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1 Research 研究报告 Knight Frank 萊坊 Beijing Prime Office Market Report 北京甲级写字楼市场报告 Q 二零一三年第一季 PRIME OFFICE 甲级写字楼

2 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly HIGHLIGHTS Beijing recorded a 7.9% year-on-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2013 Q1, which was 0.9 percentage point faster compared to the same period of last year, or 0.2 percentage point faster compared to the national average. The strong lift in industrial sector highlighted this quarter, with major drivers from production of cars, electronic equipments and medicals. Outlook China s GDP growth fell short of expectations in the first quarter. However, the slower growth was revealed to be better balanced, with the contribution of consumption outweighing investment in GDP s growth. In Beijing, the economy showed a steady growth in the first quarter, projecting an 8% growth pace for the entire year. Rents of Grade-A offices remained unchanged in the first quarter. The vacancy rate edged up for two straight quarters, which put pressure on rental growth in the future. Beijing Jinyi Building, namely E10 project, in Beijing Financial Street, was launched in the first quarter, adding 23,000 sq m of space to the market. The market vacancy rate increased 1 percentage point to 4.8% due to tenant adjustment. The market had seen the vacancy rate up for two consecutive quarters. However, further increase in the rate is expected to be limited due to small new supply. The average rent of Beijing s Grade-A offices remained unchanged at RMB 396 per sq m per month in the first quarter. Rents in CBD area dipped 1 percentage point, while vacancy rates went up 2.9 percentage point. Other submarkets did not seen significant changes in rents. Due to effects of Chinese New Year holiday in the first quarter, both supply and sales of strata-title Grade-A and B offices slumped, with supply dropping 55.3% to 182,849 sq m, and sales dropping 30.7% to 106,110 sq m. The average selling price edged down 1.3% to RMB31,016 per sq m. The drop in the average price was due to higher proportion of transactions in Fengtai, Yizhuang and other non-core office areas. Rental growth of Beijing Grade-A offices was the slowest in the first quarter since late Although rents remained at relatively high levels in the first quarter, it is expected to fluctuate with changes in vacancy rates. Beijing rolled out new control measures at the end of March to further tighten control on the residential market. Partial purchasing power is expected to shift to the commercial market, which will push up the transaction price and volume of commercial properties. Meanwhile, due to stagnant rental growth, capital yields in the office market are forecasted to decline. In the second quarter of 2013, Runshi Centre is expected to be launched, adding 48,000 sq m of space to the market. 2

3 KnightFrank.com.cn MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS The economy in Beijing showed steady growth in the first quarter and was projected to achieve the 8% annual growth rate target. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Beijing achieved RMB billion in the first quarter, an increase of 7.9% year on year. The GDP growth rate in Beijing was 0.9 percentage point faster compared to the same period of last year, or 0.2 percentage point faster compared to the national average. The industrial sector saw a strong lift in the first quarter. Major drivers came from production of cars, electronic equipments and medicals, which jumped 38.3%, 22.8%, and 15.3% year on year, respectively. Utilised FDI continued with a double-digit growth pace, up 12.9% year on year to US$2.4 billion in this quarter. The consumption market remained stable. Retail sales went up 9.4% year on year to RMB200.9 billion. The growth rate of retails was 4.9 percentage point slower compared to the previous quarter. Much of the slowing down can be attributed to the frugality campaign which hit conspicuous consumption. However, consumers remained strongly confident in economy, with confidence index going up 5.8 percentage point to Beijing s economy has been growing steadily, and is considered highly possible to achieve the 8% annual growth target. Economic indicators, Q Economic indicator Figure YoY change (%) GDP RMB410.1 billion 7.9% Fixed asset investment RMB104.8 billion 12.1% Real estate investment RMB49.4 billion 9.4% Import and export value US$103.2 billion 1.3% Utilised FDI US$2.4 billion 12.9% Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2012=100) Source: Beijing Statistics Bureau / Knight Frank 3

Q1 2013 Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SUPPLY AND DEMAND Vacancy rate edged up for two consecutive quarters. However, the up space is limited due to small new supply.

4 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SUPPLY AND DEMAND Vacancy rate edged up for two consecutive quarters. However, the up space is limited due to small new supply. Beijing Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy Source: Knight Frank Beijing Jinyi Building, namely E10 project, in Beijing Financial Street, was launched in the first quarter, adding 23,000 sq m of space to the market. The market vacancy rate increased a further 1 percentage point to 4.8% due to tenant adjustment in this quarter. The occupancy rate in the Financial Street area remained near 100% and the newly launched Jinyi Building was already fully occupied. In the Lufthansa and Zhongguancun areas, vacancy rates remained at around 4%. In the CBD area, the vacancy rate increased 2.9 percentage points to 5.6%. Due to fast rental increases for Grade-A offices in Beijing, some firms moved out core office areas, which explained the vacancy rate rose up in two straight quarters. However, due to small new supply, the further rising for vacancy rate is set to be limited. Some landlords started tenant adjustment upon contract expirations, thanks to the relatively low vacancy rate of office buildings. Firms which are willing to pay for high rents, such as pharmaceutical companies, investment and consultant firms, moved in. For firms with renowned brand names, landlords may provide rental discounts to keep them in order to improve their image, by taking advantage of the reputation from tenants. In the second quarter of 2013, Runshi Centre in the Lufthansa area is expected to be launched, adding 48,000 sq m of space to the market. 4

5 KnightFrank.com.cn RENT Beijing office rents remained unchanged in the first quarter, and were facing downward pressure in the future. Beijing Grade-A office rent index (2003 Q1 = 100) Source: Knight Frank The average rent of Beijing s Grade-A offices was unchanged in the first quarter of 2013, standing at RMB396 per sq m per month. The average rent in the CBD area dipped 1% to RMB439 per sq m per month. Rents in other submarkets did not show significant changes, while vacancy rates up and down slightly. However, the growth was better balanced, with the contribution of consumption outweighing investment in GDP s growth. Office demand remained strong in Beijing. The average rent remained at a relative high level in this quarter. However, the vacancy rate went up for two straight quarters, which put pressure on the rental growth for the future. China s GDP growth fell short of expectations in the first quarter. Prime office market indicators, Q Submarket Rent (RMB/ sq m/ month) % change (QoQ) Vacancy Rate Vacancy rate percentage points change (QoQ) CBD % 5.6% 2.9 Lufthansa % 3.4% 0.2 Beijing Financial Street % 1.6% 0.3 East Second Ring Road % 2.1% 4.1 Zhongguancun % 4.2% 1.2 Source: Knight Frank 5

Q1 2013 Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SALES AND INVESTMENT Office supply and sales slumped during the first quarter in the traditional low season. The average selling price remained stable.

6 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SALES AND INVESTMENT Office supply and sales slumped during the first quarter in the traditional low season. The average selling price remained stable. Beijing primary Grade-A and Grade-B office sales and prices Source: Holdways / Knight Frank Both supply and sales of strata-title Grade-A and B office slumped in the first quarter, partially due to effects of the Chinese New Year holiday. Strata-title Grade-A and B office sales reached 106,110 sq m, down by 30.7% from the previous quarter and the supply volume dropped by 55.3% to 182,849 sq m. The average selling price of Grade-A and B primary offices dropped 1.3% to RMB31,016 per sq m. The average selling price for single projects remained stable. The drop in the average price was mainly attributed to higher proportion of transactions in Fengtai, Yizhuang and other non-core office areas. Wangjing SOHO was sold for 15,761 sq m, or a total value of RMB 820 million. The average selling price remained the same as the previous quarter of RMB52,000 per sq m. Beijing rolled out new control measures at the end of March to further tighten control on the residential market. Partial purchasing power may shift to the commercial market, which will push up the transaction price and volume of commercial properties. Meanwhile, due to stagnant rental growth, capital yields in the office market are expected to decline. In the first quarter, Junan International in Yizhuang achieved sales volume of 28,437 sq m, which took up 26.8% of the total quarterly sales volume. Its average price reached RMB23,000 per sq m. 6

7 KnightFrank.com.cn Selected office leasing transactions, Q Submarket Building Area (sq m) Tenant CBD WTC Phase III 1,538 Orrick law firm CBD IFC 6,000 Sunshine Insurance Group East Second Ring Road Oriental Plaza 587 Agoda CBD Kerry Centre 410 Heidrick Struggles Source: Knight Frank Selected office sales transactions, Q District Building Area (sq m) Price (RMB million) Price (RMB/sq m) Chaoyang Wangjing SOHO ,795 Xicheng Fuxing Park ,645 Haidian Zhongkun International Plaza ,027 Fengtai Noble Center ,876 Source: Holdways / Knight Frank 7

8 Q Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly 焦点二零一三年首季度, 北京地区生产总值同比增长百分之 7.9, 增速比上年同期提高 0.9 个百分点, 比全国平均高出 0.2 个百分点工业生产强力回升是一季度北京经济增长的突出亮点汽车制造业, 电子设备制造业, 医药制造业是带动工业回升的主要力量未来展望第一季度国内经济增速放缓, 低于市场预期, 然而经济结构更加平衡, 消费对经济增值的贡献已经超过了投资北京市一季度全市经济稳中有进, 且有望实现全年增长百分之 8 的目标第一季度北京市甲级写字楼市场租金保持不变市场空置率连续两个季度小幅上调, 给未来租金增长带来压力二零一三年第一季度, 位于金融街的金益大厦, 即金融街 E10 项目交付使用, 为市场带来 23,000 平方米的甲级写字楼面积受租户调整影响, 写字楼市场总体空置率上升 1 个百分点至百分之 4.8 写字楼空置率已连续两个季度出现环比上升, 然而, 考虑到市场新增供应有限, 预计未来写字楼空置率上升的空间有限第一季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金保持不变, 仍然为每月每平方米人民币 396 元中央商务区空置率上浮 2 个百分点, 租金水平出现了百分之 1 的小幅下跌, 其他区域租金水平变化不大第一季度是北京市写字楼租金增长几近停滞尽管市场平均租金水平仍然保持高位, 但空置率出现上升趋势, 预计未来租金水平将出现波动北京市三月底出台了新国五条细则, 进一步加紧了对住宅市场的调控措施, 预计部分购买力将转入不受限购政策控制的商业地产, 从而促进商业地产的交易价格及交易量上涨同时, 由于租金增长停滞, 预计资本收益率将有所下滑二零一三年第二季度, 润世中心有望交付使用, 将为市场提供 48,000 平方米楼面受春节假期影响, 首季度北京甲级及乙级写字楼供求环比大幅下降, 一手销售面积合计 106,110 平方米, 环比下降百分之 30.7, 同时供应量亦环比下降百分之 55.3 至 182,849 平方米由于首季度主要成交项目位于丰台亦庄等非核心区域, 甲级及乙级一手写字楼销售均价每平方米人民币 31,016 元, 较上季度小幅下降百分之 1.3 8

9 KnightFrank.com.cn 首季度北京经济稳中有升, 有望实现全年百分之 8 的增长目标宏观经济二零一三年首季度, 北京市实现地区生产总值人民币 4,101.2 亿元, 同比增长百分之 7.9, 增速比上年同期提高 0.9 个百分点, 比全国平均高出 0.2 个百分点工业生产强力回升是一季度北京经济增长的突出亮点汽车制造业, 电子设备制造业, 医药制造业是带动工业回升的主要力量, 三个行业按年分别增长百分之 38.3 百分之 22.8 和百分之 15.3 第一季度全市实际利用外资继续保持两位数的增长速度, 同比增长百分之全市消费市场总体平稳, 一季度实现社会消费品零售额人民币 2,008.8 亿元, 同比增长百分之 9.4, 增速比上年同期回落 4.9 个百分点增速的下降主要由于节俭运动使得集体消费被抑制然而消费者对未来经济继续保持较强信心, 消费者信心指数同比提高 5.8 个百分点到总体来看, 一季度全市经济稳中有升, 实现全年百分之 8 的增长目标的可能性较大主要经济指标, 二零一三年第一季度经济指标数值同比增长 (%) 地区生产总值人民币 4,101.2 亿元 7.9% 固定资产投资人民币 1,048.4 亿元 12.1% 房地产开发投资人民币亿元 9.4% 进出口总额 1,032.4 亿美元 1.3% 实际利用外资 24.1 亿美元 12.9% 居民消费价格指数 ( 二零一二年 =100) 数据来源 : 北京市统计局 / 莱坊 9

10 二零一三年第一季度北京甲级写字楼季刊供应与需求北京甲级写字楼空置率已连续北京甲级写字楼供应吸纳和空置率两个季度环比上升, 但由于供应有限, 预计未来上升幅度有限数据来源 : 莱坊二零一三年第一季度, 位于金融街的金益大厦, 即金融街 E10 项目交付使用, 为市场带来 23,000 平方米的甲级写字楼面积由于租户调整, 写字楼市场总体空置率本季继续上升 1 个百分点至百分之 4.8 分区域来看, 第一季度金融街区域的写字楼继续接近满租状态, 新交付使用的金益大厦也已实现满租燕莎中关村区域的写字楼空置率变化不大, 仍保持由于甲级写字楼空置率较低, 租户租约到期后, 写字楼业主开始进行租户调整, 愿意支付高租金的投资医药咨询类公司不断补充进来, 而对于有国际影响力的品牌企业, 业主也会通过一些租金上的优惠来留下他们, 以提高自身写字楼物业的形象和知名度第二季度, 位于燕莎区域的润世中心有望交付使用, 届时将会为市场带来 48, 000 平方米的新增甲级写字楼面积在百分之 4 左右中央商务区写字楼空置率上升 2.9 个百分点至百分之 5.6 甲级写字楼租金近三年快速上涨, 部分企业选择搬出写字楼核心区域, 这也解释了写字楼市场总体空置率出现了连续两个季度的环比上升但是, 由于甲级写字楼市场供应有限, 空置率的上升空间不大 10

11 KnightFrank.com.cn 租金第一季度北京甲级写字楼保持北京甲级写字楼租金指数 (2003 Q1 = 100) 不变, 未来面临下降压力数据来源 : 莱坊第一季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金没有显著变化, 保持上个季度的每月每平方米人民币 396 元一季度中央商务区的租金水平出现小幅下降, 环比跌百分之 1 到每月每平方米人民币 439 元, 其他区域租金水平基本不变, 空置率小幅波动第一季度国内经济增速放缓, 低于市场预期, 然而经济结构更加平衡, 消费对经济增值的贡献已开始超过投资北京市写字楼市场需求保持旺盛尽管第一季度市场平均租金水平保持高位, 但空置率出现上升趋势, 给租金增长带来一定压力甲级写字楼主要市场指标, 二零一三年第一季度商圈租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 月 ) 环比变幅空置率环比变幅中央商务区 % 5.6% 2.9 燕莎 % 3.4% 0.2 金融街 % 1.6% 0.3 东二环 % 2.1% 4.1 中关村 % 4.2% 1.2 数据来源 : 莱坊 11

二零一三年第一季度北京甲级写字楼季刊销售与投资第一季度为传统淡季, 北京写北京甲级及乙级写字楼一手销售额与售价字楼供求环比下降, 销售价格保持平稳数据来源 : 中房驰昊 / 莱坊受春节假期影响, 二零一三年首季度北京甲级及乙级写字楼供求环比大幅下降, 一手销售面积合计 106,110 平方米, 环比下降百分之 30.7, 同时供应量亦环比下降百分之 55.

12 二零一三年第一季度北京甲级写字楼季刊销售与投资第一季度为传统淡季, 北京写北京甲级及乙级写字楼一手销售额与售价字楼供求环比下降, 销售价格保持平稳数据来源 : 中房驰昊 / 莱坊受春节假期影响, 二零一三年首季度北京甲级及乙级写字楼供求环比大幅下降, 一手销售面积合计 106,110 平方米, 环比下降百分之 30.7, 同时供应量亦环比下降百分之 55.3 至 182, 849 平方米从销售价格来看, 单个项目近两个季度销售价格保持平稳, 然而由于首季度主要成交项目位于丰台亦庄等非核心区域, 甲级及乙级一手写字楼平均销售均价每平方米人北京市三月底出台了新国五条细则进一步加紧了对住宅市场的调控措施, 预计部分购买力将转入不受限购政策控制的商业地产, 从而促进商业地产的交易价格及交易量上涨同时, 由于租金增长停滞, 预计资本收益率将出现下降民币 31,016 元, 较上季度小幅下降百分之 1.3 第一季度, 位于亦庄的君安国际取得了 28,437 平方米的销售业绩, 占第一季度销售面积总量的百分之 26.8, 销售均价每平方米人民币 2.3 万元望京 SOHO 本季度实现销售面积 15,761 平方米, 销售额达 8.2 亿元, 销售均价保持在上季度的每平方米人民币 5.2 万元 12

13 KnightFrank.com.cn 写字楼主要租赁成交, 二零一三年第一季度区域市场项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 租户中央商务区国贸三期 1,538 奥睿律师行中央商务区国际财源中心 6,000 阳光保险东二环东方广场 587 雅高达中央商务区嘉里中心 410 海徳思哲数据来源 : 莱坊写字楼主要买卖成交, 二零一三年第一季度区域项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 售价 ( 百万元人民币 ) 售价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 朝阳望京 SOHO ,795 西城复兴园 ,645 海淀中坤国际广场 ,027 丰台诺德中心 ,876 数据来源 : 中房驰昊 / 莱坊 13

14 二零一三年第一季度北京甲级写字楼季刊 Research 研究报告 Research & Consultancy Thomas Lam Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China Jingjing Zhang Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, Beijing Regina Yang Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai Beijing Hengky Nayoan Director, Head of Commercial Services Shanghai Graham Zink Managing Director Guangzhou Clement Leung Executive Director 研究及咨询部林浩文董事及研究及咨询部主管, 大中华区张婧婧高级经理北京研究及咨询部杨悦晨董事及研究及咨询部主管, 上海北京何金亮董事及商业物业代理主管上海葛汉文董事总经理广州梁伟明执行董事 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs. Our worldwide research reports are also available at KnightFrank.com. Knight Frank 2013 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要浏览莱坊的全球研究报告, 请登入 KnightFrank.com 莱坊 2013 本文件及其内容只提供一般数据, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知所有图片只供展示用途本文件并不表示意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保因使用此数据而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露 14

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放研究报告 REITs 中国路 2014 年 2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放三十年, 对房托发展至今还未