013 本文件及其内容只提供一般数据, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知所有图片只供展示用途本文件并不表示意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保因使用此数据而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露 14

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放研究报告 REITs 中国路 2014 年 2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放三十年, 对房托发展至今还未